Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.

Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.

Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).

Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).

Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).

Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).

Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).

Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).

Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).

Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).

If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).

• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.

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1. Brian Mc, if you can remember exactly what you did, plug it into the box here and post the result (use Preview to check what you’ll get when posted).
   http://www.plus2net.com/html_tutorial/tags-page.php

   Then we can all see what you did.

   by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:02 pm

2. Why can’t right wingers do comedy?

   by Son of foro on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:04 pm

3. How can Rudd have a “deep belief” that Gillard can’t win an election 18 months away knowing how quickly things can change for any number of reasons?

   by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:04 pm

4. This isn’t doing much for Labor’s chances, despite it being what Bligh and Beattie asked for.

   Labor are paying $9 to win in Qld. That’s even more than NSW from memory.

   Labor was never going to win in Qld no matter what they did.

   by Gary on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:04 pm

5. Gary

   Labor was never going to win in Qld no matter what they did.

   True. That begs the question why Bligh and Beattie urged for this to happen.

   by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm

6. That begs the question why Bligh and Beattie urged for this to happen.

   So they can blame the defeat on others?

   by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:07 pm

7. confessions @812 – It’s a good read and topical!

   by CTar1 on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:08 pm

8. It will be fascinating to see all the polls coming out on the weekend. Cant really tell how much effect recent events have had, but you would think it couldn’t be positive.

   So polls wont be any better than they have been except for MOE movement. There is an off chance that they could have tanked by a few more points giving 57/43 Sunday.

   Wonder how marginal seat holders in that swing range will be feeling as they vote for a PM they know will be gone at some stage.

   Then there will be the personal ratings of each and against each other.
   Hard to know what if any messages the public have taken home from current events, what they have been seeing and reading. So maybe not much change.

   But will be interesting if on Sunday Labor’s primary and TPP really does dive and Gillard’s personal ratings, and Rudd’s rise putting him even further ahead.

   What’s a marginal seat holder to do. Dilema. And their promises today to vote one way may not be what they intend, or could suddenly change on the day.

   Chances are I think just a small negative movement in the polls. Which are already bad in any case.

   an ode to thomas paine:
   Oh the paine the paine the paine
   Rudds gone, he aint comming again
   The PM‘s a woman, the shame the shame
   Oh the paine the paine the paine

   by Mick Collins on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:08 pm

9. Son of foro
   Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink
   Why can’t right wingers do comedy?

   Who are the right wingers?

   by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:08 pm

10. Foro I think how a person reacts to commedy is often a result of who the joke is on.

    by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm

11. LYNCHPIN – No, please, I’m serious: point out to me a verified first-hand fact. Just one!

    by rosa on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm

12. Gillard needs to take some of the blame for the bad polls.

    So does that lying Abbott, continually saying thia is a BAD government when it is NOT!. it only takes FIVE people in one HUNDRED to change their mind and it’s even Steven.

    Get over it!, just goes to show it is not that difficult to turn things around!.

    by 1934pc on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm

13. How can Rudd have a “deep belief” that Gillard can’t win an election 18 months away knowing how quickly things can change for any number of reasons?

    HE asked Anthony Ball from clubs australia?

    by Henry on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:10 pm

14. http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3845564.html

    23 FEBRUARY 2012
    Rudd and the media: playing them like a Wii
    Tim Dunlop

    Whatever happens with the Labor leadership over the next few days -- and who knows what state it will be in by the time you read this -- it has not only made us think about politics, it has made us think about the way politics is reported. In so doing, it has confirmed a giant truism of modern democracy: our understanding of politics cannot be separated from our understanding of how the media report politics.

    To illustrate that point, let's look at three pieces of journalism that inadvertently lift the lid on the way journalists and politicians accidentally on purpose conspire to misinform us.

    Brilliant article

    by Leroy on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:11 pm

15. Bowen and Roxon both making sensible comments telling certain colleagues to STFU and keep it in their pants at this time.

    by lefty e on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm

16. bg

    That begs the question why Bligh and Beattie urged for this to happen.

    So they can blame the defeat on others?

    That’s what I thought. Nothing like a scapegoat when things are turning to shit.

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm

17. @pollytics

    The Gillard cmap is acting as ugly as it gets - scorched earth on their own caucus and cabinet members

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:14 pm

18. Those who throw mud lose ground.

    by Toorak Toff on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:15 pm

19. Rosa

    Michael Gawenda is a former editor of the Age. He is of course being very careful for obvious reasons (eg defamation). To me, this is very clear.

