Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
TLM, sorry I must laugh. Taking a ‘snapshot’ of specific people in an electorate like Lindsay is ALWAYS going to be biased one way or another.
If you want to use that as evidence you truly must be feeling sick to the pit of your stomach with desperation.
If even HALF of what’s been said about Rudd is true, you do yourself and this country a massive disservice by supporting him in his quest for political stardom.
by jenauthor on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
That should be 83 hours!
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
2013 poll, Gus.
Enough? I guess 80-20 would be adequately comprehensive to still another move later. Im guessing she wont get that much.
Sustained opinion poll shift is her best chance.
by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
I doubt he will do it.
But after the way he has been attacked by Swan, you can\’t blame him if he does quit the party.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Get ready for PM Shorten.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:06 pm
@Greentard/1903,
Even before Swan did that, he’s still a chicken, because he’s been hiding behind the true faceless men, the media.
The same media who helped defeat him as PM.
by zoidlord on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Put me down for 21 for Rudd, in the sweepstakes. Winner gets the bottle of Grange hidden in the secret safe in the PB lounge. What’s your number Duckie?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Rudd’s resignation was sheer brilliance, no other word for it.
Total bombshell that shook them all, had them scurrying and on the back foot and left with the first thing that came to mind, a smear campaign of idiotic proportions before he could get back.
That’s all they got, a smear campaign.
Their are argument is simply:
Rudd – bad, very bad
Gillard – good
But I am afraid at the end of the day Gillard can’t has cheesburger. Abbott gets cheesburger.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:07 pm
For those brimming with confidence and joy at the prospect of a convincing win for Gillard on Monday and how everything will be sweet and dandy with rock solid solidarity for the winner, just a quick thought…
Can you imagine the Coalition ads for the next 18 months: all they have to do is quote the ALP words about the ALP?
Can you imagine the questions about Gillard’s judgement having this man described as a borderline psychopath as her FM?
Does anyone seriously think the ALP Ruddistas will take the abuse and character assassination of Rudd silently?
by Mod Lib on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Tony Jones comments was speaking to senior ALP figures they would rather lose the next election than have Rudd back in power. And these are supposed true believers in ALP.
by the spectator on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Puff,
Rudd wimps and goes foetal.
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:08 pm
So earlier in the day there were 6 rudd suporters here at PB and about 10 Gillard, and a few uncommitted. Any changes?
by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Rudd loves the Labor Party too much to take either the resign from parliament or becoming an independent option.
Yes, despite how much he’s vilified by the senior members of the Gillard Government, he’ll help get legislation through the lower house.
Being a backbench MP could be liberating for Rudd – much to the frustration of the Gillardites here, the media will still cover everything KR does, he’ll still be campaigning for Anna Bligh and other MPs, and he can do all manner of things in Griffith, like opening schools etc.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Puff,
Who let all these blowies into the lounge?
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
DavidWH From p33
Huh ? this is nothing compared to the meltdowns that occur whenever they change a coach down at Tigerland
by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Mod
bring it on
bring it on!!
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
I only hope GreenHARD is covered by a union, he/she/it has put in a long night/ day/night again, any penalty rates, mayer going for RSI compo , banging away at that dodgy keyboard Anyway night night
by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
duckie,
if you are right, you get a round of stilton too.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
If Rudd doesn’t get much on Monday, or doesn’t challenge then it doesn’t matter too much, that is only a distraction. Nothing changes whilst Labor are looking at electoral oblivion and Rudd the only guy around with presently the electoral support to save their jobs.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
The point is, Greentard, that personal popularity at this phase of an electoral cycle is not a reliable indicator of success at the following election. Heck. Alexander Downer was sitting on 48% PPM to Keatings 28% in June 1994 and Mark Latham was level with Howard in March 2004. We all know what subsequently happened to them!
by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
this is one of the few things that could adequately explain the utterly insane antics of certain pro-Gillard frontbenchers in recent days: their escape pod is actually an Option C.
Combet’s a far better option if it comes to that. Doesnt have the faceless smell.
by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Finns Sharon Bird
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/news/local/news/general/illawarra-mps-pledge-support-for-gillard/2464886.aspx
by jenauthor on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:11 pm
well most of the ahem rudd supporters are fib bots
so no, no change
just the usual shite from our erstwhile fibs
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:11 pm
There\’s clearly a few similar minded people hear.
Their hatred of Kevin Rudd exceeds their desire to stop Tony Abbott becoming PM.
