Crikey



Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”

• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.

• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.

• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.

• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.

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  1. Martin O’Shannesy said on Sky today that Rudd’s lowest negative satisfaction (I think) was -19, whereas Gillard’s is -22.

    Is that right?

    Yes.

    By way of comparison, again, Howard was on -25 satisfaction in October, 1997 and Keating was on a whopping -44 (24% satisfied, 68% dissatisfied) in July 1992 (before .winning the following election in each case). Julia herself had blown out to something similar in August last year, but had recovered a lot of ground before the latest Rudd games.

    These things can be very volatile. People who make judgements on polls alone this far out from an election can end up with a lot of egg on their face.

    by Rod Hagen on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:40 pm

  2. Mod Lib:

    As I’ve been saying for ages now (and feeling like a broken record), the reason Rudd and his acolytes have been able to play the martyr is because the reasons he was removed (the REAL reasons) haven’t been able to come to light.

    Gillard and her Cabinet leadership team protected Rudd’s reputation and he decides to repay them the way he did.

    Rudd and his backers make the Abbott-Credlin-Loughnane axis look like dedicated team players.

    by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:40 pm

  3. Yes Evan cos Griffith result last election says…the opposite.
    Oops.

    by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:40 pm

  4. From answering the polls that are newspaper websites, it seems Gillard is very unpopular (or is that because the Australian attracts a certain target audience?). Anyway, when I did the poll (obviously voting for Gillard) it came up with 23.1% for Gillard and 76.1% for Rudd. Although these polls are just simply opinions from unknown people, it makes me nervous that amount of people actually support Rudd

    Well those self selecting polls only produce anecdotal evidence of popularity.

    On the other hand, here is a transcript that shows the reporting of 3 different \”preferred Labor leader\” polls:
    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3438142.htm

    The results are as follows:

    Galaxy (January 2012): Rudd 52 Gillard 30
    Galaxy (late 2011): Rudd 62 Gillard 26
    Nielsen (early Feb 2012): Rudd 57 Gillard 35
    Newspoll (late September 2011): Rudd 57 Gillard 24

    The Labor caucus seriously run the risk on Monday of re-electing someone who is at least half as popular among voters as her challenger.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:41 pm

  5. Abbott/Credlin 2012

    by Gary Sparrow on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:41 pm

  6. Apple Blossom
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
    From answering the polls that are newspaper websites, it seems Gillard is very unpopular (or is that because the Australian attracts a certain target audience?). Anyway, when I did the poll (obviously voting for Gillard) it came up with 23.1% for Gillard and 76.1% for Rudd. Although these polls are just simply opinions from unknown people, it makes me nervous that amount of people actually support Rudd.

    Well, at least Gillard seems to have a strong support from other MPs, particularly the senior cabinet. I’m sure she’s much more pleasant to work with than Rudd.

    Bring on Monday, and good luck for Julia!

    Don’t worry too much Apple Blossom of of the other polls I saw had about 79000 “voters” running at about 94% for Rudd, some of the other smarter PBers than me I believe,the numbers can be cooked by changing “cookies” or , would have a better idea than me.

    by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:41 pm

  7. Confession, TP and TLM cheered Rudd’s removal?? Say it isnt so

    It is true.

    Next time you and Gary or dave are here together, ask either of them to drag out comments from both of them from the night of Rudd Removal.

    Everyone else was in shock at what was happening, but those two were openly cheering a Gillard govt.

    by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:41 pm

  8. Yep Rudd is farked once the world knows of his real nature.
    All coming out now, kind of feel sorry for him. Perhaps he needs help?

    by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:41 pm

  9. confessions, youve made exactly the same point as me. They tried to spare Rudd public embarrassment. But in doing so the voters did not get why he had to be removed

    by Andrew on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:42 pm

  10. Go on post a link to ONE poll that shows Gillard as preferred Labor leader compared to Rudd. Statistical ties don\’t count.

    As I said, the truth is out there – but you have to open your eyes first: http://au.nielsen.com/news/200512.shtml

    Check out ALP voters, 14-16 June.

    But I suppose you will dismisse this as a “statistical tie”?

    Exactly how many points would you like Gillard to be ahead? Is 7 percentage points not enough for you?

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:42 pm

  11. Just logged-on and scrolling thru today’s frivolity.

    Saw ratsak’s post at 1638. Good post, ehere he says this of the PM

    Up to 20 months still to go. Plenty of time to claim Rudd’s pelt and then set her sights on Abbott. She has the steel, and most importantly she has the policy and economic weapons to succeed. Underestimate our Prime Minister at your own peril.

