Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Fil R
That has been my feeling all day. The PM is yet again being undermined.
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Precisely. It makes no sense. But there is an elephant in the room. I don’t think it is a complete media beat up – although it is certainly being helped along by the MSM, the Libs and other vested interests. I think it is real and it must be dealt with. What’s the best way to do that? If the polls were 52-48 or better then this issue does not become so prominent. When the ALP is 10 points behind and a complete buffoon like Abbott is preferred PM, then things like this are a reality and they get momentum. I agree with Gary that getting on with the business of governing is the best way. But I am not sure, as things unfold, it is the only way. I hope I am wrong. But ignoring the elephant won’t make it go away.
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:37 pm
If you ask rummel to take his pick don’t offer him a shovel.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:37 pm
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Gary,
Finger is well and truly on the button re Carbon Tax.
This is the last ditch effort by the forces of evil to stop/delay the introduction of the Carbon pricing legislation.
Rudd no doubt has sold his soul to these forces if it means a tilt at the Leadership. Just like last time, I suppose.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Didn’t Andrew Bolt comment on secret squirrel polling, if he saw it surely Dennis Shanahan should have.
by ruawake on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Not that simple Triton!! People in older age groups tend to belong more to private health funds but also tend to take a lot more out. Younger and middle aged people pay in but get less out on the basis that they take out when they get old – hence the basis for the lifetime health cover. People who are taking out more than they put in will not leave but those that get less out than they pay may walk.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:39 pm
TLBD
Yes, and it is not secret polling but internal polling.
by Dee on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:39 pm
my say,
Well done but one “wrong one” won’t shift the result significantly.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Oh, come on!
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Rummel is not dumb. Except when he wants to be. He’s actually quite open with his disloyalty to the Lib leadership. Is clearly a Turnbull man who has thus far proven a major political disappointment to the Libs.
He’s having fun at the expense of Labor discomfort and generally, is a good sport.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Of course she is, big money have the shits with her and don’t like what is happening, Robb said he had just finished his 76th board room visit. Trying to undermine a Labor Govt.
Its nothing new, it is what happens to a Federal Labor Govt. Forget the crap – look at the substance.
by ruawake on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Hi Victoria re 745
Only a gut feeling – but if both pieces have ‘substance’ then I can only think it has to come from someone very close, at the time.
Hi Gary re 740
Agree wholeheartedly
by Fil R on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Hi Victoria re 745
Only a gut feeling – but if both pieces have ‘substance’ then I can only think it has to come from someone very close, at the time.
Hi Gary re 740
Agree wholeheartedly
by Fil R on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:43 pm
GG,
rummel is also a bit of a funny man.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Lynchpin,
Who can forget the “greatest moral challenge of our time”. He clearly got all the hard bits done by uttering that statement.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Let me first say that I never saw the replacement of Kevin Rudd coming. Given that let me say I cannot see another leadership change coming now. I think that if a leadership change was in the winds that there would be stories out there saying that the Independents had been approached by Labor as to whether they would support a new leader or would swap their support to the Coalition. If one ignores the circus surrounding Julia Gillard vs Kevin Rudd, to my mind, this has been a very effective Parliament with important legislation being passed and more in the pipeline before the elections in 2013. To change leaders now would be to sacrifice all that has been achieved.
by Scarpat on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:44 pm
ruawake
I agree with you on that, but it has been relentless
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:44 pm
duck,
Peculiar is probably a better word.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Someone on twitter went through the chronology of getting rid of the CT before its implementation, even if an election were to be held in the next month.
Upshot is it’s only possible with Labor support (opposition) in the parliament. Are you suggesting a Rudd-led Labor opposition would vote with the coalition to abolish carbon pricing?
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:46 pm
And in the HoR the filibuster continues. MRRT revisited.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:46 pm
Ducky @ 744
An exercise in hair splitting.
1. She is now PM and people know her as such so it is fair to refer to her that way.
2. So they used the word ‘secret’ when they probably meant ‘private’.
Distinctions without a difference as William was I think alluding.
by bemused on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:46 pm
“He’s having fun at the expense of Labor discomfort and generally, is a good sport.”
Huma aside would you like him taking your daughter to the drive-in on the first date?
by Dr John on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Point taken rummel @724. The meanest intellect gets one vote – obviously including yourself.
Point is of course – careless spelling + careless thinking = nil credibility here for you good self.
