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Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow's Newspoll offers an excellent

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I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1080 comments

1,080 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

  1. ShowsOn

    SIXTY FOUR PERCENT DISAPROVAL

    How do you like those rotten apples!?

  2. DavidWH

    I do take some comfort in that the chances of Turnbull challenging Abbott, while still small, will have increased just a little from the Abbott numbers which are terrible given the past weeks events.

  3. Scringler

    So, ABC24 will cover the events tomorrow from sparrow fart. Why? Jumpy shots of an empty room? The ABC really needs to get a grip.

    Anyway, some time ago, in a fit of pique, I dashed off a complaint to the ABC over its coverage of news conferences on ABC24. I complained that the journalists’ questions were, in the main, inaudible. I suggested the ABC invest in a directional microphone, available from Mr D. Smith for a modest price.

    I also advised that the cost of this kit should not exceed $14.96.

    And, to ABC24’s credit, I received this reply:

    +++

    “Thank you for your email regarding the lack of audio on questions at news conferences broadcast by ABC News24.

    This lack of audio is as frustrating to us as it is to you but sadly, based on current technology, it is something we cannot immediately resolve.

    The reason for the lack of question audio is that many camera crews nowadays consist only of the camera operator . A sound operator is rarely sent out on general news jobs as an efficiency measure. Consequently the camera operator has to monitor both his vision and the audio of the person being interviewed but does not have the capability to also point a directional microphone to pick up the questions.

    While that is not an issue for the ABC 1 7 p.m. news which uses only short soundbites, it is a significant problem for News24.

    ABC News 24 continues to seek a technical solution to what is essentially a human resource problem.

    We are sorry we cannot be more positive and regret the inconvenience. ”

    Dunno about you lot, but I regard that as a pretty honest answer.

  4. Mod Lib

    [Guesses ? My good sir they are all expert opinions ! Number currently stands at 96]

    C’mon PBers who haven’t voted…..lets get to the century!

  5. Thornleigh Labor Man

    Gary: Slipper is certainly a better speaker than Jenkins – I’ll agree with you on that one.

  6. William Bowe

    You’re trolling, Zoidlord. TP had done nothing other than state opinions you disagreed with, and you made a gratuitous personal attack against him. If you can’t deal in a more mature fashion with the expression of opinions you disagree with, please stop coming here.

  7. Mr Squiggle

    [i’m in for 52]

    Well done Geoffrey,

    I guessed 41 and I think the risks are on the upside too

    Is there scope for a second vote if the first is not conclusive? I don’t understand ALP rules at all

  8. Apple Blossom

    Poroti,

    Is there some prize for the person who managed to guess how many votes Rudd gets?

  9. Thomas Paine

    [How about this theory: Rudd being in the public eye over the last week or so actually helped Labor’s polling.
    The fact that the man will now be relegated to basically doing nothing on the backbench is a waste of talent & campaigning skill. .]

    Well as Possum said it is because people assume Rudd is coming back, being far preferred as he is.

    Won’t they all be in for a surprise when what they want matters not.

  10. Mick77

    51 all – pick from a hat. Now that’s what I call a mature solution.

  11. Benji

    poroti,

    please put me down for 36 after seeing these disapproval numbers.

  12. Gary

    [SIXTY FOUR PERCENT DISAPROVAL]
    While you’ve got Abbott at 57% disapproval then She is still in with a chance at the next election.

  13. poroti

    Mod Lib

    [Guesses ? My good sir they are all expert opinions ! Number currently stands at 96

    C’mon PBers who haven’t voted…..lets get to the century!]
    Right on.We are at 98 !!

  14. Thomas Paine

    [You’re trolling, Zoidlord. ]

    The other night I made a comment in reply, suitable to the nature of his. But that was last night.

  15. zoidlord

    @William/506,

    Rubbish, I didn’t call him or anyone such as Dickhead or the like, that’s a personal attack, I may have disagreed with his comments, but not call anyone of the sort (or anyone names for that matter).

    I think you have mistaken me for someone else.

  16. Apple Blossom

    Hey William.

    Are you going to join the crew and place your guess of how many wins Rudd will get on Monday to Poroti’s list?

