Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Really cruel stuff happens and it is devastating.
For some us PB oldies, give a thought to Judith Barnes, may she rest in peace.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:14 am
As I said, a year is ample time to to consider the polling, Besides, if they stay the same, Abbott and Credlin-Loughnane are safe. They’re handy assets for Labor and will prevent them developing credible alternative policies.
I just wonder what point there is in moving now, when the only party who doesn’t benefit from a change is governing quite well. You really think current polling is more important than legislative achievement?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:15 am
I suspect it won’t happen for a long time.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/leadership-tensions-at-fever-pitch-20120219-1th9r.html#ixzz1mpiliZni
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:15 am
lefty e,
I was looking forward to 2GB doing a big thing on it.
La Belle Crabb just might, though.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:16 am
I agree. I thought Smith dealt with discussing that situation in a mature and sensible manner, one that indicated he had been happy to serve in the role and would like to continue, but that he recognised the political realities in front of him and was going to act consistently with those.
by Kevin Bonham on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:18 am
Forget about the lists, they are as dodgy as a 3 dollar coin.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/leadership-tensions-at-fever-pitch-20120219-1th9r.html#ixzz1mpjaaTnO
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:19 am
and to all the Ruddistas, the Doubters, and the gutter dwelling freaks:
From 1/7 the Tax free threashold rises from 6K – 20K
Rinse Repeat, From 1/7 the Tax free threashold rises from 6K – 20K
Nothing is pervasive as $$$ in your pocket
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:19 am
Gillard copped the perfect storm. Replacing a first term PM in the manner she did, an election campaign called too soon in my opinion, a disjointed campaign where some of her ideas were just plain silly, the hung parliament which meant she had to make deals a lot of people were not comfortable with, the minority government which meant she back-flipped on a key election commitment, total chaos on border protection policy and the ghost of Rudd which meant she never had any clean air. I doubt any PM could have dealt with all that and ended up in a much better position than she finds herself in.
Under different circumstances Gillard could have been a better liked PM.
by DavidWH on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:19 am
Makes you wonder how many else of the listings are false:
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:20 am
Repeat, I know, but this one was a bottler:
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:21 am
Yeah, but remember, everything is totally her fault and Kevin Rudd wouldn’t have done it because he’s so awesome. Or something. Its probably also important to remember that even for the flaws in her campaign (which would fit what people have said about how if it was up to her she’d have challenged later) her popularity didn’t really start getting hit til she got leaked against.
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:22 am
This just doesn’t make sense.
So Gillard calls a spill, Rudd doesn’t nominate (or does nominate and loses).
How does that help Bligh? They seem to be looking for excuses for Qld Labor being caned at the next election.
by Diogenes on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:22 am
Thanks for that Gary. So all that media hype and all the flame wars were for … what?
It’s Shitzenkopf territory.
-Catch-22.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:23 am
DavidWH,
What leads you to that opinion?
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:24 am
I think its a fair point, even if you can understand why she would have. In hindsight more time pre election would have been good, but I think she was very self-conscious about wanting to look ‘legitimate’, right down to not moving into the Lodge until after winning the post-election negotiations.
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:25 am
All these Labor pollies coming out leads me more than ever to think that my belly fluff was right.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:26 am
Oh right, and you don’t think the Gillard supporters are inflating HER support?
by ShowsOn on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:27 am
DavidWH, so-called Labor people who would see the party get torn apart over polling. and sacrfice the government in the process, shit me
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:27 am
Indeed, such tragedy. RIP
by Thomas Paine on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:28 am
How can Gillard call a spill while Rudd is O/S? That will look like her running away from a fair fight.
by ShowsOn on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:28 am
Perhaps, but the media has more interest in inflating Rudd’s numbers than they would Gillard’s. She’s the one they currently hate, remember?
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:29 am
And I thought Agro was a cartoon character.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:30 am
TLBD I just think it may have helped if Gillard has have had more time in the role to build her position before calling the election. The campaign just seemed too disorganized and there were too many silly moments.
by DavidWH on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:30 am
SO
He’s back next week evidently. That is when some people are urging Gillard to call a spill.
Rudd would just say he’s not challenging, he’s happy being FM etc etc.
At least someone might challenge Swan for deputy if they call a spill for all positions.
by Diogenes on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:31 am
David Marr on Rudd
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/resurgent-rudd-the-man-canberra-loves-to-hate-20120219-1th9h.html
Marr, unsurprisingly, sounds circumspect about whether he has changed
by shellbell on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:32 am
Dio -
Yeah, I’m not seeing it myself. Of course federal “leadership” tensions will distract from any message Anna Bligh tries to get out during the campaign, but … who is honestly suggesting that the ALP is in serious contention for anything but a heavy loss in Queensland?
by Jackol on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:33 am
DavidWH,
Fair enough.
