Queensland election minus four weeks
Around the grounds:
Ashgrove (Labor 7.1%): Yet another ReachTel automated phone poll for Ashgrove was conducted on February 9 from a sample of 616, and it showed Campbell Newman with a narrower lead than in any of the previous five: 49 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote, which panned out to an implausibly narrow 51-49 on ReachTel’s dubious two-party preferred measure. The Greens continue to hover around 6 per cent in this poll series, which is much lower than seems credible in this seat. In other Ashgrove news, the LNP is complaining that a “community group” to back Kate Jones under the banner “Locals for Locals” was set up by Labor to help it evade the $50,000 spending cap on promoting individual candidates which is coming into force at this election.
South Brisbane (Labor 15.0%): ReachTel also targeted the Premier’s electorate with a poll canvassing 339 respondents on January 23, and it found Anna Bligh leading the LNP 35 per cent to 34 per cent, which would pan out to a very comfortable win for her after distribution of preferences from the Greens, who were on 22 per cent.
Ferny Grove (Labor 4.5%): The most recent ReachTel poll canvassed 370 respondents in this seat on February 17, and together with past results it seems to suggest a pattern of ReachTel being roughly plausible in inner suburban seats like the two noted previously, but producing fantastically bad results for Labor further out in the suburbs. This poll had Labor incumbent Geoff Wilson trailing LNP challenger Dale Shuttleworth 63 per cent to 23 per cent on the primary vote. This was the first ReachTel poll which didn’t come with a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result, which presumably had something to do with Antony Green’s blog post on the matter a week earlier.
Mount Ommaney (Labor 4.8%): Following a very late retirement announcement from Labor member Julie Attwood, the party’s new candidate is Ben Marczyk, an organiser with Together Queensland.
Stretton (Labor 9.5%) and Sunnybank (Labor 10.8%): Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that retiring Labor MPs Stephen Robertson and Judy Spence failed to attend the opening of their successor candidates’ electorate office. Robertson has reportedly “fallen out with branch members after the party preselected unionist Duncan Pegg over his preferred candidate, David Forde” (who is running as an independent), and “courted controversy late last year by attending a fundraising function for Mr Forde”.
Broadwater (Labor 2.0%): The ABC reports that Ron Clarke, the 75-year-old Gold Coast mayor, says he will decide over the weekend whether he will run as an independent against Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft.
Southern Downs (LNP 21.1%): Peter Watson, Labor’s 19-year-old candidate for this unwinnable rural seat, has been disendorsed and expelled from the party over comments he left on web forums at the age of 15 and 16, in which he supported the White Australia Policy and said homosexuals were “degenerates” who should be “wiped out” from society. Anna Bligh argued, rather implausibly, that Watson had infiltrated the party in order to embarrass it. However, his father Dudley Watson is a long-standing party member and former president of his local branch, and resigned his membership in response to Bligh’s comments. Labor is using Watson’s expulsion to claim higher standards than the LNP, which is continuing to endorse Gavin King in Cairns despite his colourful record as a newspaper columnist. This follows the LNP using Richard Towson’s withdrawal in Broadwater over a drink-driving offence to plead higher standards than Labor, which continues to endorse Algester MP Karen Struthers despite her own drink driving conviction in 2007. Labor’s dumping of Watson has called attention to the party’s large retinue of wet-behind-the-ears candidates: 18-year-old Ben Parker, who lives on the Gold Coast, in Gympie; 20-year-old Oscar Schlamowitz in Indooroopilly; 20-year-old Jack O’Brien in Gregory; and 19-year-old Rachel Patterson in Mermaid Beach.
Lytton (Labor 12.2%): Meanwhile, the LNP’s 23-year-old candidate for Lytton, Neil Symes, has attracted attention over comments he made on Facebook describing asylum seekers as “terrorists and queue jumpers”.
Also:
• Bernard Keane of Crikey observes that spending caps which are taking effect at this election arrive just in time for Labor’s loss of its spending advantage over the LNP, whose coffers have been engorged by donors courting favour with the expected victor.
• The registration of political parties which will take effect at the election has been finalised and it doesn’t include the Australian Sex Party, who were unable to prove they had the requisite 500 members. All that leaves is Labor, the LNP, the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party, One Nation, Family First and Daylight Saving for South East Queensland.
And in world news; excitingly the early election in Saarland may be on the same weekend.
I tried to join but they insisted I had to be a taker not a giver
Sue Lappeman @sueGCB
The LNP has this afternoon endorsed Ms Verity Barton, resident of Coombabah & Chairperson of Broadwater SEC as new candidate for Broadwater.
