Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Andrew @ 7986
Seems to be a bit of a leap of logic there.
Maybe he just said wtte “nothing to do with me mate, I can deal with either of you.”?
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:26 pm
I don’t know how I got to watching this today but wow, Liberace could certainly tickle the ivories!
http://au.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?p=liberace&fr=my-myy&toggle=1&cop=&ei=UTF-8
by BK on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Taking seemingly disconnected snippets, hints and allusions perhaps there is the makings of a theory which would explain what is happening.
It is not about ideology. It is not about class war. It is not about left v right.
It is pure personality politics like we have never seen it before in Australia.
References to ‘cults’, ‘dear leader’, ‘Ruddistas’ ‘Gillardistas’ would all tend to reinforce such a construction.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:27 pm
BW@7909
I think we are “ad idem” as they say on this topic.
I agree, incidentally, with your timetable. It will not be until a feed of humble pie/common sense is had before anything serious happens.
Give him his due, I think Rudd could see the future outside the factions but like Keating maybe a bit to far ahead of the pack on this one.
His stance is one other reason why his reinstatement, unless Labor really becomes desperate and dateless at some future point in time, is not going to happen.
by Tricot on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Wash socks in calico bag, with draw string
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:27 pm
BK
So you went from that Sherriff to Mr Liberace and you don’t know how you did it?
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Summer has finally arrived in Syddernee.
Hoorah!
by Henry on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Well can I just say right now, David, there’s no ‘challenge’
Does that means it wants to say it NOW or theres no challenge NOW
Mmmmm
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Look bemused, Im don’t think there’s a vast gulf between our views. We’re both Labor rusted-ons. It’s just that I think Gillard has done a terrific job, given the hand she was dealt and should remain leader.
Sure the polls are shit.
But NSW style ‘revolving door leadership’ isn’t the answer. That sort of thing didn’t work in NSW and it won’t work Federally. IMHO good policy and effective public policy implementation is the only way out.
Bugger the press. They’ve just made themselves look as irrelevant as they actually happen to be.
And if in the end good policy and governance it isn’t enough and labor loses in late 2013, at least the post 2007 Labor Governments (of both Rudd and Gillard) will have cemented in place a whole raft of policy initiatives that Dawkins himself will have trouble repealing.
The Carbon Scheme, MRRT, Income Tax reforms, NBN and other initiatives will be here to stay. The egg just can’t be unscrambled.
by smithe on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:29 pm
Don’t wash socks.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Puff,
Just read your post on socks. Hilarious. Lack of variety it is!
by Space Kidette on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:31 pm
SK
sockpegs, huh? ain’t science wonderful?
But will the socks agree to wear them
by lizzie on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:31 pm
wear thongs
by gusface on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:32 pm
My oh feels rudd is going away more than other foreign ministers he can remember
Says he should have his wings clipped.
Trouble is i said he would do more snipping,
Here , but then wnen u are on the mobile phone the other end of the world its not seen,
As for wilkie see my previous post seems the people of denison are second on the list
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Lizzie,
by Space Kidette on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Henry @ 7993
Don’t you think Rudd would prefer to have the Qld election out of the way prior to any challenge?
I think the dwindling band of Gillard supporters are pushing for a challenge now to cause Rudd maximum embarrassment along the lines you are suggesting.
I can see no reason why Rudd would want anything to happen now, opening up accusations about the Qld election.
Rudd doesn’t have to lift a finger. It is all being done for him by JG.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:33 pm
BoerWar slipped in his usual type of trash comment on Australians in WW2 earlier. Boering.
by CTar1 on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:33 pm
my say,
To be fair, the world is for the first time in history getting close to be a global market place.
by Space Kidette on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
If you waded through Insiders you would become somewhat useful to this forum.
by ShowsOn on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
My Say
The idea behind releasing that tape was to make himself look like one of the guys.
Remember when Howard did a number on Rudd & Scores?
It worked in reverse! People said he looked human.
Same tactic being used with this tape.
I’ve already seen comments to this effect! ‘What’s the problem?’ ‘At least he comes across human unlike the Robotic Gillard’.
by Dee on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
bemused
you are deluded – and you post absolute rubbish!
by Lyne Lady on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
b
So, why does he?
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
In other words catholic marriages are made in heaven
Sorry could not resist that
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Bemused – actually I should clarify my correction – I just checked wikiquote, and it is certainly true that Blaise Pascal is the prominent source for this quote in modern times:
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Blaise_Pascal
However, it also references a discussion webpage that comments that many famous writers are mentioned as sources for this line, but attributes the basic joke all the way back maybe even to Cicero.
