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Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard's winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning's Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at t

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Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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4059 comments

4,059 thoughts on “Gillard 71, Rudd 31

  1. ltep

    How does this compare with the margin of victory of previous leadership ballots?

  2. confessions

    Latham points to previous two-strike challengers (Fraser, Keating, Beazely) and notes the symmetry in that they all increased their margins by around a dozen 2nd time around. Rudd would need to pick up 23 in a 2nd challenge, which Latham says is in la-la land.

  3. DavidWH

    It’s still pretty comprehensive.

  4. kakuru

    If nothing else, this should extirpate the meme that Rudd was ‘knifed’ by Gillard. This was a contest, fair and square.

  5. MsAdventure

    Nobody abstained despite speculation

  6. gusface

    well

    now

    sadly, i think this isnt the end of it

  7. confessions

    Further Rudd destabilisation would shift more votes away from him.

    Rudd is not coming back.

  8. Dan Gulberry

    William
    [coming in at the higher end of market expectations. ]
    At the higher end for whom? Kev or Jules?

  9. Patrick Bateman

    So what does the party do with him now? How can they control him and stop any further white-anting and destabilisation?

  10. Dario

    ‘reportedly reports’

    I like it 🙂

  11. confessions

    ltep:

    Speers says the PM has got the highest vote and Rudd the lowest challenger vote in any leadership spill.

    Is this true?

  12. triton

    Latham has added more to this in 15 minutes than everyone else combined today.

  13. This little black duck

    Error 503 Service Unavailable

    Service Unavailable

    Guru Meditation:

    XID: 1003734839

    Varnish cache server

    Crikey fail!

  14. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [Greg Jericho ‏ @GrogsGamut

    lolz RT @TommyTudehope: Someone should go and console Peter Hartcher.
    5m Le Grace]

  15. The Finnigans

    [How does this compare with the margin of victory of previous leadership ballots?]

    The biggest EVER

  16. William Bowe

    Apologies for the current comments shutdown, which is being done for bandwidth management purposes. Will be back on shortly.

  17. This little black duck

    10:58 – 14:20 bandwidth management?!

  18. This little black duck

    Slipper not tolerating any nonsense from the Noaltion.

  19. This little black duck

    Sophie!

  20. CTar1

    Craig Emerson trusted.

  21. This little black duck

    I don’t think the PM is entirely unprepared for these questions.

  22. deflationite

    I reckon -13 is just another way of saying 31.

  23. Graeme Orr

    Let’s quickly bury the myth of ‘the biggest margin ever’. Even in a caucus vote of only 88, Doc Evatt defeated Tom Burke by 68 to 20. There may be others.

    (I admire some of Gillard’s qualities enough to refrain from mentioning how successful Evatt’s leadership proved…)

  24. This little black duck

    BobKat – 30 seconds. Which will finish first?

  25. This little black duck

    Julia is responding to the SSO.

  26. This little black duck

    BishopJ got sat down for not staying on topic.

    Truss says “Outrageous!” and gets booted for his trouble.

    Pyne POOs and looses big time.

  27. Boerwar

    It’s the Think Big – Gerbil conspiracy. We thirty-oners want the steak.

  28. Diogenes

    [Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. ]

    They obviously didn’t poll too many PBers.

  29. shellbell

    This is like muscial threads.

    The only Essential I can see is from last week

  30. William Bowe

    Apologies yet again. Crikey’s new servers, I am told, “arrived last week and IT are beginning the process of transferring our site soon”.

  31. imacca

    Ahh, back up. Well, QT situation normal. Fib/Nats getting tossed, and Bishop being a fool.

    Julia tearing them new orifice’s at the moment.

  32. Diogenes

    Any news on the reshuffle?

    I heard 10 seconds of Rudd’s speech. He was listing all his friends who were other Foreign Ministers.

    I had to switch off. Some people just don’t get it.

  33. This little black duck

    William,

    No one is blaming you.

    New servers might do the job. Great!

