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Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling f

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We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.

Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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3344 comments

3,344 thoughts on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

  1. ltep

    [Tricot, as someone who has sat through whole courses of feminist studies, I still think you’re reading too much into it.]
    You poor bastard.

  2. Gillard should win decisively tomorrow…..something like 3:1 or 4:1 in her favour. Rudd has shown he does not have the personal qualities required to win the trust and support of his colleagues. Apart from that, he cannot offer continuity in office. He is the kamikaze candidate.

  3. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol]

    WOW….another shock!

  4. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    #Newspoll Gillard: Approval 26 (-6) #auspol]

    Hmmm, this one not so much…

  5. [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:25 pm | Permalink
    It turns out I have a block on “c*&&nt”, for what I think is pretty good reason]

    Just added in a couple of amplisands to make your C word stay,

    What’s your “pretty good reason?”

    [What constitutes an “offensive word” is, I guess, in the eye of the beholder, but I don’t think it should be that great a surprise that I nominated that as one at some point in the past.]
    Times have changed. Every other offensive word in the book is used, yet according to your sensitivities this one is oh, so fkn terrible.

    What ever.

    Still doesn’t alter your explanation about Danny Lewis, does it?

    Sheer prejudice.

  6. I’m pretty sure there will be (other) people all over facebook and twitter complaining that Gillard as won. I think I might avoid the social networking sites for a few days.

  7. [there are some people out there who won’t vote for her because she’s a woman.]

    There are also some who won’t vote for her because she is an atheist.
    Some because she is unmarried and living with a bloke.
    Some because she is deliberately barren.

    This influences the opinion polls.

    Come election day many of these will move the pencil to mark a 1 for the LNP candidate,
    but their guts will start to churn and their brain will whisper to them.
    ÿou know, you know you know.
    And their hand will move and mark a 1 for labor candidate.

  8. I think the polls post spill will probably be more informative. I wonder whether Labor’s support has ticked up because people think Rudd will be PM again?

  9. Just watching Laurie Oakes giving Kevin Rudd a foot rub in repeat on Sky News.

    Anyone else who saw it get the impression that Ruddy already knew what questions he was going to get?

  10. Well, well
    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    ·More
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol

    spoll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+3) L/NP 45 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    ·More
    #Newspoll Gillard: Approval 26 (-6) #auspol

    Seems to be a story in that. ALP up, Gillard Down
    ALP probably up on the slim hope of seeing off Gillard.

  11. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 36 (-1) Abbott 38 (-2) #auspol]

    A pox on both the houses!

  12. William Bowe
    [It turns out I have a block on “c*nt”, for what I think is pretty good reason. ]
    A good reason but in the early days of filtering there was a classic example of the blunt instrument of the algorithms at the time. There was a town in England that got most irate as they were blocked in the searches. The town of Scunthorpe.

  13. William

    [It turns out I have a block on “c*nt”, for what I think is pretty good reason.]

    There is an awful lot of cant here so I can’t see why you would ban the word.

  14. [gusface
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

    If Gillard is so great, why are her poll numbers so bad?

    umm

    change causes fear

    yes the MSM are PARTLY to blame

    other factors is the fact the electorate was cowed into afearful mob by howies constant fearmongering

    it will take a gen to get over the scars he left on the national pysche]

    Spot on Gus. The insecurity/fear associated with change has been a big factor. In a sense the Lady MacBeth image of Gillard challenging fed into the same fears.

    Quite a lot of those will subside as the compensation bits kick in. The over-the-top media meme of ‘Gillard Fail’ applied to almost every situation such as the ministerial reshuffle has been run at hysterical levels for so long that the public will resent it or grow bored with it. The Tent Embassy is a good example.

    Gillard has taken all that without complaint, the sign of a true leader. Ultimately the public will respect her for never being cowed into submission.

  15. Kezza it is a vile word… No one should denigrate that sacred part of the female anatomy. As for male bits… There’s not a lot noble about an appendage that takes out the metabolic trash as well as the swimming team… It’s functional but fair game.

    William is as right as society is on this one, I’m afraid.

  16. [Apple Blossom
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink
    You know what is pretty torturous? Last night, I was at this small party, I found myself being surrounded by Ruddsters. One thought Gillard’s primary support vote is 10%.

    I managed to distract myself by talking to someone who wasn’t paying attention to conversation. Keeping my mouth shut was a difficult experience.]
    Ah, yes, Blossom, message received loud and clear.
    You weren’t prepared to trade your popularity for integrity.
    Sounds a bit like Rudd, actually.

  17. Abbott’s approval 31 (-5), disapproval 57 (+5).

    Abbott might be starting to get very nervous.

    Why has GWV not given Gillard’s disapproval?

  18. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 36 (-1) Abbott 38 (-2) #auspol

    4m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Abbott: Approval 31 (-5) Disapproval 57 (+5) #auspol

    5m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Gillard: Approval 26 (-6) #auspol

    6m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+3) L/NP 45 (-1) #auspol

    6m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol]

  19. [Ah, yes, Blossom, message received loud and clear.
    You weren’t prepared to trade your popularity for integrity.
    Sounds a bit like Rudd, actually.]

    No, it’s called not wanting to be killed by your boyfriend after the party. They weren’t even my friends, they were his.

  20. [Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink
    Kezza it is a vile word… No one should denigrate that sacred part of the female anatomy.]
    Why is it a vile word if it is talking about a sacred part of the female anatomy???

    See what I mean about ILLOGIC!

    Do you get it?

  21. GS: Abbott’s approval is lower than Gillard’s was last time.

    That should give the Liberal Party some food for thought, considering they are trying to argue SHE is horribly unpopular …

  22. Itep – one more go!

    Like Poroti has been saying time and time again, it is not just the gender thing.

    I was trying to give you one simple example of what passes as ha! ha! stuff for some. Bit like ethnic jokes I suppose.

    Like this one – told to me by a Pole and one of my favourites.

    Polish officer has to shoot both a German and a Russian. He is asked by a friend which one he will shoot first.

    He replies: The German. Why, asks his colleague.

    Business before pleasure, replies.

    Now, see, if I were Russian or German I might be a bit offended by this. But a Pole would really get the joke.

    The sexist crap exists and I suggest the courses you say you have attended were obviously a waste to time and money.

    By the way, apologies to all those of you of German, Russian or Polish extraction!

  23. Mick Wilkinson
    [No one should denigrate that sacred part of the female anatomy. As for male bits… There’s not a lot noble about an appendage ]
    Well done sir.Probably the most sexist comment yet.

  24. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    Abbott’s nightmare starts this evening with #Newspoll with this: Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+3) L/NP 45 (-1) #auspol