Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

4059 Responses

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  1. Do you think Bob Carr would really do it?
    He’s on a nice tax payer funded gig as an ex-Premier of NSW.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:21 am

  2. Bob Carr does one thing well. Talk

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:21 am

  3. Swan can’t communicate? You have got to be joking. He and Conroy are the two best hitters in the party.

    Fair dinkum Bludgers, keep comments realistic, I know it’s difficult, Evan is around :lol:

    *gotta go*

    by Centre on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:21 am

  4. Need I add that he was a tremendous Premier of my state during the 1990s & the early 2000s.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:22 am

  5. Son of foro @ 1332

    To say she broke her word is a lie and you know it. You also would be best served to desist in lying.

    It is you who persists in lying.
    The agreement was quite explicit and left no wriggle room.
    She may have done her very best, but unfortunately that agreement was worded to require that she succeed in getting a majority to support legislation. Mission impossible, but she was silly enough to sign up to it at the time.

    So STOP LYING.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:22 am

  6. JG & SC presser in 5 minutes (ABC95),

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:24 am

  7. WA AMA wants penalties for women who have homebirths when they have a high risk pregnancy.
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13032305/anger-over-calls-to-criminalise-homebirth/

    Forcible detention in hospital? Forced caesarians? A fine for giving birth at home?

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:25 am

  8. geoffrey@ # 1275
    ”there were many around here last night who agreed with comment – i am not alone
    julie sets to record for whiteanting as sitting legitimate PM in 2010 “

    There is one fact that people like geoffrey cannot deny. Gillard released all journalists from any committment to keeping quiet any leaks she may have provided to them during that period. Not one came forward. She didn’t leak once.

    by Gary on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:25 am

  9. B Carr is not a machine man and his “white” and “man” credentials have also been challenged.
    Hewson disliked that he didn’t drive and had no children
    Brogdan said he had a mail order Asian wife.

    He certainly knows how to annoy libs and his talents would be wasted in FM
    Anyway I am sure Arbib’s successor has already been chosen well before he resigned.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:26 am

  10. Cheeseman, like Thompson, is a Kiwi. Does that explain anything?

    Was Bowen initially in charge of grocery/fuel watch? Thought Emerson was.

    Immigration is a poisoned chalice for any minister.

    by Toorak Toff on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:27 am

  11. Carr into Foreign Affairs?
    He wanted the job back in the late 1980s/early 1990s.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:27 am

  12. Confessions
    Midwives taking part in high risk home births have been charged with manslaughter. I am sure that parents are at risk of similar charges.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:29 am

  13. Bob Carr for the senate vacancy? Madness I’d say. Whilst he was smart enough to get out whilst the gettin was good he is still tainted by the NSW government he left behind. He was the genius behind government as media management and the originator of 20 announcements of the same train line that still hasn’t been built. Also too close to Hawker. We’ve just gone through a blood letting to rid ourselves of that crap and now some Sussex St genius wants to give the government another injection of it, and in FA as well? Crazy talk. Go with the investment banker.

    Yes Victoria I think Leigh and Kelly would make good additions to the ministry. Bradbury is obviously being talked about too. Need to promote at least one woman too I suspect so maybe a Catherine King? Maybe look at reinstating Elliot as another bridge building exercise with the Rudd rump? Will be interesting to see how she goes. Just hope this Bob Carr talk is rubbish.

    by ratsak on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:30 am

  14. I know 64 is the new 44 but Bob Carr seems a tad mature to be kicking off a Federal career.

    Plus he is anti bill of rights, pro-American and has been living the corporate consultant life style for 7 years.

    by shellbell on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:30 am

  15. I am always a little dismayed when suggestions that a seat in parliament be bestowed upon anyone by the party, presumably the leading figures in the party.

    This is part of what ails the ALP. What ever happened to proper pre-selection processes?

    Seats in parliament should not be seen as gifts to be bestowed by a small cabal on anyone. It is yet another erosion of the value of being a party member and able to influence pre-selections.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:31 am

  16. Centre @ # 1349
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    ”Swan can’t communicate? You have got to be joking. He and Conroy are the two best hitters in the party.”

    Cannot agree with you there Centre. Conroy is well above average in the communication stakes but I am afraid that Swan cant get a grade better than average IMO. However, having said that they both are exceptional Minister and are across their brief. The result of their hard work can be seen in the success of the economy (in respect of Swan) and the Communication area (in respect of Conroy).

