Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
Gillard is shortening again in to $1.20.
Rudd out to $4.25.
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Incredible performance, he must be a dolebludger getting paid by the word. Everybody else seems to have a life.
by JohD on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:06 pm
rosa,
Yes, indeed William Faulkner was a fine writer.
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Being paid by the post?
by Kinkajou on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Nothing wrong with Mormons.
And let’s aim for the moon is actually seen as an….’aspirational’ idea from what I’ve seen. At least the intent behind it to support NASA more. Implementation is much to be desired, but people seem to support it in theory.
Much like the carbon tax
by Sertse on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:07 pm
JohD @1676,
I enjoy your posts and was very interested with your statement that you are not a labor voter.
I understand 100% if you choose not to answer but could I ask which party you lean to, if any ?
cheers.
by Doyley on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:07 pm
snap JD
by Kinkajou on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Speak for yourself!
I’d suggest to ShowsOn that he needs to do a better job than splicing in a few backslashes though
.
by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:09 pm
I was attacked for suggesting this only months earlier.
Suffice to say I’m pleased that people have finally cottoned onto this. The only reason Rudd was able to white ant to the extent he did was because nobody ever came clean on the REAL reason he was removed.
Better late than never, as they say.
by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Prof Cole on Republican’s madness on Iran
Gingrich calls for an invasion
_________________
http://www.juancole.com/
by deblonay on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:10 pm
The betting odds on Labor leader for next election are basically
33% Gillard
33% Rudd
33% someone else
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Of course, the corollary of this argument is that Rudd is not dysfunctional, that he is a brilliant Foreign Minister and Gillard’s decision to appoint him as such was a sign she is a brilliant administrator and Prime Minister.
Either that or you simply recognize that she had to shut him up somehow and this was a method tailored to his undoubted ministerial skills, and which kept him out of the country as a bonus.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Mick Collins @ # 1671
“As an Observation, Ms Gillard has shiown nothing but grace and dignity in this whole shemozzle.”
Which is a hell of a lot more than you can say for Rudd with his back stabbing and betrayal of the ALP, its members and the voters.
by Ratsars on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Mormons are a cult a/c to republican Christians who should know about that sort of thing.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Let\’s say the polls then have Gillard behind by the same amount she is now (roughly 54/46), should she resign and let someone else try to win?
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Sertse
Have you read the book of Mormon ? I have. The average five year old would question it.A hint should be the name of their uber important angel, Moroni……..it has a silent “i”
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:13 pm
before terraforming the moon we should try to live sustainably on earth. It could be an aspirational sort of thing.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:14 pm
If JG wins the ballot on Monday then I’m also for Labor winnning in 2013
Finns – I see you’ve got Harry Jenkins for Rudd. I thought he said yesterday that he was in the Gillard camp. Has he spoken since of a change in sides?
by BH on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:14 pm
I vote green most of the time and preference Labor, mainly because I think Labor are RW. I am however aware that ideology is relative, and the majority will always coalesce around the centre – so I try to do my bit pushing the leftwing as far to the left as possible. My ideal situation has Labor in power and the Greens in control of the Senate.
by JohD on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:14 pm
This is a lot of silly nonsense instead of just providing one piece of evidence to back up your claim.
It seems you have walked away from your claim due to a lack of evidence.
Dio
Surely you meant Shortening?
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:14 pm
could someone who knows clarify whose side Mike Kelly is on?
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Bizarre Mormon story.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/21/mormons-posthumous-baptism-anne-frank_n_1292102.html?ref=mostpopular
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:15 pm
There\’s no reason to be so smug and arrogant.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Fess, i have said many times. i am much better than the #MSMhacks in making up things.
But i do my making based on the science of the greatest number of empirical facts by logical deduction from the smallest number of hypotheses or axioms.
And i published my dissertation about 3 light years before AFR on AFV
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Is Shorten shortening?
by deflationite on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Greentard
Are you or have you ever been a member of the young Liberals ?
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:17 pm
GT 45 posts in 75 minutes…ausgeseichnet!!! . Hope your getting at least a dollar a post
by Kinkajou on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:17 pm
BW, Mike Kelly supports the PM but he wont say due to his military background.
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:17 pm
So, let me get this straight … you are asserting – without evidence – that my evidence is simple assertion without evidence.
So by your own logic … no, wait … I’m getting confused!
