Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition
Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
madcyril
I thought we’d all agreed that Mark Simkin is an over-inflated balloon?
by lizzie on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:11 pm
5 times – so far.
by Dan Gulberry on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:11 pm
lizzie
mark simpering is a bobblehead
by gusface on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Thats what worries me,quite a few of the MPs who I emailed have replied or at least a will reply ASAP but nothing from Mike at all
by mari on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:12 pm
G
Pleased to hear about Mr Kelly’s loyalties.
by Boerwar on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Don’t the dolts in caucus who don’t support the PM understand that they are working for Abbott? A steady heart is what’s needed until the legislation is all bedded down.
by lizzie on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:13 pm
In a challenge now Rudd would not get all those votes, maybe only 20, as not all those “supporters” would want to be voting against the PM to “wound” her 2 stage challenge style, and in doing so wound the government and themselves. He does not have that level of personal commitment or confidence. This isn’t about ideology, beliefs or factions.
by Leroy on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:14 pm
lizzie @ 2034
I gather you are hinting that I think it is a property that only men can possess.
Well let me disappoint you.
Maggie Thatcher had it. Christine Lagarde (IMF MD) has it. Hilary Clinton has it. Carmen Lawrence had it. Kristina Keneally had it.
by bemused on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Boerwar
The meeja counting system goes like this.
Journo. “If Kevin Rudd were to return as leader would you be prepared to work with him ?.”
Labor Pollie X “I would work with whoever was the leader of our parliamentary team”
Journo conclusion. “Pollie X solidly in Rudd camp”
by poroti on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:15 pm
OC,
The fergusons are not mates they’re brothers! Both sons of the legendary ex Deputy Premier Jack Ferguson.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Most of the journos now have skin in the game having made big calls, what do they do when it all starts to deflate – try and give it a push along – for the nth time.
Much much safer to just report stuff factually as it happens ?
by dave on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:16 pm
bemused
No, I am aware that you don’t think the PM has it. That’s all.
On the rest, not sure I agree with you, but won’t argue.
by lizzie on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Funny how 60/40 to Gillard means she’s doomed
&
55/45 against ALP means she’s doomed.
Which is it?
By this reckoning, Labor is going to skate the next election in with a massive majority!
by jenauthor on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Gus
Mike was very careful to say he backed the PM of the day, but I don’t recall he necessarily said Gillard.
Either way this is going to mortally wound the government.
by Dee on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Excellent comment, Rod! I’m of the view that for a lot of people (men esp), ‘prime ministerial’ has become a euphemism for ‘male’.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:17 pm
pgusface
Posted Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
b
mike kelly is a JG man
he has constantly stateed so on twitter
from my reading the rump is still two]
Thank you gus, I didn’t see that, I thought he has been very quiet the last couple of days and there was a tweet a couple of days ago tell me it not treu Mike you support Rudd or something like that,
by mari on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Mike Kelly has said on twitter yesterday in response to a query he supports the PM.
by Leroy on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:18 pm
lizzie
I must have missed that memo.
by madcyril on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:19 pm
…or if they say “I support the Prime Minister” they are probably in the challenger camp, whereas if they say “I support …..” and use the name they are probably in the incumbent’s camp
by Mod Lib on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:19 pm
I would say its a jourallistic list.
Does any one believe them jouralists and connected are the last time i saw a list
down the bottom of respectec positions
Gees i am glad ny lot oppted for one of top 5
by my say on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:19 pm
wrong poroti. like bradbury, they just dont ask and count you as undecided
by Andrew on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:19 pm
confessions
@ 2064
Interesting that both Thatcher and NZ female PM had voice coaching to deepen their tones. Supports your point.
by lizzie on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:21 pm
I asked him via tweet Dee — he said he’s 100% behind the PM. Same Ed Husic.
by jenauthor on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Mod Lib
Fluent in journo logic eh ?
by poroti on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:22 pm
madcyril
Nice to see you again!!
by lizzie on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Completely disagree: Thatcher, Helen Clarke, Gandhi, ….as far back as Bandaranaike
The problem with Gillard is Gillard. Blaming her unpopularity on her gender is what is actually sexist.
by Mod Lib on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Mike was very careful to say he backed the PM of the day, but I don’t recall he necessarily said Gillard.
he did actually
Either way this is going to mortally wound the government.
How so?
by gusface on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:23 pm
cyril,
Mark Mandy Rice Simkin.
by This little black duck on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Mod Lib
10 votes is about 10% of caucus. So following your logic here, Abbott is also doomed – just 10% needed to change!
by Oscar on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
So it’s he said, she said according to our esteemed media?
Again I ask: why do we have a parliamentary press gallery?
