Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition
Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
confessions
Evan’s comments only make sense if you are a Fib.
by victoria on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:39 am
Just heard on the news that it is believed Rudd has 35 signatures calling for a party meeting re the leadership.
by Gary on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:40 am
centaur009
I heard internally if they switch leaders now, the govt will fall and they will be wiped out. What to do!!!?
by victoria on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:40 am
Hmmmmm.. and if that happens around the time that the Carbon Price compenstaion kicks in……AND Gina has to start paying more tax………..
by imacca on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:41 am
Actually, there’s no correlation with what happened to Rudd, as Rudd was removed because of poor interpersonal skills and an inability to follow through on implementation, not because of polling.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:42 am
Certainly, but not a change of leader at this stage of the game.
by Gary on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:43 am
Obviously more than 4 people are supporting Rudd – so much for the impeccable source that the Gillardites were quoting earlier with relish.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:43 am
OC
Wouldn’t that be your plan if you were them?
by Diogenes on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:44 am
Imacca
I linked a good article from Michael Gordon of the Age on this very point. It is worth a read.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:44 am
Its what you have been inferring.
All your “horse trading” analysis, assuming that the indies wont do what they have explicitly said that they would do.
You’re patronising attitude, in second guessing them screams out that you consider them hicks.
Why so touchy Bemused, am I getting to the truth ?
by Mick Collins on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:44 am
Lunch went well. Joe is a great bloke, and clearly a canny and prosperous businessman. Forthright, honest and gave us all the goss on Queensland (and, unfortunately) why Labor will lose office there.
And fancy my good luck meeting another person like myself, who just loves to watch big planes take off from big airports, for the sheer pleasure of it!
V1Maxine, our other companion, went to the same school as I did, a few years behind me. Mixed in with the politics, it was really fantastic to talk over old times and old teachers, comparing notes, usually with the same conclusions. Ministers Evans, Ferguson and Tony Burke all went to St. Pat’s, Strathfield, clearly a Leftie breeding ground amidst the neat lawns and the cool Federation homes of the inner west.
If that wasn’t enough V1Mx and I discovered we shared a fascination with “Yaralla”, an old estate in the middle of Concord, Sydney, of a hundred acres or so in size, that was bequeathed to the people of NSW by Dame Eadith Evans. It has been left in almost pristine condition, a piece of 19th century rural Australia in the centre of the big city.
Since my Dad was ill in Corcord Hospital in the late 1980s, I’ve visited Yaralla just for quiet walks among the paddocks and the trees down by the river. Latterly, I’ve taken my dogs there for a run, but had to stop when they picked a fight with a couple of pig dogs off the lead and nearly didn’t get out of it.
V1Mx lives in the next street to the estate and before I dropped him off he took me for an “insiders” tour of part of the property, where he regularly goes for rustic constitutionals with his lady wife.
Good food. Great company. Intelligent conversation. Lotsa laughs and shared obsessions: political, aeronautical, scholastic and historical. What could be bad about an afternoon of that?
We were the first to arrive and the last to leave Abdul’s, truly Sydney’s best Lebo restaurant. An afternoon I’d love to repeat.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:44 am
So far there is no proof of either number. Don’t get too cocky.
by Gary on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:45 am
Jeez, it must be taboo for ALP members to discuss SHORTO.
Im interested in people’s comments on SHORTO playing both sides of the fence here.
Cant you see?
SHORTO backs Gillard, is instrumental in unprecedented spill of of First term PM.
SHORTO now one leader closer to the Lodge
SHORTO is fiercely pro-Gillard, great force for party unity in wake of damaging leadership change.
SHORTO, being a reasonable man, of good prospects, can also be approached re Treasurer’s job, as part of a Rudd comeback. (Hang on, isnt that the pre-leader hotseat?)
SHORTO denies it! A little after the moment passes.
by lefty e on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:46 am
BB
Sounds like you had a blast!!!
by victoria on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:46 am
zoomster:
Have only seen one other person acknowledge this:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/all-sizzle-no-sausage.html
As I said yesterday, the PM had a good week: strong parliamentary performances, the greenshoots of an economic narrative, and appearing to get on the front foot more generally. Conversely, the opposition showed how little they have to offer: Thomson, the tent embassy beat up, and boats. That was it.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:47 am
Gary
Grain of salt? Even so, 35 ain’t enough unless Tingle was right the other day about needing 30% of Caucus to bring it on. If this is what Rudd’s camp is putting about now, then their tactic is to not challenge but to let the rest of Caucus know there is enough “concern” to at least have the vote and try to get undecideds across the line. Mind you, some of those 35 might vote for Gillard.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:48 am
I agree. Not much has been said about this but the support for the policies is much more important than support for the personalities in the long term. This is the scenario that produces movement in the primary vote. The prospect of a loss of the policies will also support movement in the primary vote. In the end it will be the hip pocket nerve that drives the change – as it always is. And Abbott has pretty firmly nailed his flag to the repeal the laws mast.
The long game is still in play although I would expect the polls to take a hit from the lancing of the Rudd boil.
by Gweneth on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:48 am
BB:
sounds like a great afternoon. If J6P is as good humoured in person as he is here, then I’m sure he would’ve been great company!
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:50 am
confession @ 1344
victoria @ 1350
I see the confessions/victoria echo chamber is in full swing again reinforcing each others delusions.
by bemused on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:50 am
BB
I used to live across the river from Yaralla , you are quite right is is beautiful. Wasn’t there a move once to sub divide it up? but was thwarted?
by mari on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:50 am
There’s a lot of that on Poll Bludger.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:52 am
Gary @ 1351
Could be true but would surprise me.
