tip off

Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.

A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

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  • 1
    george
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    gordongraham: Behold: the power of a poll with a standard deviation away from the mean … #Newspoll

  • 2
    confessions
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll figures will inevitably mean Rudd and his coterie will start leaking to the msm again, and his cheersquad will return.

    What did I say about the fortnightly Newspoll stirring the hopes and dreams of the Rudd Cult?! :lol:

  • 3
    briefly
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    interest rates!

  • 4
    Thomas Paine
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 37 (-3) Abbott 40 (+3) #auspol

    That is just incredible (and against Abbott?!). Suggests a further movement away from Labor may occur, as this poll may be indicating.

    Dangerous thing for Gillard is public fatigue at her trials and tribulations, the public may just get entirely fed up with her altogether. The latest revelations re 4Corners aint going to help any at all.

    Guess they will be running ultra hard on the economy from here on.

  • 5
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    If it had been 53/47 – would it have been margin of error or the narrowing …?

  • 6
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Everything stays near enough the same then. Try harder, Tony.

  • 7
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    bbp
    Margin of error and relief not to have gone backwards.

  • 8
    BH
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    A trifle disappointing but what can you expect with so much chatter going on within the party about leadership.

    If Bruce Hawker is genuine about wanting Labor to win in 2013 he had better ask Kev and his backers to start working with the Party instead of against it and their colleagues.

    Just when we thought the media may give Labor some clear air and really look at Abbott and his rantings we get him ahead as PPM. There won’t be any bad press for Tone.

  • 9
    Thomas Paine
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Did Possum do some analysis some while ago correlating interest rates to TPP?

  • 10
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Shanahan on 891 delroy re whatever and Julia and KevIn

  • 11
    david
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll for News Ltd, as reliable as Judas the Apostles loyalty to JC. Give us a result Martin that suits our present agenda. You will be rewarded accordingly. O’Shaughnessy regards himself as a media star, have a listen to all electronic media in morning.

  • 12
    george
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    GrogsGamut: So Nielsen, Newspoll and Essential together all say what @Pollytics has been saying – no movement. http://t.co/BXDEyxAE #trendisyourfriend

  • 13
    Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Thomas Paine: You can bet that within a few days, there’ll be another selective leak to the mdia designed to damage Rudd – that’s the way Shorten & his ilk operate.

  • 14
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Can we rely on Newspoll? Latest economic position from the preferred economic leader

    OPPOSITION Leader Tony Abbott has produced yet another Coalition position on its plans for a budget surplus, as Labor last night released an on-line advertisement to capitalise on opposition confusion.

    ''Our commitment is to have a budget surplus in year one and subsequently,'' Mr Abbott said yesterday.

    He told the Ten Network that, ''we can do that based on current Treasury figures''.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-takes-a-new-surplus-tack-20120212-1szqk.html#ixzz1mGTOdAOq

    I suppose the assumption is that if you produce enough economic positions, one of them will hit the spot with somebody. What was that Groucho Marx statement, Finns?

    "If you don't like that policy, I've got others."

  • 15
    Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    As for the often repeated mantra here that Julia reluctantly accepted the job of PM the night before the caucus vote – yeah, definitely! :lol:

  • 16
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    @GP/4

    No there is no movement for PM for Abbott.

    Consider the differences between this poll and Nielsen on 5th feb.

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 48 (+6) Abbott 46 (0) #auspol
    5 Feb Favorite Retweet Reply

  • 17
    PAAPTSEF
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib

    True George, but perhaps it kills off this “move back to the ALP” meme here which has not been supported by the poll results.

    Which lets face it is much more important than the MSM touted leadership challenge or Lib touted early election which have not been supported by reality

  • 18
    confessions
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    GrogsGamut: So Nielsen, Newspoll and Essential together all say what @Pollytics has been saying – no movement. http://t.co/BXDEyxAE #trendisyourfriend

    Yep.

  • 19
    Mick Collins
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    William, is it possible that the polls reflect a lag in public opinion ?
    IE would peoples attitudes be reflecting the mood of the TE “Riot” etc , and that people need to digest last week a bit longer, before being able to articulate how last weeks events effect their attitudes ?

  • 20
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Oh, so going from 59-41 to 55-45 isn’t a “move back to the ALP”?

    Jackol:

    18 to 10 point lead is a move back to the ALP (in that one polling firm) from an outlier to the average.

    Check out pollytrend…its flatlining since late last year. Theres nothing happening and no amount of data massaging is going to change that.

  • 21
    Dario
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll up to its usual unreliable self of late

  • 22
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Consider the differences between this poll and Nielsen on 5th feb.

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 48 (+6) Abbott 46 (0) #auspol
    5 Feb Favorite Retweet Reply

    Those figures are hardly different from Newspoll’s. If you’re pointing to the fact that the movement was in opposition directions, you aren’t comparing apples with apples. The movement in Newspoll compares with a result from two weeks ago, and the movement in Nielsen compared with a result from two months ago.

  • 23
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    I can’t believe Gillard agreed to be interviewed for tonight’s episode of 4 Corners.

    She should’ve done an interview on that topic AFTER she retires from parliament.

    Which frankly could occur after the election next year.

  • 24
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Delroy leading by design I expect, Shanahan towards the Turnbull possibility.

    Which Shana dismisses as a No until after the next election.

