Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
No nothing will resolved until Gillard is no longer the leader. She either needs to be blasted out, or hopefully she will resign when she realises she will lose an election on a 1996 style landslide.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:30 pm
I like the bit where the Libs elect a new leader
by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:30 pm
I’ve been ticking off people on the SMH list as I’ve seen them publicly declare, some of it from journos twittering off radio or TV reports. Very much along SMH list lines, but it seems more of the Gillard ones are actually confirming, as perhaps you might expect. Roughly 39 Gillard – 9 Rudd so far. Not including a number of foregone conclusions who still haven’t said anything in public. I may hac=vce missed some, will googling news reports etc to check. I’ve seen some listed in local papers for example.
Differences from SMH list, John Murphy to Gillard (not Rudd), and Melissa Parke (down for Rudd) has said she’s undecided.
Late tonight, I will try to put together as comprehensive list as I can.
by Leroy on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:30 pm
greentard,
They get to vote, that is their entitlement, but how I take that line of shyte is my entitlement.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:30 pm
The moniker of *That Rat Rudd* will be very fitting then.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:31 pm
And of course it will be considered that in a number of polls people have preferred Rudd.
He still won’t manage close to a majority because not everything is about polling.
by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:31 pm
Greentart
Because it is coming across as Rudd being desperate & incapable of securing his own support.
by Dee on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Somehow I doubt much thought was given to Rudd’s feelings. Politics is a bruising game. Gillards choice of words would’ve been calculated as the best way to spin the change of leadership.
by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Space
You are on the Gold Coast
No Labor members there. Just approach the senators. I am not sure if there are 4 or 5. But these 4 are the labor people
Moore, Furler, Ludwig, McLucas
by daretotread on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Agreed. Nice bloke, but a bit too much waffle. In fact, thinking of water, I wouldn’t mind Mark Butler getting a shot at the MDB mess. It’s a big one for South Aussies anyway.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Oh it could win, but it won\’t.
Gillard is basically as popular as John Howard, but after Howard had been PM for 11 years. Yet she has got there after just 18 months.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Hogg gets a vote too.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:34 pm
It works even better as -
*But hey – all worth it because Gillard was mean to me and I will dummy spit* over and over and over – then be bitter and twisted for life.
Very Sad indeed.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:36 pm
They are just playing to Rudd\’s strengths, i.e. that he has a better chance of winning the next election.
See, that\’s the main problem with Gillard being leader, the electorate hates her and perceives everything she does with deep skepticism.
But I realise that if winning the next election isn\’t important, then Gillard is probably the better leader.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:36 pm
David
The Libs are just waiting for Labor to decide who their leader is before knocking off the mad monk.
Albo’s “in your guts” quip will destroy him and the libs know it.
by daretotread on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Oh dear
by Think Big on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Why not collaborate with Finns ongoing effort and cross post ?
http://afrankview.net/2012/02/a-quick-dirty-list-of-declared-supporters/
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:38 pm
SK
Nominations close 27 Feb 2012
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/QLD2012/State_Election.html#ElectionTimetable
by MsAdventure on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:38 pm
two reports by insiders that rudd’s votes are on the wrong side of 30
by Lyne Lady on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:39 pm
As if the Liberal Party will be willing to lose the advantage of perceived stability that they hold over Labor right now. You’re dreaming.
by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Of course some of Gillard\’s \’supporters\’ will end up voting for Rudd simply to damage Gillard and make it easier to convince her to resign later in the year.
It is in their interests for Gillard\’s leadership to be weakened further.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:40 pm
SK
Phone ALP Head office (07) 3844 8101 or http://www.qld.alp.org.au/
by MsAdventure on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Tricot,
That is an excellent post and the talking points are interesting. A great effort.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:41 pm
There\’s no need for the Liberals to change leader while Gillard leads Labor. Gillard can\’t win an election against Abbott.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Greentard,
Good, we are making progress, just lie back on the couch and tell me about your favourite bridge.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Wong giving a classy explanation of why she is supporting Gillard on The Project. No bagging party members, just positive reasons.
A few of her colleagues could learn from her.
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Yeah, things in politics will stay exactly the same in 18 months.
People will be delighted with Tony Abbott constantly appearing on screen telling them how evil Labor is at everything because they are, that’s the way it is, the only way to solve all of life’s problems is to vote for him and don’t ask any of your pesky questions.
People will still ignore all the reforms that Labor under Julia Gillard has brought in, specifically made to make their lives easier.
People will still think that Labor are hopeless economic managers after they prove to be one of the few governments in the developed world to deliver a surplus in this economic climate.