Why do you bother?
by Tricot on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Wonderful, ABC24 plays Bishops dimwitted question and not Rudd’s eloquent answer.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:49 pm
PS = “you” in 768 is “your” which is a typo – get the difference?
by Tricot on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Bishop is now denying that her question had anything to do with Rudd v. Gillard.
To her credit Annabel Crabbe asks “Are you seriously suggesting..?”
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Scarpat
Spot on, so my question remains apart from the msm and the coalition willing it to happen, is there anyone in team Labor fuelling the fire?
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Thank heavens all of this shite is coming out now and not during the next election campaign.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Koukoulis asks why the backbench were laughing. Bishop says she doesn’t know.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:51 pm
confessions,
I’m suggesting that Rudd has form on backing away from committments on the environment. If he has to promise that again to get the Leadership, he will come up with the verbal linguistics to achieve same.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Bernardi would be happy. In estimates he hectored Scott over why ABC PM hadn’t reported that Rudd wasn’t told about uranium sales to India. Lisa Singh should’ve followed up with why the ABC more generally ignored the coalition’s NAuru costings coming from a catering company.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Bushfire Bill
Abdulas ,somewhere, sunday Lunch
In Town planespotting
by Joe6pack on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Christ. Bishop is actually making out she asked a serious question.
Than again, she is being interrogated by Crabbe, who famously said, “I’m serious… Kevin and Julie ARE an item!”
Stupid#1 meet Stupid#2.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:53 pm
GG
Seriously, If Rudd did such a thing, Labor would be out of power for a generation.
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:54 pm
It is always relentless, it was for Whitlam, Hawke, Keating, Rudd and it is for Gillard.
It was relentless for Howard and Fraser as well.
Its a tough job for tough people, I reckon we have one of the better ones there now.
2013 is looking better as each month passes.
by ruawake on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:54 pm
GG:
So your thinking is that a Ruddstoration would see Labor (in govt, not opposition) vote with the coalition to overturn carbon pricing?
I’m sorry, but I can’t see it happening.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:54 pm
OK Joe. Ask William to give you my email. I’m starving just thinking of it.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:54 pm
victoria,
I would look to someone in a non-marginal seat that has aspirations for a higher position and has the patience to sit out a term or two in Opposition…
by Scarpat on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Dr John,
Rummels about 110.
My daughters (of which there are many) have no interest in my advice about their love life or their choice of movies.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Agree with that one Gary. Who actually gives a toss now?
I note the 4C thing has already disappeared from many news web sites. Such is the urgent need of the media to keep finding something new.
by Tricot on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Look at the clip. Abbott was laughing his hairy tits off!
On the evidence of The Drum appearance Mesma is a bald-faced liar.
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:56 pm
So the question is, why is the Labor Leadership pandering to this man who can only guarantee loss of Government in both the short term and the long term?
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:56 pm
rua,
on the assumption that we live in a rational world, I agree with you.
by Scarpat on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:56 pm
I do not agree that I’m splitting hairs with “internal” and “secret”: “secret polling” implies nefarious intent, “internal polling” doesn’t. Think “internal memo” and “secret memo.”
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:56 pm
ruawake
Your commonsense viewpoint gives me a little teeny bit of comfort. But to be totally honest, i am feeling like a nervous nellie
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Hi Greensborough Growler re 775
So if you are correct about Rudd backing away from Carbon Pricing to win over caucus votes, doesn’t that imply that the caucus has an anti-carbon pricing majority? Otherwise how could he hope to win them over?
F
by Fil R on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:57 pm
To those within the ALP that are so determined to undermine the Government:
Please, for the good of the Country, desist of all this nonesense. The working people of Australia cannot afford Abbotts vision of Australia. Already 40% of Australian Workers are either employed as Casuals, or Underemployed as Part-Time Workers.
Our Environment cannot afford Mr Abbotts pledge to roll back carbon pricing.
Our Economy cannot afford a Government that would play favorites with the Mining Industry at the expense of all other Industries, especially manufacturing.Nor should the miners be allowed to get away with avoiding their taxation obligations.
We cannot afford to sacrifice our Future prosperity, by rolling back the NBN and denying us basic the technological infrustructure needed to participate in the comming economy.
The Future of our Childrens Nation is too important to allow your petty and juvinile power-plays.
PULL UP NOW !!!!
by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:57 pm
We have rational voters who vote for their best interests. Politics made easy.
by ruawake on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:59 pm
GG
Sorry explain the Labor leadership and which man are they pandering too?
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:59 pm