Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)
We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.
Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Fargot61,
My opinions on the 2010 election reflected an analysis of the betting markets (one of my fields of expertise
), where I kept Bludgers informed, and was SPOT ON.
I declared that had Abbott firmed to 2.25 on the open market, he wins the election. He got as close as 2.30.
I also declared on election day, where bookmakers continued to hold betting late in the afternoon, that it would be extremely close and mentioned we could be facing a draw.
by Centre on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Slackboy,
In 1998, the ALP won more primary votes than the Coalition and also won the 2PP so therefore they should have been in government. They however didn’t win enough seats so they weren’t. Please understand how our democracy works.
Both the Liberals and Nationals are on the right of the political spectrum whilst conversely the ALP and Greens are on the left. The Greens and ALP are in a defecto relationship if that makes it easier to understand.
by Kirky on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Albo very emotional.
by BK on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Since when has 72 out of 150 been a majority?
by slackboy72 on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:02 pm
albo almost in tears
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:03 pm
This has been my point all along. Rudd and Rudd alone chose to bring this on now and the way in which it was brought on. It was all so unnecessary.
by confessions on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Albo goes for Abbott!!!
by BK on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Albo
by womble on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Albo backing Rudd. Offered his resignation as LoTH.
by confessions on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:05 pm
dogma
So Rudd’s wish for a hot meal should be understood by his special diet which he isn’t on?
by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:05 pm
dogma:
Dio seems to work on the principle that since he has a medical degree he is free to talk about any specialty area he sees fit!
I wouldn’t take much heed of his comments (and for those non-medico bloggers: I would take any comment he makes about medicine, outside his field, with a grain of salt and discuss with your own medical team before changing anything)
by Mod Lib on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:06 pm
albo going for rudd
offered resignation
JG not accepting it
Hmmmmmmmm
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:06 pm
I dont get why Albo has just wrecked his career?? Can someone please explain it to me?
by Andrew on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Slackboy@259 – what a great name!
By the way, you have it on good authority that “nearly all Queensland” calls the PM the base name.
Boy, you must have top network to glean this.
I see you did not bother to respond to my other points – which I take it, you can’t.
And, comrade, in a democracy we can call our political leaders what we like within the bounds of the law, but a so-called aspiring leader does not do this to potential political enemies and be taken with one ounce of seriousness.
But then again, the shallow comments from his hot and sweaty supporters here suggest that they are like personalities – can’t cope with failure.
A bit slack comrade, to coin a weak pun.
by Tricot on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Julia has told Albo to shove his resignation. She wants him to continue as Leader of the House.
by BK on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Unlike many here, he knows exactly what is happening to ALP…
by Mod Lib on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Sounds like he is trying to be a uniting force in some ways though – looks well placed to unite the troops after Julia wins on Monday
by womble on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Thanks for the condescension Kirky but if you think Gillard got the mandate of the voting public you’re a muppet.
by slackboy72 on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:08 pm
womble.
Let’s hope so.
by BK on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:08 pm
And who gets to sit as PM at the dispatch box to the right of the speaker on the floor of the House?
Hint: It sure isn’t your boy Abbott.
by smithe on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Does Albo have ANY sway over caucus? I cant see that it will shift any votes, given he was always in the leading Rudd camp anyway?
by Andrew on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:09 pm
It’s these people who remind me why it was a good decision not to join the ALP in 1993.
by slackboy72 on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Ian – not right but just cynical about the lot of them. I have admired and loved reading many journos over the years. At the moment there are almost none I can trust to give us facts as against mired opinion. They are not bloggers they are supposed to be purveyors of fact.
BTW – I love your posts and always look forward to them.
Now I am bitterly disappointed in Albo’s decision which will probably sway a lot of the younger ones.
by BH on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:09 pm
diog said
“So Rudd’s wish for a hot meal should be understood by his special diet which he isn’t on?”
WTF.????????
by dogma on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Andrew
Albo is supposed to be able to shift a few votes. Dunno how many.
by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:11 pm
“Dr John – They both like to have a leak.
How fast MD over a furlong these days?” Quite fast as he rides a pushbike but did have a bad fall from, last year.
by Dr John on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Christ, Albanese deserves to be the leader far more than anyone else in the party.
by slackboy72 on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Anthony Albenese is a low dog he just convinced a rusted on labor supporter of 50 yrs standing that they have completely lost the plot, good on you Kamikaze Kev mission accomplished if I wanted to vote for a lunatic I already had the Abbott option,gutless easy way out Albenese the old guard needs mucking out,opportunist bastards all!
by Brian62 on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Well Slackboy, John Howard didn’t get it in 1998 either.
Are you from Queensland?
by Kirky on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Albo offers resignation as leader of the house, no no no no no!
Julia should not accept it, the Party MUST unite!
