Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
I do not see why Rudd even wants the job of PM. I always assumed he had the perfect job for him.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:30 am
Up late Puffy?
by smithe on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:35 am
I thought it was the perfect job for him too (all care and no responsibility, plus you get to go to Washington and chin-wag with the Beezer) but it seems he wants the Big Seat again.
In the unlikley event that he gets it, I sure hope he’s up to the job this time around. Ministers, members of caucus and Public Service Mandarins had better lay-in a decent stock of anxiolytics and anti-depressants, too.
by smithe on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:39 am
smythe,
Yes. I get to thinking (and crying) about my missing dogs. I trawl the lost dogs sites, etc and I update their facebook page.
Must get some sleep though.
‘Nite.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 5:08 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Kevin Rudd has called all the #MSMhack LIARS because he said he has never engaged in any stealth whiteanting of PM Gillard #respill
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:20 am
i thought our Poss was a little bit rich in saying that:
Yet he was loudly predicitng that PM Gillard is unelectable in 2013, hence my response:
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:24 am
From the previous thread:
Exactly. On the contrary, they cannot the forest from the trees that they have been counting.
That also applies to all of the #MSMhacks, their skills of insightful political analysis & commentary are no better than yours and mine.
See #6 above, where Poss was having a go at people who make prediction in the next 4 days, yet he boldly made a prediction of something in the next 546 days.
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:29 am
Morning bludgers
Gary Gray on 6pr
http://www.6pr.com.au/blogs/6pr-perth-blog/rudd-should-go-away/20120222-1tocb.html
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:30 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
This is a little bit rich. #MSMhacks complained that Ministers never explained why they dumped Rudd. Now they do, hacks still complain why?
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:38 am
Kelvin Thompson is passionate about the hazards of population boosting so I doubt he would support the return of “I like a big Australia” Rudd. Under JG’s watch the migration numbers came down to about 200,000 from Rudd’s 300,000.
Rudd and his wife’s interests favour large “skilled” migrant numbers where there is a lot of money to be made importing skilled labour. On Rudd’s watch there was watering down of the rules for eligibility for 457 visas. Regional employers at one stage were relieved of the responsibility to prove they could not find suitable local skilled workers to justify their 457 requests.
I always had the impression that “big Australia” was the real reason Kevin was in effect removed.
by dany le roux on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:40 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Any employee who abandon his/her job half way should get the sack #respill
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:41 am
How sickening the whole thing is. The only winners, other than Abbott and co, will be the Rupert Murdochs and Gina Riheharts of the world.
by Toorak Toff on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:42 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
@WilkieMP Mr. Wilkie, how do you feel this morning about the report that Kevin Rudd intention of dumping the #PokiesReform if he’s a leader.
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:47 am
Don’t believe those who say Nick Champion and Amanda Rishworth are anything other than Gillard supporters. Both are members of the Don Farrell faction.
by Toorak Toff on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:48 am
“Rineharts”
by Toorak Toff on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:48 am
TT
I am dubious too re some of the supporters for Rudd
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:50 am
The Finnigans
Me thinks Wilkie has been reconsidering his support for Ms Gillard. It must of dawned on him earlier in the week that he was dudded by Rudd.
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:52 am
Morning All
HUGE day yesterday and a some big ones coming up. While most would understand Kevin being upset by being sacked by his own party as PM, who wouldn’t be, I am surprised how far it seems he has gone to hurt them as a result.
Arranging an approach to Clubs Australia in the heat of the battle over pokies and promising to dismantle party policy is an absolute disgrace. Leaking, constantly undermining – not happy Kevin (insert angry face)
Does anyone think the 4 journalists he has been briefing will be named publicly???
Looking forward to Julia taking control today – her speech should be devastating, well it better be. They now have proof he has been actively campaigning against the government – that goes close to making him a Labor rat, a Labor mouse maybe
Expect to see more fly the other way over the next few days as well, the media will go hard against Julia – one of the first things to come out will be the text messages sent by her office on Australia Day imo
Finally, how good was it to see Mark Latham back on the side of good ripping into Chris Kenny last night, super stuff – shame it probably won’t last
by womble on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:55 am
womble
Rudd knows why he was sacked by his own party. They spared his feelings by not telling the rest of Oz. This is how he rewards them. Leaking confidental cabinet discussions during an election. And He has been leaking ever since.
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:59 am
One thing Labor has never tolerated is a rat. You rat-out the Party and your career is frogmarched-out and put up against the nearest pock-marked wall.
If Rudd knows his Labor history he must at least know this, so he’d better hope the Clubs Australia story is baseless.
by smithe on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:07 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
My heart bleeds!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/big-three-investors-lose-millions-as-tens-profits-plunge-20120222-1to66.html
Andrew Dyson on the spill.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/02/22/3062089/1_Dysonwed-620×0.jpg
And Alan Moir rolls Popeye out for a run on the subject.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Ron Tandberg has a crack at it too.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe’s imagery is always worth looking at.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:08 am
Wouldn’t it be nice if they all just had a cold shower before a Bex and a good lie down?
by Toorak Toff on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:10 am
Nicola Roxon unloading on the style of Rudd on ABC24.
by BK on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:10 am
true Victoria – i think it hurt Julia that she wouldn’t reveal the reasons for taking his job out of loyalty, maybe now is the time for it to all come out
Smithe – spot on, if there is proof re the Clubs Australia story he is GONE
by womble on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:12 am
During 2007 Rudd said he was going to play with Howards mind. it now appears that he has being doing the same to Gillard since 2010 with promises made to overturn government policies and strategic leaks to the press.