I would have expected Rudd supporters to want to wait until a few months time, or at least get the Qld election out of the way.
by bemused on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:53 am
lefty e
Ironic isn’t it! Shorten’s only interest is self interest he backs it every time!
by MTBW on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:53 am
My understanding now is that 1/3 of the caucus needs to sign a petition to call the meeting together. 35 would be enough. That could include some from the middle gorund, for want of a better term, who may want the meeting but plan to vote for Gillard. In other words they just want it brought to a head.
by Gary on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:54 am
Like the tide going out, so the “challenge” seems to be disappearing over the horizon.
It may be back as that is the nature of politics, but I wonder where the handful of die-hard Rudd Supporters here think he will actually fit into the scheme of things.
According to the RS, Julia and Labor are doomed at the next election. Anyway, this is what they keep telling us.
However, if Brand Labor is so trashed why would Kevin be able to do anything about it?
Rudd reminds me of Herman Goering was it? who, just before the absolute collapse of the Third Reich, sent a telegram to Hitler looking for his acceptance that he, Goering, would be leader. Hitler wanted him shot as a traitor.
Just as Goering’s German would have been rubble, so would Rudd’s Labor party and his new Prime Ministership would last just about as long.
by Tricot on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:54 am
No different to a lot of politicians including Rudd and Gillard.
by Gary on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:55 am
Mick Collins @ 1359
Not at all. You know you are lying.
by bemused on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:56 am
I thought the slightly oxymoronic sounding Hunters’ Hill branch of the ALP had a lot of old boys.
Tony Burke studied law at Sydney Uni with Julia Baird at least for a time.
by shellbell on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:56 am
HI DAN bookmarked the Derp
For future reference ,and pass on,
by my say on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:56 am
Lynch
Definitely last post before going out but you seem to forget the factional blocks. Now I think they are quite fluid at the moment but I assume that the AWU mob Shorten) and the NSW left (Albo/Combet) have a few votes to swing and this COULD be decisive. The factions seem quite split
NSW right torn in two, NSW left split (the left left -eg Cameron-with Rudd) and possibly ?? just the Cabinet members still with Gillard. The miscos I think are still with Gillard.
However even accepting that the faction blocks are splintered I imagine they will still shift in blocks of 5-10?
by daretotread on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:56 am
Er, Rudd and Gillard are *openly* backing themselves.
I for one see that is as different to crashing two promising Labor leaders together on ice, so you can Bradbury it later (maybe after an Abbott term or two, whatevs).
by lefty e on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:58 am
Gary
Thanks Gary. If that is true it certainly changes the dynamic. So I gather the 1/3 petition can lead to a spill and thereafter a vote for the leadership. I guess we will wait and see what Tuesday brings. The worst outcome would be a close vote, in my view.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:58 am
The biggest rumour in town i heard was he had 4..
by my say on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:58 am
Bemused
Sorry broke my promise to myself (again!!!)
I think that things are moving too rapidly and that there may now be a challenge before the Qld election. Bligh seems to want the matter resolved.
She is into high stakes territory now (eg jail for Newman reference) and I guess she has not much to lose by a challenge and potentially something to gain.
by daretotread on Feb 21, 2012 at 10:59 am
Shorten wasn’t that convincing last night when asked the question about whether he’d serve in a Rudd Cabinet.
Bill is out for himself and his own interests, he sees himself as a future Prime Minister, so I think that he’d desert Gillard if he thought that accepting the Treasury post from Rudd would advantage him.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:00 am
Bushfire and Mari
I lived at Rhodes in the late 60s early 70s in Llewellyn St, across from Yaralla Hospital. Small world!
by MsAdventure on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:00 am
If you think these two are any different to Shorten and a large number of their mates and foes you are dreaming.
by Gary on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:01 am
Mick, sorry u have to endure this, i was bulled for weeks as mark j pointed out
The moderator has no idea
by my say on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:02 am
You constantly refuse to accept that the indies will keep their word.
Of course, most people know that such a proposition is rubbish.
But if you want to hold on to the delusion that the indies won’t walk away in the event of a leadership spill, thats fine, just don’t whinge when it all falls into a heap should Rudd return.
by Mick Collins on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:02 am
Excellent presser for PM.
by Gweneth on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:03 am
by Space Kidette on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:04 am
Frankly, Shorten might be pretty flexible in his loyalties but he comes across an awful lot better than Rudd or Gillard.
by Diogenes on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:04 am
That’s the 60,000 dollar question. bemused seems to have the detail. Is that the case bemused?
by Gary on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:04 am
One thing Labor has to avoid in a campaign this time is the so called Town Hall meetings where each leader takes Q&A from the audience. We know that last time the audience selected by Galaxy contained a majority of conservative voters. Although JG handled herself very well it really was designed to make her look bad and make Abbott look like an irresistible force. Labor should only agree to a debate with questions from veteran media types.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:05 am
Anyway off to work.
by Gweneth on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:05 am
Gweneth
Is it finished?
by victoria on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:05 am
My Say
Bemused is a pumped up arrogant twit.
by Mick Collins on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:05 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
David Bradbury, Lindsay’s just given the most eloquent & definitely support for PM Gillard. He was furious #MSMhacks said he’s an undecided
by The Finnigans on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:05 am
Mick Collins @ 1388
I accept their word that “all bets are off” if a leadership change occurs and consider it a fair statement and unremarkable.
You have claimed they went further and said wtte there would be an election. You are the only source I have seen for that claim so I very much doubt it.
You resort to bare faced lies making false claims in relation to what I said. Your credibility is zero.
by bemused on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:07 am
my say, bemused even enjoy bullying himself.
by The Finnigans on Feb 21, 2012 at 11:07 am