Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
Lyne Lady – Kev-07 campaigns as though he’s running for US president.
by CTar1 on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:19 am
Does anyone know what the routine is for the OO releasing Newspoll numbers? I thought I heard somewhere that the results are generally made available in confidence to party leaders in the afternoon several hours before the first posting on the internet.
I ask because I’m expecting this Newspoll to be horrific for Labor. I hope I’m wrong. As it is in News Limited interests to stir up trouble in Labor ranks I’m thinking that the OO will provide the numbers to the leaders as usual but that they also provide them to Rudd to give him time to use them to his advantage. After all if the numbers come out around midnight that leaves Rudd just 10 hours to use them. It’s better for him as a wrecker to receive them as soon as possible.
Just a thought.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:24 am
The Rick Santorum screening system.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/votesantorum2.jpg
And he is at odds with his own church doctrine.
http://crooksandliars.com/blue-texan/rick-santorum-opposes-catholic-church-t
The whole morality issue – that the GOP is fomenting – is biting them on the bum. They are simply mad.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/gop-debate-audience-boos-contraception
Here are the numbers on the total population’s thoughts on contraception.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/23/1067581/-More-people-approve-of-Obama-s-birth-control-policy-than-of-Obama-overall-according-to-poll?via=blog_1
by BK on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:24 am
Who’s Brad Newman? He’s the registered owner of http://www.ruddfactor.com, created in Sep 2010. “ALP Member #30426.” Ironically, the site describes itself as “Rudd Sub-Command – The online home for active supporters of Kevin Rudd” – of which “BRad” is the only contributor… Rudd staffer, or just a fanboi?
by Jaeger on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:25 am
And if that happens then Rudd might use them in public (interview) mid afternoon Sunday with the covert blessing of Chris Mitchell.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:26 am
Probably Evan
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:27 am
Or Greentard, who had clocked 120 posts yesterday by the time I turned in. I note still going at 2 am. Compared with zip posts in last week….a fly in praps?
by Kinkajou on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:32 am
Sloppy joe on sunrise complaining about how wrong unfair unaustralian the barbs directed against rudd
such a short memory joe, forgotten the 07 campaign already
by castle on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:34 am
The finnigans, have you seen this list
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/whos-backing-julia-gillard-and-whos-support-kevin-rudd-in-labor-showdown/story-fn7x8me2-1226278899646
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:37 am
OC @ 2358:
Gotta love the MSM and their weasel words: “HOW the numbers may fall”.
by Jaeger on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:40 am
OMG!
ABC24 brings in Uhlmann and Wonder Woman.
by BK on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:40 am
The Finnigans
So we may see Therese stepping out on a balcony some where in Canberra to sing “Don’t Cry for Me Australia” ?
by poroti on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:40 am
by sprocket_ on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:42 am
So many special interest groups lined against labor, mining lobby, oil coal energy lobby, tobacco lobby, gambling lobby, media etc funding quasi citizen groups supposedly representing real concerned citizens and constantly pushing labor bad
would Rudd resign and force a new election, he’s talked of it being a people’s campaign to elect him
Tone gets in,
NBN given to private enterprise rollouts only in mega profitable areas – media groups happy
carbon scheme scrapped – oil gas coal groups happy
MRRT scrapped – gina clive and twiggy, your little aussie battlers over the moon
plain packaging scrapped – tobacco happy
gambling trials scrapped – pokie manufacturers and hotel owners happy
health reforms scrapped – health funds happy, specialists look for new car leases and holidays
by castle on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:44 am
The Herald-Sun has Combet in the Rudd camp!
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:47 am
In fact, Greentard:
Is that you Kevin?
by Kinkajou on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:49 am
It’s an election speech.
by BK on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:50 am
But he is giving Abbott a good serve.
by BK on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:51 am
Oakeshott sounded like he’d be willing to switch to the coalition if they switch to Turnbull.
by triton on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:52 am
“People power”, “Faceless men” (his own MP colleagues). This is dreadful.
by triton on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:55 am
This is not going to go down well in caucus
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:57 am
morning all
BK
Who is giving an election speech?
by victoria on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:57 am
Latham can be cruel:
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 24, 2012 at 7:59 am
vic
Rudd.
by BK on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:01 am
Vic
Rudd is speaking at the airport
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:01 am
rudd presser on sky
Will made announcement on his future later today.
by dave on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:02 am
This ‘faceless men schtick’ is just unacceptable, coming from someone seeking Labor leadership. Of all the stupid things to say.
Regurgitating 50 year-old Tory slogans isn’t advancing Rudd’s case with caucus and when they put him down on Monday, it will be with a with damn good reason.
by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:02 am
I presume Rudd has arrive in Oz?