    Amen to that.

    BTW ratsak, just to lighten things-up a bit, what’s the car in your gravatar?

    A valiant, perhaps?

    I had one many years ago (before I went through a wangker yuppie phase) and got seduced by Alfas, little Italian minxes that they are.

    It was a maroon Chrysler Regal with gold pin-striping, mag wheels and a white vinly roof. A real Wog-Boy special. The Fireball 318 cubic-inch V-8 under the bonnet purred like a kitten.

    Of course, the thing handled like a pig and her fuel consumption was horrendous ( I swear, you could actually see the fuel dial sink when you floored-it). But she sure sounded nice. Good pick-up, too.

    Plus, she came standard with factory-fitted make-out seating front and back. Perfect for a young lad on the prowl. Now (and I speak from experience) you can’t manage that in an Alfa without doing yourself an injury.

    All hail the Chrysler Regal.

    by smithe on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:42 pm

  12. rod

    tweeted u again

    Gusface @GenGusface
    Comparison, again, Howard was on -25 satisfaction in Oct 1997 / Keating was on -44 (24% satisfied, 68% dissatisfied) in July HT @Rod_Hagen

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:42 pm

  13. Greentard all huff and puff … Take a bex man and chill….

    I\’m very relaxed thank you very much.

    In fact, I\’m currently enjoying some cucumber sandwiches and a large glass of full cream milk.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:43 pm

  14. Gary Sparrow
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink
    Abbott/Credlin 2012

    Is that some sort of scoop or breaking news or what GS?

    by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:43 pm

  15. Point is Gillard can’t win the election.

    Rudd will save the furniture/narrowly win.

    That’s why he’ll score well with the back bench!

    by Gary Sparrow on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:44 pm

  16. Yep Rudd is farked once the world knows of his real nature.
    All coming out now, kind of feel sorry for him. Perhaps he needs help?

    If Rudd\’s real nature is so bad, why did Gillard appoint him to cabinet in one of the most senior positions of government?

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:44 pm

  17. Point is Gillard can’t win the election.

    Rudd will save the furniture/narrowly win.

    That’s why he’ll score well with the back bench!

    A 3.8% swing to Labor in QLD gets them 6 seats.

    Gillard has no hope of achieving that.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:45 pm

  18. I am becoming more convinced he won’t challenge:
    1. 77 of 103 have publicly committed and 17 are for him
    2. It is obvious that several of Labor’s brightest will not serve in his cabinet
    3. Even if he can form a cabinet he then must renegotiate an agreement with the cross-benches with at least 1 preferring a dissolution.
    4. He hasn’t got the guts for this sort of fight
    His resignation from the protection of cabinet solidarity has resulted in a sustained and successful assault on his character – he will not be able to reverse this on the back-bench.
    If he fails to fight now after all this disruption he won’t get a second chance.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:45 pm

  19. Yep Rudd is farked once the world knows of his real nature.

    But youre wrong, in fact nobody cares. The more they think pollies hate him, the more they like him.

    Its called anti-politics, and its gold. Any insider would kill for it.

    Keep whining about him – it only endears him to the populace.

    by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:45 pm

  20. Henry: Calling into question Rudd’s mental state again?
    Looking like you’re emulating your heroes Swan and Burke, the masters of personal denigration.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:47 pm

  21. 1. 77 of 103 have publicly committed and 17 are for him

    I only need three more to win! C’mon Kevin, you can do it buddy!

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:47 pm

  22. Rod:

    Thanks for that. Gillard’s recovery on that score was something Speers and Fool Gilbert tried to gloss over, but O’Shannesy had to play it straight and report honestly. Hence my picking it up.

    by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:48 pm

  23. Greentard – that’s better. Deep breath, deep breath …

    by Rossmore on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:48 pm

  24. lefty e

    Keep whining about him – it only endears him to the populace.

    just keep chanting that to yourself

    it will provide solace in the coming months

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:48 pm

  25. Bad news for David Bradbury: Channel 9 News visited Lindsay today, and just about everyone they interviewed wanted Rudd to win, not Julia.

