Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition
Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Tom the problem is Rudd’s own team members are already trashing Rudd’s place in history and given his extraordinary actions today I wouldn’t confidently predict what he is likely to do once he realises his party has abandoned him. I think the ministers are taking a big risk using the type of language I have heard tonight. If they have the numbers in the bag then they would be wise to temper the language.
by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:22 am
Excuse me? Who have I said was mentally deranged?
by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:22 am
Its not the polls that matter, Bluegreen. Its the sooks on the front bench, and due respect for factional order.
This is how Rome fell.
by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:23 am
Not sure if you saw it earlier, but on the Australian website, they had a cartoon of some people at Rudd camp and they can’t even put the tents up. They said, “come back later, we haven’t set up the tents yet.”
by Apple Blossom on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:23 am
No contest. He always regarded Rudd as a media obsessive and show pony. Gillard is remembered very favourably in the Diaries, albeit plotted against and stabbed by her own factional colleagues, including Tanner, Carr, Macklin, even Albo. I have not seen mention of an actual falling out – maybe he was a little jealous of her subsequent rise.
IOf he does an AFR or Crikey piece on this, watch out for a big axe into Rudd.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:23 am
I think a more accurate version would mention that the ‘knifing’ is really more of a stabbed in the back myth. Yes its something that’s got out among the public, but its a distortion.
by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:23 am
Centaur
I would like to put in a good word for Wong, Combet and Tanya P.
by daretotread on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:24 am
You all have short memories about the 2007 election – obviously you think that Gillard would have beaten Howard?
Kevin Rudd isn’t going to vanish into obscurity, as most of you all wish. Even if he resigned from parliament tomorrow, he’d be as active and high profile as Hawke or Keating or Howard.
And if the polls for Julia are still dire in 6 months time, who then is she going to be blaming?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:24 am
Indeed they would. Why arent thet? Been under a lot of pwessure have we? Awww.
Sooks. Tantrum throwers.
by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:24 am
You’re not alone in that thinking GG. Life must have been really tough with the normal issues that Labor PMs have to endure but with Rudd stinking up the place every time Labor looked like getting some clean air things must have seemed impossibly difficult for her. Now she can be less cautious and start to rely more on her instincts. This week should be the absolute low point.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:24 am
GG
When was the last time a leadership crisis actually improved led to an improvement in a leaders political fortunes? Compare that number with how many times it has deteriorated the fortunes of the leader.
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:24 am
Well, he may decide that it is better to be the tent than outside looking in…..and it may be that a part of him just wants revenge: just wants to have Gillard thrown out. He may be able to accept this as something of a consolation prize.
He also has an eye on his “place in history”. He will not want to go down as a wrecker, but as a builder. So he may be able to temper his quest for power with his desire for redemption…who knows….though I suspect this is all wishful thinking on my part too
by briefly on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:25 am
I am going to want to see a bit of evidence of who said what to whom before I start tar and feathering anyone (except abbott, I would t&f him for the fun of it) so is there any evidence Rudd was going to throw the pokies legislation under the bus?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:25 am
rishane
How is it a distortion.
I would have much more respect for the posters here if they were at least honest
by daretotread on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:25 am
I don’t know what you’re referring to, Evan. And don’t accuse people of taking bribes.
by William Bowe on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:25 am
GG
I believe that Mr Rudd lost control of the timing elements of his destabilisation strategy when Mr Wilkie was reported to have been approached in the context of seeking leadership support. Mr Rudd and his spear carriers have done an excellent line in plausible deniability for 18 months. Simultaneously, journalists who had been approached by Mr Rudd or his spear carriers also made it known that this had occurred.The Wilkie story, true or not, enable Ms Gillard’s supporters to go public in counter-attack. The nature of these attacks, and the fact that Ms Gillard made no move to hose the attacks down, virtually made it impossible for Mr Rudd to stay in Cabinet. He was spooked into resigning in Washington. How Mr Bolt and others can interpret this move by Mr Rudd as political genius is beyond me.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:26 am
No DTT, I repeat you are being hyper bowlic. Just nonsense.
Much similar was said after Rudd won in 2007 and we saw how he screwed that up.
He will be lucky to get 15 votes, his challenge is over and the Rudd era will soon be over.
How did he blow it all so fast? One for the historians perhaps.
by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:27 am
So…who will win the ballot.
by morgieb on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:28 am
Who’d have guessed it, Hartcher’s backing Rudd all the way on this?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/an-ash-wednesday-appeal-to-the-true-believers-20120222-1toaz.html
by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:28 am
GG,
My take is that our PM is a cargo ship coming up from the Black Sea on the Danube. There are many locks but, eventually, she will get to the Black Forest and deliver the goods.
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:28 am
Well given Latham’s rehabilitation on this blog he should be thanking Rudd
by hairy nose on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:29 am
The difference is that all of them are revered by their own party. Rudd will be an outcast. About as active and high profile as Latham I’d reckon and respected even less.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:30 am
Gillard is finished.
Has to be.
Her credibility would have taken a massive beating on Rudd’s resignation, they way he put the cause to her. And I guess in a way he was right. No way should she have let Crean do what he did, or at least not address what he said in relation to the Minister for FA.
I can only think that at that time they knew Rudd was getting numbers, otherwise there would be no point and it would just been a foot shooting exercise.
Rudd’s resignation was genius. Scripted perfectly to make him look the victim yet again, and Gillard culpable once more. And total surprise putting Gillard’s team totally on the back foot and having to react without enough thought and consultation. In other words right out of the book Art of War.
This has been tactical brilliance from Rudd, taking a very difficult situation for himself and turning it into a devastating attack for Gillard.
The things caucus will know when they vote that:
1. Gillard history. How could she not be now.
2. A seat warming candidate this far out will probably lead them to the same situation again.
3. Rudd is highly popular and the most electable leader among them, by a mile. A great campaigner to boot.
4. Gillard retaining power may cause Labor’s primary to tank because Rudd would be the ‘loser’
5. That if Rudd loses he will still be there and the situation will arise again because they know Gillard is on the nose.
They wont know if he high popularity will translate fully to a victory. But of all the candidates he would easily save the most furniture.
So does the right wing power brokers again prefer a decade of opposition so long as their power is retained. Maybe. If you think there is a group that doesn’t care about the fortunes of the party, look at the people who knifed Rudd. Thats the real enemy.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:30 am
Rudd does not have to win 10 or 20 or 30, he needs to win 2 or 3 and that will bring the 10 or 20 or 30.
by murgatroyd on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:30 am
4369 duck
I think the Italian cruise ship is a more appropriate metaphor for her unfolding (mis)fortunes, even though she’ll win Monday’s battle.
by Mick77 on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:31 am
Its a distortion because the popular story is:
1. Rudd was awesome, everyone loved him.
2. His polls went down a little.
3. That evil Julia Gillard KNIFED him!
When from what we know, it sounds more like:
1. Rudd’s polls were high, but he pissed off a lot of people in the party and not much was getting done.
2. Some in the party didn’t want to serve under him for the above reasons.
3. The plotters got Gillard to eventually agree, but if she hadn’t would have got someone else instead, they wanted Rudd out that badly.
by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:31 am
It will be interesting to see whether the Labor Party will let a million twitter followers and facebook friends bloom.
Or whether it sticks to someone who is flawed but actually quite sane.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:31 am
OC @ 4336
A motion carried in a formal Cabinet meeting would settle any such issue. A Prime Minister is not a dictator or even a President.
The notion that a PM can unilaterally decide things in a Westminster Parliamentary system is just sheer nonsense. Cabinet decides but even that could be overturned by Caucus in extreme circumstances.
by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:31 am
I think Vex suggested he was suffering relevance deprivation since Gillard squeezed him out of the PM’s inner advisory group.
It seems to have been a prudent move, as you imply.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:31 am
Morleb at this stage you would have to say Tony Abbott.
by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:32 am
BW
Several factors support the idea that Rudd has one the tactics today
1. the delay Gillard had had in a presser
2. the rants from Swan and Burke – Very career limiting – not necessarily from rudd but no one else will trust them again
3. Gillards face in the car
However once tactical victory does not a war win so it may mean little
by daretotread on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:32 am
BW:
Yeah, it’s a funny thing – I bow down to you by the way, BW, you’ve been largely vindicated on this – that Abbott immediately appears marginalised by this issue. It forces you to really imagine what he’d be like as PM, because it makes the notion of it more real. It really lessens him.
What I mean by that is, with the ALP in disarray (as it is), it’s a good time for the Coalition to step up and make their case for election; the public would be ready to take them seriously right now. But they’ve stripped themselves so thoroughly of serious policy work that it’s virtually impossible to take them seriously.
What are they going to do? Get out there and say “I told you so?” They’ve been doing that for so long it’s lost its power. I mentioned last week that they’ve reduced themselves to commentators rather than players, and in a situation as overpowering and visceral as we have now, they’re going to look like lightweights.
