Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
Which is precisely what will happen Gary
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Where is everyone?
At one time this place would have been full with an issue like this? Where is finny, george, mari, my say, victoria, rua, pegasus, and I think there are others missing? (frank got himself banned again but no-one else is on holiday with bilbo.) All at work?
Where are yoooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Leroy 994 and The Finnigans 1001: Amanda Rishworth has come out for Gillard and Darren Cheeseman for Rudd. Nick Champion is from the SDA camp and would certainly be for Gillard.
by Toorak Toff on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Gary,
At the rate that thr character assassinations are coming out the past two days, it should easily be shot by Monday morning!
by scorpio on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
I have thought of a genuine Rudd/Gillard policy difference.
A Big Australia versus dog-whistling about high immigration rates.
I encourage everyone to read Tony Burkes Sustainable Population Policy.
by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
gary
nail meet head
rudd has shot his bolt (pun intended) way too early
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Mick C – no, the ALP caved to the miners, not Rudd. The MSM aren’t a vested interest group. As for Clubs Australia, this sounds more like dirt – Wilkie would not openly support Rudd if this were true.
And whose fault is that My say?
by Radguy on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
What will happen?
by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Rudd had a chance to consolidate his authority by calling a DD, he squibbed it.
You cant argue that all the Labor initiatives were Rudds, yet in the next breath blame others for their demise.
The Prime Minister didn’t “knife” Rudd.
There wasn’t even a spill, he QUIT so lets all stop that nonesense.
Rudd’s a great campaigner, but unfortunately he is all style and no substance, and thats the exact reason he is not PM any more, nor will he be again, he should now show good grace, call off this nonesense, move quietly to the back-bench, and do his job and work with the Government to promote its policies and to help work to defeat the Oppostion at the election.
Instead of doing his best to hasten PM RAbbott in a fit of bitter vengence
by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
It’s a two punch combo you are witnessing!
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Centaur you can’t have a Rudd corner without Bemused. You list is flawed
by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:33 pm
I’m guessing Rudd’s.
by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Agreed.
by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Foro, you must be new here. Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc does everything
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:34 pm
I have my doubts that either Rudd or Gillard can lead a united team now let alone win an election.
by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:35 pm
And for those who think only Gillard makes mistakes, think back to this one by Rudd.
by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Yes David, sorry our movement grows- just like in the caucus. Scorpio- you with us?
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm
18 months out from an election? Look at the polling in this week’s Essential on the PHI, NBN, and MRRT. Support is up on all three and positive. It says that Labor is winning the policy argument. This are the pieces that need to be place before the politics start. The politics are important when one is close to an election which is (not yet) the case. 18 months is a lifetime.
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm
puff – i’m here not that i’m much use – mari is busy twittering – who is bluegreen ? where has he come from? just watched jg’s presser – she was fantastic!
by Lyne Lady on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm
If Rudd somehow wins there will be a media feasting frenzy the like of which we’ve never seen. The ‘poor ex-PM wronged’ schtick will immediately become a thing of the past as they ridicule the party for going back to the guy they dumped and all of his dirty laundry (that has recently been hidden for reasons of convenience) will be on show. I really don’t see how the Rudd supporters can ignore this but it seems revisionism doesn’t just exist in the media.
Let’s not forget Gillard was popular before she replaced Rudd and how they immediately turned on her.
by Think Big on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:37 pm
That really is in the hands of the caucus after Monday. They either unite or perish in 2013.
by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:37 pm
SDA- Nick Champion hmm Byrne and Burke in vic are team rudd
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm
WILLIAM – The standard for a court of law is balance of probabilities. I’m happy with that. Further, the more serious the allegation (such as treachery, etc etc), particularly in a fervid atmosphere like the present, the more cogent the evidence must be. Why should I accept “gossip” I haven’t been able to verify myself?
When people use comments like “it is perfectly obvious that he is telling the truth” all they are really doing is saying “his statement confirms my beliefs”
Here’s another Cassidy story. It’s a beaut.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-23/cassidy-rudd-gillard-leadership-battle/3847996
by rosa on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm
He was the leader, its either his policies, or the ALP‘s
Which is it ?
by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm
daretotread,
Blimey, I didn’t know they had.
I’d better check then!
by scorpio on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Never fear Puffy have just arrived back and busy counting Finns list
by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:39 pm
So where is Albanese?
by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:39 pm
puff
settle down
its the invasion of the body snatchers
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Does that apply to “It’s a beaut” as well?
by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Finns
McClelland has tweeted for Rudd.
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm
bg
u stalkin again?
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:41 pm
And Mark Arbib says Gillard should be given a fair go to deliver her policies.
The jokes just write themselves…
by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Back here now yes JG was great the rude journalist has apologised not really sure if he meant it or not
by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Mick Collins @ 1037
You are very loose with the truth. I have not heard or read any statement that indicates the Independents would ‘walk’ if Rudd returns.
They have indicated they ‘may’ reconsider their position. Big difference.
by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:43 pm
How many votes can Albo swing?
What union is he associated with?
by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Both the Straits Times and the Herald Tribune have articles on the resignation of Mr Rudd today. Reporting is fairly well straight down the line.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm
centaur009,
Sorry! I was sitting on the fence watching the action and when I went to get down, found my pants caught up on a whopping great nail.
I could be here for some time!
by scorpio on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm
]Think Big
Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink
If Rudd somehow wins there will be a media feasting frenzy the like of which we’ve never seen. The ‘poor ex-PM wronged’ schtick will immediately become a thing of the past as they ridicule the party for going back to the guy they dumped and all of his dirty laundry (that has recently been hidden for reasons of convenience) will be on show. I really don’t see how the Rudd supporters can ignore this but it seems revisionism doesn’t just exist in the media.
Let’s not forget Gillard was popular before she replaced Rudd and how they immediately turned on her.]
Yes so right I am told Alan Jones even liked her in those heady day, now I guess he likes Kevin Rudd
by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm
No, the super profits tax was axed after the changeover, replaced with a policy far more beneficial to the big miners and the unions that they work with.
The MSM is a broad church. Most are influenced by vested interests, but they are not vested interests as a whole.
by Radguy on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:45 pm
mari,
He must mean it. After all, his boss, Chris Mitchell says he does…
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:45 pm
bg
U are stallkin again!!
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:45 pm
[Both the Straits Times and the Herald Tribune have articles on the resignation of Mr Rudd today. Reporting is fairly well straight down the line.
So unprofessional. They would never get job in the Australian media.
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Gary 1070 I genuinely do hope that for the sake of good government and opposition Labor do unite behind whoever wins on Monday.
by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Albo is on Left bluegreen- he is already with us
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm
well pony up, bet your house that they wont
by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm
CPSU is it for ALBO?
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Finns
Ursula Stephens, Anthony Byrne and Griffiths are for Rudd.
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:48 pm
DavidWH @ 1060
Comrade, thank you for that recognition.
by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Albo 1 week ago:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/albanese-insists-party-leadership-settled/story-e6frf7jx-1226271650345
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Flipper Boy
Stephens, Byrne and Griffith have announced for Rudd.
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:50 pm