Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

   

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

1,080 Comments

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  1. 1051
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Bye, bye, Kevvie!

  2. 1052
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    twitter says 73-29 to JG, according to abcnews24.

  3. 1053
    Gary
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Thankyou ladies and gentlemen.

  4. 1054
    Muskiemp
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Julia has won

  5. 1055
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    73-29

    So, who won the sweep?

  6. 1056
    DavidWH
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    That’s pretty comprehensive.

  7. 1057
    DavidWH
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    That’s pretty comprehensive.

  8. 1058
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Damn you last minute defectors, I picked 32!

  9. 1059
    triton
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Latham is on Sky. At least Latham has been an actual insider.

    He’s been making plenty of sense so far.

  10. 1060
    confessions
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Latham: Rudd has played the game of inflating his own numbers to the media.

    The msm hasn’t come out of this looking good at all.

  11. 1061
    political animal
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    73-29, a decisive win, thank goodness!

    Now Rudd should stop his treacherous destabilisation campaign!

  12. 1062
    joe2
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    73/29 is the figure Crean anticipated, I believe.

  13. 1063
    Andrew
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    thats a solid result. Dear MSM, a 44 vote margin for Gillard is higher than a 1 vote margin for Abbott

  14. 1064
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    New thread.

  15. 1065
    citizen
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    The Gillard/Rudd bout is over, with Gillard the victor.

    Now onto the Gillard/Abbott bout!

  16. 1066
    confessions
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Latham points to previous two-srike challengers and notes the symetry in that they all increased their margins by around a dozen. Rudd would need to pick up 23 in a 2nd challenge, which Latham says is in la-la land.

  17. 1067
    Lynchpin
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    BREAKING: GILLARD VICTORY 73 to 29, says SMH Phillip Coorey.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-pulse/showdown-labor-votes-20120227-1tx2i.html#ixzz1nXFPAuFd

    Phew!

    Now, let’s turn the bazookas on Abbott and his Tory cronies.

  18. 1068
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Ryan Giggs played his 900th game for Manchester United.

  19. 1069
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    I bags the biggest steak as I was the first on 29 :D

  20. 1070
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Latham just said Hartcher’s Two-Strike theory is La-La Land.

    Sky panel agrees that further speculation is “just silly”, “not gonna happen”, “fantasy”.

    Think of all that time wasted by journalists telling their readers and viewers that Rudd was making a come back. Think of all the damage done to the national discourse by this bullshit.

    And now they’re saying it was never gonna happen.

  21. 1071
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    Due to technical issues commenting on this post has been temporarily deactivated, my apologies for the inconvenience.

  22. 1072
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    I bags the biggest steak as I was the first on 29 :D

    Well at least you think big, Think Big.

  23. 1073
    Mick Collins
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    whats wrong with the blog bilbo ?

  24. 1074
    mari
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    I don’t seem to be able to get onto the new thread, and I want to claim the prize with Sprocket for the tipping competition, have been offered sausages, thick thin not sure what to take?

  25. 1075
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

    sorry mari – I think all that is left is the chuck steak

  26. 1076
    DavidWH
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

    Me either Maris. Looks like we are stuck in here. Essential has come in as I would have expected so not sure how much store we should put in polls until the dust settles.

  27. 1077
    mari
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    Shellbell
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:38 pm | Permalink
    sorry mari – I think all that is left is the chuck steak

    1076
    DavidWH
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink
    Me either Maris. Looks like we are stuck in here. Essential has come in as I would have expected so not sure how much store we should put in polls until the dust settles

    Are we the only ones? and now I am down to chuck steak, not fair, I was really after
    the cutlets

  28. 1078
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    PB is now a joke.

  29. 1079
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    That’s what happened when you let posts after posts after posts of ranting of the same things from then posters like Evan2GB, TP, Greetag etc. they simply chewed up the bandwidth.

  30. 1080
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Sorry about that – comments on the other thread are back on, so I’m closing this one.

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