  17. deblonay

    William 506 re Zoidlord trolling..

    Well said William…I’m on your side
    No chance of any challenge to your leadership here Sir

  18. Thornleigh Labor Man

    So we can conclude that the Newspoll again makes the case for the return of Rudd as leader – all irrelevant of course to 70% of the Labor caucus.

  19. Henry

    I will take a rising 2PP against an approval rating any day…

  20. poroti

    Apple Blossom

    [Poroti,

    Is there some prize for the person who managed to guess how many votes Rudd gets?]
    Yes, 24 hours of being able to say “Nyah Nyah.Told Ya So” .Keeping in mind William will set strict limits on such bragging.Perhaps as low as one…………. or less 🙂

  21. ShowsOn

    [Hey William.

    Are you going to join the crew]
    Yeah William, join the crew!

    We could go bowling, and then get hamburgers and milkshakes!

  22. lefty e

    [SIXTY FOUR PERCENT DISAPROVAL]

    Ok, that wont help her tomorrow.

  23. Mr Squiggle

    [I will take a rising 2PP against an approval rating any day…]

    That’s what TA says to his supporters

  24. Thornleigh Labor Man

    Gary: Yes, she’s got one thing going for her – she’s a tad less unpopular than Abbott. 🙂

  25. geoffrey

    tom paine

    you are right have been steadfastly so on this topic of kr for last 12 months dont care about your background you are right on this one . right also that newspoll is because public like rudd on front page. simple as that.

  26. Henry

    that’s right Evan because 70% of the labor caucus knows what he’s like.
    As are the public too, finally for that matter.

  27. Greensborough Growler

    Gillard will get 78 and Rudd 24.

  28. Apple Blossom

    [Yeah William, join the crew!

    We could go bowling, and then get hamburgers and milkshakes!
    ]

    It’s showsOn’s shout!

  29. sprocket_

    64% disapprove of JG, is fully 7% higher than :mrgreen: on 57% disapprove

    clearly JG’s numbers are conflated by the challenge scenario, so she is attracting all the Rudd votes + the normal L-NP ones she gets. This will settle back down after the challenge fades, which it will very very quickly.

    as for :mrgreen: sadly for him, the 57% disapprove is solid

  30. geoffrey

    so jules will male reprisal against anyone speaking out are true – such inclusivity. and tomorrow is a secret ballot, yes. result could be most interesting

  31. Mod Lib

    C’mon William….we need you to make the century!!!!

  32. ShowsOn

    [Gillard will get 78 and Rudd 24.]
    Wrong again!

  33. Henry

    Squiggle – the coalition 2PP is slowly declining.
    That’s the difference.
    Abbott is like Rudd in that Newspoll is his only friend and that friend is having…reservations…

  34. Diogenes

    Those ratings aren’t great but the important figure is what the vote would be if Rudd was leader.

    I’m guessing the poll will shift from an ALP loss under Gillard to a win under Rudd.

  35. jeffemu

    Question from the floor without notice.

    How come the preferred PM questions, preferred leader questions come out later then the earlier Newspoll released details.

    I thought they would just release all details of polls at the same time.

    .

  36. poroti

    Greensborough Growler

    [Gillard will get 78 and Rudd 24.]
    Laydeeeez and Genulmun we have PB entry number 100. Sold to the yappy dog in the corner 🙂 ( Counting may bot be accurate but damn near )

  37. Gorgeous Dunny

    [Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Ian

    Julia Gillard is stronger ethically, morally, personally and, importantly, mentally than Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnball and any other they put up against her.

    Not sure how that logic explains 11 years of John Howard. ]

    Well it was only the Liberal Party. And on the opposite side for most of that time was the do-nothing Beazley.

  38. rishane

    [So we can conclude that the Newspoll again makes the case for the return of Rudd as leader – all irrelevant of course to 70% of the Labor caucus.]

    And it should be irrelevant to them. As has been said many times, Rudd’s problems weren’t to do with TEH POLLS, no matter how many times the press claim that was it so they can keep bashing Gillard.

  39. ShowsOn

    [Squiggle – the coalition 2PP is slowly declining.]
    I’m still waiting for evidence of this. I don’t think the trend has shifted much if at all since mid November.