  • 25
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    What’s unreliable about it? It’s statistically the same result as every other poll conducted in the last month, including last fortnight’s Newspoll.

  • 26
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    @William/22,

    Yes it is, it just shows that Opposition hasn’t gained a darn thing (except the usual trolling news headlines – i.e. cheap shots).

  • 27
    New2This
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    “I love the smell of newspoll in the morning…”

  • 28
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    On Delroy, Pammie Wright, the daughter of my and her dearly loved late parents.

    Pam ex Adelaide High.

  • 29
    vitalise
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Gloat away, Liberal supporters. JG is still PM, Labor is still in power and the election is approximately 18 months away.

    I wouldn’t be opening the champagne just yet…

  • 30
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    They’re eight points in front. They don’t need to “gain a darn thing”.

  • 31
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    @William,

    lol, And they have what 2 years till election.

    Being in-front doesn’t mean anything.

  • 32
    Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    What’s remarkable is that people here think that 55-45 is proof that Labor under the leadership of Julia Gillard are headed towards victory in 2013.
    And Rudd was removed when Labor was leading by 4 points in Newspoll?

  • 33
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    William, is it possible that the polls reflect a lag in public opinion ?
    IE would peoples attitudes be reflecting the mood of the TE “Riot” etc , and that people need to digest last week a bit longer, before being able to articulate how last weeks events effect their attitudes ?

    You would indeed expect that if things had actually changed, but most of the evidence suggests that it hasn’t.

  • 34
    New2This
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    Interesting… TAFE finished tonight. We had a house full of young plumbers all booing and laughing at Gillard… I wonder why.

  • 35
    Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    The polling for Rudd was so good that Gillard’s henchmen had to fabricate a phoney report to blackmail MPs into dumping him.

  • 36
    deblonay
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Abbott is seen as a better prospective economic manager than Gillard by a margin of 43/34
    How dumb is that !!
    Does it show the electorate just wont buy Gillard in any shape or form..and despite the state of the economy they won;t listen to her and that’s that !

  • 37
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    @TLM/32

    Would you rather Abbott as PM?

    @TLM/35

    Would you rather Abbott as PM?

    Rudd was being hammered Federally and in Queensland by the Opposition and the Media.

  • 38
    markjs
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Effectively with all this leadership speculation in the media the general public are being asked to chose between Abbott who ‘seems’ to be unchallenged…and JG who is “going to be challenged any day’

    Is it any wonder Joe/Jane Blow mark JG down?

    Mr Rudd’s megalomania is doing severe harm to a good Govt and unless he is dealt with nothing will change. It’s almost as if the public are waiting for something to happen…

  • 39
    DavidWH
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    I think that’s an unsurprising result and basically shows things have leveled out around that 54/46 situation. I can’t see things changing materially until something of substance happens.

    On balance I think we can say Gillard and Abbott are equally liked or disliked, take your pick, and it will be other issues that swing opinions. Most people are just fed up with the political bullshit that both sides try and pretend is serious political debate.

  • 40
    Burgey
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    Another fortnight, another bout of sameness.

    On and on it (and the MSM) goes.

  • 41
    Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Well yes, both are equally disliked, I guess Labor’s got to hope that ultimately Abbott is disliked more than Julia. :)

  • 42
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    Well yes, both are equally disliked, I guess Labor’s got to hope that ultimately Abbott is disliked more than Julia. :)

    I think the Coalition would be leading 60/40 if Turnbull was leader.

    Abbott is giving Labor a glimmer of hope.

  • 43
    Mod Lib
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    So in summary the polls are locked in at a level that would see a 30 to 40 seat Coalition majority, with outlying polls from 5 months ago showing a 50 seat majority is within the realms of possibility.

    And the ALP Bloggers on PB are just as content as the Coalition bloggers.

    …and with that, its probably time to shuffle off to bed and await Morgan on Friday.

    Good night all! :)

  • 44
    New2This
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    No I think Gillard is strongly disliked… She refuses to answer a question. I have never heard her answer a single question. I suffer every interview to hear the same old same old. When cornered she gives the … “look I’ve answered your stupid questions they are all on the public record…” How long can Julia Gillard avoid answering questions?

  • 45
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    We had a house full of young plumbers all booing and laughing at Gillard

    They weren’t all called Joe, were they?

  • 46
    Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Methinks it’s Julia doing the destabilising to herself, and making things much easier for Kevin Rudd.
    FGS, who on earth advised her to appear on that program tonight? That was a colossal mistake.

  • 47
    Mick Collins
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    OK I’ll put it this way,
    does it take time for events to wash through, before they critically start to effect peoples thinking ?
    Given the Coalitions total incoherence on economics, and with a government whoes management avoided the GFC, how could any one seriously rate the Coalition as better economically ?

  • 48
    Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    Mod Lib: Off to bed also, nice to read your comments, as always. :)

  • 49
    deblonay
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    Re The Fan Club
    ___________
    Some on this Blog have real problems with fairly basic maths.
    …a kind of “political autism’…or is it dyslexia re polls statistics

  • 50
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    So in summary the polls are locked in at a level that would see a 30 to 40 seat Coalition majority, with outlying polls from 5 months ago showing a 50 seat majority is within the realms of possibility.

    That would appear to be the case.

    But is there an election next weekend?

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