The contrary view would be that she was a frightened little chick, too scared to call an election. The mice could have made a meal of that one. Vide now.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:33 am
Nah that would be hopeless because all the Gillard supporters would vote for Swan because if Swan loses that position it would imply that Gillard doesn’t have strong support.
by ShowsOn on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:33 am
ShowsOn,
@8722. I agree with your assessment.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:35 am
Mick it’s not worth getting really angry. I don’t think what gets written here will have much impact on what ends up happening. There are forces much bigger than PB at play here not least of which is a certain ex-PM’s ego.
by DavidWH on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:36 am
Perhaps Rudds real numbes are the same as when he got rolled
a big fat 0*
*Remember he was too chicken shit to contest
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:36 am
evening all and thanks once more WB for your patience in hosting .
Have just been watching Ben Hur of all things which reminded me of some of what is at stake here.
Remember the bits with the lepers consigned to exclusion / death by the heartlessly stupid empire?
Well I can tell you ( on the basis of rather more important inside public service info than rubbish about K Rudd being annoyed on take 22 or whatever of a new years greeting) that just before the tories last lost power they were seriously trying to have anyone with leprosy excluded from immigration intake , refugees included. Not making this up folks.
This notwithstanding that leprosy is ridiculously easy and cheap to treat (around the 75 cent mark for the required course of medication)
Anyone care to guess how the oh so f..king sanctimoniously Christian Scott Morrison might place himself on this one? Or the LOTO?
Or … well surely you get the point. The spirit of Christ is self evidently more in the atheist redhead than in these horrid horrid horrid people .
Tony; Scot; Julie; Pink Faced Chrissy; and a special mention to Joe Hockey the Appallingly Disappointing Surprise Racist:
YOU BASTARDS
A song for each of the above named is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReuBms-qZQk
by Marrickville Mauler on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:36 am
Showson
The theory of the rising polls in 2012/2013 was first put by Aristotle a few months ago.
He suggested that by the time the election came around it would be Tony Abbott who would be frightening the horses by pledging to tear down all the legislation that the Government had introduced and bedded down. This would include taking back the compensation for the carbon tax and removing the tax reforms such as the increase in the tax free threshold. It would also include abolishing the increase in super and the decrease in company tax that will flow from the mining tax.
I find the argument very plausible, but we will only know for sure one way or the other by waiting for these things to play out.
Also I have been noticing over the past couple of weeks, that despite all the focus on the leadership crap, the MSM are starting to discuss the shortcomings of the opposition’s economic policies and noting that they don’t make any sense. This also has the potential to tilt the polls back the government’s way.
by Darn on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:38 am
MM,
Gotta love the cutters on the chariot wheels!
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:38 am
A certain ex (empahsis on) PM who is starting to get far too cosy to some of the members opposite
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:39 am
Its a shame Coorey doesn’t say more about this part at the end of his editorial today, because it shows how good a party man Rudd is:
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:39 am
That certainly made the rounds, however quietly.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:40 am
The Blu-ray I hope.
by ShowsOn on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:43 am
All this about Kev the Pretender will come out in the wash. Speculation is futile but seems to give many parties, political and not, their jollies.
I’m happy to sit back and wait for facts.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:43 am
indeed TLBD and apols for stroppy remarks to you the other night, like many here I am finding current circumstances stressful but should not have lashed at you
by Marrickville Mauler on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:43 am
So this is kinda newsworthy… not that its gonna get much coverage due to Rudd vs Gillard taking all the space: http://www.theage.com.au/national/carbon-tax-fails-to-slow-coal-boom-20120219-1th5v.html
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:44 am
… or rumours.
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:45 am
This complete pile of nonsense are existing Coalition ‘policy’, but people still rate Abbott as a better economic manager than Gillard!
That’s why I get the sense that the issues don’t matter. The public just finds Gillard completely unpalatable as P.M., so much so that they would seriously consider handing over to Abbott who is the Coalition’s version of Latham.
I don’t think we have enough time to wait.
by ShowsOn on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:45 am
She shouldn’t do anything in my opinion. It’s up to Rudd to make the running, and he can’t hide behind his media whispers any longer. It’s out in the open, and stirrer Wilkie has confirmed it’s been simmering at least since November.
He either puts up or goes the way of Costello.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:46 am
MM,
‘s OK. Contrariness is expected; nay, demanded!
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:46 am
Does she have the time?
What if the Newspoll out Tuesday week is a 58/42 outlier, and includes a question about Labor leadership that shows Rudd leading Gillard by a 2:1 margin?
by ShowsOn on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:49 am
And of course, winning World’s Greatest Treasurer. He may be weak on charisma but that award gives weight to the government’s economic credentials. He could still remain Treasurer, but it makes more sense not to tinker.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:51 am
very gracious TLBD thanks
by Marrickville Mauler on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:52 am
The PM does not care: she gets on with the job. She is leaving the swatting of the midgets to her vassals.
If a Brutus or a Cassius comes, he does. I bet that is not uppermost in her mind as she does stuff.
“Stuff” has quite a definite meaning in our family; it is short for “important stuff.”
by This little black duck on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:55 am
Very sad to hear of Judith Barnes death.
by hairy nose on Feb 20, 2012 at 12:56 am