Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition
Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Confessions
I actually see very little difference in policy between the Rudd and Gillard camps but what little there is has me firmly on Rudd’s side.
ALL the current policy initiatives originated under Rudd so I just do not get this whole policy stuff
On the other hand Gillard’s poor call on Palestine and on uranium to India leave me very cold.
The only NEW initiative – due to Wilkie is the pokies stuff where I think Gillard and Rudd probably agree.
by daretotread on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:08 pm
I’ve never said you are. I have however taken issue with your accusing Dee of hypocritically withholding criticism of the people behind Rudd Removal when you weren’t commenting here at the time, and so therefore are unlikely to know who expressed what about the issue.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Last time I looked my hand had 5 fingers, thus the two you cited are amongst those I’ve counted. I grant him much more than those two.
BUT on several big issues he balked. Opps and media see that they have the ability crush him more easily than they might Gillard. Indeed, she has withstood MORE attacks than Rudd did and that terrifies them.
by jenauthor on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Haven’t bothered writing for a week as not much has happened to change my view that Gillard will neuter Rudd without firing a shot. He doesn’t seem to have the numbers to launch a credible spill (unless he has the 30% needed to bring it on he hasn’t got anything) and Gillard has absolutely no need to give him credibility by offering a spill.
Almost snorted my coffee all over my keyboard when I saw Massola’s creative list including names like Garrett. Schoolboy error. Not in the least surprised that he was very publicly out supporting the PM soon after along with plenty of others. Split in thirds my rear. Gillard has the bulk of the caucus locked in.
One thing that has changed is my contention that Rudd could possibly drag it out until July. Whether by accident or design he has had his time to bring it on brought forward dramatically. I’d say if he hasn’t challenged by the end of March now that even the slowest in the gallery will have simply written him off as full of piss and wind. You can’t keep promising and not delivering without your credibility ending up in tatters. He’ll just become a joke around the gallery “eh Michelle, you still getting the calls from Kevin? When’s the challenge this time? Ha Ha”
As for the Ruddstoration fans out there talking down the chances of Oaky or Windsor just throwing in their lot with the Libs because it would result in an instant election, well you might not know how the constitution works regarding Senate elections, but I’d bet London to a brick the indies do along with a large majority of the Labor caucus. If Rudd gets in and they decide they’re not playing his game they can quite easily switch sides. No election will ensue for at least 6 months and probably significantly longer, because that is how long it would take to line up a double dissolution trigger.
Abbott wouldn’t go straight to an election if he had the confidence of the house because he can’t call a Senate election until August next year. Much better for him to move into Kirribilli House and start chucking bills at the Senate and daring them to block them. At worst he’s force to wait until August to run a normal election, or better for him a DD late this year. Of course Windsor and Oaky could trade a ceasefire in their seats for the support, and they could also make it clear to the Liberals that a more moderate leader would see them instantly on the treasury benches if they wanted to get all Machiavellian, but even on their worst case scenarios they would have many months supporting the new Abbott government to significantly repair their standing amongst their voters and give themselves a fighting chance of re-election (almost a certainty for Windsor I would say).
Not saying it’s guaranteed, but it doesn’t seem that Rudd is all that popular with either so it’s very high stakes poker to take the risk. The Labor caucus won’t be betting the house on that roughy.
by ratsak on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:12 pm
mari
Saw the comments, I just don’t know what I’ll be doing – Family stuff (good stuff, not problems) is taking up a fair bit of time lately. I’ll just wait and see what happens.
by leone on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:14 pm
The assumption that a Rudd return would lead to s sutained improvment in Labor’s fortunes ignores one thing.
As Tony Windsor and Bob Green both identified today, media partisanship has played big part in reaching this point. That would not change with a Rudd resurrection. All that would happen is the same elements of the media who wanted a different outcome to the election would start in on Rudd and confect a leadership crisis involving, for example Shorten.
Anyone who is denying there is any media bias at all playing a part in this situation is as wrong as those who claim it is only media bias that is to blame.
by roaldan1000 on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Rudd doesn’t get the policy stuff either. He thought you just had to keep a few journos like Hartcher and Grattan on the drip feed, make an announcement each day, and the rest would be magically taken care of.
Rudd was reportedly working behind the scenes last year to try to undermine pokies reform.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:18 pm
jenauthor 1737
A very good post. You hit the nail squarely on the head. The MSM have adopted a divide-and-conquor strategy on behalf of their masters right from the start.
First praising Gillard when she was the deputy.
Now demonising her. Building up this faux “challenge” – successfully, it would seem. They have the big Cheese believing it.
And if a change of leadership, the cycle will be repeated – backwards.