  34. shellbell

    Found it thanks. Any thoughts, William, why it goes south while the others go north

  35. Think Big

    Damn Coorey – he had me all excited! No steak for me then haha.

    Well done BW and others.

  36. This little black duck

    Methinks no more Ms Nice Guy.

  37. Diogenes

    BW

    31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket

    On the money again!

  38. Bar Bar

    William – the latest Neilsen state by state breakdown shows marked improvement in Labor vote only in Qld and NSW (compared to the last on Feb 5) which indicates the respondants were dreaming of Rudd return. Interestingly there was a sharp swing to coalition in Vic as respondants apparently thought Julia would lose! Chances are the Newspoll quarterly will show the same.

    Essential poll seems more realistic and considered. Why would this be? Because it is on online poll?

  39. This little black duck

    Pyne ignored once again.

  40. Boerwar

    The press response was generally good. ‘The Australian’ used the term ‘rout’. But, but, but… It reported a Rudd backer wtte, it ain’t over… And that Mr Rudd had refused to rule out being drafted.

    It struck me while reading the coverage that the journos don’t actually like Mr Rudd all that much. But that might be a lowly punter’s projection.

  41. imacca

    Albo up and firing.

    Dummy Spit. LOL!

  42. shellbell

    it will be interesting to see if the emphasis within foreign affairs changes with a new FM appointed

  43. zoomster

    Diog

    I was waiting for him to thank the cameraman….

  44. Aguirre

    Abbott gave a better rant in his SSO speech than he did to the media prior to QT. But it’s all been swamped in the mayhem that followed.

    The best they could do is try on a rehash of all the comment made during the week. Which we heard, though it looked like Bishop was just getting into her stride there when Slipper slapped her down. That done, Gillard gave a good forward-oriented response, and then Albanese attempted to go ballistic.

    I’m not sure we learnt very much, least of all what the Coalition are actually offering the voting public. We may never know that. They want the carnival to go on much more desperately than Rudd ever would.

  45. The Big Ship

    Is Crikey now operating within optimum parameters? The steam engine must have blown a piston …

    It was mentioned prior to the blackout that Mark Latham provided more keen insight into the ALP party room (despite his absence from there for years) than all of the other gibbering media heads combined.

    Kevin Rudd is finished as a serious contender for the top job on the caucus numbers revealed this morning, at least in this current Parliament, but the usual suspects (Hartcher, Speers, Sheridan, et al) are already talking up another challenge, even as they are all still standing around in the corridors tweeting away like parrots, or sitting on their pontificating arses in a warm studio thousands of kilometres from Canberra. No amount of evidence to the contrary is going to sway these anti-Gillardites from their perpetual and incessant tirades against the viability of the PM continuing in office, let alone being competitive at the next election due in 2013.

    What has escaped some of these alleged political experts in the media, and was manifestly apparent to Mark Latham despite his jaundiced view of ALP politics, is that Rudd and Gillard are mere work colleagues, not friends or lovers, and don’t need to have a close working relationship to co-exist as effective MPS in this Parliament. Almost everyone can point to people they work with who they do not necessarily like, but one gets on with the work that one is paid to do towards the common end. Why is this so difficult for most journos to believe, even despite Rudd’s known political ambition? Even the most obtuse politician can eventually see the writing on the wall, if it is written in big enough letters.

    The task now for the ALP and for Julia Gillard is, to quote Abraham Lincoln, to bind up the nation’s (and the party’s) wounds, and with charity for all and malice towards none, to move beyond the recent rancour and concentrate on the real danger to our nation’s future – the dire potential for the egregious Tony Abbott to be our nation’s next PM.

  46. mari

    [Diogenes
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 3:14 pm | Permalink
    BW

    31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket

    On the money again!]
    I was after the cutlets but was told that only sausages were left on Twitter, I had to make a big decision were they long thin ones or short fat ones, a lot of difference the reply was not for this genteel site, last thing I heard was I had the “chuck” steak, no more hours of laborious figuring out numbers for me , not worth it! Chuck steak

  47. my say

    Heaps went to franks re break down

  48. dave

    Why doesn’t Labor suspend standing orders themselves and force debate on policy – day after day after day and exposure abbott’s lack of policy?

