Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)
We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.
Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
DANNY – Really? Has someone declared a free vote? Have the factional bosses said that they are laying down their arms and entering monasteries. When did I miss that?
by rosa on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm
While you all write and call your labor member as to who to vote for. I’m going to write to Abbott and seek a honorary liberal membership for both Rudd and gillard for services to the liberal party.
by rummel on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Diogenes
Who?
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:35 pm
It was an obvious lie then and even stupider to repeat now.
by WeWantPaul on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:35 pm
the compromise candidate has emerged:
https://twitter.com/#!/Oztony2/status/173238583568777216/photo/1
by sprocket_ on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:36 pm
vic
The blogger whose name we dare not speak.
by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Victoria
Not William’s comment. Albo is in no danger electorally. In fact the better the Liberals do is better for him.
Albo (and Tanya) are in danger only if there is simultaneous;y a swing against Labor AND the liberals.
The current hoo ha will certainly affect the Labor vote but it will also boost the Libs.
Albo would need a 10% sewing to the Greens, combined with a 5% swing from liberals to be in trouble
by daretotread on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:37 pm
sprocket
Good grief!!!
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Diog, it has to be you to write crap like that
by The Finnigans on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Smith
Hate to tell you but kev winning is a new ball game giving some momentum labor. Gillard victory is same old same old. I’m happy gillard is going to win.
We will be back to normal next week with the libs armed with fresh ammo. Looking forward to next week.
by rummel on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:38 pm
What would happen if rudd loses, then still destablises the party while on the backbench?
really what could the alp. do to him? Disendorse him at the next election?
Good o he stands as a indie and with his money and standing in Griffith wins. Then he could really do some damage.
by Joe6pack on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Flipper Boy
Who is Ron backing?
by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Rudd snapping at the hosty was because it had been nine hours, something like that, since lunch. Who wouldn’t be snappy under those circumstances? Nothing to do with a heart valve.
by political animal on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Perhaps then there is an element of your belief set that requires review.
perhaps you quite misjudged the lad, perhaps he isn’t quite that bad, I even find I’m missing Kevin’s dreams [attempts at ockerisms]
by WeWantPaul on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Diog, Uncle Ron has retired to the mountain to seek the Heavenly Mandate to comment
by The Finnigans on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:41 pm
WWP
Rudd has been an embarrassment. Drama queen. resiging whilst overseas at 1.00 in the morning. His behaviour has been an embarrassment
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:42 pm
finns 791 – let’s hope that’s right – one scenario – rudd trampled in a shopping centre appearance prior to monday and unable to attend!
by Lyne Lady on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Well, whether you’re Team Gilllard or Team Rudd – I’d be putting a bell on Shorto right about now.
You wanna know where that bloke’s been.
by lefty e on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Finns, are you still in touch with Ron? His presence is missed!
by ltep on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:43 pm
rummel,
you know that he has a three word limit…
by Scarpat on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:43 pm
As I said Rudd is a total and utter embarrassment
kimmaree_tweet
@Schtang apparently Rudd camp have a paid social media team on the go, someone else mentioned the paid Facebook ad’s #MiniMeObama
25/02/12 4:40 PM
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Dare to tread @ 805
Not sure of the exact facts regarding Albo and Plibersek’s vulnerability but I suspect that with Libs putting Greens last (hopefully) from now on, the inner city seats become safe Labor again and the Greens will never win one of them again.
by Mick77 on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:44 pm
MICK77 – I missed that. Have the Libs said they will put greens last???
by rosa on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:45 pm
My vote wont be going to Labor should Rudd take over the leadership at some stage. By then, the ALP will not be wortn a dime
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Scarpat
Ok….
Kevlard lib gold.
by rummel on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:47 pm
truly embarrassing
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Rosa
It’s the new mantra – they did in NSW and Vic and I think Howard has said recently that he should have done the same (which means Abbott will..)
by Mick77 on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:47 pm
That is one way at looking at the glass I prefer to think he has shone in public both during the coup and post crean’s moronic explosion.
