Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition
Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
At the airport, waiting for Kevin.
by Scarpat on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Felicity Davey. She really doesn’t have to try sexy.
by This little black duck on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Lazarus O’Lemon?
by Boerwar on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Peacock or Keating, that is the question. Peacock got less than 30% of the vote and was dispatched to history by Fraser. Keating got 40% and went on to dispatch Hawk.
If Rudd gets less than 30% he is history. There will be people like Thomas Pain bleating but nothing of relevance.
by fredn on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:31 pm
BW, Have you set the Singapore chapter of Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc in the Santosa Island Resort Casino as yet?
by The Finnigans on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:31 pm
I have heard Heather Ewart – TP, A Green and others opinionate that JG can’t lead Labor to the next election.
Now, as I don’t have Heather’s phone number perhaps you could give us a balanced view, TP, as to why she can’t.
You keep saying it – as do the other tory hacks who come here.
Substantiate this prediction.
As most, if not all, of you tea leaf reading has been wrong so far – not than anyone else’s has been much better, I don’t know why you think you can pick 18 months away so accurately.
As the events of the past 2-3 hours have shown, a week, let alone 18 months is an eternity in politics.
Incidentally, who gives a stuff about the polls right at this moment.
Despite Tony Abbott wetting himself there is not an election any time soon.
by Tricot on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:32 pm
The Finnigans
Surely you guys are more Tiger Balm Gardens ?
by poroti on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:33 pm
I imagine most Liberals do.
by confessions on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Let me be the first to suggest this:
Rudd will not nominate for the leadership come the ballot on Monday.
He will spend the weekend doing the numbers and discover they are less this weekend than there was last weekend.
He has fatally wounded himself by taking this course of action and will not face the humiliation of the public knowing how low his support is.
by Danny Lewis on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:33 pm
V
I know, I know.
by Boerwar on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Bloody hell.
Swan has just let Rudd have it with both barrels.
by Danny Lewis on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Says he has no Labor values.
by confessions on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Wow Wayne Swan has laid in the size 16 steel capped hobnails into Kevin Rudd. Not sure if I have heard a more scathing attack on a politician before !!!!
by poroti on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:34 pm
One small bright spot: After a few minutes in the spotlight today, Dennis Shanahan is once again the dunce of the press gallery.
by triton on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:35 pm
DL
I predict after this weeks conduct by Rudd, he has even less support than he did last time.
People are underestimating his treacherous behaviour
by victoria on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:35 pm
I wouldn’t be too confident about that actually.
by Mod Lib on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Can’t even begin to make a credible challenge will be the reason, expect a lot of “For the good of the party, yadda yadd yadda” as the given reason.
by fredn on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:36 pm
WOW Swan dumps a bucketload on Rudd…
by Mod Lib on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:36 pm
JG put out a statement:
1. He done good, played fine.
2. He didn’t tell me he had problems.
3. He did not give me notice before he spat the dummy.
by This little black duck on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:36 pm
ltep
I keep saying Hacker Candidate.
I can’t see either Rudd or Gillard making it to the next election.
Crean is too dirtied with this and Shorten shares the opprobrium.
Combet or Smith look good to me but I’m probably just indulging in wishful thinking.
by Diogenes on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Danny Lewis
Both barrels, nah he used this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmyNqO6LAvQ
by poroti on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Swan has just laid the boot into the gent who has almost twice the popularity of Gillard. Nice work.
by rummel on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Swan as the attack dog, who would have ever thought it.
by fredn on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:38 pm
looks like our man Slipper is a student of Chinese philosophy.
wonder what the Ratf$cking Chinese comrades think of developments?
by sprocket_ on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Which program is Swan on? he’s picked his side, then?
by Mr Squiggle on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:38 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Good on Swannie to basically saying i wont serve under Rudd
by The Finnigans on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Finns
They are going funny here. All sorts of social initiatives and anti foreign workers and anti foreign house investors.
Too much of the old heart of gold stuff…
I understand the PAP got a bit of a fright in the last elections.
The peeps were not happy.
by Boerwar on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Can we all at all least agree that K Rudd is no P Keating?
by Rossmore on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:39 pm
William as a mum and a an oma i was less than impressed about what unhad to’say re kessa
She recently lost her sister.’
