Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
I think you vastly underestimate Gillard’s abilities & political nouse, Greentard. Having got the structures right & the distractions out of the way, I suspect you will see a far more publicly political focus from her before too long. Its a long time since we’ve seen much of it, but it is something she can be very, very, good at.
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:00 pm
I didn\’t mean on Monday! I meant late this year or early next year.
See, unlike people attacking Rudd regarding his loyalty to the party and cause, I think Gillard will do what is right for the party.
She currently still seems to feel that she has a chance of winning the next election. I don\’t dispute or cast aspersions on her belief in that. I just think she is wrong.
See how that is different the Wayne Swan going completely off his tree attacking Rudd\’s loyalty to the party and cause? Of course Swan did that because he knows with Gillard gone as leader he would be axed as deputy.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:00 pm
My only concern is whether we will actually find out which news sources were complicit in pushing these rumors, and furthermore, whether we will find out what Rudd had promised in relation to policy back flips.
The Mining Boom has destroyed democracy in this country, and its only going to get worse.
by warwick on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Greentard,
Yep, she has lied just like every other politician including your loverboy, Abbott (or don’t you remember?) and then we can remember Howard and his failure to even disclose Workchoices at the 2004 election.
Some of us have been following politics a lot longer than you.
Julia has bigger cahounas than you do and I for one am glad and proud she is the leader of this great nation.
by Kirky on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Shit! Shit! Shit!
Apostrophe AND spelling fail!
Of course I meant “both parties’ best brains”…
by Danny Lewis on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:02 pm
I\’m not sure she has political nouse. If she did she wouldn\’t have promised to never introduce a carbon tax before doing just that.
There\’s nothing in her past performance that suggests to me she has the political abilities to make such a dramatic change in her performance.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Thanks Puff@1322
Actually, I am pretty talked out.
I just haven’t to the patience, time or stick-at-ability to keep at it!
I think apart from being kept up to date, I will leave the comments here to a few valiant souls and escapees from some parallel universe to banter it out.
Example: I heard Bishop in Nth Queensland kind of making the “the country is on the edge of ruination” noises and harking back to the Whitlam years. Meanwhile, I too have been out and about and the general response I have picked up is bewilderment.
This is not to say that Labor is getting any extra votes out of all this, but where it is talked about, and it is not talked about at all by many as it is just too far removed from their daily lives, the words “soap opera” is the best description.
When you see/read/hear about Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and the whole basket case in Europe, I realise that was Oz seems to need is a kind of perpetual competition.
Currently it is Rudd v Gillard. But after this is over, Rudd v Abbott, or Gillard v Abbott or anybody else versus anybody else.
It’s almost list the Price is Right or some kind of cheap TV show. Who is the villain, who is the hero. That Wicked Witch versus that Milky Bar Kid. Or maybe the Mad Monk versus the Milky Bar Kid, or just maybe the Wicked Witch against the Mad Monk.
I mean, does it really matter? Bread and circuses Roman Forum style.
Look at the on-line stuff, it’s a bit like watching a cricket match! Blow by blow, ball by ball.
And I thought we were becoming more sophisticated!
by Tricot on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Spent some time out in the real world today. General consensus seems to be: attitude to Gillard unchanged, locked in (“she can’t communicate, and is therefore not a good leader” is the general attitude, even from locked in ALP people) ; attitude to Rudd has plummeted. They’re not saying it in as many words, but the attitude seems to be that by quitting his post and intending to challenge (they all think he will) he’s trashed his own brand. “I don’t like him now,” is a typical quote.
It’s not my view. Just letting you know how it’s washing through.
Nobody’s taking any notice of the alternative party. I get the feeling that for a lot of people an election is simply a report card on the current government, not a choice between alternatives. You give them a tick or a cross, then wait a few years and do it again.
by Aguirre on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Danny
Steady on with the self-flagellation!
by BK on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Excuse me, Tony Abbott isn\’t my \”loverboy\”.
Your example of Howard re WorkChoices is apt. He didn\’t mention it during the election campaign, he then introduced it in 2005 and was voted out in 2007.
The same will happen to Gillard over the carbon tax which she promised she wouldn\’t introduce before doing just that.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Carr and McClelland could be in a spot of bother since they were meant to go last time. Even then Gillard will not want to rock the boat given the minority status. She has got an excuse but could do without recriminations. Carr is important at present in the auto industry negotiations anyway. I’d say he’s safe unless we wants to walk.
Ferguson will survive. Very diplomatic in his declaration and said prepared to work with either.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Dougie definitely in for Rudd.
And for the dopey dolphin.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-pulse/showdown-labors-leadership-crisis-live-20120223-1towt.html#ixzz1nBrL9L8u
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:07 pm
BK: hehehehehe. I’m a bit of an apostrophe nerd, which is why I freak out on the odd occasion I get it wrong.
