Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
Motley Crue said it best . “Don’t Go away Mad.Just Go Away.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI4SzEb5tog
by poroti on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:53 pm
their Kevin’s and Julia is juggling them.
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:53 pm
the chicken’s balls?
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Very disturbing to hear that MPs are having their children removed from schools and sent to gulags and their partners are being hung up in dungeons and having their toenails removed by snapping turtles if they don’t vote for Rudd.
Those are the bully boy tactics of the Rudd mafia, fully endorsed of course by his fan club here.
See, we can all make up stories and fantastic lies.
by HaveAchat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:54 pm
I agree. Swan in particular has done more damage to the Labor brand than any opposition leader since Rudd was elected PM.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:54 pm
In fact out of all the TV news programs, the only pro-Julia voters they could find were in her own electorate.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:54 pm
the next election is in 18 months…
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:55 pm
I think Rudd will get in the high 30s which will be enough for him to challenge again later in the year after Gillard resigns due to poor polls because many people think she is a total liar.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:55 pm
I feel a little greentarded after reading pb today.
by deflationite on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:55 pm
But he won’t be FM! No more overseas jaunts for the Ruddster no matter what happens!
by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
scarps
Hmmmm
cant fit the LLA into that one
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Greentard: Swan should be sacked from the front bench – that was a display of petulance and rank stupidity.
I’m going to enjoy the defeat of Swan in Lilley in 2013 – couldn’t happen to a more deserving piece of garbage.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
QUICK! Get Bradbury onto another patrol boat!
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Danny Lewis
Yep, I’m with you. But said it differently.
I predicted (earlier) the vote would be 102 – 0.
TP furiously backpedalling now – is agreeing too
For a while there I was thinking Greentard was Rudd
but, then again, Rudd does have some intelligence.
by kezza2 on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Greentard,
so now she has both the ‘dishonest liar’ and the ‘honest liar’ field covered?
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
I love how the Seven news goes to Hurstville and gets a result of “I don’t care” and “Other” getting 33% or something.
by Sertse on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Quiggan’s right. Its the only chance of beating Abbott. This will evenutally tell – though I suspect it will 2013 before it does.
I’ll grant Team Gillard this: Rudd needs to be put on a new leash when he comes back. I dont like hearing about the control freakery etc, and Ministers should be able to run their own areas. but unlike some others, I see this as an important, but 2nd order issue. Im actually more interested in preventng Abbott getting to power.
Team Gillrd will, I suspect, have their win on Monday. But it wont be by enough, and it wont get Gillard to the poll.
Team Rudd have outplayed you: none of them are osng their nut. None of them are taking a dump in public, and none are making asses of themselves.
They look the sane ones. They will prevail.
by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
hmmm
that explains the sudden shortage of snapping turtles down at the torture store today
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Mike tweeted to me a few days ago he is pro Gillard. Also think his military training would see treasonous to back someone other than the fearless leader.
Incidentally Husic also tweeted his support, but then the next day he got on telly angry about how Rudd was being portrayed so who knows?
by jenauthor on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
I believe Rudd will get into the mid 40s.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Mike Kelly? He’s safe for Julia, but he’s sick of talking about it, according to Gus.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Yeah! All that “World’s best treasurer” stuff! Who couldn’t see that he only did that to undermine Rudd!
by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
His white anting tactics has been neutered; the MSM will have about as much regard for him as they did Latham, probably much less. He has brought them into disrepute as players in a dirty game. He has tarnished quite a few high profile people. Nobody is going to want to go down for him. Think about how Laurie Oakes is feeling right about now. Rudd is history, they will crush him on the way down. Four newsmen were privy to Rudd’s ‘back grounding’. A hundred will participate, with full details, in his take down
by JohD on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Who should be the new deputy leader after Wayne Swan resigns due to poor polling numbers and general stupidity?
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Rudd’s ultimate weapon
_________________
Rudd could just resign from the House and precipate a by-election which Labor would lose in a landslide
Then the govt’s hold on the House would be in peril….depending on Slipper parhaps..who doesn’t want an election either…having just got into his fancy uniform..
but all this is possible…and in Rudd’s hands completly
no matter what the Causus decided…or he could sit in the House as an indie
by deblonay on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
TLM,
Evan, I can feel your ‘Red Haired Bitch’ is dying to burst forth…
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Dio
Re your posthumous mormon baptism post
Have you see this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101710381
Bill Maher Unbaptises mitt romney’s father in law
(who was posthumously mormon baptised 14 months after his death)
Reckon you’ll get a kick out of it.
by kezza2 on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Will Kevvie fight (and stand) or run (and give a nobody loves me speech) on Monday?
59 hours till the shoot-out.
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
There is no mistaking when Shows on is posting. And he aint right now.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
According to Wikipedia, he’s already in his mid 50′s
by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Evan
for a supposeedly ahem labor person, your persona falls away everytime
it is so so sad that u play this charade
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Keating was sitting on 27% PPM to Hewsons 43% 20 months into his first term.
Howard was on 34%PPM 18 months into his own first term.
Both won the subsequent election.
Gillard at present ranks more highly as PPM than either of them at the same time in their PM career.
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Yes and she is perceived as being a total liar and an abject liar and a liar\’s liar.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
GS,
but…but… you just said that he would either win or go close…that ain’t the 40′s.
by Scarpat on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm
If Rudd quits Labor, then he’s a chicken, and has no balls.
by zoidlord on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm
I believe Rudd will get 20 votes.
Sayonara.
by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Well am beginning to think given the extremely vitriolic campaign against Rudd that if he did resign some others might join him, and that would certainly bring down the government.
These fools are simple that.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Voters don\’t read European finance magazines.
All they know is that Swan isn\’t able to sell an idea. It sounds like he doesn\’t believe in what he is saying.
Good policy isn\’t enough, you have to be able to sell it, Gillard / Swan are very bad at that.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Yeah and Rudd\’s figures were even higher…
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:01 pm
His ambition & ego count against him doing that, deblonay. If he did so he’d be completely cutting himself off from any possibility of a return to office.
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:02 pm
what is “ENOUGH”
WHAT POLL?
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:02 pm
How’s your bet with ru looking, ML?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Sorry, might have been the way I worded it.
I meant that, in the past, he could drop a bomb to a journo just before he jetted off, then watch from afar and return once the dust has settled.
Can’t do that now, though. Unless he plans to go on lots of study trips
by Danny Lewis on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Rudd will never sit as an indie – its the head job or nothing.
Poor bugger, nobody likes him.
by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:03 pm
I’m not an expert but do chickens have balls where you can juggle them?
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
rod
just tweeted poss ur figures
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
TLM
Everyone that they showed being interviewed – are you really that disingenuous?
by Think Big on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Clearly there are some people who say they are going to vote for Gillard who will actually vote for Rudd on the day.
Some have been intimidated into saying they will vote for Gillard, but actually want Rudd back.
Others will vote strategically. They will wait until it seems certain Gillard is going to win, but then vote for Rudd so that Gillard doesn\’t win by a huge margin.
The reason for this tactical voting is simple. It is in the interests of certain right wing affiliated Gillard supporters, e.g. Shorten, Arbib, Conroy to further weaken Gillard\’s leadership so the speculation continues and ultimately leads to her resignation. Their long term plan is to install one of their own.
Of course this will just leave open an opportunity for Rudd to return later in the year.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
But they are voters they don’t seem to matter to the ALP mafia
by the spectator on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Bemused
Mr Quiggan is in cloud cuckoo land. Mr Rudd was the ultimate in toxic managers.
by Boerwar on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm