Crikey



Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”

• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.

• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.

• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.

• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013, New Zealand politics

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  1. Which is precisely what will happen Gary

    by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:31 pm

  2. Where is everyone?

    At one time this place would have been full with an issue like this? Where is finny, george, mari, my say, victoria, rua, pegasus, and I think there are others missing? (frank got himself banned again but no-one else is on holiday with bilbo.) All at work?

    Where are yoooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  3. Leroy 994 and The Finnigans 1001: Amanda Rishworth has come out for Gillard and Darren Cheeseman for Rudd. Nick Champion is from the SDA camp and would certainly be for Gillard.

    by Toorak Toff on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  4. Gary,

    By the time the next election comes around if he wins his reputation will be thoroughly shot.

    At the rate that thr character assassinations are coming out the past two days, it should easily be shot by Monday morning! ;-)

    by scorpio on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  5. I have thought of a genuine Rudd/Gillard policy difference.

    A Big Australia versus dog-whistling about high immigration rates.

    I encourage everyone to read Tony Burkes Sustainable Population Policy. :)

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  6. gary

    nail meet head

    rudd has shot his bolt (pun intended) way too early

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  7. Mick C – no, the ALP caved to the miners, not Rudd. The MSM aren’t a vested interest group. As for Clubs Australia, this sounds more like dirt – Wilkie would not openly support Rudd if this were true.

    RUDD WOULD NOT WIN AN ELCTION
    THE LIBS NOW HAVE TOO MUCH ON HIM

    And whose fault is that My say?

    by Radguy on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  8. Which is precisely what will happen Gary

    What will happen?

    by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  9. Mick – maybe you’ve forgotten, but one of the reasons rudd got knifed was because he was slow doing a deal with the mining industry. A couple of days after julia took office, the whole thing was stitched up.

    Rudd had a chance to consolidate his authority by calling a DD, he squibbed it.
    You cant argue that all the Labor initiatives were Rudds, yet in the next breath blame others for their demise.
    The Prime Minister didn’t “knife” Rudd.
    There wasn’t even a spill, he QUIT so lets all stop that nonesense.
    Rudd’s a great campaigner, but unfortunately he is all style and no substance, and thats the exact reason he is not PM any more, nor will he be again, he should now show good grace, call off this nonesense, move quietly to the back-bench, and do his job and work with the Government to promote its policies and to help work to defeat the Oppostion at the election.

    Instead of doing his best to hasten PM RAbbott in a fit of bitter vengence

    by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  10. It’s a two punch combo you are witnessing!

    by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  11. Centaur you can’t have a Rudd corner without Bemused. You list is flawed :)

    by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:33 pm

  12. And whose fault is that My say?

    I’m guessing Rudd’s.

    by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:33 pm

  13. gary

    nail meet head

    rudd has shot his bolt (pun intended) way too early

    Agreed.

    by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:34 pm

  14. Finnigans

    Do you do Eurovision as well?

    Foro, you must be new here. Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc does everything

    by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:34 pm

  15. I have my doubts that either Rudd or Gillard can lead a united team now let alone win an election.

    by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:35 pm

  16. A Big Australia versus dog-whistling about high immigration rates.

    And for those who think only Gillard makes mistakes, think back to this one by Rudd.

    by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm

  17. Yes David, sorry our movement grows- just like in the caucus. Scorpio- you with us?

    by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm

  18. I seriously doubt it. I suspect we are witnessing the death throes of a once great party.

    18 months out from an election? Look at the polling in this week’s Essential on the PHI, NBN, and MRRT. Support is up on all three and positive. It says that Labor is winning the policy argument. This are the pieces that need to be place before the politics start. The politics are important when one is close to an election which is (not yet) the case. 18 months is a lifetime.

    by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm

  19. puff – i’m here not that i’m much use – mari is busy twittering – who is bluegreen ? where has he come from? just watched jg’s presser – she was fantastic!

    by Lyne Lady on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm

  20. If Rudd somehow wins there will be a media feasting frenzy the like of which we’ve never seen. The ‘poor ex-PM wronged’ schtick will immediately become a thing of the past as they ridicule the party for going back to the guy they dumped and all of his dirty laundry (that has recently been hidden for reasons of convenience) will be on show. I really don’t see how the Rudd supporters can ignore this but it seems revisionism doesn’t just exist in the media.

    Let’s not forget Gillard was popular before she replaced Rudd and how they immediately turned on her.

    by Think Big on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:37 pm

  21. I have my doubts that either Rudd or Gillard can lead a united team now let alone win an election.

    That really is in the hands of the caucus after Monday. They either unite or perish in 2013.

    by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:37 pm

  22. SDA- Nick Champion hmm Byrne and Burke in vic are team rudd

    by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm

  23. WILLIAM – The standard for a court of law is balance of probabilities. I’m happy with that. Further, the more serious the allegation (such as treachery, etc etc), particularly in a fervid atmosphere like the present, the more cogent the evidence must be. Why should I accept “gossip” I haven’t been able to verify myself?

    When people use comments like “it is perfectly obvious that he is telling the truth” all they are really doing is saying “his statement confirms my beliefs”

    Here’s another Cassidy story. It’s a beaut.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-23/cassidy-rudd-gillard-leadership-battle/3847996

    by rosa on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm

  24. Mick C – no, the ALP caved to the miners, not Rudd.

    He was the leader, its either his policies, or the ALP‘s
    Which is it ?

