Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition
Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I think they’re (shudder) living in sin BH.
I agree, though. Top Bloke.
by smithe on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Loving these policy breakdowns in Essential. Something good has to happen from all this, but likely not until next year.
by warwick on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:40 pm
BH,
I feel like hopping a flight, going into the ALP party room, kicking some butt and tell them all to grow up.
by Space Kidette on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Sorry, got the name of the President wrong.
NO. Phoning the President was OKAY
Timor Leste’s constitution is similar to the US constitution where diplomatic relations are the province of the President.
Can you imagine Canberra calling the US Congress re AS, rather than Obama, to discuss AS policy? Gimme a break.
You can, and I can, turn it every which way but loose, but the fact of the matter is, it wasn’t the GROSS faux pas it was made out to be.
by kezza2 on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:42 pm
SK – I envy you those days of seeing the kids enjoying Mum’s baking. Nowdays I make one and hide 1/2 in the freezer before OH gets too carried away. I tell him old people can’t have too much excitement too quickly!
by BH on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Yes. there seems to be a fundamental disconnect between current PV and TPP polling and the policy breakdowns. Something’s gotta give.
And given that the Opposition is for scrapping each of these the highly popular policies, my money is on the voting intentions changing.
by smithe on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Leone
The party with the most seats doesn’t form the government. If it did Labor would have been in power throughout the majority of the 50s and 60s. The government is determined by the confidence of the house and Windsor, Wilkie and Oakeshott have a big part to play in that confidence.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:44 pm
OC
I think you meant “votes” not seats.
by lizzie on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Leone
Probably warning Rudd to back off.
by Lynchpin on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:49 pm
BH,
You could always ask you OH to cook you one!
by Space Kidette on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:50 pm
No worries SK – my Branch members are doing it for you collectively and individually.
by BH on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:50 pm
BH
What is your reading of how it will play out?
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:51 pm
SK – how do I do a smiley ‘laughing my silly face off.’
by BH on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:52 pm
BH,
I can’t tell you how reassuring that is.
by Space Kidette on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Lets be thankful we aren’t in Frank’s branch!
by WeWantPaul on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Lizzie
Throughout the 50s and60s Labor was frequently the largest party in parliament. The conservatives ruled through a coalition of 2 parties
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Leonine said the largest party in parliament forms the government – in my first answer I mistakenly said most which could imply a majority I meant largest
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:58 pm
With the invaluable help of the DLP, OC. Let’s not forget them.
by smithe on Feb 20, 2012 at 5:59 pm
So if perchance Rudd becomes leader again most PBer’s won’t vote Labor because how could such an individual gain your votes again. Who will you all vote for Greens or Indies.
Given that Bruce Hawker is Tony Windor’s cousin wouldn’t you think that both Tony and Rob have a pretty good idea what’s going on and who they will go with. I suspect both Katter and Wilkie Bandt and Tony and Rob will all join the Rudd Party giving Labor a healthy buffer to deal with say a Perrett resignation.Crean etc can all resign as they have comfortable majorities and Labor would win such by elections without problem. Perrett’s seat would be a goner however for Labor.
It might not occur to most PBer’s at all that a healthy majority of voters are totally finished with Gillard and stopped listening to her .Most of caucus already know this the only issue is succession planning as the party is nowhere near as unpopular as Gillard and they could win in 2013 with several other candidates each of whom will be subtly waiting to be drafted into the position without blood on their hands.
by stanny on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:01 pm
No DLP member was ever elected to the HoR. The initial members who broke away were all defeated at the first election they faced.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Still, it was startlingly great in my view. Wish George would come back. I’m sure he could work something visually with it.
Except for the problem of gender, I’m warming to the prospect of Julia as Odysseus. Very wiley and keeps getting out of tight spots and performing marvellous tasks.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:03 pm
OC
I beg to differ and I rely on the Parliamentary Education Office for backup. They say -
http://www.peo.gov.au/students/fss/fss57.html
In a normal majority government it’s easy enough to maintain the confidence of the House, you have the numbers to do that. I know Windsor and Oakeshott grasp the importance of their support, but you miss my point. Despite what the msm tell us Australians do not elect prime ministers, that is the job of whatever party/group is in power. I’m getting very tired of the insistence that we should all rush to the polls every time a PM has a drop in their polling or whenever a new leader is chosen. Windsor seems to have forgotten that a change of leadership does not require a snap poll.
by leone on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:03 pm
how many abusive emails did you receive Joe
by jeffemu on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:03 pm
victoria – I have no idea. I know what I want but will I get it? I’m finding it hard to understand that some think it has been OK to undermine the leader since she first took over. I cannot believe that KR could not have put a stop to that. Even tho I was becoming unhappy with the way Kev was handling things in 2009-10 I wasn’t happy at the deposing but once it was done they just had to get on with putting the Party first. His behaviour since helped me lose all respect for him.
