Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition
Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
GG, you accept Wilkie’s word? Why did they have a 90 minute meeting anyway? What is Wilkie’s interest in foreign affairs. I don’t buy it.
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Probably. But I’m actually not opposed to a change of leadership in the long run if it means no Abbott PM. My argument all along is that now is not the time. Let’s see what the situation is in 12 month’s time before thinking about a change. It just may not be needed by then.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Gary @ 84
I am curious about the statement “He can’t call for a spill without the majority of caucus wanting one.” Several here have made such a statement.
He can move a motion calling for a spill if he can get a seconder.
It would require a majority to vote in favour of the motion for there to actually be a spill.
If a majority voted for a spill in those circumstances, I would expect him to win a subsequent leadership ballot.
This is all pretty standard conduct of meetings.
by bemused on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:55 pm
1) Someone else in caucus moving a motion for a ballot.
2) The media calling in their markers and Rudd calling for a ballot. I’d think that Rudd owes quite a few in the media at the moment for talking this all up and they wont be happy if he doesn’t do something. He may be at the point of using it or losing it as far as his MSM support base goes?
I’d rather JG doesn’t do it, and from watching her presser today i dont think she will. She’s is very steady on course with doing stuff at the moment and hopefully will stick to her strength. After all, she is the incumbent.
by imacca on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:55 pm
kezza
Could you speculate on this for me, because I just can’t work this bit out. Why would Wilkie say he would prefer Rudd over Gillard when Rudd was actively campaigning against Wilkie’s reforms?
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Only because the media wa t him too eggi g him on
They disgust me this is not democracy
Would u let your child be a juno
I woukd chain them to their beds first
Better
Tne ho nest carbage collector we all need
Thought that as ours outside now always wave ever monday ,
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:57 pm
He might have broken a confidence with Rudd. You’ve got to wonder how competent a spook he really was.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:57 pm
So imacca, your second point seems the more likely. Will Rudd challenge, in your opinion?
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:57 pm
You’re splitting hairs.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Gary
Spot on, Gary. As long as she ignores him Rudd can do nothing, and it’s getting to the stage where the popular tide is starting to turn against him. As has been said many times, Rudd got up with Gillard’s support. Without it he’s toast.
He should be very careful from now on. It would be very easy for him to make a total arsk of himself.
by muttleymcgee on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:58 pm
No, Rudd was certainly recovering and left on 52/48. He had a very short spell of ‘bad’ polling. Gillard and marathon of abysmal polling.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:59 pm
I agree but that’s why I’m saying he won’t do it. ATM he doesn’t have the numbers.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Is that true?
by confessions on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:00 pm
So Bemused, in order for a spill motion to succeed, the mover needs 50% plus 1? Reason I ask is that I think Tingle in the AFR last week said a spill motion only required the support of 30%.
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Actually Rudd could run on a lot of the record since many of the initiatives were his. Too easy.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:01 pm
One poll does not make an election win.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:01 pm
I should have said one OPINION poll does not make an election win.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Lynchpin,
Doesn’t matter. It actually allows Gillard to continue her position of active non engagement. Gillard is saying there is no challenge. It’s up to Rudd to prove her wrong.
Rudd’s strategy is to force Gillard to resign and be carried in to the room on the shoulders of his proletariat supporters. His real problem is the mob may contine to the nearest window and toss him over the balcony.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Well listened to the video with bated breath
My trust is returned to the aus, people
From now on i beleive in NO polls
There was not o e nasty word there
oved the way, one man said its not good for the gov
The .ast man agrees qith us
G u t l e s
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Err, he worked it out and was recovering into nice positive territory.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:03 pm
In that case the death roll continues.
At the very minimum, sacking Rudd and possibly Bowen if he has also been destabilising are the very minimum that can be done.
Calling a spill is tantamount to Gillard signing her own resignation letter – her authority goes as well.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Agree. And that’s why if Rudd eventually does replace Julia it must be done close to the election in 2013. Otherwise the MSM, particularly Murdoch’s mob, will crucify him again. The trick lies in not giving them the time to do so.
by Darn on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Gary @ 108
Fine, you don’t know the difference between moving a motion and having it carried.
Parliament must be a deeply mysterious process to you when you watch.
by bemused on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Lynchpin
That was my speculation!
Seems to me that Rudd was promising Wilkie one thing and the NSW MPs another. Wilkie didn’t know the other bit at the time.