His resignation speech as FM was more self serving mind games to paint himself as a pure innocent party bullied by faceless men.
by castle on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:15 am
Shorten has to persuade gillard and rudd to withdraw and select a compromise candidate
by wal kolla on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:18 am
After a night of cogitation:
It would appear that Rudd has been the problem all along. Labor is now dealing with that problem. It’s messy, but in the long term necessary.
At last people – including myself! – can see why Rudd was so hated in the party (the depth of the hatred and distrust always puzzled me).
Far from showing that Labor is divided (there’s always contenders for leadership, and those that support them, a different matter altogether) it shows that the majority of the party are united in their determination to confront this issue and get on with government.
It seems this was inevitable from the start.
In which case, it’s not a matter for wringing hands and sobbing ‘Why now?” It’s a time for steely jawed determination, for lancing the boil, getting rid of the poison and moving on.
Of course it might still kill the government – this is a risky business. But it could also mean getting rid of the last real imipediment to gettng on with the job.
The point is, it was always going to happen. And it says nothing about the party as a whole, its fitness to govern, or about Gillard’s leadership.
It is all about one man, and has been for a very long time.
by zoomster on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:20 am
His speech was full of the *Perpendicular Pronoun* – I, I, I.
Said it all really.
Rudd will now be remembered as a Rat, but he did slay a lying rodent.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:25 am
True, he got rid of Howie, but he is prepared to destroy the government agenda, legislation and policies for his own interests.
by castle on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:32 am
zoomster
Well said
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:37 am
Thats exactly what he is doing.
He is putting himself above and before the interests of every other person in the nation.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:37 am
I am beginning to see the real Rudd.
by Muskiemp on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:38 am
Some one was spiking the cool aid last night- Dumbby a minister? Thompson x2 still in pairlament? Oh please. And the numbers are around 43 Rudd. As I said half of NSW most of Left, x2 Vic, x4 queensland, x3 Sa, and about x5 WA and Tas
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:39 am
Muskiemp
It has taken me too long to come to the same conclusion as you.
I think Rudd has now given the party the opportunity to get the facts on to the table and undergo the necessary catharsis to clear the air leading up to the next election.
by BK on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:41 am
It also appears that ‘daretotread’ is on the side of those undermining this Government. It could almost be called treachery.
by Muskiemp on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:41 am
centaur
your figures are dubious, to say the least. Even a number of those on the SMH list as firm Rudd supporters have declared their hand for Gillard.
The numbers are less than Rudd thinks they are. He is the supreme egotist; he would be interpretting polite dissimulation as earnest support, and seeing twinkles in the eyes of those telling him outright they don’t support him.
by zoomster on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:44 am
Muskiemp
There are many who either think Rudd is the ants pants or concern trolls
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:44 am
BK
You probably gave him the benefit of the doubt. I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but knew early on he was bad news, and that he was the source of the leaks during the election campaign.
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:48 am
Like this from a person who claimed *to support the party leader*
If Rudd doesn’t stand he is gutless.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:50 am
Seeing covers-off Kev-07. Not much policy that he wouldn’t compromise.
I think the Mark Reilly story may have forced his resignation. More to come on that I’d say.
by CTar1 on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:50 am
For the life of me I will never understand how Rudd manages to have people go so bonkers in support of him.
by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:52 am
Centaur: You’re dreaming on those numbers, buddy.
There is no way Rudd has 3 in SA. No way. As I’ve said before, Farrell controls the numbers and he is with Gillard. Cross Rishworth and Champion off your list.
And Zappia may be a Rudd supporter (not exclusively, though; he also supports the PM) but in any spill he is actually more likely to support the incumbent. His seat is also very safe now (thanks to his hard work), so he has nothing to fear from a swing against Labor (unless it is monstrous, which it is more likely to be if they change leaders again).
In short, if a small state like SA could be so wrong, imagine the mistakes in the larger states.
Also, to how many people in the Caucus do you think yesterday’s antics appealed? I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see his numbers have plummeted off the back of that effort. It was the ultimate act of self-interested dummy-spitting.
Moreover, some backbenchers who weren’t there in 2007-2010 who might have been giving him the benefit of the doubt up until now just got a taste of what everyone has been talking about. Added to that the revelations that he has been promising to water down or change some of the reforms that Labor has introduced behind the backs of his Cabinet and Caucus colleagues.
No, Ruddster is gone after yesterday. You can’t dump a steaming pile on your party for 18 months and expect them to get out a spoon and tuck in.
by Danny Lewis on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:53 am
I actually haven’t got any issue with Rudd destabilising Gillard – after all, isn’t that what she and her supporters did to him almost 2 years ago?
Grow up, people, politics isn’t a game for shrinking violets.
The woman won the top job through rank deceit, and she arguably really didn’t win the last election, so all claims of her legitimacy are very dubious.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:54 am
Hi William
You have Melham in two columns.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:55 am
I also don’t know why Gillard would even consider for a second delaying a leadership ballot until Friday next week. What worth can come out of that other than continued public brawling within the party?
by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:55 am
It’s the cult of personality. It’s all rather disturbing.
by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:57 am
The irony of it is the likes of Piers Ackerman was telling anyone who would listen years ago what Rudd was really like.
Now *that* hurts.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:57 am
dave@39
It is amazing how they eventually are laid bare
by victoria on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:58 am
womble
One of Julia’s “staff” has probably been writing her victory speech for month now, of course, without her official knowledge. So after she has reviewed it 5 times (all happened today) Julia’s “last minute” speech is going to be great
by dovif on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:58 am
TLM
Nor is it a game where a ‘player’ with a total lack of policy conviction will last.
by CTar1 on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:59 am