    The MSM aren’t a vested interest group.}
    Oh no ??? what planet have you been residing on ? So the media inquiry and the NBN really aren’t a threat to Murdoch and Faifax then ?

    As for Clubs Australia, this sounds more like dirt – Wilkie would not openly support Rudd if this were true.

    There is far to much evidence around that he was talking to clubs australia over ditching pokie reform (even CA have admitted it) and we also know now that he keept these talks under his hat when he was trying to negotiate with wilke

    by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm

  25. daretotread,

    Scorpio

    Why have your rellies switched

    Blimey, I didn’t know they had.

    I’d better check then! ;-)

    by scorpio on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:39 pm

  26. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 4:32 pm | Permalink
    Where is everyone?

    At one time this place would have been full with an issue like this? Where is finny, george, mari, my say, victoria, rua, pegasus, and I think there are others missing? (frank got himself banned again but no-one else is on holiday with bilbo.) All at work?

    Where are yoooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu?

    Never fear Puffy have just arrived back and busy counting Finns list

    by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:39 pm

  27. So where is Albanese?

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:39 pm

  28. puff

    settle down

    its the invasion of the body snatchers

    :)

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm

  29. When people use comments like “it is perfectly obvious that he is telling the truth” all they are really doing is saying “his statement confirms my beliefs”

    Here’s another Cassidy story. It’s a beaut.

    Does that apply to “It’s a beaut” as well?

    by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm

  30. Finns

    McClelland has tweeted for Rudd.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm

  31. bg

    u stalkin again?

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:41 pm

  32. And Mark Arbib says Gillard should be given a fair go to deliver her policies.

    The jokes just write themselves…

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:42 pm

  33. Lyne Lady
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Permalink
    puff – i’m here not that i’m much use – mari is busy twittering – who is bluegreen ? where has he come from? just watched jg’s presser – she was fantastic!

    Back here now yes JG was great the rude journalist has apologised not really sure if he meant it or not

    by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:42 pm

  34. Mick Collins @ 1037

    for the millionth time, the indies will walk if rudd returns, that means PM RAbbott.

    How many more times does that inconvient truth need to be pointed out ?

    You are very loose with the truth. I have not heard or read any statement that indicates the Independents would ‘walk’ if Rudd returns.

    They have indicated they ‘may’ reconsider their position. Big difference.

    by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:43 pm

  35. How many votes can Albo swing?

    What union is he associated with?

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm

  36. Both the Straits Times and the Herald Tribune have articles on the resignation of Mr Rudd today. Reporting is fairly well straight down the line.

    by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm

  37. centaur009,

    Yes David, sorry our movement grows- just like in the caucus. Scorpio- you with us?

    Sorry! I was sitting on the fence watching the action and when I went to get down, found my pants caught up on a whopping great nail.

    I could be here for some time! ;-)

    by scorpio on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm

  38. ]Think Big
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink
    If Rudd somehow wins there will be a media feasting frenzy the like of which we’ve never seen. The ‘poor ex-PM wronged’ schtick will immediately become a thing of the past as they ridicule the party for going back to the guy they dumped and all of his dirty laundry (that has recently been hidden for reasons of convenience) will be on show. I really don’t see how the Rudd supporters can ignore this but it seems revisionism doesn’t just exist in the media.

    Let’s not forget Gillard was popular before she replaced Rudd and how they immediately turned on her.]
    Yes so right I am told Alan Jones even liked her in those heady day, now I guess he likes Kevin Rudd

    by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm

  39. He was the leader, its either his policies, or the ALP‘s
    Which is it ?

    No, the super profits tax was axed after the changeover, replaced with a policy far more beneficial to the big miners and the unions that they work with.

    The MSM is a broad church. Most are influenced by vested interests, but they are not vested interests as a whole.

    by Radguy on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:45 pm

  40. Back here now yes JG was great the rude journalist has apologised not really sure if he meant it or not

    mari,

    He must mean it. After all, his boss, Chris Mitchell says he does…

    by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:45 pm

  41. bg

    U are stallkin again!!

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:45 pm

  42. [Both the Straits Times and the Herald Tribune have articles on the resignation of Mr Rudd today. Reporting is fairly well straight down the line.

    So unprofessional. They would never get job in the Australian media.

    by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm

  43. Gary 1070 I genuinely do hope that for the sake of good government and opposition Labor do unite behind whoever wins on Monday.

    by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm

  44. Albo is on Left bluegreen- he is already with us

    by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm

  45. Oh Mick, can’t you recognise empty threats when you see them…. It’s the old I’ll leave the country if blah blah is elected.
    Thomas the internal polling is REAL bad!

    well pony up, bet your house that they wont

    by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm

  46. CPSU is it for ALBO?

    by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:48 pm

  47. Finns

    Ursula Stephens, Anthony Byrne and Griffiths are for Rudd.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:48 pm

  48. DavidWH @ 1060

    Centaur you can’t have a Rudd corner without Bemused. You list is flawed

    Comrade, thank you for that recognition. ;)

    by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:48 pm

  49. Albo 1 week ago:
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/albanese-insists-party-leadership-settled/story-e6frf7jx-1226271650345

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:49 pm

  50. Flipper Boy

    Stephens, Byrne and Griffith have announced for Rudd.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 4:50 pm

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