Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
al palster
Did Speers say why it was leaked?
by victoria on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:30 pm
I hope that’s the case, but I dunno, the combination of his ego and his desperation to prevent JG having ‘clear air’ is pretty destructive.
by rishane on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Arrr I’ve missed that
Takes me back to the bad ole days of Unce Howie
by vera on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Vic,
yes – Officials in PM and C couldn’t stand Rudd and the influence of his personal offfice.
by al palster on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:31 pm
rishane
I will be extremely shocked if Rudd calls a challenge. He is nothing if not a coward
by victoria on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:31 pm
al palster
There we have it. Rudd had better watch out. His little victim and vegemite act is going to become undone. He has been warned
by victoria on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:32 pm
It wouldn’t surprise me if Rudd won on the first ballot.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Bemused – This country faces serious economic issues yet for the past few months we have had Mr Rudd focusing more on undermining the leader, potentially distracting her and partly leading to a media focus that I think maybe partly to blame in the lost of confidence in the business community.
I think if Rudd returned to the leadership then this country needs an election to clear the air, we need a strong and commented team working as one, yes we accept that not everyone on a team will always like one another but it is quite clear that this government is every bit as divided as the Liberals were during the Howard/Peacock days.
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Gary Sparrow
Odds?
by CTar1 on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:35 pm
GS
The media has been trashing this government since Feb 2010, I do not know what planet you are on, but it is obviously NOT this one!.
Don’t mention the Pink Batts because the responsibility of installing them was the installing companies, you would have to be a simpleton to blame the government!.
by 1934pc on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
hi Vera, welcome back.
gillard may well win a challenge, but the war will be lost. her polls already a disaster for so long ain’t going to recover after this mess. I certainly don’t by the myth that she something. special in comparison to other talent in the party. what has surprised all is her amateur leadership and political ability, both necessities in any top job. does not meet selection criteria really.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
mexicanbeemer
Beemer,take a trip over to planet Pies or planet BoltA.Over there the media are still in the thrall of pinko socialist journos.
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
1934pc
The Pink Batts problem – JWH gutted the PS of it’s ability to run these sort of programs.
by CTar1 on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:38 pm
vera
Yes you are right – he had already hit bottom by that time and was on the rise again. There was gossip that the internal polling was disasterous, but I think the public polling was as you said.
by Oscar on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:38 pm
I think the media tone may have started to change as early as Oct 2009 but it was clearly different post Feb.
Rudd had the opposition on its knees and had reason to go to the polls for a DD but backed down creating a vibe of weakness that in all frankness has been confirmed by his behavior ever since that time.
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:39 pm
hi Thomas
Thought you’d be at the do in Darwin today
You could of got Gillard’s autograph
You would have got a good price for it here at PB
talking of odds Centrebet has Rudd $1.90 to Gillard $2.60 to be ALP leader at the next election
by vera on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Cheers Oscar
by vera on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Evan it is so sad to see you a shadow of your former good self. Like you, I think removing Rudd was wrong. Unlike you, I dont take glee in every bit of negative Labor press. I dont want to see the Liberals in government (remember how much you hated Howard). And surely you realise that the Rudd destabilisation harms Labor so much.
At least, please, take the LABOR out of your name
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Hi mexicanbeemer 7659
Am I correct that if Labor had have called a DD in February 2010, then there would have to be a half Senate election by July 2012?
F
by Fil R on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Just how long can the queen run around with no clothes? Me thinks mid year.
And the pink bat policy- quite good except for the fact that the gov trusted unscrupulous installers. Don’t they now that most peeps are greedy! they should have given a rebate after it was installed let people negotiate etc.. no waste no fuss money spent, installation installed, energy bills and CO2 emissions reduced!!
by centaur009 on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Bemused – How will Rudd avoid being beaten up by Tone.
Tone had the upper hand over him
How does Rudd avoid it becoming a contest between a man v boy
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:44 pm
CTar1
The real pink batts problem were the “sainted” small business owners who flouted long established occupational health and safety laws.
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Hi Fil R
I believe that is correct.
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:45 pm
vera and Oscar, you guys know we can drop the charade that Rudd was removed because of polling, cant we?
He was 52/48. with the benefit of incumbency and his proven campaigning skills, he would have won IMO.
He was removed because he was hated. Polls were just the excuse. Just as they will be with Abbott eventually
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:45 pm
TP
So it’s a hopeless case in your opinion, so they should throw in the towel and give UP!.
Our PM is made of sterner stuff than that!.
The opposition is by no doubt the WORST if have experienced in 35 years, one heap of rabble with a nut case in charge!.
by 1934pc on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:46 pm
In SOME states.
Like the BER, everything ran very smoothly here in SA, where we have good laws and where the programmes were well managed
by Danny Lewis on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:48 pm
poroti @ 7666
That I’d agree with as well. Feral dogs come on down.
by CTar1 on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Oscar @ 7639
The media is a given and it has been ever thus. You have to learn to deal with it and do your best to overcome it’s hostile bias.
The joke when Whitlam was PM was that if he walked across lake Burley Griffin, the headlines the next day would be “Whitlam Can’t Swim!”.
Has anything really changed?
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Thanks mexicanbeemer
so there’s at least a longer term strategic view that calling a DD in Feb 2010 would have left a Labor government facing either a half senate election (with history generally showing that these give anti government results) or having to find another reason for an early HoR elections as well.
F
by Fil R on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Me, not to much. There has been a lot of maneuvering by all sides going on, particularly the MSM. With people starting (hah!) to be getting a bit sick of the whole circus, i suspect that the MSM believe the Ruddstoration is fast approaching its use by date.