Sue Lappeman @sueGCB
The LNP has disendorsed the candidate for the seat of Broadwater, Cameron Caldwell
Michael Fleming @thatfleminggent
404 Candidate Not Found lnp.org.au/cameron-caldwe… #qldpol #qldvotes
Must be Friday afternoon the LNP is clearing out the dead:
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/poll-call-february-24-20120224-1trfh.html#ixzz1nHPWhPbO
I don’t fully get the Liberal objection on spending. Unlike the NSW law, there is no explicit rule preventing a party spending what it likes nursing a marginal, provided it doesn’t blow its statewide total cap (worth $80k x # of seats contested). The only explicit limit is on the amount a candidate’s agent can spend.
As unfair as this rule is for independents, LNP and ALP are free to target and sandbag marginals. I inquired of this months ago and the ECQ already had Crown law advice on this. Aside from the policy problem, the LNP’s proper objection, if this group is not really independent, should be about front groups/misleading conduct.
William, I’m interested in your reasoning about the robo polls. I’ve read Antony’s objections; and follow them insofar as OPV ain’t compulsory preferences: ie Reachtel’s two question looks a French runoff system but with the flaw of not assessing likelihood of turnout on the second ballot.
A potential problem is in name recognition: in a first pref list of five or six candidates some harried respondents may exhibit a Newman bias given his high profile. At ballot boxes with photos of Jones in hand that is evened up a little. In the robo poll, it is evened up somewhat when an ‘ALP’s Jones’ vs ‘LNP’s Newman’ question is given.
I’ve been cold called twice by ReachTel’s robot. The problem I see is less in questions
asked than in the system. At first you wonder if this is a genuine poll, a party poll or a prelude to dodgy marketing. The other problem is it is rapid fire: merciless for those not nimble in response or dextrous with key pads.
All that said I expect Newman to win with a modest margin. Then as a newbie Premier with a heavy load and a steep education in parl politics before him, to regret/recriminate at how the party could not find him a safer seat. He could perpetually feel like Howard in 04 or worse 07.
Not Campbell Newman @Can_do_Campbell
Maybe the ex LNP candidate for Broadbeach should have joined the @aussexparty where “swinging” would be a bonus on the resume…
Day 6 of the campaign summary here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw7pR2udkcI&feature=youtu.be
Cheersquad getting testy:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-campaign-keeps-qld-poll-in-background-20120225-1tv90.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Queensland_Online&utm_content=news&utm_source=RoamMedia
Cameron Caldwell @Cam_M_Caldwell
36 days since my last tweet… 30 hours since I was dis-endorsed by the Lnp. The political world awaits my next tweet.. GO THE REDS!!
28m Marsha Graham Marsha Graham @marshagoldcoast
@Cam_M_Caldwell Sorry to hear your news y’day. Ridiculous party standard. There r much more important things in life and politics IMHO
Cameron Caldwell Cameron Caldwell @Cam_M_Caldwell
@marshagoldcoast thanks, the support for me today might make everyone re-think. Politicians are representative of people, not above them.
Retweeted by Col Smith
Wilderness Society gets temper flashing from Ashgove Candidate:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/anna-bligh-launches-take-two-of-hijacked-run-for-premier-in-queensland-election/story-fnbt5t29-1226281486210
Queensland election Day 7 twitter files.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUoelQImnOA&feature=youtu.be
Candidate for Ashgrove met with the Christian lobby this afternoon and has ignited a flame war on twitter.
Not Campbell Newman @Can_do_Campbell
RT “@sleemol: Two steps forward and 40 years back. If ur outraged by @Campbell_Newman’s pledge to scrap civil unions, shout it from the roof
Brisbane people can agitate, educate and organise themselves by helping the oldest and best fm community radio station to get a much needed new transmitter:
http://www.4zzzfm.org.au/transmissionignition
Day 8 of the Queensland election Twitterfiles:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGh7ERPX1K4&feature=youtu.be
Col Smith @Dangerman_2
Citycyle: Now with added head lice and no under 17s. #qldpol bit.ly/xbm2aj #NewmanFail
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/liability-fears-rule-out-young-riders-for-brisbanes-citycycle-scheme/story-e6freoof-1226282057926
Full list of Queensland election candidates:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2012/candidates.html
Know this Queensland @Know_This_QLD
Qld State Election – First name on ballot: 25% ALP; 20% LNP, 20% GREENS; 19% OTHER; 16% KAP (from all 89 electorates). #qldpol #qldvotes
A list of Queensland premiers since the Queensland labor manifesto of 9 Sep 1892 and the first Labor Government of Dawson and still the tories want to bleat about 13 years since borbidge.
