Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)
We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.
Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
dio
Ummm
sorta counter productive really
i mean what BIG ideas should JG go with?
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Modlib
Have it every way …
by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:24 pm
mick
actually for all your bile and bluster
u aint crossed the rubicon of good taste
billie has
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:24 pm
I don’t think this interview with Jason Clare was linked earlier: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-25/destabilisation-could-put-labor-in-cold-for/3852436
by rishane on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:25 pm
G
It is very hard for political organisations to deal with sociopaths. I suspect that the Liberals are starting to understand that they have a somewhat similar problem.
by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Sorry for double post but both my personalities agree on this one!
by Mick Wilkinson on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:26 pm
William – If you have seen the posts above – do you regard *Shows On* posting as
*Greentard* as sock puppet ?
by dave on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Jackol
I pretty well agree with everything you wrote but my point was that the public sees themselves as owners of K Rudd PM (2007 – …) and they will never take kindly to the way he was ousted, be it proper Westminster system or not, particularly given how it was done and how badly it’s been handled and spun ever since. Too late for regrets!
by Mick77 on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:27 pm
That ab did a good job re floods but health dept. issues along with the its time qld rail privatisation stuff will do her in.
Although if 1 Clive palmer keeps shooting his big mouth off things may change.
And. Can do may not even win a seat as KJ is popular and a bit of resentment as how they think he is a shoe in
by Joe6pack on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:28 pm
b
way back u started with the rudd is bad meme
alot of uz thought u were just being a prick
now i understand u were showing uz who was the prick
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:28 pm
It is as if he is running in the Republican primaries in that the U.S. Presidential Election is on this year. The Australian Federal Election is 18 months away so a public popularity contest is meaningless in trying to put pressure on his colleagues at this point in time. If we were 6 months out then it may have some effect but not now.
by Scarpat on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Think as you wish, basically Kevie had to move now or never the polls moved to labor and then got stuck over Christmas, in a position that is not ahead but is winnable for labor. Two more points labor will be ahead, then the fun really start.
by fredn on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Haha Trying to pressure her because the people who vote, whose democracy it is, whom you are supposed to be working for…..support you more than her.
I think it is a little bit relevant to the leadership vote.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:29 pm
dave
gtard aint shows
capiche?
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:29 pm
I love Albo but his words today will be used by the Oppn endlessly. He really didn’t need to go into that much explanation. It might have helped him but it has not, in the end, helped Labor.
by BH on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:30 pm
He had to move now because of the idiocy of Crean and Gillard as well.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:30 pm
not 18 months out from the election.
by Scarpat on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Then it is only one other person.
capiche ?
by dave on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:31 pm
People can change their monica as much as they like, I mean they are anonymous anyway.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Gus – If the ISP is not SA it is Qld.
capiche ?
by dave on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:32 pm
ALP dire in QLD if that’s what Joe is suggesting. No NSW bloodbath though. My sources on both sides tight lipped on this one but some in safe seat LNP are ‘picking furniture’ already.
I know Dale Shuttleworth well and he will cane in Ferny Grove the guy is a tiger campaigner, William, that poll is likely no aberration.
I’m not sure that Cameron Dick is as troubled as the Courier Mail makes out. He hits hard in his electorate in Greenslopes.
by Mick Wilkinson on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:32 pm
bh
sorry
albo was talking to all true believers
i actually had a little sniffle after his speech
he is what labor is
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:33 pm
BW @ 1310
Mr Emerson may ask lots of questions!
by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Will Rudd losing on Monday help, hinder or make no difference to the outcome in Qld in their election?
by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Joe6pk,
Thanks for that. Here on the GC the State Election is being covered but pretty low key. The council elections seem to be getting more coverage and is the one generating discussion.
Seems odd to a former long term NSW resident (though been here six years).
by Space Kidette on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Thomas Paine, this is a leadership ballot for caucus, not an election campaign.
The fact that he’s appealing to the people looks silly and smacks of desperation. Ads on facebook? Walking through shopping malls? For a leadership ballot?!
Oh, and I thought it was pretty funny when someone on twitter referred to the Rudd family as ‘The Ruddashians’… it’s all so bloody bizarre.
by vitalise on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Question for the banana benders on here.
by Scarpat on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:36 pm
BH – Labor will use the Reilly/Abbott ‘interview’ footage endlessly in campaign ads. Nothing, nothing will save Abbott from that.
by Dr John on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:36 pm
dio
kev has poisoned the well in Qld
i now expect a fib minority, as opposed to an alp minority
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:37 pm
ALP dire in QLD if that’s what Joe is suggesting. No NSW bloodbath though
yep but you know qld politics it really could go either way at the end.