The media take us for fools. And you know what? We are.
I think we should all stand on our chairs and chant in unison:
I am a fool, I am a fool, I am a fool …
by dedalus on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:19 pm
While I am not saying it is over, it has been interesting to see how quickly the “campaign” to bring back Rudd has fallen away. Gillard has been very astute so far. I don’t think people should underestimate her nous.
My hope is that once she has negotiated this difficult passage, she will turn both barrels on Abbott.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Confessions
People are commenting NOW. I do not pretend to know what was said in early 2010 but if Dee wishes to comment on leaks or gossip NOW then she needs to look at the people who leaked in the past also. The problem with leaks is it is often tit for tat.
At the risk of repeating myself, I think if the 2010 plotters had kept their tongues firmly in their heads and NOT said nasty things about Rudd then there would probably not have been retaliation from Rudd supporters. I am quite convinced that the Gillards most serious mistake (or at least failure) because rather that letting her be seen a saviour she was seen as “mean girl”. The public do not give a b*** er about the anti Gillard leaks because they are seen a s fair retaliation.
Fair is fair.
by daretotread on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Love to be a fly on the wall next time Rudd and Wilkie get together.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:26 pm
ratsak 1753
Enjoyed reading yr post man.
by dedalus on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Really too late for that. If Rudd has a mind for the leadership then he will be much more dangerous on the backbench now where he will feel free to comment on government policy, and no doubt his sacking to the backbench.
It would escalate matters further and just end giving Gillard another public beating. Whilst they may think they have cause to sack him the general public would be perplexed an think it another grubby knifing because he was seen as a threat.
Paradoxically sacking him would probably raise his support levels even higher.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:28 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:28 pm
DTT
I don’t know who was responsible, but the leaks against Gillard aired by Oakes during the election campaign were the worst acts of bastardry I have seen in Australian politics.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Dedalus how ihave enjoyed your posts today,, je, janice, dee. Connie, ratsak, and all our
Other great worriers,
Thank you,
SOME HOW WE SHOULD LINK U ALL TO TWITTER,
by my say on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Pleased it is good stuff, will let you know in plenty of time
by mari on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:31 pm
TP
That may explain Gillard’s minimalist and restrained approach to the issue to date, even though the MSM are baying for some action.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:32 pm
On a policy front, what we’re all forgetting is that it wasn’t just Rudd did this or that, and it wasn’t just Gillard did this or that, it was THE GOVERNMENT did this or that.
This isn’t about CELEBRITIES, folks.
This is about stopping the tories from torpedoing the NBN, sinking the carbon pricing initiative, giving back to Clive and Gina the money that rightly belongs to us, the peepels.
And all the other good stuff coming down the pipe.
Get it?
by dedalus on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Eurogeden
Didnt that torie on tony jones
Say europe will get worse
by my say on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Given that the real reasons for Rudd Removal haven’t really been fully explained, it’s a stretch to pull the ‘they said mean things about Rudd’ card. The PM has been very careful not to talk about Rudd’s corrosive personality, poor interpersonal and management skills, and his inability to get things done.
Instead the PM has taken hits to her own credibility for shielding voters from the truth about Rudd’s leadership. I get that you are mortified by what happened in 2010 (as most of us were), but you should at least make an effort to look critically and objectively at what’s taken place since.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:35 pm
my say 1765
Too kind. I’m chuffed.
by dedalus on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Kidding of course. She just copped a public beating to her credibility and that of Labor. Maybe that was the strategy behind everything, who knows, but it will serve to weaken her further. The next kerfufle will just get people thinking why the heck she doesn’t just po.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Something’s been bothering me bludgers.
I keep hearing from posters like TLM and TP and others that many in the electorate “hate” or “despise” Juilia Gillard, or more mildly would “never vote for” her.
Since this is the Pollbludger blog, I assume they must have seen a reputable opinion poll somewhere that gives this information but for the life of me I haven’t been able to find it. I can find lots about “trust” for all sorts of politicians but, hey, they’re politicians; what do you expect people to say?
Can anyone help in my search?
by ajm on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Confessions at 1770, that is right. Gillard has been regularly criticised for not “explaining” the reasons for Rudd’s removal. She of course is doing the right thing to stay stum.
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Unfortunately I think you are right, they were caught between a rock and a hard place, the bank are so heavily exposed that if there are defaults they would crash, but just throwing money at the weak nations is quite scary. And even worst the resentment it is causing see Greece, is even worst, I have Greek friends in Athens and the Islands, talk to then quite a bit. Going over to the islands in June and they have told me not to stay in Athens if I can get out of it.
by mari on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:38 pm
A Dixer to Thomas Paine: What’s your advice to Gillard?
by triton on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Well that was their problem, they had no explanation as there was no reason. So they were left trying the hardest to character assassinate him instead. That went down well.