Has he been asked about which Labor policies he will ditch if he becomes leader?
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:02 am
Thanks guys
So the rat has returned
by victoria on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:02 am
is the rat going to challenge or not?
by victoria on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:03 am
He is still waffling all over the place.
by dave on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:05 am
Btw I saw the Gillard presser, thanks to Frank linking it at AFV. She was fabulous
by victoria on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:05 am
‘I have returned?’
He’s as big a prima donna as Macarthur ever was and just as disloyal to his leader.
by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:07 am
Don’t tell me Greenard has finally gone to rest his weary fingers and buy a new keyboard, I don’t think it is possible for one person to keep going like it did, so it is either an automated robot taught to type or some people from Menzies house ot Lib staffers taking it in turn to post under this strange name
by mari on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:08 am
Morning All
Great work on the list to those putting it together, sensational work
Surely he won’t even stand if he can’t get close to 30??? Should know by the end of today going on what Kevin has just said. Is it possible he will actually put the Labor party first instead of himself for a change???
Don’t get me wrong, Kevin07 was exactly the right person for the job at the time – he gave Howard nothing, campaigned brilliantly and won convincingly as a result. He did some great things in regards setting the policy scene for the future, delivering the Apology etc – it wasn’t all bad.
From there, he lost his way and is now well and truly off track – hearing and reading what he has been up to during and after the last election have seen me lose almost all respect for the man. An absolute disgrace. I am willing to forgive though – if Kevin does the right thing and pulls the plug on the challenge today and goes to the back bench to quietly serve out the rest of the term – I will regain some of that respect
If not, and if he continues to try and wreck this government – to me Kevin Rudd will forever be remembered as the man who put us in massive danger of having Tony Abbott as Prime Minister, that is unforgivable.
Please Kevin, for the good of the country – pull the plug on the challenge today.
by womble on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:09 am
Kinkajou,
“Greentard” is the commenter also known as ShowsOn.
by Cuppa on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:09 am
I can’t imagine how wavering MPs could have been impressed by that.
by triton on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:10 am
Well said womble, very similar to my thoughts.
by deflationite on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:14 am
Herald-sun has revised it’s list.
Now 44 – 26 with 28 undecided
However some in the undecided list came out for JG overnight
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:14 am
I reckon if Gillard promises R*dd he can have one headline a day he’ll be happy.
by Son of foro on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:17 am
Nice thought, but I think Hawker has convinced him he’s Keating.
by smithe on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:18 am
I think Rudd had to act now. In early May a Budget with a pretty good Surplus would be handed down—the result of a disciplined Cabinet.
In July the MRRT and ETS money starts flowing to pensioners, low income earners, superannuation accounts and coming off small business tax payments.
IOW, Gillard and Labor had bottomed and were on the way up.
With Kevin dealt with hopefully the govt gets some clear air to explain its policy.
by political animal on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:18 am
It was an interesting push from Rudd, that’s for sure. Can Gillard unilaterally agree to guaranteeing preselections or does it require further party processes?
by ltep on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:20 am
Rudd acts now to destroy the government before its policies are implemented and operating its standings improve and his own chances of leadership evaporate.
And whose interests does he have at heart?
by castle on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:22 am
Pre selection are decided by state branches. The leader of the party can try to influence but certainly can’t guarantee. Did Rudd say he would? I know he claimed to be upset that some of his supporters were likely to lose pre-selection but REALLY any MP who supports him is likely to face a backlash from their own branches.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:28 am
Grattan had a decent crack at those going in hard on Rudd and asking why they didn’t speak up earlier – she doesn’t seem to get that they tried to look after him out of some, as now revealed, totally false sense of loyalty. They tried to protect him after realising that they couldn’t keep him as PM, they gave him an ideal role that he has made a pretty good fist of and all they got in return was treachery and betrayal
No wonder they are having a red hot go I’d suggest
by womble on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:29 am
If Rudd does not run for the Leadership on Monday (which is looking increasingly likely) then his supporters can get their own tattoo of a chicken on a yellow flag.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:29 am
I don’t know what Grattan is on about again today. She contrasts statements made by ministers supporting Rudd while Rudd was PM with statements made in the last few days. Surprise, surprise, they are not always consistent. Wow. We would never have expected that. Just imagine: ministers putting the best spin on things and supporting their PM when they privately thought differently.
by triton on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:30 am
Talking head host on ABC24 has been pushing the “Labor stoush constitutes a sovereign risk to the economy” line for a few days. I wish he would stop.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:31 am
womble,
The reason Rudd will give for not running is to protect his dozens of supporters from retribution should he run and lose.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 24, 2012 at 8:31 am