    Channel 7 did the same. You can tell who they’d rather win, and not because Rudd is a better candidate. :P

    by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:49 pm

  26. of those 77 at least 15 will be saying they support gillard but will support rudd.

    by Gary Sparrow on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:49 pm

  27. And a 4% swing against Labor in Queensland wipes out Perrett, Darth, Emerson, Swan and Neumann.
    The only seat left for QLD Labor will be Griffith. :)

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:49 pm

  28. oscar

    kev will reach 23 pre ballot

    probably a bakers dozen if he fronts up

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:49 pm

  29. If Rudd\’s real nature is so bad, why did Gillard appoint him to cabinet in one of the most senior positions of government?

    to shut him up.
    I take it you don’t follow current affairs.
    /

    by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:49 pm

  30. so who will be in the new cabinet? PM Rudd, deputy Doug cameron? treaurer greg Combet, foreign minister stephen smith,

    by centaur009 on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:49 pm

  31. Check out ALP voters, 14-16 June.

    But I suppose you will dismisse this as a “statistical tie”?

    WELL DONE! This is the first piece of evidence you have cited all night. You are learning, this is good progress.

    Of course what you fail to do is mention that for all voters Rudd was more popular than Gillard in the same poll by just under a 2:1 ratio.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:49 pm

  32. And things are not getting better for Roo:

    Tony Blair’s wife to take action against Glenn Mulcaire and NI over the alleged hacking of her phone by News of the World

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/22/cherie-blair-news-international

    by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:50 pm

  33. The only seat left for QLD Labor will be Griffith. :)

    Only if Rudd runs.

    Clearly after Swan\’s performance last night he would be no great loss to the Labor cause.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:50 pm

  34. Regardless of the outcome of the challenge (or whether there even is one) from now on Gillard is going to have to sit at a cabinet table with several members who have said she shouldn’t be leader and who support Rudd. How can she trust them? How will cabinet avoid becoming even more dysfunctional? Is she in a strong enough position to sack them? I doubt it.

    And meanwhile Rudd will be on the backbench, sucking up to the other backbenchers, and every time Gillard blunders or a bad poll result comes out he will be whispering that there is another option…

    If Julia survives out the year as leader it will be an absolute miracle. At some point she will be tapped on the shoulder and told that she will need to stand down for someone else (probably not Rudd, but you can’t rule it out.)

    by Leisure Suit Larry on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:51 pm

  35. I wont need solace in the coming months Gus – I support the current minority parliament. A GIllard win is the best way to preserve it, for now.

    My solace will be seeing Rudd do well enough Monday that he can take over, if needed, in 2013, and defeat Abbott

    I put that number around 30. And frankly, I expect to be pretty happy about the result after Monday.

    by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:51 pm

  36. mari,
    yes, sad alright, we could take up a collection for his re-education…which reminds me.

    Finns, Boerwar and the Greed is Good with a Heart of Gold Consortium.

    I have patented the Wingnut Re-education Education and Culinary Arts Program. I have a proposal ready to go, we can make a killing re-educating the wayward offspring of lefty parents. As soon as their kids get tea-partied they will pay anything to save them.
    To be fair, I have also set up the Green Tree Frog Re-Education Education and Creative Accounting Program to save the wayward kids of the ruling elite, when they start growing organic vegetables and voting Green.

    I estimate the fees for this Green Tree Frog program to be 500% of the Wingnut therapy because Right Wing parents can’t abide organic vegetables.

    This is a time sensitive proposal, we have to hit them first, fast and hard.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:52 pm

  37. Greentard -

    If Rudd\’s real nature is so bad, why did Gillard appoint him to cabinet in one of the most senior positions of government?

    This has already been covered, and yet you ask the same question again and again and again.

    1st: being crap at leading the whole government doesn’t imply that you will be crap at a specific job. It is eminently possible to be a good FM and a crap PM.

    2nd: the transition from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd was done without assassinating Kevin Rudd’s character, and an attempt was made to avoid assassinating his character at the time. Not offering him a ministerial position wouldn’t make a lot of sense when you’re treating your ex-leader with respect.

    3rd: Julia Gillard, in minority government, was weakened in how much she could afford to hire and fire. The “botched reshuffle” was widely acknowledged to show that Julia Gillard was hamstrung by lack of numbers such that various ministers couldn’t be dropped that she wanted to drop. She didn’t have a choice but to give Kevin Rudd FA to keep him “happy” and busy.

    Also throw in “keep your friends close, but your enemies closer” etc etc.

    Do try to keep up.

    by Jackol on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:53 pm

  38. I am becoming more convinced he won’t challenge:
    1. 77 of 103 have publicly committed and 17 are for him

    That may well be not happen (as Michelle Grattan would say).

    Following it’s creation in the MSM super-collider the voracious Ruddlet seems to be failing. Instead of gaining mass and absorbing all around it, it appears to be shrinking.

