Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I didn’t suggest you were like Frank, I suggested you were heading down that path. Calling people a ‘joke’ or anything else is unpleasant, particularly from someone who rails against name calling and intimidation of others. Whether you are responding in kind or not and whether it’s only a couple of times or not is surely irrelevant.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:34 am
So, whoes listening to 3 ALWAYS WANKING around here Evan ?
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:34 am
jeffemu @ 9026
I take your point that part of the difficulty here is that the risk of unintended consequences is very high because the margin is wafter thin.
by Boerwar on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:35 am
Telly conferening
Is a way of finding out if people realy need to travel
Or taking junkets
Or net working
For new positions
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:36 am
HAHAHAHA. Good one Evan14. I needed a laugh
by Mithrandir on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:36 am
The Finnigans @ 9044
You haven’t a clue what you are talking about and have been listening to Frank too much.
by bemused on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:36 am
So in Newspolls etc suggesting Rudd is more popular among the conservative voters than Gillard that means …?
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:37 am
Ha ha ha, but i got my BISONs
http://afrankview.net/2012/02/australias-great-bisons-beautiful-inspiring-set-of-numbers/
by The Finnigans on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:38 am
Rudd, as with anyone I guess, surrounds himself with tight supporters. He may be underestimating just what the membership and supporters think about his destabilisation campaign.
by Fiz on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:38 am
TLM and bemused
I want the current team to bring in all the proposed legislation and bed it down. If Rudd becomes leader he will wimp out. He will not be able to deal with a minority govt as the PM does (Wilkie was always doubtful and falls to flattery).
Therefore I vote for no change. If things as as bad for Labor as the pollsters want us to believe, doesn’t matter who leads.
Sabra Lane on 774 this morn was insistent that Garrett talk about leadershit. Garrett equally insistent that he wouldnt. I wish all the ministers had been as strong from the beginning. Shows inexperience, but they are gaining strength. Now Rudd wants to throw out that experience.
by lizzie on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:39 am
Using Evan14 logic that means that Coalition voters want Rudd back as PM so that the Coalition will lose. You know it makes sense
by Mithrandir on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:39 am
http://www.theage.com.au/business/getting-wealthier-feeling-poorer-20120218-1tfs8.html
more in the article
by Leroy on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:39 am
Gary
KR is not popular in our state of Vic. fed Labor is doing well under JG here in vic.
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:39 am
Mike collins
Tasmania to and wilkie not popular
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:40 am
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Kevin-Rudd-Labor-leader-poll-leak-Gillard-challeng-pd20120220-RMQMM?OpenDocument&src=sph
by dave on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:41 am
Another thing i think will happen. I have a strong belief about this. If what happens and the media hysteria causes minor damage only.
NO spill, NO dethroning of the PM. NO major changes to the Government. Then they will again be shown to the public as getting it stuffed up yet again. Those of us that keep telling people what to expect from the media and not like them ….. correctly nominate the result. Well the general public will easily wake up to this by the next election, and it is still a long way away.
I also expect if the Government survives this current media bullshit onslaught then there will be a subsequent closer examination of what is on the other side of parliament. Tone NoNo will eventually come under some heat.
If Labor can stand firm, steady as she goes, then the punters will reluctantly have to admit that the Government did/are doing a good job policy wise under extremely adverse conditions.
And what has – them over there – the opposition got to offer – sweet F*#k all.
by jeffemu on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:41 am
Can u imagine rudd fro t bench
If it lasted one day
YES SIR NO SIR THREE BAGS FULL SIR
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:42 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/rudd-redux-wrongly-ridiculed/story-fnbcok0h-1226275213412
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:42 am
Now bemused, that is just that little bit further down the Frank path.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:43 am
difference bewtween Frank and Bemused is that Frank calls it as he sees it, and supports the Party
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:43 am
Rudd loves jetting around the world. Do you think he is going to face a challenge he will lose and have to go to the backbench?
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:44 am
That is true Vic but the AW audience is very conservative and you don’t get too many positive comments about JG on there, particularly from their presenters.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:45 am
Julia Gillard doesn’t poll well in NSW and QLD – where are the marginal seats? Not in Victoria(with the exception of Corrangamite and La Trobe), nor SA.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:46 am
Sooooooooooooooo… is this all still a media beat up and a figment of our imagination?
by Patrick Bateman on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:46 am
TLM @ 9062
I do believe that I may have been the first to use the term ‘Rudd Redux’ right here on yr humble Bludger Blog.
It does nothing for me that Mr Bramston, who is the public face of the Rudd Wreckers (and who therefore gets space in The Australian’), is using it now.
by Boerwar on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:46 am
Labor needs to cut out the KRudd thats Destructing it
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:47 am
Patrick BatemN
I for one never said it was. Nor did Boerwar, confessions, not sure about the rest.
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:47 am
If Rudd is put in now by the time of the next election neither will Rudd.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:49 am
The Finnigans @ 9052
And I give you full credit for compiling that excellent set of facts.