Sorry. By any standard, written testimonials by those intimately involved at the time are evidence. You can of course try to refute this evidence if you so choose, but I notice that you do not even try to so . You merely claim it is not “evidence”.
by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:17 pm
From markjs on Frank’s site:
http://afrankview.net/2012/02/a-quick-dirty-list-of-declared-supporters/
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Must still be one to be keeping up this cracking pace
by Kinkajou on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Prof cole on Israeli attack on General Dempsey Chief of US General Staff
________________________________________________________
Netanyahu says he “is serving Iran’s policies”
We know from an incident some moinths ago that Obama dislikes the Isreali leadership(as does Sarkosi and Merkel)
now the attack on the General represents a very mad policy
http://www.juancole.com/2012/02/israeli-pm-netanyahu-attacks-gen-dempsey-as-servant-of-iran.html
by deblonay on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Bring on the Aussie Summer Revolution!
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Tree Surgeon, you are bizarre, but i never complain about it.
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:18 pm
No, my simple point was that if Rudd is as bad as what the Gillard forces now say he is, then that means that Gillard showed terrible judgement.
A more likely explanation is that Rudd actually isn\’t as bad as they say he is, but in order to convince their colleagues to vote against him, they are now greatly exaggerating, which has the side effect of making Gillard look just as bad.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:19 pm
GG
Because he demonstrably is so.
Abbott was heading for a hiding in 2010 until Rudd’s bastard act, and he’s been the lead in the saddle of the government ever since. Poor old TP might be a bit slow but whilst ever Rudd is around the government will suffer from disunity, because Rudd is the driving force of that disunity. He will obviously accept no other verdict than to be allowed to lead. Unlike Abbott, who has only threatened to wreck the place if he didn’t get what he wanted, Rudd has actually made good on his threats. Only he and his weak minded fellow conspirators could be so convinced of his divine right to rule that they could dream up the plan of destroying the government to save the government.
He must be crushed without mercy. Only then can we shift our gaze to Abbott.
by ratsak on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:19 pm
deflationite
The real deal is here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIMqe47jSWg
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:19 pm
To stop the damaging leaks in the campaign. See Latham piece in AFR last week.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:19 pm
deflationite
That one is just for the ballot, so it’s just Rudd vs Gillard.
Shorten is lengthening as next leader, out to 10/1.
by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:20 pm
JohD @1718,
Thanks for that.
I respect you view and outlook.
cheers.
by Doyley on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:20 pm
BH, if you dont like that i can change
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Finns,
You don’t have John Faulkner on your list. Apparently he is for Rudd(?)
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:20 pm
poroti,
1) Are you or have you ever been a member of the Communist Party of Australia?
2) If you know anyone who has been a member of the Communist Party of Australia, will you testify to that effect at a Senate Committee?
3) If you are unwilling to testify, you will be subpoenaed.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Finns – you didn’t tell me about Harry Jenkins. Why do you have him on the Rudd side please?
by BH on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:21 pm
There\’s a lot of words here but still no single reference to back up your claim.
I strongly suspect you simply made it up, else you would\’ve just presented some evidence and moved on.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:22 pm
What will happen – Gillard wins the first ballot, but she is weakened, and Rudd takes over sometime towards the end of the year. Or a compromise candidate if the party can’t stand Rudd that much.
by morgieb on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Gary Sparrow
Bring on the episode when Gary Sparrow chose to live in the 1940′s
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Great piece Ratsak. Julia indeed is beginning to show that ‘steel’ we always knew was there. That calmness under pressure, that refusal to be drawn into the daily tittle tattle. Gentleness, humility, frugality sum up Julia. She is a leader amongst men.
As an old policy wonk I live by the axiom that ‘There’s no such thing as failed strategy, just failed implementation.’ Julia understands this implicitly and the more hysterical and noisy her critics become the more I take comfort in the legacy she is creating. The completed legacy isn’t quite there just yet, but it is within her grasp.
by Rossmore on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:23 pm
One of the problems in such situations is that too dramatic a change in statements can itself cause difficulties. I first heard rumbles about the problems many, many months before the “unseating” of Rudd, and they were certainly getting very serious by the beginning of that year, but doing anything about it at the time when he was still riding very high in public estimation would have been well nigh impossible. To their credit, people stayed very tight and maintained loyalty despite all, until it simply became completely unsustainable and his flaws were starting to become increasingly publicly apparent. To suddenly turn around and say honestly that “the guy’s a nutter” just wouldn’t have seemed credible at the time
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Latest fast moving feast count: Gillard 60 Rudd 17 – http://bit.ly/zIqBQp
by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:24 pm