Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match
The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics
rosa
I am just the messenger.
by lizzie on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Kindly give us all a way to have done that, with a hostile press playing both ends against the middle, after the leaking of Cabinet-confidential information to Oakes by Rudd or a supporter, with its ambush-like release in the first week of a campaign, plus another 18 months of white-anting after that, no all denied and with those denials publicised by the same journalists that Rudd leaked to in the first place?
If you can put all those pieces of the puzzle together without involving the press being duplicitous players, then you really ARE a genius, William.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:38 pm
The *Drama Queen* wants another 6 o’clock news *leading role* tonight.
But *His number is up* – surprisingly this was confirmed on ABV TV news at noon by Rudd’s biographer. The talk is everytime Rudd opens his mouth it just reminds caucus what he was like when leader.
Its now all just about how Rudd extricates himself from all of it.
Sad but long overdue.
by dave on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:40 pm
LIZZIE – Apologies
by rosa on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Gillard firming even more into $1.15
Rudd blown out to $5.25
by Diogenes on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Mendoza’s comments: http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/02/24/rudd-unfit-to-be-pm-ex-advisor-john-mendoza/
by rishane on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:40 pm
William seems pretty naive about the media, or is it just that it suits him and his political causes. All MSM journalists are owned in some way. The ones that choose not to be owned by those higher up, work for themselves – they will never be allowed to work for the MSM or the ABC in this country.
by sohar on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Coorey “Based on public comments by MPs and views of their colleagues.” has the count ay Gillard 65 Rudd 31 7 undecided.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-v-rudd–the-numbers-20120224-1trud.html#poll
by poroti on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Why is it good that he’s destroyed the Gillard govt? This sentiment only makes sense when viewed in the context of Rudd’s retribution, not better, more effective govt, or even reformed ALP.
by confessions on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Rosa
You forgot the secret internal private specially-commissioned marginal seat pollling from Arbib that was leaked to Andrew Bolt that said there the ALP were going to win the popular vote but lose dramatically in all the Lindsay’s across the nation.
The ALP were too clever to believe the 52:48 pollling. They knew better.
by bluegreen on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Not really. If he gets 30+, he lives to fight again.
by lefty e on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Hi bluegreen
I see your true colours have come out this week.
by victoria on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Bill Shorten has ruled out running as a candidate in this term of parliament, stating that talk of a third candidate is just a distraction.
by confessions on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Because Gillard can\’t win the next election. Most voters think she is a liar because of her carbon tax pledge.
Voters just don\’t care about anything she says anymore.
by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:45 pm
M Danby said that K Rudd “was no Joan of Arc”.
Agree. The Maid was said to have visions, and claimed divine guidance. I question KR’s motivation. Could it be divine vengeance?
by gigi on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:46 pm
DavidWH
Have you now taken up residence on planet rosa?
Seriously, it is bad for Labor’s image. That’s all.
The country is still being governed, very well indeed.
_____
As for the fourth estate
They do have a lot to answer for.
The political situation at the time Rudd was replaced was it was getting too close to an election to allow the necessary bloodletting. It’s not that difficult to understand.
That journos were not reporting what was going on, re the Rudd or Rudd supporter strategic leaks, is an indictment on their so-called profession. Quite simple.
by kezza2 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Thornleigh Labor Man
Comments from readers in The Age’s “And another thing…” today:
by triton on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:47 pm
There was never any doubt about the *soap powder* salesman.
by dave on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:48 pm
What this has done is given an inside run to Abbott and there are plenty of traditional Liberal voters who have concerns about Abbott being PM. Basically he has been allowed to get away with a very lean policy agenda and minimal scrunity. That’s not good for Australia either.
I may have to vote for Katter
by DavidWH on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Greentard,
It has been speculated that you are sock puppeting for Shows On.
Care to confirm or deny?
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Monday is of course not it. The manner in which the power brokers prosecuted a full on smear campaign on Rudd will echo for a long while yet, and not to their benefit.
Monday is just another step along the way. The battle against the mafia faction has only just begun again. Rudd wont be the only one in the party now determined to lift rocks to the sunlight.