I blame the noisy children
by Danny Lewis on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Awww poor Kim carr being intimidated…a delicated faceless man?
by Kinkajou on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:08 pm
I have no interest in the family of Mr Rudd. His private life is his own business.
However, once family members decide to become players in the political situation then they and their actions are open to comment.
Calling on voters to contact their local member to influence the vote of that member and being as proactive and public with their actions and statements as they have been over the last two days is, in my opinion, clearly being in the game. As such the Rudds leave themselves open to comment.
My opinion only.
by Doyley on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:08 pm
greentard protest too much..busted
by Kinkajou on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Thanks guys with the info. Love the collective nous here on PB.
It is looking like a lot of people have totally underestimated JG. Could be her secret weapon.
by Space Kidette on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:10 pm
LL
I just think it looks desperate & to me & Rudd should look like he is control of his own game.
The Spectator
You don’t plant yourself all over the media playing politics and expect no-one to comment. They have planted themselves smack back in the middle of the game.
by Dee on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:10 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Mrs. Rudd & Mr. Rudd’s daughter have chosen to get involved in the #respill publicly and openly http://t.co/S16Z1LRf Are they now fair game?
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:10 pm
After Monday, we’ll have a very different Gillard government – one no longer dogged by undermining and backbiting.
Even if Rudd is on the backbench, stirring the pot, everyone will know now that he’s doing it. When there’s a murmur of dissent, the fingers will point straight at him, and it will be up to him to prove his innocence.
A government no longer looking over its shoulder and wondering why its message is being ignored or distorted behaves very differently from a government with the jitters, jumping at shadows.
And, of course, the same applies to the PM.
by zoomster on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Greentard
It is not a tax.Please use information sources beyond Encyclopedia Boltapedia.
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:11 pm
The Finnigans
Yes.
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Doogie’s Rudd. Was their only spokesman until they came up with their own ‘faceless man’ Hawker.
Although I can see him coming up to Gillard afterwards in his best Private Fraser manner,
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Diog, it’s on your head
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Works even better as -
* I Dream of late this year or early next year.*
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Greentard – whatever you’re doing to put all those backslashes in, can you turn it off?
by Jackol on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Um, I think “backgrounding” doesn’t mean what Ursula Stephens thinks it means.
by Jackol on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Hi All,
Just been sitting back & watching (& tweeting a bit).
If you’d care to pay attention (Menzies House people esp.) the differnce between Gillard and her supporters v Rudd and his?
Gillard and her people talk about governing.
Rudd and his followers talk about the next election. So likely any return of Rudd would also a be return of concentration on polling and the ancillary effects of news cycle, focus groups and ‘internal’ polling. So it would be a replay of 2008/9/10
by jenauthor on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Crikey struggling again
by Jackol on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Oh, and I doubt that Rudd will step up to the plate on Monday – particularly if his numbers are as low as people are saying they are.
by zoomster on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Dio
Rudd’s been backgrounding & denigrating the PM for 18 months.
Unbelievable!
by Dee on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Georgeous Dunny
Despite his coming out for Rudd I would not be surprised if he ended up voting for Julia Gillard.He’s pretty old school and I reckon if he thinks it will be better for workers to keep Gillard, despite his personal feelings for Rudd, he’ll vote that way. Well we’ll find soon anyway.
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Yep. It matters not what or how much is said here.
Caucus on monday is where its all at.
by dave on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:20 pm
by PJK For President on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Just sent this to Cameron;
“After watching Lateline last night I find myself having to register my disgust at your attitude to the Prime Minister. That you support Kevin Rudd is both your right and your choice and I have no qualms about that. Where I must draw a line that I must ask you to respect is in the matter of you proffessing to be for the working man. The ordinary, gets up early and goes to work, gets dirty, sweaty and tired after a days labour, Australian worker. You do not represent me. You are nothing other than a Rudd elitist, albeit with an engaging brogue. You would be so far removed from the workings of my life as I would be from the inner cabinet of the Upper Mongolian Government…should one exist.
I am a 60yr old truckdriver from Brisbane. Please don’t insult my intelligence by professing to be looking out for my interests. You are not, nor have you ever.
I have “pasted ” a reply to a post on the Poll Bluger blogsight. This will sum up mine, and others, veiw on the leadership and was written on the 19/02/2012
” On the surface this may be about Rudd and Gillard. On the surface it may be about the insipidly, talentless journalists in this country. But it’s not. This is about the exercise of raw neo-conservative power. That the neo-cons have pretty much come out and admitted that they intend to bring down this Govt. speaks volumes.
This goes deeper than the present Govt. This goes to core value that all Australians should hold as sacred….” my vote is important.” These neo-cons want to buy the governance of Australia as cheaply as they can. Why wouldn’t they. They already own the media. They already own the minerals. They nearly had the entire workforce on contract. Nothing better than a workforce of pricetakers other than pricesetters….and wont that becoming back in a hurry if they win.