Because 18 months before August 2010, Labor under Kevin Rudd was leading the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull by about 60-40% and that’s exactly the result that happened at the election, wasn’t it?
by Von Kirsdarke on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:44 pm
This is not a popularity contest – this is how is better for this country and Gillard is miles ahead of both Rudd and Abbott. The work she has done in the life of this parliament with all the challenges thrown in front of her is simply amazing and yet we have the voters wanting Rudd. The reason is simple, the voters don’t remember his temper tantrums and narcissistic personality but it wouldn’t take long until the MSM would remind everyone of it.
I’m getting fed-up with people saying she has no mandate and that she wasn’t elected. Obviously, the voters out there have absolutely no understanding of how our democracy works. IT SHOULD BE MANDATORY IN OUR SCHOOL CIRCULUM.
by Kirky on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:45 pm
von k,
Thanks! I will check it out.
by Space Kidette on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Dee – rudd’s family really are a joke – talk about media tarts!! it must be hereditary just saw his wife on tv raving on about how they were ‘ordinary’ people who looked after their mothers and grandmothers!!! good grief – is she serious!
by Lyne Lady on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:45 pm
What were her reasons, out of curiosity? And yeah, some have probably gone too far, but perhaps all these complaints were just building up inside them from not being able to express them for so long.
by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:47 pm
bluegreen – the only votes albo will swing are for jg – from the horse’s mouth…
by Lyne Lady on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Might be busy stitching up the numbers. He was Rudd last time, but has been pretty unhappy about the whiteanting, given this is a very difficult parliament to manage.
I’d be surprised if he was anything but pro-Gillard this time.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Probably because you are a lost cause
by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Gillard will walk it in. Yes, Rudd will snipe from the back bench, but I very much doubt that any of his handful of “heavyweight” supporters will really have the stomach for a second challenge before the next election.
THe huge problem for Rudd is that most of caucus don’t believe Labor would even make it to the next scheduled election with him “at the helm”, let alone win it in the schemmozzle that they’d be in by then. In such circs, his current popularity with coalition voters just doesn’t cut it.
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Busy little Menzies house contingent shipped in for the day here…should do what their leader is and STFU
by Kinkajou on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:51 pm
This is wishful thinking. Most Australians think Gillard is dishonest, and don\’t believe anything she says or does.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Disgraceful attack on Rudds family simply because he wife asks the voters to speak to their local MPs’. Is there no level the ALP mafia will stoop to degrade someone. Attack Rudd sure but leave his family alone.
by the spectator on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Penny Wong for leader! Now THERE’S an idea …
I know it is convention for the Prime Minister to sit in the House of Representatives, but is there anything in the Constitution that says it is a must?
Arguably, both Party’s best brains are in the Senate; Wong and Sinodinos.
Imagine them squaring off as PM and LOTO in Senate Question Time!
by Danny Lewis on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:53 pm
It is pretty likely that Gillard will outpoll Rudd on Monday but how many months will it be before the Australian people are put again through this unedifying spectacle.
Whoever wins on Monday is likely to face a Newspoll result on Monday or Tuesday where the Liberal 2pp has a 6 in front. The Labor primary vote will have been trashed and it will be that much harder for whoever it is to get it back to the high 30s where (if it is Gillard) she is perceived to be safe from a challenge. There will be no honeymoon bounce to come out of this challenge so the polling is going to be dire for a while. Julia Gillard will most likely win but it will be a pyrrhic victory at best.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:53 pm
There won\’t be another challenge per se. Gillard will do the honourable thing and resign when seems set to deliver a 1996 style result at the next election.
When she resigns Rudd will run for the leadership and narrowly win against Shorten or Smith.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Nope. But the idea that its likely to happen or that it would ever be Wong are fanciful to say the least.
by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Yes I agree this was an astonishing attack. I meant aren\’t MPs meant to listen to the views and desires of their constituents? It seems my local MP is gong to vote for Gillard, but I have every right to send a polite email expressing why I think this would be a mistake.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Greentard – you have forced me out of retirement.
You are certainly pumping out the shots all of them blanks.
Like the despicable Rudd you will be gone by Monday arvo however.
by Dr John on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:56 pm
I tweeted earlier that it came across to me as a shameless dog-whistle to those who disapprove of Gillard being single and “deliberately barren”. The “she’s not one of us, you know” argument.
Absolutely disgusting.
And the RUDD camp is complaining about rough treatment?
by Danny Lewis on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Ok – enough of all this.
Time for predictions of Monday’s vote (including no vote). I think the magic number is 102?
PJK: JG 75 KR 27
by PJK For President on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Classic BW.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:57 pm
You are dreaming.
Rudd throwing a tanty will not cut the mustard.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Well if this time next year it still looks like Labor is going to lose, then there is no reason NOT to go to Rudd. After all, Rudd is the only Labor leader since 1993 to win a majority in the House of Reps.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Jessica Rudd’s written a piece too: http://www.mamamia.com.au/news/jessica-rudd-talks-politics-kevin-rudd-the-spill-and-owning-it/
by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 6:59 pm