Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Thomas Paine
MY DOG !!! Politics involves “power” ? Who could have known ?
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:36 pm
meant :”You can’t have a leadership change without some disloyalty”
by JohD on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:36 pm
arbib, feeney, farrell and all the other tea leaf reading nothings in the ALP would be shaking in their boots at the moment as they can see their grip on power slipping out of their hands. no more arguments about the faceless men running things once rudd is restored to power.
by the spectator on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:37 pm
You seem to be the one with the hysteria, TP …
Gillard can keep a minority government functioning. She has demonstrated that.
Rudd couldn’t even keep a majority government functioning. He demonstrated that as well.
by Oscar on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:38 pm
1934pc @ 7712
Then why has it now come out that here involvement commenced weeks before the coup? Her ill-judged 4C appearance seems to have blown that story out of the water.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:38 pm
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8422112/cadre-of-labor-mps-undermining-pm-emerson
More in the article. Every pre arranged interview with Ministers now featuring the obligatory leadership questions, which then get written up to the possible exclusion of whatever they were there to talk about. The bit about policy very similar to what PM said on 7 today.
by Leroy on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:39 pm
mari – i think it’s a fake he is @KRuddMP
by Lyne Lady on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Now that Wilie has disclosed that Rudd has been actively and personally canvassing for support – even from independent MP’s – the caucus has almost no choice left: the leadership has to be resolved. The open divisions in caucus also mean the matter to be tested and decided.
In my opinion, Rudd has been shown to be utterly disingenuous. His dishonest and disloyal pursuit of his own ambitions has harmed the Government. There is no doubt about that. He should be held to account for his conduct by the caucus and he should be dealt with one way or another.
by briefly on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Doesn’t rudd’s twitter name have *MP* in it?
by dave on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:40 pm
If people in the ALP made the effort to provide feedback to Rudd about his performance and he made little to no effort to changer then just as every employer has the right to remove an under performing employee, the ALP had the right to remove Rudd.
No such thing as a job for life.
We the voters do not expect our political parties to ignore poor performance
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:40 pm
oscar – great observation – can we tweet it?
by Lyne Lady on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Griffith would most certify be lost if rudd. resigned from politics, just because of the backlash added to labor being on the nose, you could also count on other seats being lost as a results too, at the following election. I think people ought to know that it is voters who select mps.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Andrew Leigh has a good sense of humour (cf Leroy’s post #7744).
by Scarpat on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Exactly – doing nothing is not an option. He has been too smart by half.
by JohD on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Sure the old excuse of “they told me to do it” come on. she was preparing speeches, criculating polling etc. If Rudd returns to power this will actually be one of the greatest moments in the history of the ALP. It will be a full frontal assual on the authority of the factions and the faceless men – the Paul Howes of this world. Democracy in action.
by the spectator on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:42 pm
What was the margin, William? And could Labor win it now?
by briefly on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:42 pm
and MPs select the leader not the voters,
by Scarpat on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Meanwhile back in the real world a reminder of really important events in the 21st Century.
Read more: http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2012/02/17/China-to-do-first-manned-space-docking/UPI-93641329505059/#ixzz1mndfMd00
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Pertinent – but irrelevant. Can’t have Rudd destroying the government because removing him might destroy the government.
by JohD on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:44 pm
DISUNITY IS DEATH.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Gary @ 7733
Take your pick, but be consistent.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Um the definition of politics maybe. welcome to the main game they play for keeps on this field.
by the spectator on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Paul Howes as three good reasons to support his right to speak about the PM performance
- ALP member
- Important stakeholder
- Australian voter
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:45 pm
and unity in disunity?
by Scarpat on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:46 pm
the spectator
Always state the accusations as if they were facts, don’t you.
by lizzie on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:46 pm
LL@7755
Be my guest!
by Oscar on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:46 pm
the spectator:
You’re not a member of the party are you.
by Fiz on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:48 pm
1.5 per cent and no.
by William Bowe on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:48 pm
I’m sure TP would agree with this, afterall he was very scathing of Gillard for planning a knifing.
by Gary on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Why doesn’t everyone take a deep breath and shut the f–k up!
by Toorak Toff on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Some here have posted that all the PM has done is to, in effect, implement Rudd’s policy Agenda.
To a large extent, this is true. But lets not forget that it was an agenda that Rudd himself had been unable to pull-off and that she’s the one who has done the hard yards in very trying circumstances (ie, in the face of an unrelentingly hostile press) and also in the context of minority Government.
Gillard has been an outstanding success at implementing Labor Party policy, whereas Rudd was essentially a failure.
So who is the better PM?
To me Rudd in many ways is like the ship’s captain who seemed to know broadly where he wanted to go, but who kept changing course at the first hint of bad weather or difficult shoals ahead. Storm brewing on the Carbon front? Hell, change course. A problem with the ship’s insulation installation? Stop the engines and hang shit on the engineer. Plus he was a tyrant of the Capt Queeg kind and treated the crew like crap. He’d micromanage everyone and everything, then crack-it over something or other and spend days sulking in his cabin muttering about frozen strawberries or somesuch.
