Crikey



Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”

• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.

• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.

• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.

• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013, New Zealand politics

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  1. wow a car, what sort if I may ask.

    Chrysler Regal.

    by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:26 am

  2. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
    mari,
    yes, sad alright, we could take up a collection for his re-education…which reminds me.

    Finns, Boerwar and the Greed is Good with a Heart of Gold Consortium.

    I have patented the Wingnut Re-education Education and Culinary Arts Program. I have a proposal ready to go, we can make a killing re-educating the wayward offspring of lefty parents. As soon as their kids get tea-partied they will pay anything to save them.
    To be fair, I have also set up the Green Tree Frog Re-Education Education and Creative Accounting Program to save the wayward kids of the ruling elite, when they start growing organic vegetables and voting Green.

    I estimate the fees for this Green Tree Frog program to be 500% of the Wingnut therapy because Right Wing parents can’t abide organic vegetables.

    This is a time sensitive proposal, we have to hit them first, fast and hard

    Sorry took a while to come back to you was running over a cost analyst over your ideas, yes I think you have a goer with both ideas, strangely enough after hearing some of our late comer bloggers who have arrived in the last 24 hours, I think the first course may be the most rewarding for you financially, because surely the parents must be better than these sprogs and would be willing to pay handsomely to re-educate them. The second idea is brilliant but a little worried about it as “elite” parents are notoriously mean and may not hand over the loot.
    So count me in
    After all that mental work I think I am tired and will take myself off to bed

    by mari on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:26 am

  3. Greentard “evidence” -

    Let’s break this down one more time for those of us who are a bit … slow:

    Well the fact he is preferred Labor leader,

    Ok, so our whole conversation about the complete dodginess of preferred leader polls, which you haven’t been able to refute in any way shape or form … discredited until you can get back to me about how we judge the genuine vote changers in there.

    the fact he actually won a majority in an election,

    FIVE YEARS AGO in entirely different circumstances. That’s a firm reliable basis for judging his popularity now. Right.

    the fact that a bad Rudd poll was a statistical tie. The fact Gillard can\’t get the Labor primary vote out of the low 30s.

    Right, so again the facts (and at least these facts are credible!) that Kevin Rudd had better polls than Julia Gillard has had. I’ll grant you that, but what I won’t give you is that comparing what was going on 2 years ago against what is happening now is at all useful.

    The fact Tony Abbott is preferred PM in some recent polls. The fact Gillard has been behind 54/46 for the lats 4 months, and those are her GOOD polls!

    These are fine, accurate summations of the situation. Sadly for your argument, they are entirely irrelevant. Sure, Julia Gillard’s polling is bad now. No dispute there. That does not prove, in any way imaginable, that Kevin Rudd would do better now.

    That\’s the evidence I am going on.

    Oh. How disappointing for you.

    by Jackol on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:26 am

  4. Slackers 72.
    He was a cu**t.
    Everyone knew it.
    Get over it.

    by Henry on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:27 am

  5. Well I don’t know if George Meg etc book has been discussed on this site, and that it too time consuming, however this is clearly the book he was writing on his absence with leave last year.

    Listening to him on Fidler, amazing clarity, personal insight, political and situational.

    Got to get the book.

    This is my political life in running parallel to my lived life.

    I think he has not got to the recent years, definitely more in the making.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:27 am

  6. Greentard: oddly enough Swann went up in my estimation for his outburst.

    by Rossmore on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:27 am

  7. Gus

    the rudd assasination (yes i still call it that)

    Why are you calling it that, anyway? (unless you’re or someone else is planning on killing the man, which I strongly advise against doing). I’m sure the Gillard Victory sounds a bit nicer :P

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:28 am

  8. centaur

    good for u

    of course u know ur faction is 1/5 of the party?

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:28 am

  9. Greentard: oddly enough Swann went up in my estimation for his outburst.

    That means you are completely disinterested in the Labor brand and its historical legacy.

    Labor MPs should not trash former Labor Prime Ministers no matter what they feel about them. All it does is drag down the prestige of the Labor brand in the eye\’s of the public.

    Oh, and keep in mind that hardly anyone gives a crap what Wayne Swan thinks about anything anyway, so it will just endorse the view that Rudd is more popular amongst the public for particular reasons, i.e. he isn\’t a regular Labor MP who is told what to do by union and factional hacks.

    by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:29 am

  10. Night all. I love the smell of napalm in the morning.

    by Rossmore on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:31 am

  11. Greentard
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink
    Yes Tard – count that Julia 80, Kev 20 something.
    All over bar the shouting old girl.