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Andrew
Yes indeed, the “undecided” are those that they haven’t bothered to ask
by poroti on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Geez u wonder why people here dont get
Rudd would not work with amy one no time
Ind, walk out no confidence vote no gov,
Rudd opp leader for 20 years
There is a lotof very T H I C K peole on this blogg
by my say on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
btw
I could name at least 15 mps who are JG supporters
and that is just from twitter
by gusface on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Mod Lib @ 2075
No. Not admitting that her lack of popularity owes something to her gender is pretending there is no sexism in Oz.
by lizzie on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Mod Lib
Not to mention Golda Meir who managed to be Alpha Dog in a pretty tough school !
by poroti on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
So now we’re descending into the same ridiculous semantic nonsense as the media:
“PM”? Which, the current or the past? = maybe Gillard, but might secretly mean Rudd
“I’m not talking about internal ALP business” = I’m with Rudd but can’t say so or I’m now with Gillard but can’t say so. Or I don’t want to talk about it.
by jenauthor on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
What can I say?
They didn’t have oxygen in the delivery rooms back when I was born…
by Mod Lib on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
my say
dey aint thick
just have constricted brains
by gusface on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Thanks lizzie
It’s been a while, but Poll Bludger always manages to draw me back somehow!
by madcyril on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
there are lot of big interests in rolling this government: polluters, miners, media players, gaming clubs, big tobacco
any wonder the MSM is having convulsions
by Andrew on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
1653 dtt
Hmm…. Who was it sent out his errand boy to count the numbers and check on Gillard? Relationships do depend on a level of trust. If that breaks down what happens? Despite the innuendo and beatups in the attempted 4c ambush, there’s no evidence that it is any different from her timeline of events. That was when she claims to have pulled the plug.
The only gossip so far emerging suggests that her resistance was the stumbling block to a revolt. There was no other credible leader they could put up. Personally I thought it was a bad call at the time, but all the chaos probably led to the conclusion that it was ungovernable. And the then PM’s health might have added to it.
Well, that seems to be occurring. Crean is the only one to publicly call Rudd on his whiteanting. Only a little while back you were regarding him as a possible compromise candidate. If he was acting for the PM, perhaps you can argue your point. OTOH he could be aware of Rudd’s long history of this, which is documented in the Latham Diaries.
Face it, somebody has been feeding the media these stories and it aint Gillard. And on that, Grattan, Hartcher and Oakes have long been on the Rudd feed. Not a coincidence at all that Oakes revealed the leaks that sabotaged Gillard’s momentum in the campaign. Nor that Grattan and Hartcher led the ‘This Must be Settled’ meme to try to bring the media all in to this ‘crisis’. There was nothing ‘on’ – just Rudd team whispers.
The sweetest irony is that most innocent/naive MP, Cheeseman helped spring the whole thing prematurely by giving his name to a piece. At least he had the courage of his convictions, which is more than can be said for that SL factional leader that urged him to do the interview. Not all the faceless men are on Gillard’s side by the looks of things. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cheeseman crosses back to Gillard.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
You are not going to believe this but I started typing her name but then couldnt remember exactly how to spell it and couldnt be bothered googling so I just rubbed her out!!!
by Mod Lib on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:27 pm
my say
The pollies who are terrified of losing their seats and are convinced that Rudd can work miracles are ignoring everything else, in particular the good of the Labor Party.
by lizzie on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:28 pm
“3rd, 5th and 6th would come closest IMHO”
Worth bearing in mind that 3rd for most of his career would have killed for JG’s average polls when it comes to “preferred PM” and by the end of things his office was sounding a bit too much like Rudd’s, if Watson is to be believed.
Fraser & Whitlam were really the last of the old 19th Century “leaders from above”. I sometimes wonder whether part of JG’s problem is that she has bit of the same demagoguery in her veins, though it is much more muted in her case. I sometimes wonder whether either a Whitlam or a Fraser would be electable these days. Hawke changed the game with his “all things to all people” approach.
Of the lot, Gillard is without much doubt the best administrator we’ve seen for decades. I disagree with her vehemently on some things that are dear to my heart, but in many ways her political style is actually more in the mold of the three you like than of the frippery of Hawke, the mediocrity of Howard or the smouldering puffery of Rudd.
But, as Lizzie says, she is a woman, and maybe such things aren’t so obvious or valued accordingly.
by Rod Hagen on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Brace yourselves! Toolman’s up!
by jenauthor on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
There is sexism, I agree.
If you really want to know what “minority” issue is hampering Gillard most it is probably her being an atheist actually, not her gender.
I have no doubt whatsoever that being the first female PM got her over the line (women voters voting for her). That group would have been massively larger than the group of old fashioned men who would have voted ALP but decided not to because of the gender of the PM.
by Mod Lib on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Am i dumb or is 60 a clear majority of confirmed votes? So a challenge is doomed? I only got an A in VCE maths so maybe I’m working it out wrong??
by Andrew on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
You don’t think there are a core of blokes out there who wouldn’t vote Labor because its leader is a woman? I think you’re very naive.
The PM has been on the receiving end of blatant misogynist attacks from Liberals, the media, and even self-identified Labor voters – Just look at evan/TLM’s Facebook comments about her and her domestic arrangements.
by confessions on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Interesting to see John Faulkner in the Rudd camp. He is a man who knows what o’clock it is, and not one who does things he thinks will trash the party. Maybe something for the bludgers to think about.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Mod Lib
Hope I spelt it right then !! In future Mod Lib just post and damn the torpedoes
by poroti on Feb 21, 2012 at 7:32 pm