  49. Andrew

    I think its appropriate that BW wins the sweep, as it was BW I think that first talked of the Rudd whiteanting, when many of us refused to believe it

  50. rosa

    BIG SHIP. I agree with you that I think Rudd is done this parliament (and might even be eyeing the job of reformist oppostion leader – I kid you not. However, as to Julia’s immediate future, I suggest that you read John Black in the back page of the AFR (no link, I’m afraid). He lays out a timetable for the next leadership coup.

  51. ratsak

    Well let’s see if I can get this up from 11am

    Julia Gillard 1 – rats, leakers, and their media enablers 0

    Oh and poroti I picked 71-31 in my post last night but it got missed. (in case there’s a chop in it)

  52. scorpio

    zoomster,

    [ Diog

    I was waiting for him to thank the cameraman…. ]

    Couldn’t do that because it’s Joe! Can’t bowl, can’t bat! 😉

  53. Boerwar

    Ms Gillard now has what Mr Abbott clearly lacks:

    (1) The overwhelming support of her party room.
    (2) The support of the majority of representatives in both houses of parliament.
    (3) Increasing trend in support for her party’s 2PP in the polling.
    (4) More votes than Mr Abbott in the last election.

    I wonder how Mr Abbott will cope with the blowtorch to the belly as the heat heads in his direction?

  54. This little black duck

    Tonight’s delectation on Leveson:

    Former deputy prime minister John Prescott is due to appear on Monday alongside Sue Akers, the Met deputy assistant commissioner in charge of the current investigations into alleged phone hacking, computer hacking and illegal payments by journalists to police and other public officials. Last month Prescott won an admission by the Met in the high court that they were wrong not to have informed victims their phones had been hacked.

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/24/leveson-inquiry-stephenson-yates

  55. Andrew

    Amazing that Abbott would refer to the 1/3 that didnt vote for Gillard, when 1/2 didnt vote for him. I assume no one in the MSM pointed that out

  56. lefty e

    Im moving a spill against Crikey’s servers~!

    Pretty good short-term and long-term result for the ALP I feel. Keeps this minority govt stable, a very solid win for Gillard as leader, but Rudd has done enough at 31 to turn to if needed in 2013.

    The only thing that depresses me is the view – oft expresssed – that the ALP is set against Rudd regardless of how bad the polls get.

    I for one find that unacceptable – theyd give us Abbott rather than allow Rudd back. I still hope that electoral wisdom instead prevails if the hour of need comes. Fortunately, A third of caucus seem to realise that avenue should be kept open.

    Moreover, it seems Shorten would probably let Gillard lose rather than challenge this term. He probably calculates (rightly) that Abbott will be terrible and get booted in 3 or 6 years. Again, I find that unacceptable, not to play to win at every election.

    Otherwise, Im happy to move at this point myself, in the spirit etc. I actually think the whole thing has been worthwhile, for reasons stated earlier. Albo has certainly helped matters, and considerably reduced the bitterness.

  57. Diogenes

    TBS

    [The task now for the ALP and for Julia Gillard is, to quote Abraham Lincoln, to bind up the nation’s (and the party’s) wounds, and with charity for all and malice towards none]

    Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions.

    Is Gillard going to do that?

  58. mari

    [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink
    Ms Gillard now has what Mr Abbott clearly lacks:

    (1) The overwhelming support of her party room.
    (2) The support of the majority of representatives in both houses of parliament.
    (3) Increasing trend in support for her party’s 2PP in the polling.
    (4) More votes than Mr Abbott in the last election.

    I wonder how Mr Abbott will cope with the blowtorch to the belly as the heat heads in his direction?]