Damn Romans, what have they ever done for us?
by Jackol on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
briefly
I believe he only met her twice. He left his minders to “vet” her.
by Diogenes on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:35 pm
But in politics perception is everything, and most people couldn’t care less about how effective Gillard is at getting things through parliament, all they see is her mistakes, and the thought that she is still beholden to the Greens and Independents.
by ShowsOn on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:35 pm
can we all have a group hug?
there are so many angry bears here its getting very snarky
by gusface on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:35 pm
But are those twitters only planting seads
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:37 pm
gus,
I’m really very angry about my socks!
by Space Kidette on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:37 pm
smithe @ 8003
Exactly! Which is why I think people talking about Stephen Smith or others are just plain wrong.
There is a stark choice between 2 contenders.
BTW, we don’t have to agree to remain on friendly terms and I appreciate the fact you appear to operate on the same basis.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Like many on this board i’m very scared of the thought of Tony Abbott as PM. So scared in fact I saw my analyst. He stroked his goatee learnedly and opined “Did you not vote for Mark Latham, he of the arm breaking, camera smashing violent bullying anger”….”Well yes I replied”…and did you not vote for Kevin Rudd he of the narcissistic bullying anger towards his perceived underlings”….well yes I did vote for him…….”yet you are scared of Abbott?. I think this is a classic case of ALPnesia…well documented in Oliver Sacks book”The Man who Mistook an ALP leader for a Decent Bloke”……….Look it can be cured, but I suggest you don’t spend 8 hours a day on Poll Bludger with the other infected souls”
by zimmerman on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:38 pm
CTar1
Here are the tests for whether my statements are trash or the historical truth: Name:
(1) one other event in which Australians demonstrated greater mass cowardice than they did in the Adelaide River handicap. First prize went to the chap who managed, during wartime, to get to Melbourne within 11 days.
(2) one other event in which Australians participated in a greater looting event than they did in Darwin following the first bombing raid. (Hint: soldiers looted, inter alia, kiddies toys. The extent of demoralisation and degradation was demonstrated by soldiers who stole chidrens’ toys from bombed buildings.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:38 pm
if we extract the emotion
KR wants to be PM (allegedly)
JG wants to stay PM (true)
TA wants also to be PM (true)
AW wants to throw shit at whoever he can (true)
The MSM thrive on confusing the above options
by gusface on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:39 pm
zimmerman,
No one ever accused Gillard of being a good bloke.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Lyne Lady @ 8105
So that I can know what you are on about, what post do you refer to? I have made a few today.
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Cf 8026: And the GG reckons that this was ‘national building’. Give me a break.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:40 pm
spaceK
thats what i was talking about
by gusface on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:40 pm
bemused – 8010
by Lyne Lady on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Jackol @ 8018
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:41 pm
No bemused I don’t agree.
Qld labor will lose and lose big time.
KR has made a big deal of his appearances up there.
Campbell Newman will win Ashcroft.
The KR influence is nil and he knows it.
He is not a great campaigner and knows it is best for him to challenge before the election as he will be associated with the shellacking up there.
by Henry on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:42 pm
bk – really wish george would come back..
by Lyne Lady on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:42 pm
BoerWar – Stick it.
by CTar1 on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Bemused
You seem to have this phrase stuck in your mind, as it has been repeated multiple times. Reminds me of the days when talking points were workshopped, and the distributed to the foot soldiers by the general wanting promotion to field marshall.
by sprocket_ on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:42 pm
tom
7963 – nightmares!!!!
by Lyne Lady on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:43 pm
CTar1
Hint: You would need to do compare and contrast with the mass desertion and drunkeness by Australian troops in the face of the enemy on Singapore Island.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:43 pm
The same thing could be said for abbott in little tight pants at the beach,
Kissing fish, ect makes people look human.
Most woman cannot stand that.
Swearing in my opinion should have no excuses its vaulgar
Now i pose the questio n if a female swears f word ect. Its viewed as disgusting and rightly so
If a man does it one of the boys
My son new afte a few times that word was and is not acceptable in our home.
Now he would still get what they call mums look,
So to say well its just human ect
We are comparing male and female
Obviously liberals spreadi g that rubbish
And a pm excuse me mr rudd
Before bemused says anything i did not approve of the other pm who swore either
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:45 pm
CTar1
Twas ever thus when nationalism, national myth making and militarism combine to thwart the historical truth.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Lyne Lady @ 8032
Now, can you tell me why you feel the way you do about what I posted?
by bemused on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Agreed.
Whatever happens in late 2013, I believe the 2007-2013 Labor Governments reformist will hold-up very well in by way of historical comaprison. The NBN alone is easily the equal of anything Gough achieved.
And it will remain, despite Abbott’s ravings.
It’s just too damn popular.
by smithe on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:45 pm
b
u are really skating on thin ice re darwin
wont go into detail, but u are painting a wrong picture of the time
by gusface on Feb 19, 2012 at 6:46 pm