Rudd has done it wrong. He should have done his best as a team player and if Gillard was still stuggling then he could have moved.
But no, EAR WAX had to make sure of it (that Julia did not gain traction in the polls in the meantime).
by Centre on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:13 pm
So Albo counselled Rudd not to stand in 2010 – and now says he’s going to vote for Rudd because he didn’t have a chance to vote in 2010.
He doesn’t look to the past, but is voting as he would have in the past?
Internal contradiction?
by kezza2 on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Has anyone mentioned Mike Carlton’s column in the SMH today? Haven’t seen a reference.
The party’s over. Rest in despair
An amusing (if it wasn’t so sad) little ditty to start it off:
Carlton makes a point that has always played on my mind since June 2010.
2 of the 3 ALP politicians I most respect are now supporting Kevin Rudd, John Faulkner and Anthony Albanese. The other is Greg Combet.
I have made no secret of my preference for Kevin Rudd and my contempt and loathing, not for Julia Gillard, but by those geniuses Arbib, Bitar, Howes, Shorten and Feeney who masterminded the highly damaging coup in 2010.
I will work and campaign for the ALP regardless of who leads us into the next election. A simple proposition I have always adhered to.
I wonder what those spewing all the hate and vitriol on this site and even worse on Frank’s will do were Kevin Rudd to be the leader?
by bemused on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Disappointed in Albo’s decision. Why would he give it all away like that (despite Julia’s refusal to accept his resignation)?
Oh well, I guess there were always bound to be some surprises, but this is a big one.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Thanks Smithe, my memory was a bit off 35 years+ after reading it.
But we at war with Eurasia, for we have always been allied with Eastasia.
by Fargo61 on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:14 pm
The way Albo has handled this is how Rudd should’ve handled it; private discussion with the PM first then a public announcement. Not the suicide bomber approach he went with.
by confessions on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Poroti. If its not too late, and apologies for lateness anyway, I wouldlike to nominate 24 votes for Rudd. Regards
by Michael Cusack on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:15 pm
good to hear he isn’t lobbying – that will lessen the impact of his decision
wonder if John Faulkner will announce his position
by womble on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Apart from Rudd’s duplicity, the least edifying aspects of this sorry saga have been the abusive comments of senior ministers. They have brought shame to themselves and their party.
by Toorak Toff on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Yes, I noticed that too!
by Mod Lib on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:15 pm
I would be shocked if he did.
by Mod Lib on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:16 pm
albo playing a straight bat
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:17 pm
I don’t get this “refusal to accept resignation” thing. If you want to resign, it’s not like the other person can refuse to let you resign.
by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Done.
by poroti on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Gus:
He’s all class really.
by confessions on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:18 pm
And now we are getting the “we wus robbed” stuff from the tory lap dogs again, again, again.
Look friends, setting aside all the sensible things others have said about rules of the game, you know like who had the most votes, who is actually PM, who is actually in government, and who is in opposition, preferential voting system and so on…….
Abbott failed at his biggest hurdle – he could not convince two country conservative independents, and a loose cannon, to help him form government.
This is one of the biggest failures in political history the conservatives quickly brush over.
If Abbott had had any ability at all are real balls he would be in Gillard’s position now = PM. He is not.
Fran Kelly, ABC resident Liberal friend, at the time, was breathless and wetting herself over an Abbott “victory”. She has been in a funk ever since.
The loose cannon had the offer of squillion of dollars while I am not sure what he offered the country, independent conservatives. They wanted stable government and he could not provide it.
He failed and deserves to sit in opposition as one of the worst, most negative and despised LOTOs in history.
No policies, no Tony and not in government.
Just cop it sweet. You may have a chance in 2013 but don’t count your chickens just yet.
by Tricot on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:18 pm
good point there – is used to losing votes being from the NSW Left, they lost plenty at the most recent conference
genuine good guy and I respect his decision, even though i don’t agree with it and hoped he would go the other way
i stick with my earlier post – he is perfectly placed to unite them after the ballot
by womble on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:19 pm
I like the idea actually, there is far too little “honour” left in our society.
He felt it was required given he was LOTH and was supporting the PM’s challenger to resign as LOTH. She refused (apparently?) as a sign of her respect for him.
Don’t sully a beautiful moment Dio!
by Mod Lib on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Andrew, I have made a post for the reasoning behind Albo supporting Rudd I believe!
by Centre on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:19 pm
IMO Albo is making these points:
He has listened to his electorate (bludgers said he would have a hard time there)
He is making his protest against spilling the PM at any time (altho it’s a bit late for 2010)
He loves the Labor Party
These don’t necessarily add up to a coherent whole and he’s upset.
by lizzie on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:20 pm
albo is doing what his principles tell him
this guy is rolled gold
after mon he is going to be the standard bearer for JG
by gusface on Feb 25, 2012 at 12:21 pm