    Hi fellow smart tipper, congratulations, but poroti seems to have disappeared has he taken the cutlets and cut and run?
    Agree with your points as listed
    Us ‘bumboat’ people stick together

  59. Andrew

    BW i think we can guarantee the MSM will apply no such blowtorch, which is why he can talk about the PM not having the support for 1/3 her party room, when he was only elected by 1/2 plus one.

  60. victoria

    Boerwar

    Congratulations. Well done!

  61. zoomster

    Diog

    not sure how she’ll play it. I find it interesting that she’s apparently in no rush to fill FM position & has made clear Emerson temporary.

  62. This little black duck

    I think Sophie was a naughty girl just then. Albo took offence at something she said. Butter-wouldn’t-melt-in-her-mouth said “‘Mensa’ isn’t offensive”. Draw your own conclusions.

  63. Centre

    Congratulations to the Labor Party and Prime Minister Gillard on a fantastic leadership ballot victory. What does this mean in politics?

    Two things:

    1. The end of K.Rudd and any future leadership speculation of the Labor Party.

    2. The end of the idiotic rantings and ravings of Thomas Paine and Evan who now should ZIP and free us heaps of PB bandwidth. 🙂

  64. Gary

    Bloody blondie and Britney are hard to listen to. Everything is good for the oppoaition and bad for the government as far as they are concerned.

  65. This little black duck

    I assume no one in the MSM pointed that out

    The PM did.

  66. This little black duck

    I assume no one in the MSM pointed that out

    The PM did.

  67. mari

    [Denise ‏ @SpudBenBean Close
    @lapuntadelfin @Jansel17 Although I think he meant Mark Simkin (ABC Canberra). Phil Hudson (NewsLtd) is married to Lyndal Curtis (ABC).]

    I didn’t know that , taking about Rudd’s confidants, and Lyndal Curtis is married to Phil Hudson

  68. Gorgeous Dunny

    Comments back at last! Well no meat tray for me 21 against 31.

    Even the media is reporting it as a thumping win, which it was. Hawker is likely on the outer now – fancy trying to run a primaries campaign! His former company lives on, however. Michael Gleeson for Hawker Britain gave a very good account of things on ABC.

    Media trivia is not over, but the most troublesome part of it is. They should have enough clear air to get a bit of positive news out there. It might be a small caucus but Gillard has increased her authority because of that win, and it shows in her confidence.

    My best guess is a fairly minimal reshuffle to make sure all injuries are healed. Rudd’s gone and probably McClelland (his position is surely untenable in saying the government can’t win under Gillard.) The other Ruddites are probably safe but may be shuffled around slightly.

    Despite backing Rudd, Bowen probably deserves a break from Immigration. Maybe he could get another can of worms with Water and the MDB. Burke maybe Trade or Emergency Services. A hard hitter like O’Connor could take immigration and allow one of the newer young stars into the Education support role he had.

  69. Tom Hawkins

    [The only thing that depresses me is the view – oft expresssed – that the ALP is set against Rudd regardless of how bad the polls get.

    I for one find that unacceptable – theyd give us Abbott rather than allow Rudd back.]

    IMO the last part should read:

    [ – they’d give us another candidate rather than allow Rudd back.]

    I think if Rudd keeps his nose clean and heals some wounds he might get another crack but not necessarily at a time of his own choosing. He now has to hope the party calls him.

  70. Honest Bastard

    Bob Brown publicly advising the PM on how to reshuffle her cabinet, including suggesting a new portfolio – the Minister for Something Else – for Martin Ferguson.

  71. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    That Hawker advisor guy is on ABCnews24 and he is blaming the Ministers threatening to not serve under Rudd. He is still criticising and whining and banging on about Rudd’s popularity. It is time to give this guy the boot.

    As if I have to tell you, Crikey, having Pollbludger down today was a major major #FAIL.

  72. Diogenes

    SA ex numbers man Chris Schacht was pretty good this am. He said Rudd wouldn’t do anything from the backbenches. He’ll wait and watch the polls.