    If it keeps diminishing at this rate it will have disappeared up its own arsk by Monday and be no more.

    That’ll send all the theoretical physicists here back to the drawing board.

    by smithe on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:53 pm

  39. lefty e

    u iz a funny bugger

    all will o wispy

    anyways u have ur chant to keep u happy

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:53 pm

  40. But youre wrong, in fact nobody cares. The more they think pollies hate him, the more they like him.

    Its called anti-politics, and its gold. Any insider would kill for it.

    Keep whining about him – it only endears him to the populace.

    This reminds me that its going to be interesting saying what criticisms he makes of Gillard tomorrow. Comparing their two press conferences today (http://www.kevinruddmp.com/2012/02/transcript-of-press-conference.html and http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/transcript-press-conference-adelaide-0), you can see that Gillard’s concerns about Rudd are more specific than Rudd chiefly just saying ‘I don’t think she’s popular’.

    by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:53 pm

  41. OC:

    Rudd has to challenge. He can’t squib this.

    The whole timing of this has been one of his choosing, and he’s milked it for all its worth, all but declaring he would challenge, hence his supporters coming out to back him.

    He can’t back out of this given the supporters who have put their necks on the line for him, ie M’arn, Bowen, Faulkner. Faulkner!!

    by confessions on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:54 pm

  42. Is Greed is Good with the Heart of Gold interested in a deal?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:54 pm

  43. Regardless of the outcome of the challenge (or whether there even is one) from now on Gillard is going to have to sit at a cabinet table with several members who have said she shouldn’t be leader and who support Rudd.

    Well not really. She can kick Ferguson and McClleland from cabinet and promote the Don Farrell, Mark Arbib, David Feeney factional hack types who after all are controlling her leadership and will end it later this year.

    All they are waiting on is to come up with a non-Gillard non-Rudd candidate, then she will be gone.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:55 pm

  44. sit at a cabinet table with several members who have said she shouldn’t be leader and who support Rudd

    get ur hand off it

    :(

    by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:55 pm

  45. Puff,

    Do you really think Finns, Boerwar and the Greed is Good with a Heart of Gold Consortium are ready to go inton business with a (gasp!) woman?

    by This little black duck on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:56 pm

  46. Is Craig Emerson’s fervent support of Gillard influenced at all by his past relationship with her? A thought to ponder.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:56 pm

  47. Of course what you fail to do is mention that for all voters Rudd was more popular than Gillard in the same poll by just under a 2:1 ratio.

    Oh yes, all those LNP voters just DYING to vote for the ALP if only they would put Kevin Rudd in the leadership.

    It’s still discredited Greentard no matter how often you pull it out.

    by Jackol on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:56 pm

  48. WELL DONE! This is the first piece of evidence you have cited all night. You are learning, this is good progress.

    Well, not quite – you just refused to read the other stuff. Not my problem.

    Of course what you fail to do is mention that for all voters Rudd was more popular than Gillard in the same poll by just under a 2:1 ratio.

    I didn’t “fail to mention” it – it’s in the link. I just assumed you were smart enough to understand that what Coalition voters think about who should lead the Labor party is about as relevant as what Labor voters think about who should lead the Coalition.

    Obviously, this one needs a bit more explaining.

    Any more changes you’d like to make in the ground rules before we move on?

    by Oscar on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:56 pm

  49. Another big day!

    The most to me interesting thing as a could be voter.

    I could have spent my day doing politics, but had to do life things.

    In my normal life, I would have expended time blogging, when all was calm.

    But it is not. Calm. Though I am getting there.

    If I were a person who had no particular interest in politics, would I spend a second of my time examining what the hell went on today?

    Doubt it.

    If I were a person who sits down at food time, watches commercial tv, has my prejudices confirmed. I am not, but believe me, that is their deal.

    I have so recently witnessed the whole awful thing.

    George Megalogenis captures it perfectly. Fidler, conversations.

    Wow!

    by crikey whitey on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:57 pm

  50. Correct analysis Lefty E everyone knows about his flaws and can relate. Just like his swearing going to strip clubs he understand the Australian psyche unlike Swan, Crean , Conroy. His polls will go even higher on Monday versus JG.
    Go Julia if you can just hang on we are looking at at least a 25 seat majority whenever the next election which btw will not be in 20 months as per prior posting.
    Tony Jones was excellent on lateline but old Stephen Smith covered himself just in case Rudd wins in ballot 1 or like Keating 2.

    by stanny on Feb 23, 2012 at 11:57 pm

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