In any event, the crew finally tired of the skipper and mutinied, replacing him with the X/O, Lt Gillard.
As it turns-out, she wasn’t fazed by weather or difficult navigation and has managed to successfully steer HMS Labor to each port of call, delivering on each policy initiative in the cargo hold while treating the crew with the respect they deserve and letting them get about their jobs with minimal interference.
But nobody likes a mutiny, particularly so when the mutineers make a better fist of it that the deposed skipper did.
So we’ve had those old farts, Their Lordships of the Admiralty (the MSM) seeking a way to keel-haul Gillard since the took the helm. They’ve worked at this night and day and reckon they’ve finally got a chance.
The only problem is that this particular Navy is a democracy. It’s the crew that select the captain, not their Lordships.
And the crew, certainly the vast majority of them, appear to be happy with her.
by smithe on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:49 pm
After you.
by Gary on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:49 pm
TT yes the footy is back.
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:50 pm
If you are trying to refer to factional leaders outside of Parliament you clearly understand the ALP very poorly.
by WeWantPaul on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:50 pm
http://www.afr.com/p/national/the_private_wars_of_geoffrey_edelsten_iuMMSjE72I32o7uuuJv8xO
good longer article
by Leroy on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Hi vera. Good to see you back on deck.
A couple of questions:
When has JG blamed Rudd?
When has JG blamed the media? Apart from telling them to “stop writing crap it can’t be that hard” at the PC?
When has JG blamed your neighbour’s cat? Picture evidence required
by kezza2 on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Meh. My grievance with Rudd is not that he has been disloyal to Julia Gillard, but that he has been disloyal to the govt and to the Party by actively whiteanting whenever it looks like the govt is getting some clear air.
by Fiz on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Known, verifiable gifts to Mr Lucky on just this one weekend:
(1) Release of Mr Rudd doing destructive boss video.
(2) Mr Cheeseman telling his boss she should go.
(3) Mr Gibbons telling a senior cabinet minister that he is a psychopathic egomaniac.
(4) Mr Wilkie declaring that he is willing to do a deal with Mr Rudd but never again with Ms Gillard.
(5) Mr Emerson stating that there is a cabal of destabilisers working actively to get rid of a Labor Prime Minister.
(6) Mr Beattie stating that the Prime Minister should bring it on to save Ms Bligh.
This is on the public record. I wonder what careless, self-indulgent and destructive blathering has gone on between caucus members and the MSM?
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:53 pm
I thought the same originally, but William put me straight on the definition of what constitutes “politiical debate” these days.
And I must say, it’s been kind of fun simultaneously watching the coalition supporters getting all hysterical because they can sniff blood in the water (even if they’re not quite sure whose it is) plus all the Ruddstoration! supporters imploding as the truth begins to dawn about their “Dear Leader”.
by Oscar on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Ponting scratched around for 7 runs from 26 balls and holed out. Not good.
by BK on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Rudd, oops I mean Ponting, fails again.
by waznaki on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:54 pm
BK
Past his use-by date. Next, please.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm
TT, as I understand it you have 4 options here -
1) Join the conversation.
2) Scroll past any conversation you find boring or whatever.
3) Leave and wait until the posters get on to a topic of your pleasing.
I’m not sure William has given you option of telling people what they can or can’t say. I could be wrong but I doubt it.
by Gary on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Leroy
He must be frequenting the same hair salon as Kevin Andrews. I remember reading several journos commentig about the same exraordinary colour of his hair revealed whenever light shone from behind his head
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Tsk, tsk, swearing and bullying in one sentence! Is someone channelling Mr Rudd?
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Make that 3 options.
by Gary on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:58 pm
spectator @ 7766….sure, politics is a seriously tough pursuit. But Rudd has a problem. He has been saying for months there is no challenge. He stated as much this weekend. And yet he has also been stalking Gillard all along. He has plainly just been lying for months. This is a fatal problem for anyone aspiring to be PM. The office is implicitly based upon trust and confidence if ever there was one. And yet Rudd is clearly a liar. He demonstrably cannot be trusted. And this is not new. Rudd behaved in the same way when he was PM. He placed his own ambitions before his loyalty to his colleagues and before his duty to the country. He is not fit to hold the office.
by briefly on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Labor brought the issue into the open so it would be silly to pretend it isn’t happening. Personally I don’t think this situation is in the best interests of either side of politics. The last thing needed for the country is for Abbott to get a rails run to the Lodge.
by DavidWH on Feb 19, 2012 at 3:58 pm
How much would the polling have to move for Labor to win?
by briefly on Feb 19, 2012 at 4:00 pm
If KR challenges and gets say 30 votes does this convince him he hasn’t got a chance or does he keep campaigning?
He would know beforehand the rough number of votes he would get so a challenge would only be a part in a longer term strategy. The destabilisation would continue.
If JG calls a spill and KR gets 30 votes, would it stop him? My guess is no.
IMO either way the problem would not go away unless KR resigns, is booted out of ALPin which case he continues revenge from the backbench or another job is found for him.
Pity he doesn’t have the integrity of say Bill Hayden.
by RNM1953 on Feb 19, 2012 at 4:00 pm