    I\’m not a girl

    Thank God for that so my comment “it” is pretty accurate, because I am sure the “boy” people wouldn’t want you either. don’t get cramp there will you in those fingers

    by mari on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:32 am

  12. apple bee

    sorry darl

    I call it as i see it

    btw

    over time I have learnt to understand its necessity

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:32 am

  13. A Green tard lecturing labor voters. Fancy that!

    Oh dear Green delusion?

    by Henry on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:33 am

  14. Henry,
    So were the Romans.
    People won’t remember that. They’ll remember Rome.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:34 am

  15. gus do you think i’m in the SL?

    by centaur009 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:34 am

  16. further

    if kev had been left to contest the election, we would be dealing with a fib government

    he went to water

    and sold a few colleagues downstream

    to glorify kev is to mock the party

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:35 am

  17. centaur009
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 12:34 am | Permalink
    gus do you think i’m in the SL?

    Howdy centaur009:

    The numbers based on public declarations by members doesn’t seem to fit with your predictions from last night….has something changed in the last day or do you think the public figures are off?

    by Mod Lib on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:36 am

  18. Thank God for that so my comment “it” is pretty accurate, because I am sure the “boy” people wouldn’t want you either. don’t get cramp there will you in those fingers

    What a bizarre personal attack. You really must have no idea about the issues we are discussing if you have to revert to this nonsense.

    I am a 45 year old male. Either debate the issues or GTFO.

    by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:36 am

  19. Henry
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 12:33 am | Permalink
    A Green tard lecturing labor voters. Fancy that!

    Oh dear Green delusion?

    He’s not a Green, henry.

    by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:37 am

  20. @Greentard,

    Winning an election is one thing, but that means 4 years left to keep you’re voters and MP’s happy (And Media!).

    Obviously you don’t know how to play politics!

    by zoidlord on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:38 am

  21. centaur

    SL

    hmmm

    the silent lemurs (SL)

    we have had reports of rebel lemurs

    iz dis wot u speak of?

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:39 am

  22. further

    if kev had been left to contest the election, we would be dealing with a fib government

    But he had something Gillard has never had – legitimacy through incumbency – which is something he won in 2007,

    Half of Gillard\’s problems is that most voters just have no idea how or why she became PM in the first place because that was never explained properly, and then she kind of tied the 2010 election instead of winning it outright.

    Then add to that the carbon tax promise, and you can see why the polls are just stuck with Labor in the low 30s on the primary vote. You\’d think Labor needs at least 38% primary to have even a slight chance of winning the next election.

    by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:40 am

  23. am a 45 year old male. Either debate the issues or GTFO

    pls clarify

    u own a gtho?

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:41 am

  24. The lemur sits in his tree and sees all…hears all.

    I’m tempted to climb up there with him and watch to spectacle of the carnivores and bots battling it-out in the undergrowth from the next branch.

    by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:42 am

  25. Greentard is just weird…

    Oh and slackers…spare me the faux histography.

    by Henry on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:42 am

  26. I’m sticking to my numbers Mod lib, most of Left half of NSW R, and then some here and there. around the 40 mark.
    The way many ministers have conducted themselves is a disgrace.

    by centaur009 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:43 am

  27. Looks like its heavy rain in Brisbane for Kevvie’s return and based on all the news it may be the Gods crying for him. Question is will he run if the numbers are bad.

    by DavidWH on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:43 am

  28. u own a gtho?

    Only wannabes and ponces own GTHOs.

    Real class goes for a Chrysler Regal, every time.

    by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:43 am

  29. But he had something Gillard has never had – legitimacy through incumbency – which is something he won in 2007,

    TRUE

    Half of Gillard\’s problems is that most voters just have no idea how or why she became PM in the first place because that was never explained properly, and then she kind of tied the 2010 election instead of winning it outright.

    Untrue

    like kev, JG has had incumbency, she is the PM aamoi

    I dont understand ur line

    Rudd is the only one who can win?

    Why?

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:44 am

  30. Interesting perspective Slackboy77.

    Rudd’s problem seems less about what sort of boss he was than how he micromanaged everything into a standstill. Then, if, is as it appears, he was negotiating with the clubs lobby for the watering down or abandonment of pokies legislation at the same time that the PM was trying to get it passed, to keep an agreement with Wilkie on which the government’s survival depended, he is getting what he richly deserves.

    And I say that as someone who has maintained an healthy level of sympathy and goodwill towards the man, to the point of hoping there is still some other explanation.

    You have my complete sympathy with regard to staffing in government departments, as a former APS officer. The surplus has been held up as one of those phoney tests that are continually put to the Labor government and is now a Holy Grail for the msm and opposition. It is a cross lLabor and the APS will have to bear, and so too the gormless public who swallow the veracity of such ‘tests’.

    All I can say it the cross will turn into the scaffolding for a high rise building when Mr Abbott sacks 12,000 or more of your number to fund his $70bill black hole.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:45 am

  31. Centaur Rudd will barely get 20 votes.
    He’s gone.

    by Henry on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:45 am

  32. centaur009
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 12:43 am | Permalink
    I’m sticking to my numbers Mod lib, most of Left half of NSW R, and then some here and there. around the 40 mark.
    The way many ministers have conducted themselves is a disgrace.