    Are there journalists who have been briefed by Rudd and his supporters, for months now and perhaps even going back to 2010, about Rudd's long-term strategy to win back the prime ministership?

    Are there journalists - and for that matter newspaper editors and television and radio senior executives - who have been briefed by Rudd and his supporters over the past six months or more, about Rudd's so-called 'campaign of destabilisation'?

    Did he viciously disparage Gillard? Did he viciously disparage the Government of which he was a senior member? Did his supporters do all that? Did Rudd tell journalists that he would eventually challenge for the leadership when the time was right - and when that time might be?

    It seems to me that on the evidence publicly available and the evidence of gossip amongst journalists, the answer to all these questions is: yes.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:15 pm

20. EG: Left wing Ben Elton gave us Blackadder. Right wing Ben Elton gave us some pile of dirt on Channel 9.

    EG: T*m W*ilson whenever he tries to be funny on The Drum.

    EG: ‘Greentard’ is most definitely not in any way a funny word.

    Just saying.

    Carry on.

    by Son of foro on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:17 pm

21. Who said this?

    Bludgers your naivete on this leadership issue truly amazes me. Some of you still think that because an MP makes some generic “The Prime Minister has my full support” statement that it actually means something.

    Some of you have slipped back into the fantasy land of thinking the whole thing is a media plot. Others of you think it is over. It is best to think of what is happening now as the proverbial swan on the water – above the surface everything appears calm and serene, but underneath the feet are kicking madly.

    There is a lot happening, wheels within wheels, plots within plots. It is not anywhere near as simple as “Julia has X voted and Kevin has Y votes”. They may say that Julia has sixty-odd votes and it may be true … until suddenly she doesn’t. Things can happen (and are happening) extremely fast.

    My read of the situation is still that Gillard is stuffed, and its just a matter of time until the ALP comes to that same conclusion and then decides whether to bring back Kevin or go for a fresh face.

    Gee, all those twits & TV appearances supporting PM Gillard are just mirage

    by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:17 pm

22. I guess Gillard’s going to have to demote Martin Ferguson – not a great look when a senior cabinet minister doesn ‘t have confidence in your ability to lead the party.

    Thomas Paine: The polls are obviously irrelevant to the Labor caucus – Newspoll could show that Rudd has a better chance of winning the next election for Labor, yet they’ll still opt for Gillard.
    Reality check for the Gillardites here: banishing Rudd to the backbench and putting a muzzle on him for the next 18 months ain’t going to win Julia the next election.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:17 pm

23. Son of Foro

    One of the writers of Yes Prime Minister was Thatcher’s speechwriter.

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:18 pm

24. One of the writers of Yes Prime Minister was Thatcher’s speechwriter.

    I think it would be more accurate to say he wrote speeches for Thatcher. The other of the two writers was/is a Labour supporter.

    by William Bowe on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:20 pm

25. @donato

    @pollytics How can you see Rudd leading Labor to election victory, w/ senior ministers publicly roasting him 2day?

    @pollytics

    @donato89 Because senior ministers are a half dozen votes from 14 million, and those 14 millions know that politics is shit

    @donato

    @Pollytics They would have to resign as ministers. So Rudd goes to election w/ new ministry, while they sook on backbench? Will this work?

    @pollytics

    @donato89 Maybe - some might stay. Either way, there's probably 18 months until an election - plenty of time to blood a new cabinet

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:21 pm

26. I still laugh at all this special.

    I think Rudd has never made anything sort of commitment to be PM again, it’s just the Media, Coalition.

    Because they Coalition knows that they can beat the crap out of him, just like he did before Julia replaced him.

    Now I’m not taking sides like some of you do here, but this is my view.

    Rudd is happy to be Foreign Minister, but the speculation just kills his job.

    by zoidlord on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:22 pm

27. TLM

    banishing Rudd to the backbench and putting a muzzle on him for the next 18 months ain’t going to win Julia the next election.

    Nor is choosing a leader the MPs mostly hate and can’t work with and is likely to provoke an exodus from cabinet.

    by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:22 pm

28. More recently Costello had a good sense of humour. Too few politicians of any ilk have the ability to use humour rather than sarcasim.

    by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:22 pm

29. Is the leadership ballot a secret ballot?

    by Diogenes on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:22 pm

30. Oh dear, long lost smokin’ gun:

    Latika Bourke @latikambourke Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    Martin Ferguson 16/12/11: '..And contrary to media speculation, the Prime Minister has my support.' #respill

    by The Finnigans on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:23 pm

31. DavidWH, Costello used plenty of sarcasm in QT.

    by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:25 pm

32. First, thank you William for pointing out the error of my italic posting.

    Triton, William has nailed it down @ 841.