See the error in their plan was to assume Gillard would be so popular as the new PM that Labor’s TPP would soar. People however eventually came to the conclusion of wtf.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Bradbury thinking about a Gillard tatt. Windsor repeats warning about an election if Labor changes Leader.
This Leadership challenge is all over. Rudd has lost.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2012/s3435572.htm
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Dtt
I’m gobsmacked!
You just don’t get it.
Rudd has been undermining the current PM in a minority government.
Minority government, minority government, minority government!
The Labor party does not have the luxury of numbers to deal with this crap especially in light of the big reforms that are coming up against much opposition.
Now, Rudd can either sit back and exact his personal vendetta against the PM & cause the downfall of government in which we will all pay the price or he can start proving that he has indeed changed and can operate within a team environment.
by Dee on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Lynchpin:
It is of course the professional thing to do. But it shits me that in return she gets white-anted and undermined.
If nothing else, that speaks volumes to me about Rudd’s personality.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:42 pm
confessions 1770
Good point.
On a related matter: Did the MSM say that Clarke “knifed” Ponting? Of course not.
The “faceless men” replaced Ricky. The selectors.
Hands up who knows who the selectors are?
I thought so.
If you asked a simple question like that to a journalist you’d get a blank stare.
F***wits! Can’t even write properly.
by dedalus on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:42 pm
The ALP caucus sacked Rudd, Julia was made an offer she could not refuse, take the position of PM or we will find someone else!.
Get OVER it!.
by 1934pc on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:42 pm
The Political Sword has a very interesting post on Abbott’s lies and distortions.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2012/02/19/Tony-Abbott-we-are-sick-of-your-lies.aspx
It makes it hard to understand how he gets away with his liar campaign against the PM.
The hacks in the msm allow him to spin this line endlessly despite that he is a confessed serial liar and that there is overwhelming evidence to support this admission.
by Bill B. on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:44 pm
I on a number of occasions in the past suggested how Gillard could improve her standing and keep Rudd under control. And that was to work very closely with him on international stuff, be seen together often, and overseas. Make it look as though they closely collaborating. If he was so popular then she could use that to her advantage and benefit.
Nobody liked that idea. But I reckon it would have helped a lot.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Rudd will not go to the backbench, his ego is too big for that, unless he is sacked.
by The Finnigans on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:46 pm
There are none more “inside” than the public servants in government departments who, if their work environment is pleasant and their worth is recognised, button their lips. Abuse them, however, and they have the means to hit back.
Forgive me, but I find that statement hilarious.
by janice2 on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Err no. We already know that she was aware of events a full two weeks before hand. It is bs to suggest staff were drafting acceptance speeches for the spoils of a knifing and Gillard being totally unaware. I don’t any here can be that naive.
She could have said no easily, or stuck to the deal she made with Rudd during the process. They would have had no choice, and Rudd would have won a challenge against another candidate if they chose to proceed.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:48 pm
I got a funny feeling the Pain Engine has accepted the fact that #Ruddstoration has fizzled out before it even get started.
by The Finnigans on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Bill Abbott keeps getting a clear run because every time it looks like the focus is going to come on to him someone stirs the media up about leadership and credibility issues within the government. So Labor only has themselves to blame unless the LNP has a spy deep within Labor. I can’t recall a time in my lifetime where an incumbent government seems so hell-bent on destroying itself. It’s extraordinary and hard to understand.
by DavidWH on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Tony Windsor says it all, really:
by Lynchpin on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:49 pm
This is all amusing, many of you are assuming that the MP’s are making statements off the top of their heads, and heart felt….hello, if your faction tells you to do something you do it.
by centaur009 on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Confessions
Surely you are a little unfair. Rudd had just two years in the job, a GFC and a hostile senate.
Remember that the policy work and planning an legislation – ie all the public service work for the NBN, ETS plain packaging legislation and many others was actually done in Rudd’s time. Not sure whether you have done policy and legislation drafting but I have so here goes on a reasonable – actually FAST timetable
Look when a new government comes in it takes 4 weeks to sort out staff, office an priorities.
Then to get legislation or big reforms there is at LEAST 24 months of consultation and planning –
Draft initial white paper 4 months minimum and closer to six. There is lots of technical data to collect and review to prepare any major reform. Sometimes you need to recruit experts. Two years for this task is common and anything less than 6 months miraculous.
