Crikey



Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”

• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.

• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.

• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.

• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013, New Zealand politics

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  1. Oscar

    Provide me with a reference for this claim.

    Umm … Google is your friend

    Google won’t be your friend looking for any evidence of that claim.

    grantplant

    Dio @ 1580;

    True. Very true.

    And yet a Democrat still won the following election nevertheless ;-)

    And they were up against a nutter as well, although as VP.

    As I said last night, it’s deja vu all over again.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:20 pm

  2. And if anyone tells me to use the scroller, I’ll scream.

    You could use your mouse.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:20 pm

  3. Lots of articles on the numbers, but few lists except Frank’s.

    The Fin Review list at http://afr.com/p/home/factbox_who_belongs_to_the_rudd_utFbWZV3578fxVw9MTXaqI paints a very similar picture to Finn’s list on Frank’s site.

    by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:20 pm

  4. Bushfire

    maybe peeps should show up at pressers and heckle the journos

    ie one of the guttersnipes starts up with some crap question- peeps can howl em down with yells of LIAR BULLSHIT ARTIST etc

    might be fun even

    ;)

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:21 pm

  5. lizzie,

    I said the sun came up this morning only for Greentard to advise this was further evidence that Gillard had no chance of winning the next election.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:22 pm

  6. Well thank you, I agree with you. Gillard showed poor judgement.

    In what exactly? Since you don’t believe Rudd is ‘such a bad person’, it can’t be for choosing to appoint him to her front bench. So what is your reference to poor judgment in the context of that post?

    by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:22 pm

  7. You could use your mouse.

    greentard,

    who are you to be giving advice when you can’t get your keyboard to work!

    by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:22 pm

  8. GG and I are down for the optimists side.

    Put me down as number 5.

    by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:22 pm

  9. Greentard

    I don\’t recall Clinton saying that Obama lacked \”Democratic values\”, which is the equivilent of Wayne Swan saying that Kevin Rudd lacks \”Labor values\”.

    You must have missed the phonecall in the night ad.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:23 pm

  10. Rod,

    I always thought you were the Chris Judd of posters.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:24 pm

  11. Google won’t be your friend looking for any evidence of that claim.

    Oh FFS! http://lmgtfy.com/?q=rudd+undermined+2010+election

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:25 pm

  12. Greentard -

    Julia Gillard determines who is in cabinet, who is a minister, and what portfolio they have.

    Ok, so in the “botched” reshuffle, it was widely acknowledged that certain ministers were not able to be dropped because of Julia Gillard’s weak position vis a vis the minority government.

    So which is it? Did Julia Gillard have ultimate power to hire and fire, or was she hamstrung by the tight numbers after 2010? I think there’s ample evidence for the latter, and that blows your argument about why Kevin Rudd got FA out of the water.

    by Jackol on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:26 pm

  13. Dio @ 1600;

    And yet that nutter of 2008 seems to be a pinko when stacked up against Santorum, Gingrich, Romney and Paul.

    Why is it I suspect Credlin and Budgie Smuggler Boy are getting their play book straight from this totally over the top madder than a junk yard dog crew of loonies?

    by grantplant on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:26 pm

  14. My biggest mistake about Rudd (I said I didn’t think there’d even be challenge, just a day or so ago) was that I didn’t believe anyone could be that vengeful and obsessed with themselves as Rudd seems to be. I was expecting him to behave rationally, and he hasn’t, not even by half.

    Likewise.

    by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:27 pm

  15. Google won’t be your friend looking for any evidence of that claim.

    I find that surprising given so many of Rudd’s own colleagues have openly stated it today and last night.

    by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:27 pm

  16. GG
    Always appreciate your humour.

    Oscar
    It was a deep, emotional cry that echoed through the corridors of power, fell to the inner liquid chasms of the earth and burst forth like a volcano, heard only by the children of democracy. “Fair go”, it cried.

    by lizzie on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:28 pm

  17. lizzie,

    Keep your finger on the down-arrow key. It’s easier and faster.

    by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:28 pm

  18. The Fin Review list at http://afr.com/p/home/factbox_who_belongs_to_the_rudd_utFbWZV3578fxVw9MTXaqI paints a very similar picture to Finn’s list on Frank’s site.

