Crikey



Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.

Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

3344 Responses

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  1. Radguy,

    h­ttp://www.apple.com/au/magicmouse/

    Will it work with my Windows PC?

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:12 am

  2. some of you on this blog is atrocious, either @William or other Moderators get’s it cleaned up, or I’m out permanently.

    It’s Childish and pathetic.

    I agree.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:13 am

  3. Shows,

    Mr Puffer is a Ms Puff.

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:13 am

  4. Do Magic Mouses work on PCs?

    Maybe – I’d say there are drivers because I’d want it to work in bootcamp (PC mode if you don’t know).

    by Radguy on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:13 am

  5. Awwwwww, this dragon is blushing.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:13 am

  6. shows

    so in dog years u is about 14?

    matches the qual of ur posts

    :(

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:14 am

  7. hmmm

    besides not getting the gender correct

    I don’t care what his agenda is, he seems to make sense most of the time.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:14 am

  8. The only other Puffer around is the unestimable Member for Indi.

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:14 am

  9. John Brumby’s endorsement of Gillard. Probably nothing new, but it is pretty detailed: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/divided-they-stand-20120225-1tvf6.html

    by rishane on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:15 am

  10. zoid

    yes william is to blame

    SACK BILBO!!!!!!

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:15 am

  11. Puff,

    How goes the new bridge?

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:16 am

  12. Gtard is a gturd, but we need their votes.

    by Radguy on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:16 am

  13. Shows,

    Mr Puffer is a Ms Puff.

    I disagree with you, but I respect you right to be wrong.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:17 am

  14. Just to make my contribution to the over-analyzing of all things to do with the ballot Monday.

    It may well be a not bad thing for some senior people like Albo and Faulkner to vote for Rudd. They may be worried that if he loses the ballot too badly he will leave the Govt, or Parliament.

    Whatever the result on Monday (and i expect Gillard will still by PM), i’d think that there will be much concentration on discipline for the rest of the term. They have demonstrated a capacity for that in the house, and i would hope that the tolerance for any leakers or rats is low from here on out.

    Ha, maybe the journo’s will find themselves with so little goss from the ALP they have to start writing about goss from the Li/Nats to keep their daily bread on the table?? :)

    by imacca on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:17 am

  15. Given the many, many stories about his ways with caucus, this part of Rudd’s stump story is almost amusing: [A party that has dignity at its heart. Not intimidation, but inspiration. A party where the representatives of our community feel not just free but compelled to speak and act as they see fit.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/to-help-to-build-and-to-create-20120225-1tv7a.html#ixzz1nPIWkZqv
    ]

    by rishane on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:17 am

  16. ducky

    soph is a puffer fish

    as in inscrutable fishy type

    never to be touched by lemurianor for that matter, human hands

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:17 am

  17. Looks like it does

    h­ttps://discussions.apple.com/thread/2221427?start=0&tstart=0

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:17 am

  18. gusface,

    La Puff of Indi is a Subtractor (or whatever) not a bloviate, at least not by definition.

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:19 am

  19. shows

    so in dog years u is about 14?

    matches the qual of ur posts

    There’s nothing to post about anymore.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:21 am

  20. DUCKY

    IN SPANGLISH

    she is the spratt of rats

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:22 am

  21. And here’s some Rein puffery: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/therese-rein-says-husband-kevin-rudd-is-a-changed-man-who-has-learned-not-to-take-over/story-e6freuy9-1226281538947

    by rishane on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:22 am

  22. How Mirrabooger got in is the unfortunate proof of the effectiveness of the brainwashing formulae served up by right wing scum media.

    by Radguy on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:22 am

  23. shows

    coolio

    time for the blue pill

    relax,relax, just a basic jab, no one needs to know

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:24 am

  24. shows

    just the basic facts

    relax, there is no feeling, like a ship on the horizon, u are just coming in waves

    U have become, comfortably numb

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:25 am

  25. There’ll be no more argh!

    by Radguy on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:26 am

  26. rishane,

    I see that all those committed to Julia will now switch to Kevvie!

    OT, my wife says I’m wonderful. Might try for PM in the near future.

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:27 am

  27. when i was a child, i caught afleeting glimspe

    a ships smoke on the orizon

    U HAVE BECOME, COMFORTABLY NUMB

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:27 am

  28. TLBD///1974…..
    Sophie Mirrabella cerainly could certainly subtract from old Prof Howard’s bank balance

    by deblonay on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:28 am

  29. DUCKY

    i would vote for U

    cept us lemurs cant actually write

    :(

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:28 am

  30. relax, there is no feeling, like a ship on the horizon, u are just coming in waves

    U have become, comfortably numb

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E9obXA6mDY

    by ShowsOn on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:29 am

  31. It may well be a not bad thing for some senior people like Albo and Faulkner to vote for Rudd. They may be worried that if he loses the ballot too badly he will leave the Govt, or Parliament.