Get approval for its public release – usually from cabinet – one month
Consult on white paper 3 months minimum – consultation drafts usually are around for 6 weeks then there is another 4 to review comments etc then to write it all up – This is a public servant task and it takes forever. You need to analyse every one of hundreds of submissions and sort them into particular categories etc
Go to Cabinet to get approval on what you want to do – 1 month Minimum
Start drafting legislation 2 months minimum
Consult on the nitty gritty of legislation (internal public service) two months minimum – this is VERY time consuming and involves endless committees and small meetings, often on the finer points of the legislation
Start consulting on the legislation with “stakeholders” including independent, and various community, industry, unions etc. This takes at least two more moths at best
When you get close to a final version then it is back to cabinet for approval another month
Then after everything is OK you still have another 4-8 weeks as a draft bill moves through the system.
So if every minister under Kevin Rudd had moved with maximum speed and efficiency big reforms were not going to start happening until about 21 months into the term or 24 if you allow Xmas breaks.
No since there are always SOME delays it is really unreasonable and in fact rather ignorant to criticise Rudd for not getting reforms through faster. ONLY in the period Feb -June 2010 could he even have been expected to deliver any major reforms.
And that is avoiding the delaying impact of the GFC.
by daretotread on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Labor…Between a rock and a hard place
_______________________
The sad fact of all this debate is that we know two things;
! Rudd is/was an incomptent control-freak who wreaked a fairly good Govt. and had no one on his side when the axe fell.
The political class knows this but the masses out there don’t yet get it…if they ever will?
2..Gillard is a compentent administrator but accident prone with the ability tp adopt policies on some issues like her statements on Assenge and Palestine which aiienate small but key groups…and a tendancy to brown -nose the USA on every issue.like her cringing meetings with Obama
Menzies used to be like that with the Poms and Howard with Bush !..it some sort of charactefr weakness in our national psyche !
She also just misses key issues. like the public dislike of the banks.
Why hasn’t she been bashing the daylights out of the bankers ..this week of all weeks.. would have provided a diversion ..threaten then with regulation ,at .al..summon them to Caberra..slap the ANZ for it’s”Love Boat Cruise” for the Big Boys
..and why not go with public opinion and announce a withdrawal frm the deeply unpopular war in Af’stan. we all know that the young men who have died there have died in vain but few will speak this truth…the Taliban will soon be back in power….and that’s the view of many US writers.
.or do the US “monitors ” like “Captain America “Arbid have a hold on her.
My feeling is that from many comments I hear she is at the end lof the line.the Labor voters have just given ..the next polls will be vefry bad I suspect..abd will ignite the debate again
‘If Gillard was ahead in the polls there would be no Rudd challenge..the polls generate the debate
This has been the fate of almost woman leader in this counry…a statement which arouses a torrent of abuse when I make it ..see also Kenelly/Kirner/ Lawrence and soon…Bligh !
…but facts are stubbon things!
..
but what to do now ?????????
that’s the question
any election will bring on a catastrophe for Labor
but what MAN is available to fill the gap !
by deblonay on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:50 pm
I can tell you who will be better off.
Pensioners
Part-Time Workers
Middle – low income workers
People who earn less than 100K p/a
so what if a Howard ‘battler’ is a few sheckles worse off a week ?
by Mick Collins on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Bemused
Goodness, if this was it, and she made this mistake every single day as prime minister, it still would not justify the poll ratings or the hatred some people have for her.
She is obviously not incompetent, only Tony Abbott accuses her of that. Her government is obviously not ‘dysfunctional’, on the contrary it is described as a well oiled machine. She is accused of not having a rock star persona. But she is not a rock star, she is PM.
The poll numbers can only be attributed to a negative advertising campaign prvoided gratis by the MSM to the Liberals.
Despite this handicap, they have not been able to bury her, and she is in fact steadily gaining ground.
by JohD on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Bill B 1783
Everybody in Australia should be FORCED to read that.
by 1934pc on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:52 pm
So you have *the skill to interpret what {you} hear.*
You haven’t got any of the following *interpretations* right so far ?
I see your *interpretation skills* as consistently being the wrong end of the stick.
Over and over and over and over….
But keep them coming.
by dave on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:53 pm
From the link at 1778:
You have to ask why do we have a press gallery? How can something so easy to check (ie, just call him) not have been checked before publishing?
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:53 pm
And a handful of men decided they wanted tol maintain their power over the party and set about over 12 months the undermining the first Labor PM in over a decade, very early in his term. Very early very early, first Labor PM in a decade, decade….first Labor PM in a decade, decade…
by Thomas Paine on Feb 21, 2012 at 3:53 pm