Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BK – David Miles …
by CTar1 on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Good O .I fly in sat. and leave mon. so should be good. look forward to it.
William can I have BB email please.
by Joe6pack on Feb 14, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Ducky
Just proving a point
by my say on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:00 pm
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/6873887049/in/photostream
George you have done it again, this one is so good
by mari on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:00 pm
The PM has admitted that polling came to her on a regular basis. She has never said that the polling was not passed on to caucus members.
If it is internal poling why should it be kept from caucus ?
Hit them with that.
by Doyley on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Yes, it does get you down. I think we all feel it (and thanks rummel for reminding us – we’ll do the same for you some time). But the way I looks at it is this.
1. Surely they have now fired off everything they have regarding Rudd. What else could there possibly be?
2. It’s still relatively early in the electoral cycle and there’s plenty of time to recover. Imagine how much worse it could have been if they had held it over until the election campaign. Remember how damaging the leaks were in 2010.
3. The old saying “a week is a long time in politics” is still true. Remember how the Liberal party tore itself apart at the end of 2009 and we all assumed they would be anihilated in 2010. They were a laughing stock but in the end the laugh was on us. There is still a lot of politics to play out before the next election and a lot of it is going to favour the government.
4.Given the resolve with which the indies have reminded the government that their deal is with Gillard and that they will withdraw their support if she goes, the Rudd devotees are pissing in the wind IMHO if they think this is going to result in a leadership spill. In a day or so it will be back to business as usual, with the government continuing to expose the opposition for the economic frauds that they are.
And one last observation, I doubt that most of the great unwashed would be the least bit interested in this kind of stuff. As someone commented above, it’s just another storm in a teacup. (albeit a very annoying one).
by Darn on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Labor leadership and 4C the first item on ABC news Melbourne.
by triton on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:02 pm
GG:
There may be many reasons Labor MPs are allegedly pandering to Rudd. If it’s policy related, then I think it’s more plausible to be about the MRRT (yet to pass the Senate) than carbon pricing.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:02 pm
And ABC TV news starts off with SpeechGate.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Everyone feels like that sometimes. I like to think though that the determination of our media friends and co to get Gillard out as soon as possible shows that the initiatives/policies she’s bringing through are fundamentally good ones.
by rishane on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:02 pm
I know. The bit I don’t get is how this disproves the contention that Gillard may have circulated the polling. Are you asserting that only the PM would see such polling? Because if so, you’re wrong. Internal polling is done by the party, which the PM doesn’t own.
Thanks for that. As noted, any polling would have been conducted by the ALP.
by William Bowe on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:03 pm
*sighs*
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:03 pm
G Growler (and very apt for drive-ins)
As an aside the closest drive-in to Greensborough in the ‘old days” was Preston, is it still there?
The only one I am aware of these days is Dromana.
I did some ‘pulling’ at the Heidelberg Town Hall and discos in Kew but for another time.
by Dr John on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Fil R,
Any follower of the polls will know that Labor’s support tanked after Gillard announced she was introducing Carbon Pricing. The lack of detail allowed Abbott to run his fearsome scare campaign and the poll results atm are entirely a result of this.
Rudd could say I will call a moratorium or delay the introduction because of the economic climate.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Which would be exactly what big business wants.
by rishane on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:05 pm
The big story is already disappearing from the news sites, the Health Rebate bill will be passed tonight and the election is a long way away, so hopefully this will make you feel better, go onto Twitter and see Mike Kelly’s tweets to us also have a look at George’s latest effort (798) that will make you make you laugh
by mari on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:05 pm
More a problem of your inability to differentiate between ‘what might be’ and the reality now, GG. But generally, the idea of going out of your way to piss the greens off is political suicide for labor, despite how hairy chested it makes right wingers like you feel.
by joe2 on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Greensborough Growler
Yes he could say that – but if the majority of the caucus support carbon pricing, how does it help him win votes from Gillard?
F
by Fil R on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:07 pm
William,
My point one was a bit of hair splitting. I’m not contesting the veracity of either point (because I don’t know) but in saying that it is the PM and not the DPM brings it into the present. It is the crap use of language, intentional or not, that gives me the irrits.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:08 pm
GG
Rudd would immediately lose support of the Greens in the senate and Bandt in the HOR, not to mention the other indies. The whole thing defies any logic
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Dr John,
The Preston Drive In is now a housing estate. Thomastown is a franchise business extravaganza.
Heidelberg Town Hall was the best dance venue in Melbourne in the good old days.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Mick@972 – From the heart and singing my song.
It is important to note that according to something I read just recently – was it here on Crikey? – the lower the household incomes went, the stronger was the support for Labor and JG. Conversely, the higher the incomes, so the support fell away.
It is this group which badly needs Labor in office as they would not get the pickings of the noses of the conservatives. Pardon my crudity.
Question: Who really supports Abbott? Certainly not middle or lower end paid Oz. Do we really believe the Top End of Town give a rat’s a…… about this group?
