Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.

Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.

Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).

Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).

Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).

Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).

Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).

Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).

Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).

Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).

If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).

• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, New Zealand politics

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The caucus are again ignoring the wishes of the Australian people – fools!

So government decisions should be determined using on-line polls? Fool.

by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:25 pm
THORNLEIGH – Shorten supporting Rudd “via twitter”. Is he serious?

by rosa on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink
Another marginal seat MP supporting Rudd:
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/02/23/3437525.htm
You told us this morning Eva some of my relations living in her electorate aren’t impressed by this

by mari on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Hawker may have run out of stuff on Newman.

by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:27 pm
This is the fight the ALP had to have. But it should have happened much earlier.

by Dee on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Tony Burke on Kevin Rudd

It became chaotic, the chaos, the undermining, the temperament that started to develop, the micro-management where no one other than the prime minister could make a decision

I fell around the floor laughing.

Burke on the Hawke Review (that Garret had preapred for cabinet)

''We're committed to responding, and that commitment hasn't changed,'' he said. ''I've wanted to look over the recommendations with a fresh set of eyes … and I won't be able to declare particular reforms that we're taking up until we have developed a government position

http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/national/national/general/burke-cans-garretts-work-to-start-anew/2029932.aspx

Burke on the MDB

Federal Water Minister Tony Burke says another delay to the release of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan was not his decision.

After already being delayed several times, the draft was expected to be released this month but is now being pushed back to about mid-October.

Mr Burke says he will reintroduce more water buybacks to cope with the delay.

"I'll be talking to the department today about working out how quickly we can get back into the buyback," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-04/burke-distances-himself-from-basin-plan-delay/2824150

Tony Burke on Koalas

However, environment minister Tony Burke says he needs 10 more weeks to consider new information from the Threatened Species Scientific Committee (TSSC) on where the marsupial is under the greatest threat. It's the second time he's delayed the decision, which was initially due in October.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/16/world/asia/koala-australia-endangered/?hpt=wo_t4

Tony Burke on the pulp mill

ENVIRONMENT Minister Tony Burke has delayed a key decision on Gunns's Tasmanian pulp mill that was due today.

Mr Burke was scheduled to make a decision on the environmental impact management plan submitted by Gunns for its proposed pulp mill.

But the minister said he was pushing back the March 3 deadline until March 10, after representatives from Gunns made contact with him yesterday.

Mr Burke said his department needed time to consider the new proposals from Gunns and to allow the Independent Expert Group, which is advising the government on the mill, to examine the changes.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/business-old/tony-burke-delays-mills-decision-gunns-works-on-tougher-controls/story-e6frg98x-1226015377702

The man is the most indecisive Environment Minister in modern history.

by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:28 pm
gus

Give me a red haired bitch over EPP any day.

by Dan Gulberry on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:28 pm
the australian people are listening the red haired bitch

Gussie, do we still burn bitches?

by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:29 pm
and whilst the ALP tears itself to shreds, Bob Brown focuses on the central issues..Including Tony Abbott’s unsuitability for leadership..

Meanwhile, Abbott is in full election mode….. You can see how he thinks the lodge is in his grasp…oh sorry…Kirribilli house…

This really is a mess..

I really really hope that the ALP can hang on until the NBN, and carbon legislation are permanently and irrevocably implemented.

by liyana on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Bill Shorten @billshortenmp
Top performance by the PM this morning, never been more proud of our leader. Looking forward to Monday.
12:30 PM - 23 Feb 12

by Leroy on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:30 pm
dan

+1

by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:30 pm
confessions@473

Therese Rein has inspired me to ring Labor MPs and tell them I’d prefer they supported Gillard.

protip: there are far more people that’ll vote for the ALP with rudd as leader than those that won’t

by p m z on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:30 pm
finns

i think evan wishes we did

by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:30 pm
TLM
Actually, this has nothing to do with the Australian people. It is to do with the people who have paid their dues to be members of the ALP. The rest, which includes me, are merely spectators.

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Kevin Rudd’s problem was that he thought he was a President when he was a Prime Minister and an ALP one at that.

Exactly. And a lot of people have trouble with that difference.

by rishane on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Chris Bowen fails in implementing the desired asylum seeker policy and doesn’t have the courage to declare his preferred leader – to the backbench !

by Rex Douglas on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Very impressive performance by the PM in her presser earlier.
Particularly liked the way she declared she has no problem with any journo revealing details of any private conversations she may have had with them over the last couple of years.

