Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

4059 Responses

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  1. Would you describe the current government as stable?

    Yes. Having just shut-down Rudd’s challenge by a record margin and having the support of sufficient indies and greens to see-off any challenge on the floor of the house (41 SSO motions so far and not one has been successful), I’d say they’re pretty damn stable, wouldn’t you?

    And how do you know what the indies want?

    Because they told us when the signed-on to support the Government. It’s not rocket science. They made it pretty plain what they wanted: A Gillard Labor Government.

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:42 am

  2. Will Roo have any skin left at all?:

    2.38pm: The Daily Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner has tweeted from the high court:

    Mr Justice Vos agrees to release largely unredacted version of #hacking court papers released last week (more follows)

    — Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner) February 27, 2012

    and

    Uncensored version of papers should include names of News of the World execs who ordered #hacking.

    — Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner) February 27, 2012

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:43 am

  3. Radguy
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 1:40 am | Permalink
    Jackol, it’s not me that you need to convince.

    Jeez, you asked the question and jackol and me answerd it.

    If you don’t like the answer, don’t ask the qustion comrade.

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:44 am

  4. 2.40pm: Paddick says in terms of public perception it would be better if Akers’s investigations into hacking and payments were being done by an outside force with no links to the Met police.

    Perxactly!

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:45 am

  5. 2.44pm: The Guardian editor-in-chef, Alan Rusbridger, has just tweeted:

    Now we know Brooks & Coulson warned abt £1m fees & #hacking in 06, those NI denials in full bit.ly/ozkSGw#leveson

    — alan rusbridger (@arusbridger) February 27, 2012

    Full story at h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/27/brooks-coulson-phone-hacking-2006
    Big ouch!

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:50 am

  6. Yes TLBD. Justice being seen to be done and all that.

    It always surprised me the amount of oppositon there was here to setting-up independent bodies (like ICAC) to investigate Police and Governmental misconduct. The practice used to be, for example, to get Mr Plod to investigate Mr. Plod.

    Never a good look.

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:51 am

  7. Smithe, you are pushing power for your own sake. The people have spoken. Loud and clear.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:51 am

  8. If you don’t like the answer, don’t ask the qustion comrade.

    I am fine with these answers. They’re not my answers.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:53 am

  9. Paddick is doing well. Might be a “real” pollie.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:54 am

  10. One has to wonder what lil ol Lachy knew about how daddy like to run his newspapers and exactly why he refused to head up the Aussie paper division.
    Given his record of fail it’s a bit disappointing he didn’t.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:55 am

  11. smithe,

    Every police force has an internal investigation unit. Unfortunately, however the serious the matter, it is responsible to the Police Commissioner.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:56 am

  12. abbot succeeds in making the public cynical … they turn off ‘policy’ or anything, from him and government but agree with his cynicism. he is corrosive and viral. the last week has been rare abbot free exposition of policy and issues – thanks to KR. there was also possibility of rudd back – hence polls today.this week shhould how sad our public life is generally – and not only because of labor division.

    by geoffrey on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:56 am

  13. They sure have radguy. They gave Labor the numbers to form minority Government after the 2010 election.

    Your side had similar numbers and could have formed a minority Government, but alas you lacked the nous and skill to stitch together a deal with the indies and greens to make it happen.

    Whose fault is that?

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:58 am

  14. Yes TLBD. Justice being seen to be done and all that.

    It always surprised me the amount of oppositon there was here to setting-up independent bodies (like ICAC) to investigate Police and Governmental misconduct. The practice used to be, for example, to get Mr Plod to investigate Mr. Plod.

    Never a good look.