The group which depresses me the most is the Alf Garnett/Archie Bunker voter – and they exist in the US as well as here, who somehow think the conservatives will look after their interests. The working class conservative (not the social kind) has always puzzled me.
by Tricot on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:09 pm
But Chris we have already seen footage of Tone dog-whistling.
by joe2 on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:09 pm
That’ll teach me not to give chapter and verse first up.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Oh dear the media fucks up again, sorry for the strong language but they are crap.
by ruawake on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:11 pm
ABC Cbr News introduced Bishop Maldives question as ‘baiting Kevin Rudd’.
by CTar1 on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:11 pm
I’ve always thought that’s the whole hidden point of all the RUDDSTORATION crap. Rudd couldn’t handle the current minority situation for a variety of reasons, so any change to him would instantly result in an election and probable Liberal government. Which is what a lot of people promoting the Rudd thing want.
by rishane on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:12 pm
CTar1,
But but, it was a serious question!
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:12 pm
I reminded him that he should go for a DD. If only he had listened to me he still be the PM.
by The Finnigans on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Sorry TLBD, I misunderstood you in relation “Gillard wasn’t PM”.
by William Bowe on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:13 pm
CTar1,
Glad I switched it off after 60 seconds.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:14 pm
ruawake
Your language was most restrained considering the degree of misrepresentation of the deal in the msm.
by poroti on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:14 pm
GG what makes you think any one is pandering to any one
This will drift in to the ether like the last
Crisis the one, ‘ before that and that,
now what was that, i know i wrote 75 emails to members reminding them of their
Loyalty the day the editors ect said it was on’,, BS i heard from wttefrom those who replied
I am still scratching my head wondering what that was about , about 3 weeks ago
Course to save face wtte
Na we new it wa s going to happen,
This little game will be played and played, they think one will crack
by my say on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:15 pm
rishane,
There would be 3-5 immediate resignations and Labor would immediately lose it’s majority and cop a shellacking at the bi elections.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:16 pm
“Political Secret Polling” is an oxymoron
by The Finnigans on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:16 pm
As far as I am aware, there is still a drive-in at Coburg.
by Darn on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:17 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:17 pm
I think compensation for Carbon comes in May.
3 months of everything the anti forces can throw.
This is a well coordinated campaign with 3 possible scenarios
*either a message to ALP wtte stop the Carbon plan and we will back off
*or try to get govt to crack, change leader( who accepts idea that CT is to go)maybe lose support of Indies and subsequent election
* push JG to a point of reprimanding KR who spits dummy
On points 1 and 2 a big question is who would take on the job? Couldn’t really be KR who supported the concept so strongly in the first place.
If govt can hang in there, then after May advertising can start — given role of MSM this may be the only way to get message out. At the same time as much as I would like to see govt “kick some ass” not really worthwhile firing shots too early. It may all come down to the timing.
I console myself by going back to comments of Windsor and Oakey. They seem to be semi impartial observers and they have no time for the MSM beat ups doing the rounds.
by RNM1953 on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Mick Collins @ 792
I think your appeal is addressed to no-one.
ALP members will have their differences but I cannot imagine any wanting to undermine the government.
I certainly would not accuse those I disagree with of such a thing. We simply have different views of what best serves the interests of the government.
by bemused on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:18 pm
TLBD – I don’t know if they can guillotine this debate or if they want to. Tanya Plibersek was saying at lunchtime that she was confident but that it might not happen tonight. Can’t be bothered watching them at it!
by CTar1 on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:19 pm
No which I tweeted back No thanks to your invitation to watch 7.30 report, I would rather watch grown up TV
by mari on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Exactly. Which is why it keeps being ‘encouraged’. I wasn’t fully listening to 7, but I also believe they made no mention whatsoever of the PHI stuff, because you know, who cares about actual news when you can talk some more about poor Kevin Rudd?
by rishane on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Darn
Correct. Still a drive in Newlands Road Coburg, not far from the former Pentridge Prison
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Tricot
Yep, the Willfully Ignorant Bogans.
Hate the PM becuase of her genda
and Love Tony because of his boganboy image, oh and cause he legitimises and validates their bigotry
by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:21 pm
It used to be that the Minister for Foreign Affairs (a quaint title) would keep the shadow informed as a matter of course. Have things changed? Is JB now out of the loop?
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:21 pm
GG:
Now you are saying Rudd deliberately bring down a Labor govt! I’m not saying I necessarily disagree with this, but it does seem counter-productive for him to be Restored! (cue suitable Hallelulah-like background music), only to engineer his own downfall as PM.
I think it’s much more likely that a Ruddstoration would result in a cowed, fearful, do-nothing govt, limping along to the next election where it would get caned. I am much more hopeful with the current govt, which even if it does get caned next year, is at least doing things.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Peta Credlin?
by ruawake on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:22 pm
rummel@701
rummel, you are very funny. I think it’s you who has two more years of heartburn to look forward to …
CEF … passed
MRRT … passed
PHI … passed
NBN … passed
I can stand two more years of this if the only downside is having to listen to people like you spouting nonsense about the Labor leadership. If that is the cost of having a party with real policies running the country, then BRING IT ON!
While we’re at it, let’s see what might be next next …
Media ownership reform?
Politicial donation reform?
Medicare reform?
Childcare reform?
I’m sure your liberal party mates will absolutely love it when some of these are brought into parliament and passed. Do you think they will stand by and let Abbott spend two more years wandering around in his underwear pointing to the horizon and shouting “LOOK … BOATS!”
rummel, you have made my day!
by Oscar on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Leadership speculation has not only caused us much angst but has starved the big end of town of any oxygen whilst the legislation train keeps rolling on.
by Dee on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:22 pm
If Tanya has the numbers they can. Prolonging it would rub salt (hee hee).
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 7:23 pm