    Labor is on about 46, the Coalition is on about 54.

  40. Mick77

    Rising 2PP … maybe but isn’t the margin of error 2-3%? I suppose we’ll only know next poll what the Rudd in/out factor may have been. I suspect that Rudd’s presence with cheer squads in shopping centres has given 1-2% more and disappointment that he’s beaten could send it back to 55-45 or worse (with margin of error of course). Unfortunately the Rudd factor will not go away even if Rudd sort of goes away. His ghost will live forever on Gillard’s shoulder.

  41. zoidlord

    I’m surprised nobody has talked about what will happen after the events of tomorrow (i.e The next 18 months) if Rudd comes out as the winner – since he’s suppose to be the underdog?

    The only thing that this forum and the media has talked about is what will happen tomorrow?

  42. Mod Lib

    [Laydeeeez and Genulmun we have PB entry number 100. Sold to the yappy dog in the corner ( Counting may bot be accurate but damn near )]

    Well done!

    100 is the perfect number to do stats on so I would close now if I were you (sorry Bilbo, you missed the boat).

    As someone who has collated results before, I know how much work it is and tips my hat…

  43. poroti

    Last chance
    .
    1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
    187 (unconfirmed) TP
    52 geoffrey
    45 mick77
    44 Son of Zoomster
    43 WeWantPaul
    42 Scorpio
    41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
    40 lefty e
    39 Mod Lib
    38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
    37 Dyno , Luckydave
    36 shellbell
    35 BH , stanny ,ShowsOn, Benji
    34 p m z , ltep ,Thornleigh Labor Man, deblonay
    33 Andrew , BH , dave
    32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
    31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
    30 BK, mexicanbeemer , Apple Blossom
    29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
    28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
    27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemour
    26 Poroti ,womble
    25 It’s Time ,Dan Gulberry , Aguirre , Mick Collins , Paul_J , citizen , The Finnigans
    24 AJ Canberra ,TLBD ,Lord Barry Bonkton , jeffmu ,Michael Cusack ,Greensborough Growler
    23 Imacca,smithe ,Dr Fumbles McStupid , kevjohnno, briefly
    22 Danny Lewis ,political animal
    21 fredn ,Puff, the Magic Dragon ,Gorgeous Dunny
    20 Jaeger, janice2 , sohar
    19 Last name red wombat
    18 Gusface , oyster
    17 kezza2, Scringler ,cog, cybercynicagain
    10 Ctar , rummel
    3 canasta76
    A very brave -13 deflationite
    – 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD ,Gaffhook

  44. Thornleigh Labor Man

    I’m perversely hoping that Julia promotes her supporters and demotes or fires completely Ruddites in her cabinet reshuffle, because that would signal that she’s not a uniter at all, and it’d sow the seeds of her eventual political death.

  45. Gary

    If those saying it’s the Rudd influence that has boosted Labor’s vote are correct then he’s boosted them from a solid defeat to a bad defeat.

  46. Diogenes

    People here do understand that you can’t extrapolate a statistical voting trend, don’t they?

  47. Henry

    46/47 showns on – that’s a definite pull back from 58-42 from Sept/October IIRC.
    That must be obvious surely.

  48. gusface

    poroti

    anyone above 26 is going into my black book

    in red ink, no less

  49. Mick Collins

    Well, there is no way to know, but I suspect he would have done what the ALP did and follow the Treasuries advice. You say we would have gone into recession, just like Europe, blah, blah, blah…

    in other words you agree that the Fibs would have cocked up their handling of the GFC

  50. gusface

    [52 geoffrey
    45 mick77
    44 Son of Zoomster
    43 WeWantPaul
    42 Scorpio
    41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
    40 lefty e
    39 Mod Lib
    38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
    37 Dyno , Luckydave
    36 shellbell
    35 BH , stanny ,ShowsOn, Benji
    34 p m z , ltep ,Thornleigh Labor Man, deblonay
    33 Andrew , BH , dave
    32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
    31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
    30 BK, mexicanbeemer , Apple Blossom
    29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
    28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
    27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemou]

    hmmm

    might need a a few more black books

    🙁