    Like a government body taking forever to investigate a member of the government over CC transactions…

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:58 am

  15. abbot succeeds in making the public cynical … they turn off ‘policy’ or anything, from him and government but agree with his cynicism. he is corrosive and viral. the last week has been rare abbot free exposition of policy and issues – thanks to KR. there was also possibility of rudd back – hence polls today.this week shhould how sad our public life is generally – and not only because of labor division.

    tell it to Lindsay Tanner.
    This is why I despair at Crabbehead getting 6 figure sums from anyone for her BS scoreboard approach to ‘analysing’ politics.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:01 am

  16. slackboy72,

    A body funded by the government can be independent. Think Auditor-General.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:01 am

  17. i dont get it. rudd didn’t want to challenge this week – the schedule was manipulated and forced, as was vote of many of caucus. one can only imagine. more power to those to supported rudd. last time he went against julia he could hardly get a vote (for whatever reason) – now mid term 30% (and a lot more) voted against JG. this is huge gain. why are the gillard-tines celebrating. their glee is hollow – they would not have won a fair election. this was a repeat of 2010 – as rudd said – it only makes matters worse.

    by geoffrey on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:01 am

  18. I think it is very funny that you think I’m a fib Simthe.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:04 am

  19. 2.59pm: Neil Garnham QC, acting for the Metropolitan police, asks Paddick why he has no faith in the phone-hacking inquiry when it is supervised by the independent IPCC.

    Very snarky!

    Paddick reiterates his point that meetings between senior police officers and national newspaper editors should be formal and minuted.

    Brian Paddick is one cool customer. Well, he was Deputy Commissioner.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:05 am

  20. Geoff, chill out man. The only chance ALP has is with Rudd. Gillard will never win an election ever again.

    Do you need me to explain the chessboard for you?

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:06 am

  21. Like a government body taking forever to investigate a member of the government over CC transactions…

    I can see why you call yourself slackboy, slackboy.

    Fair Work Australia is not a Government body. It is an Independent Statutory Authority with investigative and quasi judicial functions.

    Note that word: Independent.

    The Government cannot direct it in any way. Just like they cannot direct the Courts.

    To call it a Government Body is, well, just plain slack.

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:06 am

  22. Do you need me to explain the chessboard for you?

    Battle Chess is good!

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:07 am

  23. TLBD,
    You probably gave the worst example you possibly could.
    ANAO or ABS I would accept.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:09 am

  24. Gillard will never win an election ever again.

    Do you need me to explain the chessboard for you?

    No, but perhaps you could explain to us why your crystal ball is better than anyone else’s?

    Did you get it from Nostradamus or something?

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:09 am

  25. Brian Paddick is throwing the crap back at the QC! Good man!

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:10 am

  26. Battle Chess is good!

    Sure is – I remember the Amiga version.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:10 am

  27. I think it is very funny that you think I’m a fib Simthe.

    Yes, I find that they bandy that ‘insult’ a lot around here for people having the temerity to disagree.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:11 am

  28. Err, the Auditor-General is the head of the ANAO.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:11 am

  29. I think it is very funny that you think I’m a fib Simthe.

    Well, perhaps I’m daft, but i thought only a fib would want to keep bashing the Labor party, especially now that Rudd has buried the hatchet.

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:11 am

  30. 3.09pm: Garnham asks Paddick when is it acceptable for a police officer to accept a drink – a cup of coffee – from a journalist.

    “Having coffee in a formal meeting it doesn’t really matter who pays for it,” he replies. “When it comes to wining and dining it puts people under obligations.”

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:12 am

  31. QC: If I may just finish.

    LJ: You certainly may do that.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:13 am

  32. Nostrils hasn’t been around past few days.

    Smithe, unfortunately we live in a country that has been brainwashed with right wing crap for too long. I did not understand at the time how Howard the cranky warmonger was able to win elections. It makes sense to me now.

    Which is also the reason that Abbott would win if the ALP were silly enough to keep Gillard at the helm. The die is set.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:14 am

  33. Hey, man, that was worth staying up for!

    T & P. Then, next witness.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:14 am

  34. I am a green smithe.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:15 am

  35. FWA is a government body as in it is government owned but as in operates in an independent body and is a part of the legal system.

    by mexicanbeemer on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:15 am

  36. We need green Smiths: the red and blue ones are so out of fashion.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:16 am

  37. And in more news of evil afoot:
    Russian Secret Service has foiled a plot to assassinate V Putin.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:16 am

  38. Err, the Auditor-General is the head of the ANAO.

    Sorry, for some reason I read attorney general in your original comment.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:18 am

  39. We need green Smiths

    :) :) :)