Anything Abbott might add to the discussion is going to be redundant. He’s used up his fire-and-brimstone language trying to create this situation. I can’t think of a single opposition front-bencher who could even go big-picture right now.
All the focus is on the ALP at this moment. But gaze over the benches and all you’ll see is a mirage. That’s why I’m not sure how this is going to play out politically.
by Aguirre on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:32 am
Puff,
I am willing to make a few feathers available.
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:32 am
Henry @ 4341
Clearly you are one of those without a brain if you believe that.
by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:33 am
TLBD
I assume that those countries which had stopped traffic on the Danube because of ice hazards because of the intense cold will now allow traffic to flow pending the resolution of the leadership crisis.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:33 am
That’s gold.
Latham on Sky predicted that “hartcher tomorrow will rave about how statesmanlike Rudd’s presser would be…” etc etc.
You know the press gallery is pushing the boundaries of predictable (in a bad way) when Mark Latahm can parody you on national TV.
by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:34 am
Well you see he didn’t screw up at all. Only a fool believes that. He was knifed because the factions wanted their power fully restored, and set about a 12 month white anting campaign.. But understand the hatred toward Rudd is really to do with the relative position of Gillard.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:35 am
I have no way to convert that into a language I understand and I understand quite a few.
Is it Volapük?
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:35 am
BH
Sorry for the delay.
Trying to catch up & the computer is going very slow.
Yep!
Mind you Rudd threatened legal action but channel 7 were confident enough to run with it.
Leroy
I don’t want a return to Rudd. However Rudd’s rehearsed ‘oh poor me’ play the victim performance will have impact.
Noted on twitter that some who were pro-Gillard turned on Rudd’s resignation.
Anyways I’m offfff……..
by Dee on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:36 am
Or the public. They can always show their displeasure in 2013.
It must be terribly inconvenient for the Gillard camp that outside their circle jerk, the evil Rudd tyrant and cwuel bully!…. is in fact highly popular, and in their weakest states.
I wonder how many backbenchers will think that over this weekend? I must admit, Its a tough one: voting Gillard makes this term safer, voting Rudd means the next term an actual prospect.
The answer, of course, is what is likely to happen: two ballots, one now, once in early 2013. Gilard wins first, loses second.
sadly, the same idiots who will switch ther votes then are those who’ve just given Abbott days of video quotes against the best prospect.
And so, we come full circle to…. Shorto. A reasonable man, with good prospects, who steps fwd – reluctantly – for the good of the party. Who sadly watched two leaders destroy each other, powerless to stop them!
Lefty E out
by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:36 am
There are three reasons floating around for why Rudd pulled the pin tonight.
1. He is a political genius and caught his opponents off guard. The fact that he loses two to three days of campaigning time is irrelevant!
2. Channel 7 approached him for comment about the Pokies story they are running tomorrow. He denied the story, threatened to sue and then called his press conference.
3. The Shanahan story from earlier in the day that Gillard would sack him on Sunday on his return (although later denied by the Gillard office) spooked him in to getting his revenge in first.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:36 am
News Ltd papers saying that KRudd has 39 votes “locked in”
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:36 am
Stupidity at its most extreme, even among the Gillard extremists.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:36 am
Wong Combet and Tanya p are all left
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:37 am
Julia will probably rehire Karl Bitar from Crown Casino – after all, he did such a stellar job in the 2010 election campaign.
Thomas Paine: My reading of it is that whatever option Rudd decides upon, it’s a nightmare scenario for Gillard. He either wins the ballot, or he goes to the backbench & does a Keating to her over 6 months or so, or he resigns from parliament completely, or he becomes an independent MP.
We know why Swan and Burke and others from that camp are seriously trying to trash Rudd’s reputation – because he has spectacularly wrongfooted them.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:39 am
TP
Confessions here on PB speaking pretty much according to script basically admitted that they would prefer defeat in 2013 that victory under Rudd.
by daretotread on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:40 am
Swan exposed himself tonight; his dummy spit was a last toss of the dice affair. The intention was to undermine Rudd and increase Julia’s chances. If his over the top rhetoric has the opposite effect he is finished; and he knows it.
by hairy nose on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:41 am
Mythical beat,
There are, reportedly, 11 dimensions. Which ones are you in?
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:41 am
Could Labor offer the leadership to Rob Oakeshott? And then tell him they will give him a safe NSW seat at the next election (there\’s quite a few safe seat NSW Labor MPs retiring).
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:42 am
Centaur
I know.
Actually I would also add it Kim Carr. Emerson was cautious and I would keep him on. He has brains.
by daretotread on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:42 am