Very grubby in between if the rumours are to be believed, and I suspect they are, but if there was anyone with clean hands who hasn’t and wouldn’t do exactly the kind of thing Rudd is rumored to have done then perhaps we should support them for leader, just as soon as we find them and get them into the Party and into Parliament.
by WeWantPaul on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Lady Lyne, if not, Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc will sack the Dolphin Deep Blue Intelligence Services and hire Bruce Hawker.
by The Finnigans on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Says a lot about your commitment to the Labor Party and the Labor movement and explains the thinking behind your comments. Sad.
by WeWantPaul on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Why doesn’t the Rudd camp try an online petition as well. That’s sure to sway some caucus votes.
by ltep on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:49 pm
rosa
the Libs put Greens last in the Victorian state election and apparently have had very positive feedback from that decision.
by zoomster on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:50 pm
Well, at least he won’t be in cabinet, or his followers, except maybe Albo, and I can’t see Albo leaking.
So I guess won’t be insider stuff, just Rudd’s usual “She a F**kin’ bitch” line of patter.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:50 pm
so all is good when the bigger picture is examined – Rudd has been flushed out, and his lack of organisational skills confirmed by a half-arsed campaign announced from o/s. By his return, 60% + had publically declared for JG.
Abbott is nowhere to be seen, Focus on the government’s good policy – note every minister and the candidates take every opportunity to repeat what would be lost if Abbott won the next election. Wall to wall ALP policies – with no L-NP negative mantra and little MSM framing.
And the mystery around the events of June 2010 being aired – cathartic, but it addreses the illegitimacy meme front on. JG has put on her angrier demeanor – sharp, shorter answers, showing more leadership, looking good.
and the MSM have been outed. Mark my words – in 1 weeks time there will not be a word in the MSM about the challenge allegedly “tearing Labor apart”. 24/7 news cycle and their pea brains will not allow it.
by sprocket_ on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:50 pm
victoria
Just read in The Age that as well as compensating for the mistake in 2010, Albo had decided that Rudd would be the most successful leader of Labor in next election.
This hasn’t been quoted by anyone here, so can’t vouch for truth.
by lizzie on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Finally heard Albo’s speech in full.
It was a relief to see that at least one senior figure in the ALP is sane and balanced.
by lefty e on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:51 pm
You are just making stuff up, perhaps you should stick to the media irony pieces.
by WeWantPaul on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Albo did say that Lizzie: see here http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-25/anthony-albanese-to-vote-for-rudd/3852596
by lefty e on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Victoria it doesn’t really matter who you vote for. You’re in deakin aren’t you? You is going Liberal.
Danny Lewis back of the class….free vote? now I’ve heard it all.
by centaur009 on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Sandgroper Todd,
Unlike your good self of course who has been awarded three straight Order of Australia medals for his contribution!
by scorpio on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:53 pm
WWP
I am more of a Labor supporter than Rudd himself. That is why should he ever reclaim the leadership, the party will not deserve my support any longer.
I made up my mind about Rudd a few years ago. I was right about him then as I am now.
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Victoria
There is now an element of conscience in the divide, a sense that labor values can find a home with Rudd, instead of being defined by Crean’s Gillard-worshiping waffle.
Elbow appears to have respect from both camps and its clear he is not driven by the cult-of-personality clash.
by Mr Squiggle on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Don’t think this will go away – even if Rudd ends up with just 30. He’s got nothing to lose – just the future of his Party. And he doesn’t give a shit.
by al palster on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Danny
But doesn’t Rosa’s opinion demonstrate how a Rudd loss will be played out in the media by Team Rudd?
I don’t think too highly of Grattan’s opinion but even she was mocking the claims that some ministers were being threatened by factional brutes, but this is the perception that Rudd is fostering. That if he is denied a win it’s purely because of a few heavy weights.
by Dee on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:54 pm
zoomster
I s’pose that confirms what the Baillieu govt is doing. Anything green, chop it down. If it moves, shoot it.
by lizzie on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:54 pm
I loathe Carpenter, I am much more of a Labor supporter than he was even, even as a Labor Premier, but I still voted for his team.
by WeWantPaul on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:54 pm
From now on, assuming Gillard wins, all leaks will be sheeted home to Rudd.
In Kevspeak – fair suck of the source bottle.
by Scarpat on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:55 pm
centaur009
I am in one of Labor’s safest seats actually.
by victoria on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Everyone still arguing away in here? Good, good, but please get some rest and save your energy for monday morning.
by slackboy72 on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Thanks, leftye, I missed Albo’s full speech myself.
by lizzie on Feb 25, 2012 at 4:55 pm