    The best “hitter” is Albo with Gillard Combet and Shorten and Roxon not far behind.

    by Ratsars on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:31 am

  17. http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/windsor-backs-pm-abbott-a-weakling/story-e6frfku0-1226283695627

    Windsor backs PM, Abbott 'a weakling'
    AAP
    February 28, 2012
    10:42AM

    INDEPENDENT MP Tony Windsor has labelled Opposition Leader Tony Abbott a weakling, while reaffirming his support for the Gillard Government.

    Mr Abbott challenged Mr Windsor and fellow independent Rob Oakeshott to state publicly whether they still support Prime Minister Julia Gillard following her victory in a leadership wrangle with Kevin Rudd yesterday.

    .............

    Asked if Mr Abbott or any Coalition MPs were leaning on him to support a no-confidence motion in the Government he replied, chuckling: "A little weakling like that wouldn't lean on me".

    more in the article

    by Leroy on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:31 am

  18. OC @ 1358

    Confessions
    Midwives taking part in high risk home births have been charged with manslaughter. I am sure that parents are at risk of similar charges.

    And so they bloody well should be!

    Now, what can be done about that bunch of anti-science nongs campaigning against vaccination and undermining public health?

    Fair enough if they and their deluded followers were quarantined from the rest of the community, but they are not and they represent a risk to others such as babies too young to be vaccinated.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:35 am

  19. that agreement was worded to require that she succeed in getting a majority to support legislation. Mission impossible, but she was silly enough to sign up to it at the time.

    Wrong. The wording is “seek to legislate”.

    She may have done her very best

    You have just admitted she did not break her word.

    by Son of foro on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:35 am

  20. I am always a little dismayed when suggestions that a seat in parliament be bestowed upon anyone by the party, presumably the leading figures in the party.

    This is part of what ails the ALP. What ever happened to proper pre-selection processes?

    The manner that a casual senate vacancy is filled is an artifact of the law itself and the manner in which such a vacancy appears.

    To try to paint this universal mechanism as some sort of internal problem specific to the current ALP is ridiculous!

    by Kersebleptes on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:36 am

  21. Will Labor become a two carr family?

    by deflationite on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:37 am

  22. Midwives taking part in high risk home births have been charged with manslaughter.

    Really? Sounds very extreme to me.

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:40 am

  23. Kersebleptes 1366

    The manner that a casual senate vacancy is filled is an artifact of the law itself and the manner in which such a vacancy appears.

    To try to paint this universal mechanism as some sort of internal problem specific to the current ALP is ridiculous!

    You are right in a sense, but also wrong.

    The law prescribes how the casual vacancy is filled, but it is up to the party how it chooses it’s nominee.

    The ALP has well established pre-selection processes which are increasingly ignored to parachute in high profile candidates. This is what I object to.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:41 am

  24. JG presser now

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:44 am

  25. ajm

    I really don’t get the “Swan can’t communicate, therefore he’s no good” mantra. The disadvantage of a Treasurer who “cut’s through” is that they suck oxygen from the PM.

    But they add to the government. Keating and Costello, both excellent communicators, certainly helped their governments. Swan is hopeless at putting a convincing case for a policy, with the first mining tax a prime example.

    by triton on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:46 am

  26. If the wording is “seek to legislate” then it is clear that The PM did not break her word.

    by ___cog___ on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:46 am

  27. Gillard now at better odds of being PM at next election ($1.28), than Abbott being Liberal leader ($1.36). Second favorite for the ALP is Smith ($4), and then Rudd ($5). Turnbull is second fav for libs at $3.75

    by Benji on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:49 am

  28. Goodness gracious not another prime minister not delivering her election promises.

    Does she have core promises and non-core promises.

    And she wants to implement a carbon tax. We survived the Liberals introduction of a GST and have learnt to minimise its impact unless we are self employed filling in BAS statements every 3 months, which has provided a boom employment opportunities for suburban accountants and book keepers.

    Andrew Wilke is sounding as much a petulant, flaky, media tart as Kevin Rudd. Gawd I would hate to be the Prime Minister tip toeing through the egos!

    by billie on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:49 am

  29. bemused,

    While I certainly see the point of having the set list of precedence decided by the membership for these relatively rare occasions, I also see the point of the leadership having good freedom of action in responding to these rare situations.