    Ta. I concur ++ with the last statement.

    Interestinger and interestinger!

    Good night.

    by Mod Lib on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:45 am

  33. smithe

    ummm

    gtho is worth about a gazillion or 3 barnabys

    an ahem regal is worth a hockey kfc bucket

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:46 am

  34. Gus,

    further

    if kev had been left to contest the election, we would be dealing with a fib government

    he went to water

    and sold a few colleagues downstream

    to glorify kev is to mock the party

    It’s probably best to cross the bridge when we get there, because we still have until mid-late 2013 for the next election. Greentard did make at #2121, Gillard did not pull a huge victory at the last election in 2010. I think she has time to improve her primary vote scores between now and then. Fingers cross we don’t have to deal with a Liberal gov’t (or Fib gov’t if you want to call it that) from 2013.

    In the meantime, let’s just agree that our hopes are placed on Gillard for both Monday and between now and 2013.

    In the

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:47 am

  35. All I can say it the cross will turn into the scaffolding for a high rise building when Mr Abbott sacks 12,000 or more of your number to fund his $70bill black hole.

    Abbott won\’t sack public servants.

    This is a standard issue promise that all oppositions make. But then they get into government and realise that if you want to have any policies enacted, you actually need a knowledgeable public service to implement your ideas. If you sack a bunch of experienced public servants, then you run the risk of stupid mistakes by inexperienced newbies that ultimately ministers get blamed for.

    by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:47 am

  36. #2133, my keyboard was playing up, ignore the last line stating “In the”

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:48 am

  37. It’s probably best to cross the bridge when we get there, because we still have until mid-late 2013 for the next election. Greentard did make at #2121, Gillard did not pull a huge victory at the last election in 2010. I think she has time to improve her primary vote scores between now and then. Fingers cross we don’t have to deal with a Liberal gov’t (or Fib gov’t if you want to call it that) from 2013.

    Gillard won\’t improve her polling numbers outside of the margin of error.

    There is a significant part of the populace who just doesn\’t believe a single thing she says because of how she got the job and her silly carbon tax pledge.

    by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:49 am

  38. Mari,
    You are in. I am trying to get Finns Boerwar and the Greed is Good etc involved as with them we can go international. You are right though, the 1% are a tightfisted lot.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:49 am

  39. #2133, my keyboard was playing up, ignore the last line stating “In the”

    I\’ve been told that you can get new keyboards cheap at the supermarket.

    by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:50 am

  40. Oh Henry he had 30 votes last year. and he still has them and some more!

    by centaur009 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:50 am

  41. oh lemur, I am so disappointed that you would judge the value of something by what it costs. Are you a cynic, perchance?

    A Regal isn’t a car, it’s a statement: The classic Greek Rolls Royce of yesteryear.

    And a damn fine ride, too.

    by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:50 am

  42. Abbott won\’t sack public servants

    o u farqing wanker

    I just cant read anymore

    u is just spamming

    by gusface on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:50 am

  43. No Tard it is a rolled gold promise from the idiot Hockey.
    12,000 canberrans’ gone with a flick of the wrist.

    by Henry on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:52 am

  44. #2133, my keyboard was playing up, ignore the last line stating “In the”

    I\’ve been told that you can get new keyboards cheap at the supermarket.

    I think it may have been the touchpad not keyboard, I must’ve touched it while trying to edit a sentence and it played up. It does that sometimes if I’m not careful.

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:52 am

  45. No centaur he doesnt.
    let go…

    by Henry on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 am

  46. I think it may have been the touchpad not keyboard, I must’ve touched it while trying to edit a sentence and it played up. It does that sometimes if I’m not careful.

    Is it an Apple Macintosh?

    by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 am

  47. centaur009
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 12:50 am | Permalink
    Oh Henry he had 30 votes last year. and he still has them and some more!

    But will he have them on Monday? Will he even throw his hat in the ring on Monday?

    by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 am

  48. Goddam

    I already composed this message before it flashed away.

    Trying again.

    Chrysler indeed. Would that not be lovely.

    Am looking at a fully optioned Peugeot hatch.

    Incl I know, cooled glove box.

    2.1

    Low ks etc fully dealer serviced

    Just love the idea of it

    by crikey whitey on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 am

  49. In more utterly shocking news, the Daily Tele is spinning things in a pro-Rudd fashion: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/all-jobs-are-safe-kevin-rudd-promises-ministers-and-potential-enemies/story-e6freuy9-1226280026764

    Seriously, in the current climate I’d take the willingness of big media type outlets to want Rudd as a downside.

    by rishane on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 am

  50. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/rob-oakeshott-would-switch-allegiance-but-only-for-malcolm-turnbull/story-fn59niix-1226280004127

    Now were talking!!!!

    Oaky says he would consider supporting a Turnbull government.

    by Mod Lib on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 am

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