I agree with Gerry Hand – wtte ‘get over it Princess. You’re having the biggest dummy spit in history and ruining the Party’.
Just imagine if he had decided to be a man and work co-operatively to show how good he can be.
To those who say it the NBN was Kev’s idea – it wasn’t. It was Conroys.
I wonder what the reaction has been at the finance ministers meeting or whether they are unaware of what is going on here.
by BH on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Channel 7′s just-finished report is very much saying Rudd doesn’t have the numbers, he may still challenge in future but he isn’t going to soon.
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:05 pm
jeffemu
Or. PVO
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:05 pm
BH
I recall that Conroy had to get on a plane to try and speak to Rudd because he had not dealt with issues relating to the NBN, and Rudd decided to abuse the crap out of Conroy. Is that the story you are referring to?
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:07 pm
victoria – yes. Not much respect shown to his Ministers back then.
by BH on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:10 pm
BH
We know why Rudd was dumped. Has he developed amnesia since then?
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:11 pm
I didn’t hear it, but apparently he also doubts there’ll be a challenge this year.
by rishane on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:12 pm
BH
Btw what do you want to happen?
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:12 pm
BH
Funny isn’t it? I am so glad those days are over.
Don’t get me wrong: I loved baking for the kids; I loved them demolishing it within three seconds of getting in the door.
I’m just so glad I don’t have to do it any longer.
Don’t miss it all all.
I hate cooking. I hate thinking about meals. I hate having to make a shopping list; I hate shopping; I hate loading the shopping into the car; I hate unloading the shopping home; I hate bringing it inside and storing it; I hate preparing the meal; I hate cooking it; I hate clearing up afterwards; I hate doing the dishes.
I HATE IT ALL.
I’d prefer a salad.
by kezza2 on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:13 pm
kezza2
My cooking days are not over, but I know what you mean!!!!
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:14 pm
Some, maybe. But not me. Not on your life.
There’s a differencve between having a robust debate on who should lead the Party and deserting it altogether. Maybe that’s something the Tories can’t get their heads around. If you support Labor policies, you support Labor. Maybe Tories jump ship, but most Labor people don’t.
As for:
What, and you’re the Oracle of Delphi on this?
Most Tories of my acquaintance never started listening to her in the first place and the general public don’t listen to much on the political front at all until Election time.
Surely the policy-specific Essential polling tells us somehting about what people want.
So what do you reckon they’re gonna do when it comes time to fill-in the little boxes? Give the tick to the guy who has promised to do-away with those policies and outcomes they desire and support (especially the NBN and the MRRT and associated tax cuts)?
Or is it just possible they will vote for the Party that will deliver what they so clearly want, including the tax cuts? Or will they go for the guy who will abolish them?
Your call.
by smithe on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:14 pm
Not having a challenge is what I have thought all along and if that is in fact the current situation then …
What has the past few days been all about?
by DavidWH on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:16 pm
smithe
agreed
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:16 pm
So this whole frenetic affair has been nothing more than a beat-up?
by smithe on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:16 pm
May be buti woud begrudge rudd any thing so green
by my say on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm
kezza, BH,
When OH asked me to marry him I made a point of having a discussion about domestic duties. I told him it wasn’t my aspiration to be a domestic goddess so if he thought that’s what I should be he should go find someone else.
The good news is he is an ex-boarding school boy so he has been trained to look after himself!
He cooks, cleans, washes and the added bonus is I don’t have to ask!
by Space Kidette on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm
DavidWH
The last few days was about putting it all out there, and proving that the msm are blood thirsty
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Yes Leone and it is possible for members to withdraw their support for a government in which case there is a baton change or new election. Windsor appears to be threatening this if Rudd is restored. The implication is that a Rudd government would be very short lived indeed. This isn’t rocket surgery.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Oh Duh. But they held the balance of power in the Senate.
You don’t think this gave them just a teesny-weensy bit of power?
by smithe on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:19 pm
OC
Precisely why it will not happen.
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:19 pm
296 TP
Pretty rare for me to agree with you TP, but right on with that one.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Laurie Oakes on Nine news showed this clip from Naked Gun to describe Gillard’s press conference today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NNOrp_83RU
Must watch that film again one of these days
by madcyril on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Plus, for good measure, they always preferenced the Coalition. God only knows how many Coalition MHRs held their seats on DLP preferences iin the 50′s and 60′s.
Let’s face it, comrade. But for the DLP Labor would have been in Government for most of that time.
by smithe on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:22 pm
victoria we needed Labor to pretend to be self-destructing to tell us what we already knew?
by DavidWH on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:22 pm
everyone… i wonder what pjk thinks of all this?
by Lyne Lady on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Except Windsor said ONLY Gillard has the wherewithal to negotiate this hung parlt.
by jenauthor on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:23 pm
DavidWH
Dont worry they will not self destruct. Too many self interested people in the party for that to occur
by victoria on Feb 20, 2012 at 6:24 pm