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:18 am

  40. radguy

    i agree- i implied what u said and has said it earlier tonight (last night). there is a dialectic of events unplaying which are entirely predictable and fascinating, esp because noone seems to be in control – i.e. unintended consequences. i agree only one person will leader to next election, KR. and i’m glad now he didn’t get up today – probably an early election. let julia completely her projects, then KR can stand up and boast of seven years achievement and get the third term – everything makes sense.

    by geoffrey on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:22 am

  41. Now, Lord Prescott.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:22 am

  42. Ooh!

    3.15pm: We have a report on the jailing of a private detective accused of computer hacking in a completely unrelated case:

    A private detective at the centre of allegations that computers were hacked for the News of the World has been jailed for illegal “blagging” in a separate case.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:23 am

  43. From Tom Watson:

    Lin Homer has responded but not confirmed whether the HMRC will investigate cash payments at News International

    h­ttp://www.tom-watson.co.uk/2012/02/lin-homer-has-responded-but-not-confirmed-whether-the-hmrc-will-investigate-cash-payments-at-news-international

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:24 am

  44. Smithe, unfortunately we live in a country that has been brainwashed with right wing crap for too long. I did not understand at the time how Howard the cranky warmonger was able to win elections. It makes sense to me now.

    Which is also the reason that Abbott would win if the ALP were silly enough to keep Gillard at the helm. The die is set.

    Yeah rather than comfortable and relaxed you need to keep people scared and angry.
    Scared about their mortgages and refugees, angry at government.

    This is why the Liberal heirarchy don’t want some moderate like Turnbull engaging in a narrative that’s above the base concerns of most individuals.

    If Abbott has been successful you can lay the key to his talking down our present plight in this country. That’s why so many are pessimistic despite near full employment.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:26 am

  45. Actually scratch that comment about Abbott winning an election, why bother when all they need to do is change leaders – no election required. I hear Hockey tweeted requesting fibs to submit ideas about climate change policy.

    How would middle Australia think about Rudd being considered DR Death from his time in the PS? This is probably another one of those silly comments that works against the sprayers.

    I quite like the idea of a good hearted Appleby running the show. Would take no crap.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:26 am

  46. radguy,

    Christina Applegate for LotO!

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:28 am

  47. 3.22pm: Lord Prescott has taken the stand.

    ‘sHonour asks him to put it back.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:29 am

  48. Christina Applegate for LotO!

    Yes, Kelly Bundy would be better than any of them!

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:31 am

  49. Smithe, unfortunately we live in a country that has been brainwashed with right wing crap for too long.

    No argument with you there at all.

    I did not understand at the time how Howard the cranky warmonger was able to win elections. It makes sense to me now.

    Me too. He had a little help from friends in low places, like Rupert Murdoch and his empire. He was also a master of playing racist dog-whistles, something that regrettably still resonates with a certain sector of our community (including many people who should, by rights, be solid Labor voters).

    Which is also the reason that Abbott would win if the ALP were silly enough to keep Gillard at the helm. The die is set.

    You see, that’s where we part company.

    Gillard has managed to stitch together a minority government, Legislate to put in place a whole raft of important and long-overdue reforms and to stand-up to the most relentlessly negative press campaign I can recall. (And I can recall quite a lot – right back to the ’72 election. Hell, they treated Gough better than this in ’75).

    To have managed all this in the face of such odds and while keeping her cool makes her, in my book, one of the Labor Greats. Who can deny that the NBN, the carbon Scheme, The MRRT are every bit as significant and in the long term interests of the country as anything Gough or Keating managed?

    Yet you say she’s unelectable against Abbott in 2013?

    Fiddlesticks, says I.

    She’s already trounced him once. Sure, she’s had some bad polling. So what? It’s trending back to Labor (now 53/47, even in the teeth of a truly feral press) and with 18 or 20 months to go, I’d rather be in her shoes (with all the benefits of incumbency) than Abbot’s, wouldn’t you?

    Changing leaders in the face of (or purely because of) bad polling isn’t the answer.

    NSW Labor tried that and look what happened to them.

    by smithe on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:31 am

  50. If Mr Uhlmann is sleeping on a park bench he’ll be getting wet very shortly.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 2:33 am

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