I think the last election the cm was predicting a easy win to the libs but they somehow imploded.
by Joe6pack on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:37 pm
And their votes – or stay with previous votes ?
by dave on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Scarpat,
I’m not getting enough feedback to know.
by Space Kidette on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Tom Paine no, I don’t think anyone has changed their ‘monica’ (chandler is, as far as I know, bonking her) but Shows On should have learnt about appropriate handles by now after me calling him ‘Slow Son’ for so long…. It was SO fitting though.
So to go to ‘Greenturd’ is just begging to be be whipped… And would adequately describe the quality of Slow Son’s reparte….WAAAAY too obvious.. So no, I think it is some other dimwit.
by Mick Wilkinson on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Personally I think everyone should have STFU.
It is a secret ballot and all every member had to say, when approached by the media, is “no comment” or, better still, used it as an opportunity to give Tony Abbott a spray.
But it goes to show the depth of feeling is towards Rudd that people were prepared to risk damage to the Party in order to knock the halo off his smarmy head.
Any Party where senior members hate each other that much was always going to struggle through a process like this.
by Danny Lewis on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:38 pm
as is here on the sunny coast
by Joe6pack on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:38 pm
[ albo was talking to all true believers
i actually had a little sniffle after his speech
he is what labor is ] Yes but clearly has indirectly backed the traitorous enemy
by Dr John on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Just noticed Kristina Keneally’s new twitter avi – https://twitter.com/#!/KKeneally
Awww, nice.
by vitalise on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:40 pm
space K
I am still awaiting joe to repost his original Q
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:40 pm
OMG, don’t do that to me Gus…if you are predicting a Liberal win we must be in dire straits
by Mod Lib on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:40 pm
mod
up until the kevorgasm
I was happy to predict bobkat to split the fib/gnat vote
now kev has pissed on the fire
its all fib/gnat
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Hey Gus… After Julia’s contortions with the truth and public backflips of the ALP about their own leader’s abilities (or lack thereof), I suggest that the ‘Fibs’ ought to be joined by the ‘ALP’, of standing for Arseholes and Lying Politicians….
by Mick Wilkinson on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:44 pm
I am not sure that the Liberal Party leader will be Tony Abbott at election time. They are going to have to reverse their position of repealing all and sundry. They cannot finance the policies (I use that word advisedly) that they proposing. They are going to be taking money out of voters’ hip-pockets (compensation for Carbon Pricing) which is not exactly a vote-winner. Abbott is not the person to sell all the U-turns that they are going to have to make. And they are going to have to come up with a semblance, at least, of real policies.
by Scarpat on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Someone from Qld told me BK is just as likely to take votes from the ALP as the LNP…I could’t believe it, but then again, he was from Qld and was confident and I aint from Qld and wouldn’t know either way.
What I do suspect, pretty strongly, is that it will be an LNP win, with or without CN (I suspect the former)
by Mod Lib on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:45 pm
vitalise
She should have the photo of Rudd ignoring her for comparison.
BTW What was the background to Rudd snubbing her? Was it the health reforms?
by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Danny,
I agree with the STFU. But…in this instance Rudd chose to play their and really caucus didn’t have a choice. The reason we are revisiting this a second time is because not telling it like it was, meant the ALP didn’t take the public with them. I understood all the reasons why, but I don’t think it really could have played out any differently.
If the Oz public still thought Rudd was the boy wonder, the PMship would be a poisoned chalice until Rudd gave up.
by Space Kidette on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Gus – I know. I couldn’t watch it all because he had a pretty heavy heart but he still didn’t need to give Abbott those words to throw back ad nauseum every time Albo gets up to speak unless Kevin wins on Monday.
by BH on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:46 pm
mick
so the FIBS
stand for
Farging Imbecilic BUllshitting Suckholes
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:47 pm
King Albo the Great today seemed to be suggesting that there should be rules in Labor leadership ballots that MPs don\’t announce who they are voting for.
Of course this would just result in a lot of backgrounding to journalists who would then write stories based on the details.
But I guess it would have the benefit of not seeming like a bunch of cabinet ministers are pressuring backbenchers to vote in a particular way, as we saw earlier this week.
by Greentard on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:48 pm
A Kevin Rudd win might be enough of a shock to the system to shake things up in Queensland (and that’s not to encourage caucus to even consider such a thing!)
A Kevin Rudd loss is not going to help the ALP and will continue to suck the oxygen from the ALP campaign.
However, it doesn’t make any real difference – fundamentally “It’s Time” in Queensland.
by Jackol on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:48 pm
ce K
I am still awaiting joe to repost his original Q
In essence back in the kev07 days most here including you where cheering on news poll when it came out favour of rudd. ( remember poll wars when shanahnan dared to suggest that the ppm vote was all that counted)
Now when the polls don.t agree with your perceptions they are wrong and shit and I
for asking the ? why this is so am treated with contempt. who think they are smarter than me?
by Joe6pack on Feb 25, 2012 at 9:49 pm