I guess they now have a chance to attend some real cleansing, depending on Albo and Faulkner, and if they believe it can be done now. Or they may simply consider it an impossible task.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:49 pm
He is just a very naughty country girl.
by This little black duck on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:50 pm
So Rudd’s answer is to destroy the govt of which he’s been a senior minister? A govt which has been stable and has passed some important legislation, and which now looks self-indulgent, in turmoil, and unstable?
This is all about Rudd, not about the party and certainly not about better govt.
by confessions on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Greentard
Ridiculous. Recent polls have been 55/45 or 54/46. Not that unusual for a government and hardly irretrievable. And there’s 18 months to go. Anything can happen in that time.
by triton on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:51 pm
triton,
Jon Faine was being criticised this morning for not reading out any pro Rudd SMS messages etc. He said it was because there were none.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 pm
How so?
Are trying the “if you don’t support Julia Gillard, you support Tony Abbott” leap of logic?
I guess that puts Albanese, Pollytics and Chris Bowen in the TOny Abbott column.
by bluegreen on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Just received an email from a country ALP branch (non factional) expressing 100% support for Gillard & urging other branches to pass similar motions.
by zoomster on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Kezza it’s bad for the country because now its almost certain Abbott will get elected on a policy platform of winding everything back rather than on a platform of properly scrutinized policies. The last week has been a ongoing commedy of self indulgent stupidity.
by DavidWH on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:53 pm
What time is Rudd\’s press conference?
by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:54 pm
I would agree that the middle ground have stopped listening. I certainly stopped listening more than a year ago. Everything she says just sounds like it was written by the same committee that came up with the “moving forward” soundbyte.
by slackboy72 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:54 pm
It’s now 2:30 Sydney Time (1:30 Brisbane time)
by ShiftyPhil on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:55 pm
R*dd will be holding his fourth press conference at 2pm. Quite possibly to announce he’ll be holding his fifth press conference at 3pm.
by Son of foro on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Gigi – I think twitter is calling it divine ‘Kevenge’.
by BH on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:55 pm
I do agree with that. But there it is. Once 2010 happened, the saga was going to have to play itself out. The big unresolved questions (destined never to be answered) are whether 2010 was necessary in the first place, and what might have happened if nothing was done in 2010. There was tension within the party, that much is apparent. It couldn’t have been left to fester. And we still have the thorny question of the role of factionalism within the party.
The odd thing about it all is (and this is just the way I’m viewing things) that the policy work carries on regardless. Internal bickering doesn’t appear to be hampering that side of it. Other things are, but in the areas of framing good policy and guiding it through parliament, the ALP are functioning smoothly. They’re not putting things off or going off in weird directions.
by Aguirre on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Instead of TP’s suggestion of the AEC maybe they should get Joe and Andrew to help.
by CTar1 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:56 pm
and Rosa has just shown where she stands
I hope she enjoys a RAbbott government.
Its what she deserves
by Mick Collins on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:57 pm
DavidWH
What it has also done is make the Libs shit-scared to replace Abbott.
(They already know what a bout of leadership change speculation does.)
Hey, and that can only be good for Labor
btw, I’m not picking on you, you’re just making comments about stuff I’m interested in.
by kezza2 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:57 pm
This is just anecdotal evidence.
The empirical evidence in the form of the last Galaxy, Newspoll and Nielson polls that have asked the question all show that Rudd is the electorate\’s preferred Labor leader.
by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:57 pm
I haven’t had a chance to keep up with the comments here so forgive me if I drag up stuff that’s already been discussed.
i just wanted to say that I found Rudd’s blathering about trust extemely offensive. Does a man who tried to destroy a government by ruining an election campaign and by doing sneaky deals with journalists really expect me to trust him? I found his request for voters to do his dirty work for him by lobbying MPs to support him vomiut-inducing.