Queensland Premiers
Period served Premier
13/09/2007–present Anna Maria Bligh
26/06/1998–13/09/2007 Peter Beattie
20/02/1996–26/06/1998 Robert Borbidge
02/12/1989–20/02/1996 Wayne Goss
22/09/1989–02/12/1989 Russell Cooper
01/12/1987–22/09/1989 Michael Ahern
08/08/1968–01/12/1987 Sir Johannes Bjelke-Petersen
01/08/1968–08/08/1968 Gordon William Wesley Chalk
17/01/1968–01/08/1968 Jack Charles Allen Pizzey
12/08/1957–17/01/1968 George Francis Reuben Nicklin
17/01/1952–12/08/1957 Vincent Clair Gair
07/03/1946–17/01/1952 Edward Michael Hanlon
16/09/1942–07/03/1946 Frank Arthur Cooper
17/06/1932–16/09/1942 William Forgan Smith
21/05/1929–17/06/1932 Arthur Edward Moore
22/10/1925–21/05/1929 William McCormack
26/02/1925–22/10/1925 William Neal Gillies
22/10/1919–26/02/1925 Edward Granville Theodore
01/06/1915–22/10/1919 Thomas Joseph Ryan
07/02/1911–01/06/1915 Digby Frank Denman
18/02/1908–07/02/1911 William Kidston
19/11/1907–18/02/1908 Robert Philp
19/01/1906–19/11/1907 William Kidston
17/09/1903–19/01/1906 Arthur Morgan
07/12/1899–17/09/1903 Robert Philp
01/12/1899–07/12/1899 Anderson Dawson
Ron Clarke, the former Olympian distance runner who won a bronze medal at the 1964 Olympics and current but soon to be retiring Mayor of Gold Coast City Council will contest the electorate of Broadwater as an independent.
With the decline of labor in Queensland, and the shenanigans of the LNP candidates in Broadwater, Cr Clarke IMO will have a great chance to win the seat
Looks like the Queensland Chamber of Commerce is trying to be a political player again. They turned up at Kevin Rudd’s home on the weekend and shown on TV news footage over the weekend. A couple of elections back they embarrassed themselves during a campaign.
Patrick Lion @patricklion
Why was the pres of the QLD Chamber of Commerce pretending to be an insulation installer dumping the batts on Rudd’s driveway? #auspol
Retweeted by Not Campbell Newman
Since August 1957 the Liberal or National Party has ruled Queensland for 34 years and 8 months under Premiers:
Borbidge
Cooper
Ahern
Bjelke-Petersen
Chalk
Pizzey
Nicklin
Labor has ruled Queensland since August 1957 for 19 years and 9 months under premiers:
Bligh
Beattie
Goss
Summary of candidate profiles:
http://m.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/from-18-to-83–queenslands-candidates-line-up-20120227-1tyt7.html
Unbelievable! Was anybody hurt? Anybody arrested? Any substance to this at all? Is the LNP up to it’s old tricks in Mulgrave?
http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2012/02/27/207701_stateelection.html
Toowoomba North shenanigans:
http://www.thechronicle.com.au/story/2012/02/28/dirty-politics-creep-into-city-campaigns/
Michael Crutcher @MJCrutcher
The Courier-Mail will no longer travel on the leaders’ buses during the state election campaign. Time for a better debate. Details tomorrow.
LNP funding black hole of which even Joe hockey would be proud:
http://www.queenslandlabor.org/wp-content/uploads/FUNDING-BLACK-HOLE-ON-POLICE-NUMBERS.pdf
Cameron Atfield @CameronAtfield
Don’t worry, folks. @brisbanetimes will still be reporting from both on and off the bus! #multitasking
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/elections/newman-donation-before-towers-passed/story-fnbsqt8f-1226284461308?sv=f2a021e564c6ffbdff6e9481f4c761e2
[Mr Lawlor said Mr Newman has "explicitly signalled" to Cr Clarke that he could expect a position on the Board of the Organising Committee if he withdraws from his intention to run as a candidate in Broadwater.Mr Newman on Friday told The Bulletin: "I do not wish to be in any way presumptuous but someone of his
stature, his track record in sports and administration, is someone who would be, how can I put it, someone we would be prepared to consider (for the Commonwealth Games board) as a government."
Mr Lawlor said he had no doubt that Mr Newman was telling Mr Clarke through the pages of the Gold Coast Bulletin that he would get a job under a Newman government if he does not run.