The faces of the neo-cons, Rhinehart, Murdock and their ilk are bad enough. The ones who control the strings, these faceless men, are the danger.
So, yes DTT, I believe that there is a conspiracy to try and seize control of the Australian democratic process. I also believe that the plotters, and you are right…they are evil, want Julia Gillard gone because from what I can see, the only people in the way of these neo-cons is Julia Gillard and her front bench.
It may possibly be about politics, polls and shit scared backbenchers. It may all be about Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd. I think this is a fight for the nations soul…..and I think the Prime Minister knows it ”
So tell me Senator, how many faceless neo-cons……the really dangerous faceless men……….have you stood up to? . How many media magnates have you defied? How many of those industries that don’t have the best interests of working Australians at heart have you made blink? How brave, how courageuos have you been in your career Senator?
Don’t bother to answer Senator. I already know it.
Your info page should have my full name, address and mobile number should you wish for verbal confirmation of the contempt in which I hold both yourself and Mr Rudd….and this email will be posted online.”
Had enough of the lot of them.
by Ian on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Yes, if he expects anything under 30 (quite a strong possibility) he won’t want the public to see, I suspect.
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Who the fcuk is Ursula Stephens?
PS ‘Ursula’ means ‘She Bear’
Why didn’t she complain about Mr Rudd and his spear carriers backgrounding stealthily for the pas 18 months?
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Have to be through his mates in the media then. He hasn’t held a candle to her in parliament. I think that’s a reason for all those MPIs and SSOs.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Watching Greentard over the past few days has been like watching a tennis player returning serves from a ball machine – every ball, every day, all day.
People forget that it was the media that started the ball rolling this week with Cassidy’s piece in the drum about the destabilization, and then Wilke saying Rudd was back-grounding anyone and everyone.
That meme was followed by others, before Crean took to him for his destabilization.
Everyone has now been blamed except the two-faced one that wants to run the Labor party. This is a situation of Rudd’s own making – nobody else.
It is now obvious that Rudd was like the father who was a drunk – perfectly normal to everybody else, but a monster at home, and after the sun had set. The party tried hard to keep the dirty linen from going public. But the drunken dad insisted on streaking through the neighborhood on a Friday night. That is essentially the story of 2010.
There is no way Rudd can avoid the press tearing him to pieces now that the cat is out of the bag – so to speak – regardless of what happens.
I am even more certain now he will out of politics by early next week.
by JohD on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:25 pm
the spectator
Totally agree!
by MTBW on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:25 pm
AFR:
http://afr.com/p/home/factbox_who_belongs_to_the_rudd_utFbWZV3578fxVw9MTXaqI
Gillard 59, Rudd 19, Unknown 25
by zoomster on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:29 pm
I am not sure I understand “are they fair game”? In what way would you want to rip into them simply because they support their husband/father. The trashing of his family simply illustrates the despicable levels some people want to go to.
by the spectator on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:30 pm
OK THe Finnigans is there an update on your list?
by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:31 pm
GORN!!
by BK on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:31 pm
“I have no interest in the family of Mr Rudd. His private life is his own business.
However, once family members decide to become players..”
Doyley – it’s become absolutely comical. Therese obviously makes those vegemite sandwiches for little Kev’s lunch.
Therese has already done very well $ out
of the Aussie public.
by Dr John on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Doogie was very adamant yesterday that Rudd was the way to go because he was popular with the punters and could win the next election. He views the best for the workers being to keep Abbott out of power. So, I think he will vote for Rudd, if there is a vote, but would fall in line with Gillard if she won.
by It’s Time on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:34 pm
the spectator
They are entitled to express their opinions just as people are entitled to express their views on those opinions. Simple. Why should they be exempt from comment about their political opinions ?
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:34 pm
If Mr Rudd chickens out on Monday, two things will happen:
(1) It will confirm that he has no ticker when the going gets tough in public.
(2) Ms Gillard will be endorsed on the voices. She will have an unassailable mandate as Leader.
I believe that Mr Rudd will run and that Ms Gillard will roll him handily. He lost control of his Stealthy destabilisation campaign’s timing and covertness. The truth is out and Labor stalwarts are not liking what they are seeing. Mr Rudd does not need the leadership. He needs treatment.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:34 pm
if Mrs Rudd chooses to give gratuitous advice on what voters should do, then I’m sure there are legitimate questions you can ask of her as to the basis of her opinion.
For example, As a person that runs a business that recommends people for employment, on what basis could she take a fee from a client to recommend her Kevvie for PM given the appalling references provided by colleagues and fellow workers about his job performance?
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:35 pm
There are going to be a heck of a lot of caucus members deeply disturbed by Theresa Rein’s decision to bring MP’s families into the media “free fire” zone of political campaigns.
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 7:36 pm