Wonder if Rudd could do the same…

by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Gussie, i miss Horsey.

by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Barrie Cassidy also suggested on 774 this morning that Stephen Smith might be the one to come up the middle. Interesting in light of the Canberra Times slagging off that William links to at the front of the thread.

Crean might have been too aggro in the last few days to come up the middle, but on the other hand it may be just what is needed.

I used to think that Tony Burke might be a future leadership contender – not sure now – but we both noted when he was on the telly last night that he might have had speech therapy for his lisp – it was not as pronounced as previously. Has he been getting a makeover?

by blackburnpseph on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:33 pm
30 is about 27%. Keating got 40%. Rudd is no Keating. It is not enough.

Gillard is no Hawke and in reality is already terminal. This would be understood by most.

The battle is on for Gillard’s eventual replacement.

The big problem Labor have, is that on historical polling Rudd is the only candidate likely to give them any chance of victory, and would certainly save the most furniture.

But like I have said, and born out by the over the top character assassinations of Rudd today, this is all about the right wing power factions fighting to keep their power. Rudd is the enemy to their power.

by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Puff, that’s the problem. Because the ALP are the government, it does involve the Australian people.They should have handled all this a long long time ago.

I hate to say this, but I think the federal parliamentary ALP need to take lessons from Frank, in terms of staying loyal no matter what and keeping family squabbles behind doors…

I thought that was what party discipline was all about..That’s why I never joined the ALP, because I don’t have that discipline.

by liyana on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Bill Shorten @billshortenmp
Top performance by the PM this morning, never been more proud of our leader. Looking forward to Monday.
12:30 PM - 23 Feb 12

There’s a reply to that tweet (suitably edited to comply with PB’s language standards)

journo_realdeal @journo_realdeal
@billshortenmp Why don't you f---ing socialist clowns just p--- off Bill? You're going to get trounced in 2013 anyway. You know it. #auspol

by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:36 pm
finns

we all do

by gusface on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Thomas I think Rudd is finished and the only question remaining is how he deals with it. The severity of the attacks on Rudd means he could do anything.

by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:38 pm
I can’t actually think of a decision that Burke has made on time. I know in private he is constantly blaming the department.

A poor tradesman always blames his tools.

by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:39 pm
The #rudereporter from The Australian gets a write up in the Herald, and it’s a rave review.

by Bushfire Bill on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Finns

I challenged you to a $500 bet that Gillard would be Labor leader at the Fed election.

Diog, i dont take money from a baby. i dont want to starve your kids.

I thought as much. You are wimping out of betting on Gillard.

by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:40 pm
If Gillard survives this leadership ballot it just delays the inevitable.

Gillard won\’t be Labor leader during the next election campaign.

by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Thomas I think Rudd is finished and the only question remaining is how he deals with it. The severity of the attacks on Rudd means he could do anything.

Well they may have well gone beyond the pale which gives Rudd public support/licence to do more than he normally could have.

by Thomas Paine on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Has Gai Brodtmann said who she supports?

by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:43 pm
ABC 24 reporting Rudd has been sounding out for months that bastion of the working man, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry

by Burgey on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Interesting comments by John Quiggin on his blog.

Rudd + Gillard = Rudd*

A couple of points that have emerged in the debate over the Labor leadership need a response

First, there’s the claim that there are no policy differences between Rudd and Gillard. This is often presented as if the two had independently arrived at the same position. In fact, as the equation in the post title implies, it’s because Gillard is a policy-free zone. Her independent ventures into policy making amount to a disastrous set of pre-election moves on carbon policy (no tax promise, consultative assembly, cash for clunkers) and a series of failed attempts to resolve the asylum seeker problem. Now that the Rudd agenda has mostly been passed or abandoned, Gillard has no policies whatsoever, a point I made some time ago. Her abandonment of the Gonski report, which she used as an excuse for doing nothing when she was Education Minister, is typical.

Second, and with somewhat more justification, there’s the fact that Gillard has been successful in getting policy passed where Rudd failed. The unusual circumstance of a House of Reps minority has led most people to overstate the relative difficulty of Gillard’s task. She has needed the Greens and three of five independents, normally being Wilkie, Oakeshott and Windsor. Rudd needed the Greens, Xenophon and Fielding, which was obviously harder. It’s true that Rudd made the mistaken choice of freezing out the Greens and trying to negotiate with the Liberals, which made no sense given that the Greens were bound to hold the balance of power sooner or later. A more comparable test is that of asylum seekers, where Gillard has done no better than Rudd, arguably worse.