I keep a copy handy on my computer.
by bemused on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:50 am
Apparently so, or it’s just that traitor and a few of his misguided supporters.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:50 am
Boerwar
We know the problem. It is a sad state of affairs. But seriously, What is the best course of action going forward?
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:50 am
Musikemp
Your comments border on treason.
You are saying that Australia should not be involved in crucial international meetings eg G20 etc because of a factional ALP squabble.
This will be my last comment for the day but really you people are positively disgraceful.
Whatever it takes is your motto.
by daretotread on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:50 am
Apologies Bateman
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:51 am
Is there a possibility that a “secret deal” can be made for the betterment of the party and its re-election chances?
If they fair dinkum give us this
as PM there will be hell to pay 
by Centre on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:51 am
Reading Coorey’s article I am transported back to Rudd’s removal and his claim that he didn’t want the party to lurch to the right. We then had an avalanche of lefties claiming the rightward Rudd as their own and deriding Julia Gillard as a puppet of de Bruyn and Farrell. But apparently we now have Rudd who will just keep everything as is, including trying to reach a regional solution with Malaysia.
I wonder how many poofle valves are blowing at the purple blog.
by Fiz on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:52 am
One wonders whether one can be negatively disgraceful?
by gusface on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:52 am
Gary
I think that is the most likely outcome of the vote. Either way, this issue needs to be sorted now and once and for all. Will 70 votes be enough to dissuade Rudd from another challenge? I don’t know. At least two things are possible. Gillard wins comprehensively, Rudd goes to the backbench and she comes out stronger for having survived. As a result, she may get clean air to pursue what she should really be doing – governing and stalking the Opposition and not having to look over her shoulder.
The other possibility, which I think is the worst scenario of the two, is that the victory is narrow (I guess for either candidate) and the Opposition can run for the rest of the year on dysfunctional government, saying quite correctly that the loser is just sharpening the knife for another go. In my opinion, with this latter scenario, there is certain defeat (maybe annihilation) for the ALP at the next election.
The ALP finds itself in a mess. The ALP has to sort this out asap. It is not (as some continue to suggest) a media beat up. It is real; it is deadly. If this drags on for another 6 months the next election is (if it already isn’t) a foregone conclusion. And that is a real shame. Keating said on Friday night that Australia has the Best set of Numbers it has ever had. The hand this state of affairs over to the illiterates on the other side is just soul destroying.
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:52 am
Sorry, last sentence of my earlier post should read:
To hand this state of affairs over to the illiterates on the other side is just soul destroying.
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:54 am
Lynchpin
And that is why Rudd’s conduct is inexcusable
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:55 am
Rudd’s relationships with the media have always been much more extensive than his relationships with Caucus. He used them brilliantly in Kevin07. The party coat-tailed to his higher appeal than Beazley and finally ousted the monster Howard.
He continued to run very much to that pattern. There were some great moments such as The Apology and the handling of the GFC. But there were also moments of remarkable naivety such as a hands off approach to the ABC, leaving Newman and Scott in charge of its trashing, and appointing partisan warriors like Downer and Costello to sinecures. It was essentially a media and poll-driven leadership.
It worked brilliantly for two years, seeing off three Liberal Leaders and mostly having poll support around 60 2pp, and PPM around 70? But Abbott shoring up his base and aligning with News Ltd changed all that with a sort of anti-government populism. The attacks were pure hyperbole and not very honest, but they did expose the hollowness of Rudd’s position and his lack of political nous.
As BB mentioned recently, Rudd’s decision to channel Beattie and try a Mea Culpa on the batts and the BER gave legitimacy to Abbott’s and The Australian’s lies and trashed the brilliant story of how the battle with the GFC was won. That was when his invincible public support ratings took a deep dive. And that was when the issue of the chaos in administration and what was being achieved became paramount.
There were different stories about polling then. I don’t think he would have lost against Abbott, even having become damaged goods, although the outer states would have taken some hits. But the party had to ask itself where it was going under Rudd. The answer was not good. The coup was sudden and handled appallingly, as was Gillard’s first month or two in the job. She wasn’t prepared for it or planning it, no question. Had she been, she’d have made far less errors.
The campaign leaks against Gillard were the worst act of treachery in my lifetime. You’d probably need to go back to Lang against Theodore and then Chifley to reach a similar level. The analogy works at another level. Lang was populist with a huge and passionate following for a long time. Theodore and Chifley were more policy substance.
To argue, as Mumble did, that they were not the critical factor in a poor Labor campaign is to ignore the elephant. They took away her credibility at a critical time and twice derailed the campaign as she attempted to gather momentum. It is like arguing, as Robb did, that Tampa and Children Overboard had nothing to do with Howard winning in 2001. Technically there may be some truth in it – other factors were at work.
The Latham Diaries, written long before Rudd’s ascent to power, make it clear that Rudd had long been a source of leaks to Oakes. If he didn’t leak personally to Oakes during the campaign, one of his underlings would have at his behest.