    Both are good and useful principles, but will never co-exist harmoniously. At different times, though, both will be needed.

    by Kersebleptes on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:50 am

  30. That’s big Bob Carr into the senate but will they give him FA?

    I thought it was Rudd’s supporters who were getting FA

    by Tom Hawkins on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:50 am

  31. vexnews ‏ @vexnews Close
    Senior sources tell VEXNEWS that reports of Bob Carr's appointment to Foreign Ministry are "laughable" #auspol
    11:49 AM - 28 Feb 12

    by Leroy on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:50 am

  32. Oh, sorry, FA stands for foreign affairs apparently ;-)

    by Tom Hawkins on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:50 am

  33. TH

    Good one!!

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:51 am

  34. Son of foro @ 1365

    Wrong. The wording is “seek to legislate”.

    Bit hard to do that without putting forward legislation.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:52 am

  35. http://www.vexnews.com/2012/02/pass-the-oranges-its-half-time-in-australian-politics-and-its-just-beginning-to-get-interesting/

    PASS THE ORANGES: It’s half-time in Australian politics, and it’s just beginning to get interesting
    By VEXNEWS ⋅ February 28, 2012

    by Leroy on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:53 am

  36. Gillard now at better odds of being PM at next election ($1.28), ....

    $1.50 can be obtained it just depends on where one looks

    by Dr John on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:56 am

  37. Kersebleptes @ 1375

    bemused,

    While I certainly see the point of having the set list of precedence decided by the membership for these relatively rare occasions, I also see the point of the leadership having good freedom of action in responding to these rare situations.

    Both are good and useful principles, but will never co-exist harmoniously. At different times, though, both will be needed.

    Senate vacancies should be easy.

    The ALP usually runs a full ticket of candidates so it would be a case of next one up. The only issue would be whether from the pre-selection involving the senator vacating a seat or the most recent pre-selection if they were not the same.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:57 am

  38. Bit hard to do that without putting forward legislation.

    You seriously want that statement out in public?

    Listen, I’ll give you that wriggle room you are so keen on: you were either mistaken or you were lying. I’d recommend you take the former, but that of course is completely up to you.

    by Son of foro on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:58 am

  39. No leadershit questions so far. Seems the trouncing of Rudd in the ballot has forced journos to think about something else.

    Here’s hoping it lasts.

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:05 pm

  40. Well the next person on the ticket was Anne Murnain

    http://www.mypolitician.com.au/new-south-wales/senate/anne-murnain/

    Behind her was Fiona Seaton, like Robert McLelland, a Turner Freeman lawyer – she specialises in asbestos litigation

    by shellbell on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:06 pm

  41. Hmm. Was Gillard trying to say she doesn’t want Carr?

    by triton on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:09 pm

  42. Stephen Conroy is absolutely brilliant in his portfolio.

    by adam abdool on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:11 pm

  43. shellbell @ 1386
    Neither is known to me but I am not from NSW.

    If they are not good candidates then that is probably a product of pre-selections not being taken seriously enough and attracting the best candidates.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:13 pm

  44. triton:

    What was Grattan’s question, to which the PM said she didn’t know what she was referring to?

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:15 pm

  45. Sky News presser… Despite a long and convoluted question, Gillard doesn’t have a clue what Michelle Grattan is talking about.

    Join the club Julia.

    Best smack down in years, maybe EVAH.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:16 pm

  46. And another thing, Malcolm Turnbull comes nowhere near Stephen Conroy in terms of knowledge in the communications field. Maybe this is because MT has roped himself in trying to sell an inferior product.

    by adam abdool on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:16 pm

  47. Ha ha JG has dismissed a question from Grattan with absolute contempt.

    “I have no idea what you are talking about. Next question”.

    Poor Michelle, so that’s why she hates JG.

    by Henry on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:17 pm

  48. Yeah what WAS Grattan referring to? “A minister in caucus vetoed Mark Arbib staying in cabinet” or something?

    Ooh dear, some extra bile coming up from Michelle with Fran tomorrow.

    by Henry on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:19 pm

  49. Didn’t watch Q&A last night – not that I do much these days – might pick it up on iView, but by the same token, have not seen any reports here.

    Was it the usual Jones – “listen to moi” stuff?

    by Tricot on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:19 pm

  50. Contemptible press release from Scott Morrison, lost in yesterday’s events.
    http://www.scottmorrison.com.au/info/pressrelease.aspx?id=830

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:21 pm

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