    Is there a link to Frank’s site please?

    by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:29 pm

  19. Jen

    so do I

    poss doesnt

    I’m also working on the premise that the world has speeded up.

    In the past, the volatility of the swings was slower and less extreme (I think). But 24 hr news/twitter etc has accelerated everything.

    In the past she wouldn’t have been able to get back from here, but the resurrection of the Libs after the rabble they were when Abbott came to prominence shows that acceleration.

    The world is now ‘impression’ driven (anyone whose read anything on ‘thin slicing’ as a means of decision-making will get what I mean here) .

    The big IF is how the media behave after Rudd is sent to oblivion. If they give PM a fair chance, her capabilities will shine through and, by comparison, Abbott’s shallowness will also be apparent.

    The shift only needs to be 5 points to get back to 50/50. MOE is always about 3%. It’ll be interesting to see about September/October how things are travelling.

    by jenauthor on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:29 pm

  20. I always thought you were the Chris Judd of posters.

    Nah, GG. I’m following the original. The guy Judd wanted to copy. Jimmy Hird.

    by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:29 pm

  21. It was a deep, emotional cry that echoed through the corridors of power, fell to the inner liquid chasms of the earth and burst forth like a volcano, heard only by the children of democracy. “Fair go”, it cried.

    Amazing! I heard it from here!

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:30 pm

  22. bb@1596

    That’s my very point!

    Of course she did not but the words are the ones used by the media to explain where she went next.

    My angst was with the word “retreat” as being a weasel word when just the PM went to such and such.

    You know language as well as I do. eg. “I am strong willed but you are pig headed!’ both have the same flavour but the nuance is the issue.

    by Tricot on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:30 pm

  23. Oscar

    No evidence on that search, although I liked the animation. Just speculation.

    And yet that nutter of 2008 seems to be a pinko when stacked up against Santorum, Gingrich, Romney and Paul.

    I was talking about Palin. I don’t think McCain is a nutter. More of a crank.

    Romney is probably about the same as Macca. Palin and Santorum are pretty similar. Evidently Santorum is a really nice guy though. Romney is a complete knob.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:30 pm

  24. fess,

    There you go.

    http://afrankview.net/

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:32 pm

  25. jen,

    The Earth’s rotation is slowing down from rotational energy transfer to the moon’s orbit through tides. The moon is very slowly increasing its orbital radius.

    h­ttp://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_the_rotation_of_the_earth_speeding_up_or_slowing_down

    by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:32 pm

  26. Gawd even I have more respect for the PM than some of the Labor supporters here. You don’t do these internal feuds by half do you?

    It’s just one of those days when discussion gets usurped by people shouting their opinions at each other over and over, until they hyperventilate.

    It’s the inevitable result of something big happening and there being not nearly enough follow-up information. There’s a mad rush to be right – apparently the more posts you rack up and the more strident your tone, the more right you are.

    People ought to figure out quite easily that you can’t predict the result of the next election, because you can’t predict the events that will lead up to it. It’s hardly possible to predict what will happen next Monday with any great certainty. But that doesn’t stop them. All you need are a few preconceptions and it’s apparently possible to know everything.

    by Aguirre on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:32 pm

  27. In what exactly? Since you don’t believe Rudd is ‘such a bad person’, it can’t be for choosing to appoint him to her front bench. So what is your reference to poor judgment in the context of that post?

    Well one example is that Gillard said that a government she lead would never introduce a carbon tax which she has now done.

    Many voters perceive this as a dishonest lie which means they don\’t take anything else she says or does seriously. It is a difficult position for a political leader to be in where everything they do or say is by default considered wrong, dishonest, or manipulative by the broader community.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:32 pm

  28. No evidence on that search, although I liked the animation. Just speculation.

    Diog,

    I just provide the evidence – which is what you asked for.

    Unfortunately, I can’t make you accept it if your mind is already closed :(

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:33 pm

  29. Sorry Fess. Should have posted it. The list is at

    http://afrankview.net/2012/02/a-quick-dirty-list-of-declared-supporters/

    by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:33 pm

  30. was expecting him to behave rationally, and he hasn’t, not even by half.

    All economics pre-Kahneman and Tservsky is based on that premise. That’s why economics is of such limited validity as a science. It’s based on a flawed premise.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:34 pm

  31. Rod,

    These days they call Hirdy Toyota Hi Ace because he’s half a coach.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:34 pm

  32. And if anyone tells me to use the scroller, I’ll scream.

    Yeah, use it, we dare you.