"This is an incredible public inducement not to run for office," Mr Lawlor said.
"No one can pretend Mr Newman doesn't know what he is doing when he makes these comments, prefaced by "...how can I put it...".
"It's clear there is a public negotiation going on!"
An LNP source in the same report had told The Bulletin: "It's pretty clear what [Ron Clarke]‘s up to. He is trying to shore up his retirement gig on the Commonwealth Games board”.]
http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2012/02/26/394501_gold-coast-queensland-state-election.html
ReachTEL @ReachTEL
We’ll be updating our Ashgrove poll on Monday night – results available Tuesday. Past results: goo.gl/S9fpr #qldvotes #qldpol
All aboard the Courier Fail:
http://onlythedepthvaries.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/all-aboard-courier-fail.html?spref=tw
The LNP web:
http://www.campbellsweb.com.au/
Digital 31 Brisbane Community Television – Meet the Ministers. A series of interviews with major players on both sides of Queensland politics.
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL0E26D0B18D329AA6
Australian politics TV:
http://australianpoliticstv.org/2012/02/29/queensland-votes-police-disability-funding-and-campbells-web/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AustralianPoliticsTv+%28Australian+Politics+TV%29
LNP @LNPQLD
· Open
RT @bradtupper: Free train travel today hey? No such thing as ‘free’ travel, up goes some other tax to pay for it! #qldvotes #laborfail
Col Smith Col Smith @Dangerman_2
· Close
@LNPQLD @bradtupper so what does that say about LNP promise of free travel after 9 trips? Thank for exposing LNP con job #qldpol #qldvotes
Another day; another Newman backflip:
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/bigticket-rail-project-ready-to-proceed-20120229-1u3c0.html#ixzz1nomT3tGW
The only newspaper covering every step of the Queensland election and the only one to hide their content behind a paywall to ensure nobody will ever read it. Smart business decision or another Murdoch fail?
http://twitter.com/#!/GeorgiaWaters/status/174959436497039360/photo/1
Claims of another $20 000 of dodgy Campbell dealing in today’s Australian on top of the $50 000 they dug up yesterday.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-01/more-allegations-raised-about-newmans-campaign-fund/3861442
AMAQ has found an LNP bandaid.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-01/lnp-health-policy-a-band-aid-solution-amaq/3861564?section=qld
Confusion as to which fund has the funny cash being poured into it but it turns out to be the Lord Mayor’s Reelection Fund:
Mike G Chambers @mikegchambers
· Open
@ABCnews @Can_do_Campbell abc.net.au/news/2012-02-2… Newmans ‘re-election’ fund? I think that’s ‘restoration’ fund. That’s quite a typo. #NoCanDo
Not Campbell Newman Not Campbell Newman @Can_do_Campbell
Close
@mikegchambers @abcnews two different funds. One is the city hall restoration fund, the other is in fact the LM’s re-election fund.
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3h Mike G Chambers Mike G Chambers @mikegchambers
· Open
@Can_do_Campbell @abcnews Wow ok, my bad. Wait, no, Newmans bad.
I wonder which of the following stories will gain more traction out here in the real world where trying to make ends meet and stay healthy is more important than which party has the best political spin machine?
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/campbell-newman-must-explain-donations-by-developer-into-re-election-fund-says-anna-bligh/story-fnbt5t29-1226285856377
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/anna-bligh-lied-about-short-elective-surgery-waiting-lists-says-ama/story-fnbwrnwn-1226286107320
Hmmm, well DavidWH interesting question you pose.
In article one, the probable next premier has dodgy developer links while he tries to fob off any scrunity; or article two, where pre-election the Doctors Union lobbies for more funding.
Most concerning is how Clive Palmer, the team owner of the LNP, is getting more litigious and obnoxious as the campaign drags on. When Campbell and Clive have a falling out it’s going to be spectacular clash of egos!
Dave it is an interesting question and I guess 24th March will give us the answer.
Ex Springborg staffer coming back from a glorious stint in the West to reek more havoc in Queensland:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13053697/probe-of-barnetts-office-ordered/
Shareholder Newman?
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/newman-in-breach-of-rules-fraser-20120301-1u46u.html
Debates in this campaign are going to be as rare as hen’s teeth, Newman Inc. don’t want scrutiny.
http://www.queenslandlabor.org/2012/03/01/newman-debate-duck-and-cover/
Woolworths just happened to release half yearly results today:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120301/pdf/424r36dk5ncyg4.pdf
Stirling Resources has had a tough year and are struggling badly:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120127/pdf/423z8tm1z88m1k.pdf