    If Gillards polling improves, leadership won’t be an issue. If the polls don’t improve in 3-6 months, caucus will get nervous and look around at its options which would be Rudd or the Third Man.

  73. Boerwar

    Mr Lincoln could afford to take a risk. As POTUS he did not face a leadership spill. The possible exception was the ‘Little Napoleon’ who was the people’s princess of his day. In some curious parallels with his latter day PP, the general was paralyzed into non-decision- making but talked up a storm. The foot soldiers and the public loved him. Oh, and he toyed with the notion of a coup.

  74. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Education needs an experienced and strong hand at the wheel.

  75. the spectator

    [The end of K.Rudd and any future leadership speculation of the Labor Party.

    2. The end of the idiotic rantings and ravings of Thomas Paine and Evan who now should ZIP and free us heaps of PB bandwidth.]

    Centre I believe you will be incorrect on both these points.

  76. lefty e

    I just hope that option is left open Tom. Obviously I accept its “last resort” for 2/3rds of caucus.

    But frankly, if its that or Abbott – it should be a no brainer. I take some comfort that quite of lot of caucus feels that way already.

  77. shellbell

    I think O’Connor was disappointing as Home Affairs minister combining with McLlelland to make a weak Law & Justice Department which has impoved a lot under Roxon.

    O’Connor was, among other things, responsible for privacy, which he appears to have interpreted as keeping the issue of privacy private since the Law Reform Commission report (now 3 years old) gather dust without being released.

  78. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    DIO,
    Are you trying to say the ALP will do this again in three to six months? Have you been inhaling anaesthetic fumes?

  79. triton

    TLM must be terribly disappointed that, so far, his man has indicated no intention to do his bidding and wreck the place and bring down the government.

  80. Gary

    [The end of K.Rudd and any future leadership speculation of the Labor Party.]
    Sky claim it’s over for Rudd.

  81. Danny Lewis

    [I think Sophie was a naughty girl just then. Albo took offence at something she said. Butter-wouldn’t-melt-in-her-mouth said “‘Mensa’ isn’t offensive”. Draw your own conclusions.]

    I think it is a fair assumption that whatever offensive word or phrase rhymes with or sounds like “mensa” is what she said. Maybe she made a joke about the PM being pre-menstral.

    Wouldn’t put it past her at all. Lowest of the low, is our Sophie.

  82. Diogenes

    BW

    [Oh, and he toyed with the notion of a coup.]

    Yes, there was a bit of talk of a coup before Antietam.

    Little Napoleon was even worse than Rudd as a narcissist. His letters to his wife were just breathtakingly arrogant.

  83. lefty e

    I agree its time for Hawker to shut up now. I say that as a noted pro-Rudd Bludger.

    (well a GRN, with an active and rather one-eyed interest in the the ALP leadership question.)

  84. Diogenes

    Puffy

    Schacht, an ex Labor Senator and numbers man, said it might happen if the polls didn’t improve.

  85. Centre

    Rudd is finished, there is absolutely no way that he will ever lead the ALP again.

    Rudd now has the record of the worst ever modern day (since the Whitlam era) ballot defeat in political history.

    It was a massacre!

    Move on to next leadership spill, that of the :mrgreen: in about Nov 2012. 😎

  86. rosa

    DIOGENES – I doubt it will take 6 months. The trend will be up, or the trend will be down.
    Rudd will now sit on the back bench as quiet as a church mouse. He won’t talk to his supporters (he won’t need to); he won’t talk to anyone about the leadership (maybe not even Therese). Like a smart politician, he will just sit and wait for one of the Praetorian guard to make a move.
    And, if all else fails, he will be back after the next election as a reforming Opposition Leader (sorry boys, chuckie ain’t going anywhere)

  87. lefty e

    Keep it humble guys: As well as the widest margin, Gillard also got the *narrowest* ballot margin for a first-term PM.

    Unusual times. Precedents arent that helpful.