I\’m sure if Tony Abbott is elected they will heap all the blame on Rudd and say it was non of Gillard\’s fault.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Boerwar @ 1899
Well if you say that, I am even more convinced John Quiggin is correct. His version of reality will trump your obsessions any day.
by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:11 pm
And the smear job from Swan and Conroy and the other bovver boys ain’t going to affect Rudd’s popularity, not one iota.
He’ll still be the elephant in the room that the red headed woman fears, and this time, she’ll have no control over him whatsoever.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Rudd is gone but we knew that.
Will he squib the ballot for a Third time?
Hope not, deserves to sit on the back bench with some dignity. (Despite being a prick).
by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Martin O’Shannesy said on Sky today that Rudd’s lowest negative satisfaction (I think) was -19, whereas Gillard’s is -22.
Is that right?
by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Puff,
About 30 years ago I had dinner at Mure’s in Hobart. At the end I asked for port and Stilton and they brought out a whole round and said “Help yourself.” Magic or what!
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Tony Jones was only stating the obvious. Thats exactly what it looks like As I say – these guys have screwed up monumentally, and about Friday next week even they will start to realise it.
I think they shoud be sacked from cabinet in the interests of party unity. No one will miss them.
by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
All you have to do is look at the latest Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll that have asked \”preferred Labor leader\” questions, and they all show the same thing. Rudd is far more popular in the general electorate than Gillard.
Now maybe all those polls just happen to be wrong. But that is the best statical / empirical evidence we have on the question.
by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
As for Gillard: I found her unconvincing and self-serving today, hardly Prime Ministerial.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:14 pm
It seems that most of the Gillard supporters here only have childish taunts.
I mean why would you even bother to post something like that. It is baby talk, not even humorous or clever, just nothing.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:14 pm
No it will go the other way. Rudd will be a new man on the back bench. He will formulate policy be out constantly campaigning, speeches etc. Rudd unleashed.
by the spectator on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Either way the biggest loser on Monday will be Gillard no matter the result.
She’s the Billy McMahon of Labor haha!
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Finns,
@1921. Time to update Teh List.
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Clear the decks, win 80-20 and use the next 18 months to govern.
No more whiteanting from a traitor (campaigning against the pokie reform when he used to hate them!), just a united party focused on the real enemy.
by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
But but don’t you know that NONE of it is true, not one little scrap of it. They’re ALL making it up – all these ALP MPs are just lying liars who lie, and those journos were just fibbing fibbers who fibbed – it’s ALL wrong, Kevin Rudd is the blessed one who shall take us to the promised land.
AND even if any of it IS true, it’s all Julia Gillard’s fault because, you know, she KNIFED him and therefore it’s ok for Kevin Rudd to do anything and everything, including destroying the party in order to extract revenge. Because, yknow, it’s justice and all that.
Gah.
by Jackol on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:16 pm
TP – tick
TLM – tick
bemused – tick
lefty e – tick
greentard – tick
Oh, don’t mind me – I’m just assuming you guys are a bit like “Crater Critters” – i.e. more valuable if you can collect the whole set!
Damn – where’s ShowsOn?
by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:16 pm
the spectator @ 1909
Plenty of that attitude here. And yet they have the audacity to attribute such sentiments to Rudd and his supporters.
by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:16 pm
@TP/1932,
You must be a boring person to live with if you can’t have a laugh.
by zoidlord on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Mumble made this same point to Latika Bourke who was carrying on about vox pops earlier today. At the end of the day, said Brent, vox pops are filtered through the editing suite and are therefore meaningless.
I’d put online polls in the same category.
by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Well that will be the factional bover boys in safe seats who couldn’t care that much, better Rudd gone, Labor gone, but their personal power safe.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:16 pm
*off*
by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:17 pm
mari,
He is a lib and has been workchoiced, OH&s stands for Occupational Hell & Serfdom
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Beautiful.
by Fiz on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Glen/Gary Sparrow: LOL
I note too that Julie Bishop commented earlier today that she always found Rudd cordial and very pleasant to deal with, and we know too that Slipper is a mate of Rudd’s, so he’d be welcome if he did cross the Rubicon over to the other side.
Turnball then might make a bid for the Labor leadership.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:17 pm
And don’t forget peeps that Rudd had the fastest decline in Newspoll history!
by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Nicola did say that Kevvie is not the Messiah. She didn’t say the next bit.
by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:17 pm
oscar
steady on
shows aint in the others band
for all his faults he is not ahem playing a game
by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:18 pm