Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Pfft… I have never mentioned any sexual urges. I was quoting.
by Apple Blossom on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:50 pm
The mashups of Rudd are way funnier than the one they did of Abbott to pretend he said nothing and just nodded for 24 seconds.
by This little black duck on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Yes, I was there recently and there is nothing but wall to wall Rajapakse (him and other members of his family!!!) on billboards etc, with fawning media coverage.
Apparently, you can’t change leaders over there unless the leader agrees? How Gillard would have liked to have one of those rules here (then again, she would never have been PM if such a rule existed here!!!)
The roads are much better (although my reference point was a quarter century ago!
by Mod Lib on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Are you sri lankan mod lib? or tourist?
Where did you go?
by wal kolla on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Wal/Mod
Are all the checkpoints with young soldiers toting big guns still present in Colombo?
by shellbell on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:56 pm
It is a question of the lesser evil…..change (which could be welcomed or could backfire)….or trial/retribution/political execution (which will consume all who watch)…..
by briefly on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Im a true blue yew bewt Ocker Maaaaaaaate.
Went everywhere, Colombo, Kalpitya, Dambulla, Trincomalee, Kandy, Bandarawela, Yala, Galle…it was a blast (without any blasts thankfully).
Canned the planned trip to Jaffna given the Aus DFAT travel advice (“Do not go”) but regret it now…
by Mod Lib on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Yes, but now they stand there with pride and confidence.
by Mod Lib on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:57 pm
My Say,
Yes, it’s a worry.
by Scringler on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:57 pm
People are all sorts
by crikey whitey on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Leisure Suit Larry @ 8514
The only time you come on here is when there’s a media drama so if your that embarrassed, piss off……
by Peter of Marino on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:58 pm
I think the general public and some sections of the media have been very unfair to Gillard. They have become fixated on her short comings and have completely ignored her significant policy achievements. She has received zero credit for being able to get so many bills through parliament, but that is par for the course given that most Australians have no idea how policies become law.
While it is clear she has been treated unfairly, that is just how things have gone. Perception is everything in politics, and Gillard is perceived as being dishonest and controlled by the Greens. Rudd may be up himself, but he is frankly one of the most popular politicians in the country, so he has the best chance of making Abbott look like the total extremist moron that he is.
by ShowsOn on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:58 pm
L l l
I thought u where a juno
Some one posted that here
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:59 pm
The dilema is that when and if they come to vote it will be difficult to vote for Gillard knowing that she is dead in the polls and that current events will make it worse. You could vote her back in as PM, but you have that sinking feeling that you will have to do it all again some months into the future and by then things may be a whole lot worse again.
There may be many who want to support Gillard but have to face the reality.
Maybe they will do a deal and Gillard gets a senior position. Which I think Rudd would prefer in anycase, to bring some of her voter base along.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 19, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Scringler
Did you look back at my comment?
Do.
by crikey whitey on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:00 pm
scringler,
I started to write something to you half a dozen times, deleted the lot, all I can say is, Yep, I know, somewhat. hugs.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Oh clearly the best Labor team includes Gillard in cabinet. She did a hell of a job when she was doing both Education and Workplace relations.
But sadly I doubt she would want to remain in cabinet if she loses the leadership.
by ShowsOn on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:01 pm
SO
It didn’t work out so well last time. Why everyone thinks it will be different this time is beyond me.
Rudd flushed a 60-40 lead down the toilet last time. He is no great shakes as a politician.
by Diogenes on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Exactly. She has worked her way through a minefield to get government achievement this far. This is exceedingly heated at present and is exhausting everybody (sorry, imacca, there I go again). But the important thing is (if I am right) this next month or so is the last chance to stop Gillard. After that, they won’t stop her, as acceptance slowly dawns. She has been wounded sometimes but never fatally.
There has been a convergence at present. The big money interests (which includes our shameless media) must dislodge Gillard before everything falls into place. Rudd, if he rates himself a prospect he must move now. He’s gone from a challenge prospect as soon as the Labor support moves upwards, which ought to occur by July. Abbott-Credlin is on the same schedule. So sadly the heat will continue a while longer.
And it has been a long road from the time of the campaign leaks. The formation of a government was drawn-out. Abbott has been trying to take her out ever since and gradually reaching the point of defeat.
I’d really like to get on with my life, but it’s been hard to let this go. We have been on the brink of oblivion for so long. Still she survives and still she delivers.
If we get out the other side, I’d feel that however distantly we are a part of history. It’s incredible that we’re doing so much better than most of the world. Whether it’s a vanity, I like to feel that somehow the old Aussie spirit of fairness has been part of it.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:02 pm
briefly
The country is being run very well indeed, briefly.
See Finns BiSONs
See the legislation passed.
You, in the end, are just repeating the endless leadershit noise/spin to pretend the government isn’t working. It is. EOS.
by kezza2 on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:02 pm
David adds colour glad to see your psssion back david
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:02 pm
David’s passion has just left the building, My Say.
by William Bowe on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:03 pm
lol @ mod lib.. Good work.. Can u speak any sinhala or tamil?
There are much less checkpoints now.. u dont get stopped anymore unless u go to the colombo CBD near the military buildings or out towards kilinochchi and trinco.
by wal kolla on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:03 pm
I was surprised to see briefly is from the other side , did i read that
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Just catching-up again.
Lighten-up comrade. You seem to be trying to prove that David Cameron got it right when he quipped that we socialsist lack a sense of humour.
We do and Boer’s Higgs Sock was rather funny.
And Gorgeous Dunny at 8207:
Yep.
Just like the Dude in The Big Lebowski, she abides (despite being stomped-on by the media from the moment she stepped into the job).
Unlike the Dude, however, she actually gets things done.
by smithe on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:05 pm
ShowsOn,
Even if Rudd is one of the most popular politicians of the economy, I struggle to believe or imagine he will reclaim his role as PM. Let him stick to being Foreign Affairs minister.
by Apple Blossom on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Well didn’t a lot of people say that Labor’s support would tick up last year? e.g. after the carbon pricing got through?
Hasn’t happened. Polls are stuck where they were a month or so after the election.
by ShowsOn on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Question from the new guy
Can someone give me the GDP as the BISONs say
3. GDP Growth 3.5% – The Australian economy is now around 7 per cent larger than it was prior to GFC Mark 1. By way of comparison, most developed countries have gone backward
But someone else is saying
3. GDP Real Growth. 1.8% (2011 est.) 2.7% (2010 est.) 1.4% (2009 est.).
Who is right?
by Shaboh on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Although his article may have me wrong….
http://www.news.com.au/national/changed-man-rudd-says-hes-swearing-less/story-e6frfkvr-1226274914235
by Apple Blossom on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Adow will…. Where is my old sparring partner and mental lightweight Francisco Franco?
by wal kolla on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Prettymuch. And really, what did he do even when he did have the big lead? From most accounts it sounds like his office was chaotic and more obsessed with announcements for good media coverage than getting things done. As others have said, he couldn’t even manage a majority government properly, let alone a minority one.
Also, I think Smith is doing good (and needed) work where he is. Maybe in future he could go higher, but for the moment someone’s gotta clean out the ADF.
by rishane on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:07 pm
If there is a challenge and he loses there is no way he will remain as Foreign Affairs minister.
by ShowsOn on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Well thats ahsame i enjoy reading people that have passion.
Iask u before do journalists , take oaths lie lawyers and dr, to telll the whol e truth nothing but the
The truth when doing there final exams
If not why not
Do u when lecturing advise your students accordingly
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Billbo
Pehaps it is worthwhile showing a current status report on those posters who are on hloidays or seeking useful engagement elsewhere permanently as determined by management. It gets a bit difficult at times if one does not peruse the site 24/7 to know.
by It’s Time on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:08 pm
It is truly amazing that my Kevin 07 shirt still fits.
Not that I could wear it, or even re embroider it.
by crikey whitey on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:08 pm
No he will have to take it like a man go to back bench thats why he never will
Keating did of course my hero
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:09 pm
rishane
I’d be very happy to have either Smith or Combet take over as PM, if it comes to that. I’d prefer it to Rudd.
by Diogenes on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Shaboh
Go to
afrank view
google copy and paste finns puts stuff there
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:11 pm
1.8 + 2.7 + 1.4 makes 6% growth between 2009 and 2011 so 7% might just depend when you start and end the period
by Mod Lib on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:12 pm
That does overlook the fact that Rudd had to get agreement from the greens, ‘fielding and Mr X in the Senate.
Which job is harder: getting legislation through the previous senate or the current reps?
by It’s Time on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Dio
How funny election 10 days later
Abbott
Apoarently the only ind . Dsupporter member for denison
So yes your joking arent u
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:13 pm
I suspect Gillard’s level of support is soft and her bringing on a vote next week will not be a good look and will help Rudd IMHO.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Why would u want a person who likes himself in videos/ that are well not exactly election campaign videos no me not most people i woul d suspect
To run the country
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:15 pm
I take it from that that Mr Denmore (The Failed Estate) and Pure Poison are not on your reading list? They seem to have a different take to you.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:16 pm
my say,
There is a rumour that journos do swear but, as for taking an oath, that is highly unlikely.
by This little black duck on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Gary, you may be right.
But I think you better get 2kg of popcorn and stick to the diet coke – its going to be a long and messy drama.
Wonder what is happening up at camp libs?
by wal kolla on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:17 pm
My Say
The man clearly made a fool of himself. I can’t believe why he would embarrass himself like so.
by Apple Blossom on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Mr ruddd apple will stick to fm
Like glue as he does ot have the numbers want challenge
Could never see himself on the back bench.:-)
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Rishane
It must have been chaotic.
Among his major henchmen was a person I remember as Epstein, an intensely ambitious young man when we met.
Was not surprised in later years to find he was a very senior Rudd staffer, as PM.
Who left, during the alleged Rudd memo fracas, to join QANTAS, I seem to recollect.
Wonder what if anything Labor ethics have to play in this?
Betcha Epstein doesn’t give a fat rats about the workers.
by crikey whitey on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Nah, I think it demonstrates that she realises Rudd’s support is growing so she wants to nip this in the bud.
by ShowsOn on Feb 19, 2012 at 11:19 pm