    Maybe you’re right. Mustn’t hurt the plonker’s feelings, after all.

    I didn’t get the impression Albo was all that chuffed with his announced voting intention, either. He certainly wasn’t choked-up with tears of joy at the prospect of voting for the Teflon Rat.

    As long as the gag Rudd somehow so he doesn’t engage in any more of his white-anting and “boganville backgrounding” I’ll be a happy little vegemite.

    Oh yeah, and get rid of Hawker.

    He thinks he’s The Earl of Warwick, the Kingmaker out of the Wars of The Roses or something. Time to retire him-off to that Castle in the fens where he can pull the wings off flies and can’t do any more damage to the Labor Party.

    by smithe on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:29 am

  32. There’s nothing to post about anymore.

    “If you are tired of posting on PB then you are tired of life.”

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:29 am

  33. deb

    my sis worked for C howard

    gareth gareth was his understudy

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:30 am

  34. Oh yeah, and get rid of Hawker.

    He thinks he’s The Earl of Warwick, the Kingmaker out of the Wars of The Roses or something. Time to retire him-off to that Castle in the fens where he can pull the wings off flies and can’t do any more damage to the Labor Party.

    If VexNews is to be believed, Hawker’s pissed because Gillard allows him much less access to the PM’s office than Rudd did.

    by rishane on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:31 am

  35. “If you are tired of posting on PB then you are tired of life.”

    Ummm

    shows is just tired of thinking

    I think his/hers brain hurts

    :(

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:31 am

  36. shows

    the beach boyz aint pink floy

    :(

    tho in ur fervoured mind

    anyone is fair game

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:33 am

  37. If I was Julia, the only access I’d be giving him after this latest disgraceful episode is access to the tip of one of my Number 9′s as I boot him out the door.

    And farquing stay-out.

    by smithe on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:34 am

  38. It is a conundrum we’re at. Focus group or leadership?

    by Radguy on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:34 am

  39. gusface,

    Shows is an “it”, of sex indeterminate.

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:35 am

  40. hawker is outta the inner circle

    apparently this outrage is costing him about 50 mil ayear

    why is julia so unkind

    :(

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:35 am

  41. ducky

    shows is all male

    or so cyril assured me

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:36 am

  42. As long as the gag Rudd somehow so he doesn’t engage in any more of his white-anting and “boganville backgrounding” I’ll be a happy little vegemite.

    Will it actually matter that much? He’s out of cabinet so wont have access to as much info and background as he did before, and, after Caucus basically rejecting him twice, i wonder how many of the commentariat will take him as a serious contender after a while? A rejection this time is going to validate a lot of the negative opinion that has been outed about Kevin lately.

    Even if the parties aren’t, the media pack is definitively poll driven. Even a short period of recovery for the ALP in the polls (and i think that during the latter half of the year it will be slow trending up ) may make them consider Kevin a bit of a grumpy has been with the most relevant question being, will he contest his seat in 2013??

    by imacca on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:37 am

  43. and gnite

    btw

    to all u false flagging rudd fanboys

    choke on ur dagwood dogs

    dogs

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:37 am

  44. deblonay
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 2:28 am | Permalink
    TLBD///1974…..
    Sophie Mirrabella cerainly could certainly subtract from old Prof Howard’s bank balance

    Yes, I haven’t heard much about the Puff Adder and her travails as Colin Howard’s executor for some time now.

    Does anyone know if the rellies have bitten the bullet and sued?

    by smithe on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:38 am

  45. So, here’s some news: http://www.theage.com.au/national/health/dental-plan-to-aid-children-and-lowincome-earners-20120225-1tva5.html

    by rishane on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:41 am

  46. smithe

    still in play

    dec due late feb/early march

    soph is still more chance of fronting a beak than craig

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:42 am

  47. From greener fields:

    Former News International chief executive was allegedly given details of original investigation by senior Met police officer

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/25/rebekah-brooks-police-phone-hacking

    The fire under Roo’s tootsies is getting brighter.

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:42 am

  48. An extra supply of popcorn is required next week:

    Leveson inquiry: Sir Paul Stephenson and John Yates to appear

    Former Met commissioner and ex-assistant commissioner among main witnesses to give evidence next week

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/24/leveson-inquiry-stephenson-yates

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:44 am

  49. ducky

    rupe followed me

    then unfollowed

    I suspect he is guilty as sin

    by gusface on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:46 am

  50. Someone is getting on with the job. No, not you, Kevvie!

    EVERY Australian child and millions of low-income earners would get basic dental services up to a capped amount each year, in a dramatic reform to end the poverty trap of chronic dental ill health.
    But more complex procedures, such as crowns and implants, would not be covered by the scheme, which would cost $10 billion over the first four years, according to a confidential report on the proposal due to be released tomorrow.

    rishane’s ref

    by This little black duck on Feb 26, 2012 at 2:46 am

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