*This equation was allegedly written by a notable, but somewhat obscure economist with his own name in the place of Rudd, and that of a better-known researcher in the same filed in the place of Gillard

Harsh realities for many on this blog who have simply lost all connection with reality. Gillard is a policy free zone.

by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Well they may have well gone beyond the pale which gives Rudd public support/licence to do more than he normally could have.

Nothing he does from here on could be worse than deliberately undermining the election campaign.

by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Burgey @ 726

ABC 24 reporting Rudd has been sounding out for months that bastion of the working man, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry

Wow!!! So Rudd actually talks to groups in society with which he would have to deal as PM. What a revolutionary idea.

He might even talk to Clubs Australia with a view to calming them down and reducing their hostility to the poker machine reforms a Rudd government will push on with.

by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Gillard is a policy free zone.

You can say what you like but JG will still be PM come noon on Monday. Will you still be trying to tear her down or will you get behind her leadership for the good of the party?

by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Wow!!! So Rudd actually talks to groups in society with which he would have to deal as PM.

But he was a happy little vegemite as Foreign Affairs Minister and had no intention of becoming PM again. Whoops, gotta zip!

by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Tom Hawkins @ 728

Nothing he does from here on could be worse than deliberately undermining the election campaign.

An allegation that Laurie Oakes has denied.

It is something of an alibi for the poor performance which was largely caused by an abysmal campaign and Gillard’s own goals.

Continually repeating stuff like that does not make it true.

by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:50 pm
I thought as much. You are wimping out of betting on Gillard.

Diog, one step at a time. Let bet on Monday first.

Then, I will take you on after Monday. what about it?

by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Finns

I bet Gillard on Monday.

by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Tom Hawkins @ 730

You can say what you like but JG will still be PM come noon on Monday. Will you still be trying to tear her down or will you get behind her leadership for the good of the party?

I support the ALP whoever the leader is, but will not change my views as to who would be the best leader at present.

I also don’t have a vote or even influence in Caucus so it is a fairly pointless question.

by bemused on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:53 pm
729 – Lol, settle down Bemused. He might want to talk to those groups in his capacity as a member of the cabinet, not as part of a campaign to become Prime Minister again. You know, like other ministers have done in bedding down the mining tax and the like.

You’re happy enough to call out others on their support of the PM as being nothing other than looking through rose-coloured glasses, yet you try to paint what is blatant disloyalty on the part of Rudd in sounding out business groups about a return to the leadership as simply “talking to groups in society”, all while he denied making a move.

Stones, glass houses and all that.

by Burgey on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:54 pm
An allegation that Laurie Oakes has denied.

I wouldn’t expect a member of the gallery to lie straight in bed.
Do you remember how suspicion as to the leaker’s identity even turned to Lindsay Tanner? A good Labor man who had just resigned parliament to get on with the rest of his life is then for a short time dragged into the sordid affair. It wouldn’t surprise me that Rudd or his supporters put Tanner’s name into the mix to distract attention from his own grubby behaviour. That’s what we are dealing with.

by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Richard Marles for Gillard.

by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Rudd truly is a disgrace sucking up to Clubs Australia to ditch the pokies stuff. There is no reason for them to confirm it if it isn’t true.

by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:56 pm
I also don’t have a vote or even influence in Caucus so it is a fairly pointless question.

I’m simply interested to know if you will continue your Gillard bashing or whether you’ll get behind the leader.

by Tom Hawkins on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:57 pm
The #rudereporter from The Australian gets a write up in the Herald, and it’s a rave review.

Link?

by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:57 pm
He might even talk to Clubs Australia with a view to calming them down and reducing their hostility to the poker machine reforms a Rudd government will push on with.

Hahahaha – yeah I’m sure he’s real committed to poker-machine reform – I mean he only told clubs which marginal seats to target with their campaign.

many on this blog who have simply lost all connection with reality

Says exhibit A

by Think Big on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Labor are going to look like a bunch of jerks when Newspoll shows that voters prefer Rudd as Labor leader.

by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Latika Bourke @latikambourke Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Labor MP Richard Marles ‘I do support Julia Gillard.’ Describes her tenure as heroic. #respill

by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Martin Ferguson to hold press conference at 2.30 pm AEDT. I presume he’ll announce he’s backing Rudd?

by ltep on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm

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