    Then PB @ 842

    The problem with your examples is that you end up with an ordinary member being about 5 layers of ‘representation’ away from the actual decisions that affect the party.

    But that is what happens with any large organisation. What chance has an “ordinary” Catholic got of getting his/her ideas on say, the need for women clergy in that organization, up into the decision making realms at Rome. But they can make a lot of noise at the local level (but, if too much, can get themselves shown the door).

    So it is in the ALP. At Branch level we don’t have an “equal” voice with others further up the organisational structure. But we can try and occasionally can get our ideas, if enough of us agree, to go forward. At our Branch before the last federal election we were able to say, no, no, no to a planned intervention on whom the candidate for that election would be and get the Feds to backtrack and hand us back our preselection rights.

    by Brian Mc on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:25 pm

33. zoidlord,

    That just flies in the face of the facts.

    by Space Kidette on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:25 pm

34. I’m hearing Gillard this morning for the first time, and she’s indeed sounding very impressive – provided you’re sufficiently well versed with the facts to know that she is actually telling the truth. The problem for her though is that most of the public who hear her will simply assume that she isn’t.

    by William Bowe on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:25 pm

35. Yes, a secret ballot, but everyone seems to know who voted for whom at the end of them anyway.

    by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:26 pm

36. That\’s the reason Gillard won\’t be the leader at the next election. Most voters think she is a complete liar and don\’t trust anything she says or does.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:27 pm

37. EG: R*dd has NEVER been funny, despite forever cracking himself up.

    DavidWH: Too true.

    by Son of foro on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:27 pm

38. LYNCHPIN – I repeat again: please identify the FACT in that article.

    by rosa on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:28 pm

39. Finns

    How many Gillard quotes are out there about “more likely to replace Barry Hall as Full Forward”?

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:29 pm

40. 1934pc
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    Always a good politcal strategy to call the public stupid.

    Sorry, ill informed, believe all they read or see, or are unwilling to analyze what the hell is going on!.

    Andrew Elder had the best description for it: polling when the public is essentially disengaged is simply media noise reaction. And since media noise is almost 100% ‘Gillard Fail’ (on the Cabinet Reshuffle FFS) the reaction is not surprising.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:29 pm

41. provided you’re sufficiently well versed with the facts to know that she is actually telling the truth

    Take a bow MSM.

    All journos should do Gawenda 101.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:30 pm

42. Yea gods, the Oz trying to pretend they have standards.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/journalist-apologises-to-prime-minister/story-fnccyr6m-1226279523118

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:30 pm

43. William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink
    I’m hearing Gillard this morning for the first time, and she’s indeed sounding very impressive.

    As I said earlier. The best performances on Australian Idol were always the ones by contestants who had just been booted out. This was always followed by the judges saying “if only you had sung like that during the last eight weeks”.

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:30 pm

44. Andrew Elder had the best description for it: polling when the public is essentially disengaged is simply media noise reaction. And since media noise is almost 100% ‘Gillard Fail’ (on the Cabinet Reshuffle FFS) the reaction is not surprising.

    This makes no sense.

    If you shouldn\’t do opinion polls due to public disengagement with politics, then the only time you could do a poll would be about 48 hours before a general election.

    Polls measure public opinion including the standard level of disengagement.

    by Greentard on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:32 pm

45. Triton agree Costello mixed both wit and sarcasm. However too often these days we just get the sarcasm without the wit. Gillard was good during the FWA debate with the mousepads etc but she seems to have lost that lately.

    by DavidWH on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:32 pm

46. My god we have two crazies wanting to take us ovet

    Never been so scarec

    Poor fellow my county

    by my say on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm

47. DavidWH

    Gillard was good during the FWA debate with the mousepads etc but she seems to have lost that lately.

    Those were the days.

    by triton on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:34 pm

48. The problem for her though is that most of the public who hear her will simply assume that she isn’t.

    Just shows how dumb the public is, who first starting calling her a liar?.

    by 1934pc on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:34 pm

49. Yea gods, the Oz trying to pretend they have standards.

    Ninemsn simply though him ‘persistent’.

    by Son of foro on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:35 pm

50. In this case, Possum is right and Elder is wrong.

    by bluegreen on Feb 23, 2012 at 3:35 pm