What has made this whole thing very trying is that for the first year or so of Gillard’s leadership, the Abbott-Credlin strategy of putting Gillard under the media sideshow microscope and transforming trivial incidents into ‘Gillard Fail’ memes is barely reaching exhaustion (which is the one good thing) then Rudd and his spear-carriers contrive to keep the whole thing going. What’s more, it is very clearly being run to distract attention from what is being achieved.
He has to put up or shut up from here. What the government is trying to do is far more important than his narcissism.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:55 am
Rudd will get humilliated in any vote.
Stability trumps alls
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:55 am
If I was the PM I would leave Kevin in his current spot. Once this current crap dies down a little I would have some senior members front him on the side, i.e. Albo, Emmerson and Crean.
Just have a quiet word in his ear. “We have a job to do, you are doing your Foriegn Affairs Minister job well…. etc.” “now it is obvious you have made / making a mistake about becoming leader again” “It is just not going to happen”
I watched QT when Rudd smacked down Bishop re the Maldives question. I think he is a good Foreign Minister and obviously enjoys the role.
To me the matter has been laid to rest. The numbers are known as far as I am concerned. Let the media keep circle jerking. All the Lab party has to say is “yeah right, just like last time guys”
The PM will come out of it smelling sweet and even loyal to her caucus. A Leader.
I know if I had a big majority I would of dispatch Kevin to the backbench in a blink, but you cant do that with a minority government.
Once this current beat-up dies down… everytime a labor member is interviewed they should bring up to specific reporters, “hey you were out by 40 votes (or whatever) in your last count, where did you get these ones from”
Hit them at every available opportunity on their record of being wrong wrong wrong.
by jeffemu on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:56 am
v
The very real trouble with insanity is that there is very often no obvious rational way forward. Many organisations have difficulty with sociopathic or narcissist managers who, by dint of their sociopathy, get into positions of power and responsibility. They are clever. They are manipulative. They are socially adept. It is just that the whole thing is about them, regardless. Once they are in, they use their position to reinforce their power. The Coalition has the same problem with Mr Abbott.
That is what worries me about modern Australian politics. Do the modern settings mean that sociopaths are more likely to reach the top now than they used to?
by Boerwar on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:56 am
lizzie @ 9054
I have consistently said I did not want anything to happen until the second half of this year if at all. I have also said that I would be happy if JG led the ALP to victory in 2013.
But then came the 4C appearance which has sparked this current leadership frenzy. Rudd had the sense to decline to appear.
Ask yourself whose timing the current leadership talk fits? Certainly not Rudd’s. I am guessing that he probably would have preferred to let Julia keep digging a little longer to weaken her position and strengthen his. Certainly, I cannot see how Rudd would have wanted this happening during the Qld election campaign.
by bemused on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
Evan, you can add Deakin to that list. Not sure exactly about La Trobe – but Corangamite and Deakin are both held by less than 1%.
3 seats would put the Coalition at 75 – not including Crooke.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:58 am
No, but quite a few did.
It strikes me that the likely reality is that the current situation is the product of Rudd & Friends’ clever use of our salivating, hyperactive, perspectiveless media, rather than just the media creating this out of thin air as was frequently postulated here in recent weeks and months.
Amazing that the ALP hasn’t learnt one of the key lessons of the Howard years – disunity is death. If you’re worried about how the party’s travelling the worst thing you can do is do a Cheeseman and panic in the media – it makes your fears become a reality, even if they weren’t before.
Of course all of this goes much deeper. Until the cancer of Labor factionalism is excised the party remains in intensive care, possibly moving to palliative…
by Patrick Bateman on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:59 am
This is the kind of lumping together of our disparate group that I dislike.
by lizzie on Feb 20, 2012 at 9:59 am
According to Labor rules, apparently, a spill can only come about if 50% of the caucus plus 1 ask for it or Gillard calls for it. The moment the caucus calls for it I would think Gillard is in trouble. The moment Gillard calls for it I believe she’d win. If I was her I would only call for it if I knew the result would be a resounding victory. Anything less will not be pretty. If the caucus call for it a dignified exit maybe in order.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 10:01 am
GD
Great post.
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 10:01 am
Gary
Interesting. Although these things are of little value as a poll, they can measure that hair trigger reaction, i.e. who’s angry enough to vote. Also, you might have thought it would mirror Liberal Party supporters in the polls and favour Rudd as preferred PM, if 3AW has a conservative audience (and it does).
I do wonder if Rudd has lost some community support by being seen to publicly to be undermining the govt, if people are having second thoughts about getting rid of Gillard, or if they just hate the idea of instability and changing the PM. The government is on the nose, but I do think that “election now” feeling has gone except with rusted on tories, and people just want things to carry on until the election. “Get on with your job” is the vibe.
by Leroy on Feb 20, 2012 at 10:01 am