At the presser he gave the other day, where he said that Rudd did discuss the leadership with him in November, and where he said that he would have no problems working with Rudd if Rudd became PM again, then I can only assume he had no idea that in November Rudd was also trying to firm up support by saying he wouldn’t back the anti-pokies legislation.
As an aside, Wilkie’s sulky “Gillard hasn’t spoken to me since January 20″ jibe when, of course, she doesn;t have to now since he tore up the agreement – speaks volumes about his support for Rudd. Fair weather friend indeed.
by kezza2 on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:04 pm
GG, how high would this balcony be exactly?
by blackburnpseph on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:04 pm
I think rudd is so pompus he will expect thousands linning the strreets as he returns home
In a pope mobile, wearing his emperors clothes
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Coorey’s editorial today certainly hinted at it:
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:05 pm
123
Ask the people of hobart.
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:06 pm
I do. Same effect old son as far as my argument was concerned.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Eric Ripper on crack:
https://twitter.com/#!/EricRipperMLA/status/171438045902536704
by William Bowe on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Good analysis, GG. I’m happy to go along with that. Does that make me one of Howard’s “elitists”? Let’s see if the polls are still this bad by September. Still a year to make any corrections.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Blaxkapur
Not high enougn
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:07 pm
So getting rid of Rudd and Bowen would solve the problem would it? You must be kidding.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
BBS
How does the death roll stop, then?
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Better than currently my say where the emperor has no clothes!
by centaur009 on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Lynchpin @ 113
I was not aware of Tingle saying that.
It would require a special provision in Caucus rules for that to be so and I think it would be very peculiar to have such a rule, but as I have not had access to Caucus rules I can’t rule it out.
Normally a motion requires a simple majority to be carried.
In some cases there are requirements for a much higher vote to pass special types of motions. e.g. change the rules of an organisation.
You have roused my interest and I will do some research.
by bemused on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
The problem for Labor at present is that Gillard can’t afford to do anything about Rudd and can’t afford not to do anything about Rudd. Now it’s out in the open I struggle to see a positive outcome for the government. All the possible solutions or non-solutions are problematic for them.
Regarding the Essential result it’s the first sign that perhaps the plateau has bottomed and we may have the beginning of a new trend. However as William said it is within the margin of error so we would need to see some further polling before making a call. Let’s see what the next NewsPoll comes up with.
by DavidWH on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
My Say, you are on fire!!
by blackburnpseph on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
He stood up to Howard at at tough time. Had certain in the media with leaked spook document on him trying to smear him I think as well. Than man certainly has a lot of guts and stubbornness.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Darn i think there would be NO bounce
But i think the PM will get one from this
The people in the street not one descenter,
I presume that was sydney
Every one loves a fighter in this country down deep
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Thanks Bemused. I hope I haven’t given you a bumsteer.
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Would that be the same balcony that they threw him over in 2010 or would it be a different one the second time round?
by Scarpat on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm
So the polls are showing that all the Governments initiatives (bar CEF, yet) are popular out there in punterland. The real drag on the Governments polling appears to be image related. Changing back to KRudd in a fit of panic is not going to change that. All it will mean is that the Indies will cease to support the Government, and will vote with
for a no confidence 
bye bye Government.
The best thing for the Governmet to do is lance the KRudd boil, and get on with Government.
Most of the negativity is just piss and wind on the MSMs part. Let the Gillard Governments* actions speak for itself, the punters will be won over in the end.
*Under normal circumstances you’lld call it the Rudd/Gillard Government, but thats up to KRudd
by Mick Collins on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Darn the two egos will never be pm
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm
I think Mumble gets it right here:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/2003_all_over_again/
Gillard’s goose is cooked, Smith would be the machine candidate who knocked off Rudd and damaged Gillard, while going back to Rudd would at least be an admission that deposing him in the first place ultimately wasn’t a good idea, even if it seemed like a good idea at the time.
by ShowsOn on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm
He jumped over that one.
by Gary on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:13 pm
David WH
I believe there will be a trend back to Abbott as PPM if the boil isn’t lanced.
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Gary @ 128
You are now saying moving a motion has the same effect as it being passed.
A word of advice, stop digging.
by bemused on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm
And because the story isn’t being played out the way they like
by Space Kidette on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Yes in relation to Gillard’s dealing with Wilkie that would be true. And I think it must be obvious that when you are dealing with Wilkie political spin doesn’t cut it. A deal is a deal maybe, no turning back as they say.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm