Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)
We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.
Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I just don’t want to give a smart arse any oxygen.
by Gary on Feb 26, 2012 at 9:52 am
harsh X2
by Mod Lib on Feb 26, 2012 at 9:53 am
NO! An arsehole like Abbott will NEVER deserve the keys to the lodge no matter what anyone else does. He is a blight on the political landscape of this country.
More accurate to say that the Labor party wouldn’t deserve them and leave it at that.
by Darn on Feb 26, 2012 at 9:55 am
Smithe – JG will do a ‘Leo Barry’ in the dying seconds of the 2013 election and soar over the top of the Oppn pack – WINNERRRRRRRR!!!!
by BH on Feb 26, 2012 at 9:56 am
Rudd has said he wont have a second go
He also said he wasnt part of a campaign by stealth
He said he had not backgrounded against Gillard
He said he did not call Gillard names (several witnesses to that one)
THe only person who has a better facility with lying is Tony Abbott (apart from the rodent of course)
by Andrew on Feb 26, 2012 at 9:57 am
I switched to Rudd/Oakes during Talking Pictures. He drips insincerity when he speaks and always has – “I’ve gotta say” etc. Maybe it’s just his speaking style and I’m being too harsh. He’s articulate, but his style comes across badly.
by triton on Feb 26, 2012 at 9:58 am
I think at this stage, he’s just hoping it won’t be a complete massacre and that he’ll come out of the leadership stoush with numbers that are better than humiliating so that he can trot-off to the backbench with some shred of credibility left.
He’s probably hoping for between 30 and 40 votes. I reckon he could get 30, but 40 is out of the question in any practical sense. Anything under 30 would be a humiliation.
He’s sure no Keating.
by smithe on Feb 26, 2012 at 9:59 am
BB
Everyone is getting off on retrials at the moment. Foxy Knoxy, Gabe Watson, Rene Rivkins mate.
The Chamberlains will be exonerated soon.
by Diogenes on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:00 am
Kerry Anne Walsh hit the nail on the head when she wished for ‘the media to get on with explaining policy’
by BH on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:00 am
Cant see Rudd’s “direct action” campaign to the peeps is going to swing one vote in Caucus. Its all a bit sad and pathetic really.
by Andrew on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:00 am
Last day to enter The Kevenge Sweepstake. Figures currently stand at;
Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
TP 187 (unconfirmed)
Son of Zoomster 44
centaur009 41
Mod Lib 39
shellbell 36
BH + stanny 35
p m z + ltep 34
Andrew 33
Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril + Tom Hawkins + slackboy72 32
centre +Boerwar 31
BK + mexicanbeemer 30
Think Big + outside left 29
muttleymcgee + zoidlord + robot 28
Finnigans (waiting for offers)
Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Diogenese + Boinzo + rosemour 27
Poroti 26
It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre + Mick Collins 25
AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton + jeffmu + Michael Cusack 24
imacca + smithe + Dr Fumbles McStupid 23
Danny Lewis 22
fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon +Gorgeous Dunny 21
Jaeger + janice2 + sohar 20
Last name red wombat 19
Guface 18
kezza2 + Scringler 17
Ctar + rummel 10
canasta76 3
deflationite (a very brave) -13
Oakeshott Country + jenauthor + JohD – 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default)
by poroti on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:02 am
Andrew based on what a majority of senior ministers are saying about Rudd his word can’t be trusted therefore anything is possible when he loses tomorrow.
by DavidWH on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:05 am
Well, well. Maybe the MSM itself is beginning to tire of the gotcha games and substanceless spin it has been boring us with for the last 2 years.
by smithe on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:05 am
Well it looks like the godless deliberately barren women is gong to whip his ass.
My wife and two kids are happy about that.
I had a long conversation with the spaghetti monster and he said he is too.
Now why is it you think I am completely mad when I start talking about conversations with my sky fairy?
by fredn on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:05 am
Mod Lib
Whatever else you might say and whatever else PBs (including me) may say about you, I admire you for your stance on Abbott. It shows a level of principle not often seen in politics.
by Darn on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:06 am
Poroti Just before I go put me down for 31
by mari on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:07 am
mari
31 it is.
by poroti on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:08 am
Well, colour me surprised
Today’s Insiders was good, and I also enjoyed last week’s. Definite improvement.
Poor old Piers came out of the blocks against Kevin, but lost traction towards the end when he started dissing AGW. Good effort, tho.
Anyone who is still insisting that Gillard is losing support should look at the Catsaras graphs, which definitely indicate that Labor is improving.
Given clean air from the media, things could go well. Hope the caucus members all have the brains to understand that.
by lizzie on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:08 am
It’s more what he didn’t say.
No mention of The Heiner Affair (which involved Rudd, allegedly), Ipswich Inc. (the late unlamented Glenn Milne’s creation, often brought up by Pies), he wasn’t talking over the top of everyone else (Barrie might have had something to do with that), he didn’t bad-mouth Gillard, he wasn’t biting the sofa, he’s lost weight, and I didn’t see one fleck of foam at the corners of his mouth (although admittedly the camera wasn’t on him the whole time, it’s possible he might have wiped it away when the red light went off).
In fact I was wondering whether it really was the Pies we’ve come to know and love.
But just as I thought we might get to the end of the program still in two minds as to what they’d done with P. Akerman, he made a feeble attempt at criticising Climate Science, which was quickly gagged by Barrie and the others… most amazingly, he didn’t even argue about being shut up.
Quite disturbing in its way, but a welcome change from the usual Frankenpies.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:09 am
Poroti,
Put me down for 31 for Rudd. I can’t see why the MPs would need to be lying about their voting intention given that part of the game is to convince others to vote a certain way.
I would have thought there would have been clear directions for those in factions to use a particular line of attack on Rudd.
by bluegreen on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:09 am
Put me down for 43.
Still time for a 3rd candidate …
by WeWantPaul on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:10 am
That was the best Insiders for a long long time.
by deflationite on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:10 am
No doubt that would the ‘other media’, the one Walsh isn’t a part of?
by confessions on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:11 am
Gee, thanks Darn…
by Mod Lib on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:11 am
How can I back Rudd as a Green?
Suffice to say, I dont like Gillard’s chance of beating Abbott. Its p retty simple really.Expect the 30-odd voting with Rudd tomorrow fee the same.
It has nothing to with being further away from him – this is to play into the bad and pointless personality politics that dominates this issue, and the public doesnt like. I really dont give a stuff about either of their characters. Critically, the public doesnt either, (except insofar as there is a bad smell over Gillard’s ascension,and the “carbon tax lie” line peddled by Abbott seems to have stuck to her.)
As a GRN, I also know the ALPs progress on CO2 was forced on them by minority govt. Otherwise Rudd and Gillard’s policies are basically the same: emissions trading. The fixed price period was the GRNs polcy. The worst mstake of the Rudd era – backing down – was a joint mistake by both.
Also, I want to know why Rudd has so much support in caucus given these terrible tales about him? He’s clearly going to get aboutt a third, against a first term PM. KcKew’s account of what happened behind the scenes really undermines a lot said here.
And above all, wtf is this shit? http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/we-prefer-defeat-to-rudd-mps-20120225-1tvfn.html
I dont care if you hate Rudd, fine – but whats this rubbish? These people should be de-selected on principle. If you dont want to beat Abbott, get out of the game. resign, retire, smell ya later.
I want Rudd to 30-40 tomorrow. A live option to turn to if the polls dont shift. Thats where I stand. To be fair, I really dont give a crap if ALP Ministers dont like him – my attitude there is too bad – beating Abbott is more important.
by lefty e on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:12 am
Rudd 29
by Gary on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:13 am
I think there will be a lot of abstains.
by fredn on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:13 am
Turned off the Oakes interview after 5 minutes. Ugh!
by political animal on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:16 am
Once was more than enough.
by Rox on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:16 am
poroti Mine should be 33 please.
Andrew – did Oakes ask any hard questions? Did he challenge Rudd on anything? We don’t get FTA reception here so can’t tape it or whatnot.
by BH on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:17 am
An interesting point from Danby this morning on Bolt’s show.
ALP members aren’t getting many phone calls (he says), but they are getting thousands of emails, tweets, tumbler messages etc.
Its the new social media dynamic at work and this could be where Rudd is ahead of the curve in his attempts to find a US-style primary level of support
by Mr Squiggle on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:17 am
R U referring to Rudd or my version of Reddy?
by Mod Lib on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:17 am
BLUEGREEN – I’m not so sure. If there is a true secret poll, the “scared rabbits” in the marginals might plump for Rudd out of self-interest (unless they think that means an early election). Be interesting.
by rosa on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:17 am
There is time for a stalking horse to take some votes away from Gillard. However, that seems to work better in the Liberal Party where the cult of personality and ideology are stronger forces than factionalism.
For examples, Kevin Andrews simply gained everyone who identified as Conservative and not Progressive when he challenged Turnbull.
So unless it was a factional heavyweight, looking to be a wrecker for some long-term internal power play, I really doubt a stalking horse or third candiate will emerge yet.
But as Lenore said, some Rudd-free time will sheet home to the caucus that Julia is unelectable on her own merits. That is when a third candidate will emerge. I’d expect Arbib to be polling on Steven Smith and Tony Burke. But really the gap between Rudd and allcomers for the ability to draw votes is enormous.
by bluegreen on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:17 am
There is time for a stalking horse to take some votes away from Gillard. However, that seems to work better in the Liberal Party where the cult of personality and ideology are stronger forces than factionalism.
For examples, Kevin Andrews simply gained everyone who identified as Conservative and not Progressive when he challenged Turnbull.
So unless it was a factional heavyweight, looking to be a wrecker for some long-term internal power play, I really doubt a stalking horse or third candiate will emerge yet.
But as Lenore said, some Rudd-free time will sheet home to the caucus that Julia is unelectable on her own merits. That is when a third candidate will emerge. I’d expect Arbib to be polling on Steven Smith and Tony Burke. But really the gap between Rudd and allcomers for the ability to draw votes is enormous.
by bluegreen on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:17 am
Poroti, are you going to post all the predictions sometime?
by Rox on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:18 am
WWP
Malcolm Turnbull would clean up as Labor leader. The Labor people would still voe for him, some Greens would shift to Labor and quite a few Libs. And the swingers would like it.
You know it makes sense.
An awful lot more sense than Prime Minister Tony Abbott .
by Diogenes on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:18 am
I have just crunched Poroti’s numbers.
Average – 28
95% probability between 16 and 40.
FWIW
by BK on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:18 am
Mod Lib – your Reddy version. Obviously.
by Rox on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:18 am
LEFTY – E: I’m in Sydney electorate (plibersek). who’s the green candidate going to be. Hope not the same as last time. Any chance you’re going to put up someone more high profile?
by rosa on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:18 am
BLUEGREEN – A third candidate for labor would be a total disaster. It would turn a rout under Julia to an unmitigated debacle because it would be giving the australian electorate a huge “up yours” and say the party hasn’t learnt anything from dumping rudd. Better to stay with Julia.
by rosa on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:20 am
Labor can’t have Turnbull. He’s our saviour.
by DavidWH on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:20 am
Rudd is the flashy but ill-disiplined Centre-Half-Forward.
Uncontested and in front of goals can look brilliant, but wilts under pressure.
Gillard is the no-nonsense in and under mid-fielder.
Does the heavy lifting, often has to play ugly and sacrifice her natural flair for the team, but is always reliable and is the first person that the Coach picks
by Mick Collins on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:20 am
From what I’ve seen on twitter, most people are appalled at Rudd’s behaviour and are expressing little support for his return as leader.
by confessions on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:22 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/anthony-albanese-declares-support-for-rudd/story-fnccyr6m-1226281713114
by Mod Lib on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:22 am
I’m not convinced Rudd’s “popularity” is sustainable over months.
by Gary on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:22 am
Poroti @ 2110.
You missed me I think.
The other day I called in at 28.
jeffemu calling 28
Taaaahhh
by jeffemu on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:24 am
Dio:
Turnbull is a Liberal through and through. It’s just the Liberals are in such disarray that he appears more Labor.
by confessions on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:24 am
Sorry I stand corrected Poroti… just saw I was down at 24…
Leave as 24
Sorry bout that Chief
by jeffemu on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:25 am
Gillard has a chance at the next election as long as Labor genuinely unite after tomorrow.
by Gary on Feb 26, 2012 at 10:25 am