    Lizzie, I think it was you who expressed interest in the Channel-Billed Cuckoo chicks.

    They are now (thank the Gods and kiss the Earth) gone. Their real parents came and got them.

    The parents took up short term residence for about two weeks. One went almost straightaway, and the other took a bit longer. One of the parents stayed behind to round him/her up.

    Poor currawongs. After nearly four months of rearing strangers in their nest, nearly sending themselves crazy with work and food gathering due to the size of the chicks, they’re just left with nothing except the loss of (what they think were) their own offspring. They actually attacked the cuckoo parents, because they thought they were defending the cuckoos own chicks against predators.

    They have been bulking themselves up on mince ever since. Starting to get their coats looking glossy again, but it will take a while.

    But definitely the parents came for them and took them away.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:34 pm

  33. Dio @ 1622;

    Santorum is ‘nice’ as far as crypto-religious-fascistic-fundamentalists go – yeah ;-)

    by grantplant on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:35 pm

  34. Oscar

    An assertion by Conroy isn’t “evidence”. It’s an allegation without evidence.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:35 pm

  35. Many voters perceive this as a dishonest lie..

    Greentard,

    what is with ‘dishonest lie’? what is an example of an honest lie?

    by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:36 pm

  36. Diog,

    I just provide the evidence – which is what you asked for.

    Unfortunately, I can’t make you accept it if your mind is already closed :(

    Have you found a reference yet?

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:37 pm

  37. Put me down for Gillard still as PM in 2014.

    The numbers seem to be developing as I expected with Rudd stuck in the 20s. I really didn’t think he’d call it on with numbers so embarrassingly low but it seems his hatred and ego overrode any remaining good sense. He won’t go quietly either, but the majority of caucus understand this. The small rump of bed wetters who have come up with no reason for Ruddstoration other than he does good in the polls are irrelevant. As more and more evidence piles up that they are enabling the biggest lump of lead in the government’s saddle bags they’ll lose heart for the guerilla campaign.

    As for Crean et al going overboard I actually think they could and should have gone harder. This government has obviously been infected by a cancer at it’s very heart for a long time now. Due to respect for a past leader and the calculus of the numbers Gillard has done everything possible to give Rudd the opportunity to join the team and contribute to the best of his abilities. Instead he has sought to undermine what has been on the record of results one of the best governments in my lifetime all for his own vainglorious ends. Screw him. Screw him hard.

    The caucus obviously got it right in 2010 but the government has paid a heavy price for not being frank and forthright about why it had to be done. Now that error can be rectified and they should make absolutely sure that no one is under any doubt that the “Kevin from Queensland who’s here to help” that so many people yearn for is nothing but a thin veneer to hide the dysfunctional egotist within. It is pretty clear now that the deep hatred he has engendered throughout his entire career is not due to pushing underlings to achieve more in the name of a greater good, but merely through the burning up of anyone and anything that got in the way of his overweening ambition.

    He needs to be trashed. Not out of sense of revenge, although the victims of his duplicity (i.e. the whole Labor caucus) certainly have just cause. He needs to be trashed to allow the voters to look on the government in a new light. To allow people to see where the real strength in the government has always resided. Some will say it isn’t a ‘good look’ to do so. That’s crap. No one in politics ever lost ground through kicking their opponents to the kerb. Strength is always popular. It has been this government’s weakness that has seen it’s vote ebb away. The structural weaknesses of the minority status, the weakness of facing a large noisy and well funded group of vested interests intend on bringing it down, and yes the weaknesses due to some of Julia’s missteps have all hurt. But most of all the weakness caused by Rudd popping up to deflect from every step forward the government has made has hurt in the polls.

    Disunity is Death. But any easing up on Rudd will only allow the source of the disunity to fester. Only by crushing him now and kicking him the kerb each and every time he pokes his head out of his foxhole to undermine her government will Julia gain respect and command the discipline and unity of her party. Stuff liked. Howard was widely reviled, even amongst Liberals. But he was respected inside and out of the party. That is Julia’s path. Demand respect by the example of your victories.