Perhaps she could have been an editor not a sub editor if she had the same chances i n life as u have
Hecs, was not around in our day, hisrory treats e ery generation in different ways
Your coming in to the time when editors may be even a thing of the past.
by my say on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Oops, that post did take the first time after all. A pox on Crikey.
by triton on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Link to Swan’s release anyone?
by geezlouise on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Black Caviar is going into a paddock for 2 months. She and Kevvie should spend some quality time together.
by This little black duck on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:40 pm
MrS:
TV is reading out a Swan statement. Latika will probably link to it on twitter, if she hasn’t already done so.
by confessions on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:41 pm
My prediction: Shorto will be making his move this time next year.
by lefty e on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:41 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:42 pm
I think they’re trying to blast Rudd right out of the party and hope no-one else goes with him.
by ajm on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:42 pm
This is why it is so easy for Rudd to strategise against these people, the are so simple, reactive and ham fisted. Swan vents his spleen and spite against Rudd thinking it will be fine, but at the same time is sticking knives into his own party. Making it more likely they will need a replacement PM at some stage.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:42 pm
Slipper better start sweet talking Abbott about being lib speaker. He will not even have time to gets his new curtains dry cleaned for the first time
by rummel on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:42 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:42 pm
Oh, yes. A pity you had to put both in the one sentence.
by triton on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Swan statement:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dOROR3b3iUk9qIGYao2dUflQhFy2QPjAadS73Sdn9JU/edit?pli=1
by confessions on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Spacey,
With that link you done good too.
by This little black duck on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:44 pm
I wonder how long it will be before the psychological assessment of Swan is provided by a willing backbencher!
by Mod Lib on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:44 pm
Lee Rhiannon: the Greens seek to pick up disaffected Labor voters, and now there will be more of them.
by confessions on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm
K Rudd is no P Keating. K Rudd is just another show pony that will go the same way as the last.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1301&dat=19840607&id=In1WAAAAIBAJ&sjid=3-YDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4310,3445246
by fredn on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm
I imagine that Mr Rudd shares Mr Swan’s views about the desirability of Mr Swan working to Prime Minister Rudd.
by Boerwar on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm
“However for too long, Kevin Rudd has been putting his own self-interest ahead of the interests of the broader labour movement and the country as a whole, and that needs to stop.”
How can say this now. Gillard and labor have had nothing but praise for the hard working FM.
The foreign minister who lost his way………
by rummel on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Rudd now looks (as Victoria put it so nicely) “duplicitous” – to say the least! Also, his career as a Foreign Minister in any government is now over – who would ever trust an FM who was so obviously at odds with his own government that he would undermine them to the extent of almost losing them an election?
Yeah, I’d sign a treaty brokered by that bloke!
Also, some people haven’t yet caught on to how duplicitous this makes Coalition look – and how stupid it makes Abbott look. He couldn’t even win the election when one of the most senior members of the government was effectively working for him! Do you think the Coalition didn’t know about this? I’d be fairly confident the journalists being briefed by Rudd probably went straight to the Coalition – which is (of course) what Rudd wanted. No wonder they figured they wouldn’t need any actual policies to get elected. They were expecting Kevin to roll Julia, knowing that they in turn would easily be able to beat Kevin once they’d revealed the “Rudd dirt file”. I’d call that “duplicitous” behaviour.
By the way, did anyone catch Windsor on the radio this afternoon describing Abbott as “unstable”? Delicious!
by Oscar on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm
The net result of all this will I think be.
Gillard wins the challenge. But the results of the past week destroy her totally in the public view and tank Labor’s TPP to even lower levels, and chronically. Beyond the point of no return. Rudd is most likely to maintain his public support, if not increase it further.
In an election year it will seem like labor is going to get the mother of all hidings regardless if there is a Crean or Shorten etc….. and there will be this bloke who has more personal support than any other politician in the country.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm
RN tomorrow
Fran: So, it has come to pass just as you predicted?
Michelle: Why did you ask me that f…ing question?!
by This little black duck on Feb 22, 2012 at 8:46 pm