How any self-respecting MP could support such a weasel is beyond me. Watching Mr Weasel this morning made me furious. My TV set was in the same sort of danger that Nicola Roxon’s would have been in when she heard Kevvie’s lies about her management of the health portfolio.
by leone on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:57 pm
bluegreen
Because you previously gave an impression that you were all for policy susbstance and not fluff. There are countless people in a position to know, who have come out and said Rudd is all fluff. Yet you support a return to him. As I said, your true colours have been exposed. Dont have anything else to say.
by victoria on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:58 pm
great article from global mail
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-faceless-men-and-women-of-the-polls/83/
by Lyne Lady on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:58 pm
William I disagree with you @2694. While politics is all about duplicity, journalism should not be.
I see the media is now talking up how “we are now only getting the truth from the government when all else fails” line. Think this was Annab C’s line on ABC I have just read.
Are you suggesting that if Rudd and others spoke to journalists – for months it seems now – that somehow they are just innocent by-standers in all this. Especially as they have not actually put any of this in anything that I read, apart from an oblique reference from Barry Cassidy
In actual fact, the media in general are truth harlots. They will cooperate or not cooperate if this is or is not a story in in for them.
As a generality, the media and many who work for them, are as duplicitous as the politicians.
As a West Australian, I ask you why Andrew Probyn’s piece the West this morning has turned up now?
He has been aware of the goings-on for months but barely any of this has been in his articles though hinted at.
So, I give you back the line some journalists are using – “Now the truth can come out” .
As a quick reference – here are Probyn’s opening lines which I am sure you have read:
“No one does victimhood like Kevin Rudd. Forget he is the bloke who calls the Prime Minister “the bitch” or worse, behind her back, to senior figures in industry and to news paper editors and to members of the Press Gallery.
“Forget the fact that he’s lying when he denies briefing journalists a fortnight ago about a two-step challenge to Julia Gillard”
My question is, if Probyn and others was/have been aware of this for months (you too?) why were these “truths” not part of the media narrative?
So, to all appearances, the media has been well and truly part of the game. I accept this as part of the dirty game they play but please do me a favour and don’t come out and make as though they are just disinterested observers.
Your line of “Surely the onus was on Labor not (to) have backed themselves into this corner in the first place” should have the addition such like “Surely, regardless of their own feelings or agendas, the media have the responsibility to put the facts on the table, not some tweaked version to suit which ever vested interest that are serving.
No wonder we are cynical about the press and your absolving of the media of any complicity in this smacks of the “don’t blame the media” line beloved of all journalists.
by Tricot on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Yes I agree.
Really this is a proxy battle Rudd V the Labor Establishment.
The establishment couldn\’t careless that they are trying to get Gillard re-elected because they know she will be gone before the next election. They are just using this battle for tactical reasons in an attempt to better position themselves for the NEXT leadership contest.
by Greentard on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:59 pm
He should have made some up for balance and allowed for the chance of Abbott also standing on Monday.
by joe2 on Feb 24, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Richo seems to be on the money, saying Rudd can’t govern and Gillard can’t win. Labor’s between a rock and a hard place.
Gillard’s prosaic and practical but a creature of the factional bosses. Rudd is brilliant but disfunctional, with egomaniacal tendencies.
Smith and Plibersek showed Swan and Crean how to make a point without being abusive and counterproductive.
Driving Rudd out of parliament might be emotionally satisfying for some but would make Abbott prime minister before the Labor reforms have a chance to be bedded down.
Rudd is quite likely to quit anyway. He might even renominate for Griffith as an independent. Who, then, would Labor preference in a by-electio?
by Toorak Toff on Feb 24, 2012 at 1:02 pm
True, and it only takes FIVE people in one HUNDRED to change their minds and they have eighteen months to do it!.
For mid term polls, they ain’t that bad!.
by 1934pc on Feb 24, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Why stop at the AEC? We might need to get the UN to come in to supervise the leadership ballot to ensure there are no human rights violations against poor Kevin.
by ltep on Feb 24, 2012 at 1:06 pm
TT
You asked this question before. Why would Rudd go indie. His dream is to be PM again. If Rudd resigned and there was a bi election, Beattie or Bligh could run in that seat
by victoria on Feb 24, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Surely Rudd has to run, he can’t squib a second ballot?
by confessions on Feb 24, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Warning: don’t ever rile dave. (Hasty checking of past posts). LOL!
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 24, 2012 at 1:08 pm