    We saw a glimpse today. When she doesn’t worry about who she might offend and just tells it like it is she commands your attention. When the heavy hitters in the government come out solidly to support her and to tear strips off Rudd she commands your respect as a formidable foe and a strong leader.

    Up to 20 months still to go. Plenty of time to claim Rudd’s pelt and then set her sights on Abbott. She has the steel, and most importantly she has the policy and economic weapons to succeed. Underestimate our Prime Minister at your own peril.

    by ratsak on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:37 pm

  38. Dio @ 1629;

    Spot bloody on. Read Eric Beinhocker’s ‘The Origin of Wealth’ yet?

    by grantplant on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:37 pm

  39. An assertion by Conroy isn’t “evidence”. It’s an allegation without evidence.

    As I say, I only provide the evidence. Like Swan’s written statements to that effect. Or any of several other sources. How many do you need before you are willing to accept it?

    You assessed the evidence and found it not to your liking. That’s your perogative. But stop saying I didn’t provide any – I did.

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:39 pm

  40. jen,

    The Earth’s rotation is slowing down from rotational energy transfer to the moon’s orbit through tides. The moon is very slowly increasing its orbital radius.

    h­ttp://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_the_rotation_of_the_earth_speeding_up_or_slowing_down

    TBLD are you my son??????

    by jenauthor on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:39 pm

  41. Oscar @ 1610:

    Great link! How did you do that?

    by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:39 pm

  42. Bushfire

    So glad you’ve been relieved of the squawking.
    Could you possibly report the details to the NSW Ornithologists (they may have changed their name, not sure) or Birds Australia (now Birdlife Australia)?
    It needs to go into the records to confirm the “parent pickup”.

    by lizzie on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:39 pm

  43. I don’t know if Gillard can win the next election. However, she is the only Labor leader who can continue to deliver policy in THIS parliament. She is the only leader who can have the NBN ireversibly underway. She is the only one who can have the carbon tax compensation in place, the mining tax in place, hopefully an NDIS and perhaps even the beginnings of a long term regional solution to the asylum seeker issue.

    What is the point of electing Rudd because he MIGHT win an election if he scraps most of the key reforms anyway? I would rather see vital reforms and long term changes embedded before a Liberal government can stop or reverse them.

    by Bob Figg on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:40 pm

  44. Have you found a reference yet?

    Did you try the link I posted?

    Or perhaps no-one has ever explained to you the difference between evidence and proof

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:40 pm

  45. Ok, so in the “botched” reshuffle, it was widely acknowledged that certain ministers were not able to be dropped because of Julia Gillard’s weak position vis a vis the minority government.

    So which is it? Did Julia Gillard have ultimate power to hire and fire, or was she hamstrung by the tight numbers after 2010? I think there’s ample evidence for the latter, and that blows your argument about why Kevin Rudd got FA out of the water.

    Hey, you know how MSM logic is. Everything bad is Gillard’s fault, just because. And anything good doesn’t need to be reported unless you can spin a Kevin Rudd angle on it or remind people she’s embattled/unpopular/whatever.

    by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:40 pm

  46. Scarpat

    Many voters perceive this as a dishonest lie..

    Greentard,

    what is with ‘dishonest lie’? what is an example of an honest lie?

    Why a John “rattus rattus” Howard non core promise of course :(

    by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:40 pm

  47. As I say, I only provide the evidence. Like Swan’s written statements to that effect. Or any of several other sources. How many do you need before you are willing to accept it?

    Um, no. If you said Swan doesn\’t like Kevin Rudd, and you provided a link to the statement Swan released last night, that would be good evidence backing up a claim.

    So far all you have done is made a claim, but now you haven\’t backed it up with supporting reference(s).

    You assessed the evidence and found it not to your liking. That’s your perogative. But stop saying I didn’t provide any – I did.

    Wrong. You haven\’t presented any evidence, you have just made an assertion that at this stage should be considered baseless.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:41 pm

  48. Great link! How did you do that?

    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=let+me+google+that+for+you

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:43 pm

  49. Did you try the link I posted?

    Or perhaps no-one has ever explained to you the difference between evidence and proof

    You have provided neither evidence nor proof.

    Don\’t make your job any harder than it already is.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:43 pm

  50. That AFR list has John Murphy in the “Undecided” column. He has sent a message to his local party branch that he is a Gillard supporter.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 23, 2012 at 9:44 pm

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