If there is going to be any “juice” in this meme then they want at least a temporary resolution.
I don’t think Gillard will be spooked into declaring a spill and those suggesting she will resign are, frankly, delusional wishful thinkers (and i use the term thinker loosely in this context).
As i see it the pressure is really on Rudd, and to some extent his backers. The MSM would really like this to get resolved before the QLD election as that will provide endless opportunities for navel gazing belly fluff analysis on how it affected the QLD election. That’s the scenario where the media get the most value out of Rudd.
If he doesn’t challenge pre-budget AND the ALP delivers a surplus budget then i think we can probably write him off, and if he lets it go without action to July when the Carbon Price and MRRT come in then i’d think he’s out of contention for good.
If the ALP go into the 2013 election and lose, then i’d think a bit of the blame will get laid at Rudd’s door for his destabilization to date impeding the ALP getting its messages out so he’s be out of the running to become the next ALP LOTO as well.
Nah, if Rudd wants to move, its got to be pre-May.
by imacca on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Maybe he can arrange Peter Hartcher and Shaun Carney to do it for him?
But really, he probably sees himself as gaining by the current events anyway. Its not his PM-ship at stake.
by rishane on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:53 pm
victoria @ 7649
Why should Rudd call a challenge if he is not ready?
If Gillards supporter want to bring something on they can by moving a spill.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:53 pm
bemused
We know he was God!
by vera on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:53 pm
immacca @ 7674
How much damage wil he do or how much damage Gillard will do putting him down is the question.
by CTar1 on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Said recent events also put this from a couple of months ago into more perspective:
[Last weekend, more details emerged about Mr Rudd's mood after Ms Gillard's conference speech, in which she proclaimed that "we follow [the Labor way] simply because we are us” and “Labor says yes to Australia’s future”.
The Sunday Telegraph reported that he joined a group of journalists in a Sydney bar that evening and, apparently reckless of the consequences, ridiculed Ms Gillard’s “Toys R Us” speech – a reference to the infelicitous phrase “we are us”. Then, lifting his middle finger aloft in a rude gesture, he declared: “F**k the future!”
Mr Rudd also joked that he had been deleted from history in a way reminiscent of North Korea, the border of which he recently visited. There, former leaders were literally airbrushed from photographs, he noted.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/gillard-shuffles-the-deckchairs-to-ward-off-rudd-rebellion-6276165.html
by rishane on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:55 pm
bemused
gillard delivered Rudd the numbers when he became Leader of the party. gillard had the numbers to rid of him. Enough said
by victoria on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:56 pm
She might call a spill when he’s out of the country next week!
That’d fix him
by vera on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Mexicanbeemer @ 7652
I disagree on both points.
Rudd has simply had to perform competently and watch Gillard self-destruct.
If Rudd can govern effectively then there is every reason to do so to bed in the big reforms and put the Gillard experiment in the past.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Apologies if already posted
Dennis Atkins take on things
…
http://www.couriermail.com.au/spike/columnists/rudds-betrayal-could-give-gillard-lifeline/story-e6frerff-1226274944192
by madcyril on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Danny Lewis
Not even “some states”.Of the four deaths three were electrocuted in Queensland and one died of heat in NSW. That the three electrocutions happened in Queensland may be a coincidence or indicitive of something else .
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:58 pm
1934pc @ 7654
And Rudd blundered big time on that one by not mounting a proper defence.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 2:59 pm
1934pc
agreed! and as for rudd calling a challenge, he like costello won’t have the guts unless he has the numbers and he hasn’t – not by a long way, the only reason he was able to challenge beazley was because of the support brought to him by gillard – she is one strong, determined woman and i believe she will win any spill or challenge and lead the party to the 2013 election and win it! btw – wilkie is a joke, well, more a laughing stock.
by Lyne Lady on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:00 pm
vera
Julia Gillard should “task” him with negotiating a free trade agreement with Somalia and North Korea. It should keep him “otherwise occupied”
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:01 pm
LL
Wilkie is hilarious. He admits this morning that he was talking to Rudd back in November and said he would support him if he returned to the leadership. he wonders why Gillard pulled the pin on their deal. laughing stock indeed
by victoria on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:02 pm
mexicanbeemer @ 7665
Rudd slayed Tone in a debate on Health policy IIRC.
Yes, it will be a contest between a man (Rudd) v a simian boy (Tone).
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:05 pm
victoria
I gave JG the thumbs down for not sticking to her agreement with Wilkie. Listening to Wilkie today I now say “Ya boo sucks” to Wilkie.
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:06 pm
That happend under the supervision of installing companies who have the responsibilty to
ensure the installations are done correctly, to blame the government is stretching the envelope!.
by 1934pc on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Wonder if Mr Hodges who was a former Rudd staffer was doing his former master’s bidding on Oz Day. It seems that Rudd’s disloyalty can be interpreted in so many situations now. Well done Mr Rudd
by victoria on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Speaking on the betting markets, Isn’t that just reflecting on what people put on, as was explained to me(I know nothing about betting and odds) before the last election, the odds were less if you bet on ALP as more people thought they would win, but if someone comes in and puts a big bet on, it skews the betting market, so don’t really take too much notice of betting odds, would imagine not much would be put on yet?
by mari on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:07 pm
bemuse
It wont be a contest between Rudd and tone, and probably not even Gillard. The political landscape is going to change this year.
by victoria on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:10 pm