  88. the spectator

    [Mr Lincoln could afford to take a risk. As POTUS he did not face a leadership spill.]

    But interestingly the position for Lincoln in April prior to the November election in 1864 was looking dire and he was personally conceding defeat.

  89. Lyne Lady

    tlbd 66
    albo despises her

  90. Danny Lewis

    [TLM must be terribly disappointed that, so far, his man has indicated no intention to do his bidding and wreck the place and bring down the government.]

    Wow. I wasn’t aware that Evan wielded so much power.

    All hail King Evan! 😉

  91. Gary

    [And, if all else fails, he will be back after the next election as a reforming Opposition Leader (sorry boys, chuckie ain’t going anywhere)]
    I doubt it. He wouldn’t get past Shorten.

  92. bemused

    rosa @ 53

    BIG SHIP. I agree with you that I think Rudd is done this parliament (and might even be eyeing the job of reformist oppostion leader – I kid you not. However, as to Julia’s immediate future, I suggest that you read John Black in the back page of the AFR (no link, I’m afraid). He lays out a timetable for the next leadership coup.

    Is this what you refer to?
    h­ttp://www.afr.com/p/opinion/loyalty_not_to_be_counted_on_Pcj9Dv60FX6zATpzZQeoWO

  93. triton

    I think there’ll be a lot of resistance to a leadership move after this. Members will take a lot more convincing than would have been the case had this brutal challenge not occurred.

  94. Greensborough Growler

    Diogs,

    “Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions”.

    Lincoln was shot!

  95. the spectator

    Rudd is finished it is all over. these are always the cries of the ever certain MSM who never have an eye to history. I believe they we writing him off back in 2010 as never be able to come back aswell.

  96. This little black duck

    Lyne Lady,

    Albo is not alone.

  97. rosa

    DIOGENES – But it appears to me, looking from the outside, that we saw a stunning display of factional discipline today in the party-room. Why wouldn’t that repeat itself if a heavy from the right stepped forward to challenge? Why would Rudd pull many more supporters? Would the terror of electoral oblivion be enough? I’m really starting to doubt that? The networks seem too tight.

  98. zoidlord

    I’m still trying to figure out why Rudd did this knowing the outcome?

    He should of shut his mouth up and waited for QLD election, If Bligh loses, he could have had the top job there.

  99. shellbell

    lefty e

    As a GRN, do you think greens will target Albanese in Grandlyer on basis of his support for the less environmentally robust Rudd than the PM? I got a hint Bob Brown with his dig at Martin Ferguson may be thinking along those lines

  100. Boerwar

    There is a good case for arguing that Mr Rudd would make an excellent LOTO, but a poor PM.

    Not sure if this has happened previously in Oz politics.

  101. rosa

    BEMUSED – Yes, thanks.

  102. warwick

    Essential Media – 45/55 – outlier?

  103. Centre

    There is no way that many who voted for Rudd would even entertain the idea of Rudd ever leading the party again.

    71 in the caucus have now given Julia leadership legitimacy.

    Those here who think that Rudd still has life are sadly out of touch with political reality. 😯

  104. ratsak

    Like I said last night, it’s been a very good leadership spill for the ALP.

    The problems of Rudd as PM and after have had a good airing and he’s had his backside handed to him with a 30% vote. That is a thrashing in anyone’s terms.

    Now that he’s seen the writing on the wall (written in his own blood) that he isn’t going to get the top job back any time soon I think Rudd will play nice (for the time being at least). His backers being so publicly shown to be a small minority won’t have much heart for a rerun either.

    This will all change the narrative that surrounds Gillard and Labor. It has already started today. Of course those on the Rudd drip like Hartcher and Simkin will write it up as all bad, but most other commentators were moving from the “she’s finished – it’s just a question of when” meme to actually questioning at what point the spotlight might turn to Abbott.

    The PM has also sharpened up her speech and is giving snappy answers. She is projecting power, and is starting to rack up some victories to back that up. The fact that she continues to win when the odds are stacked against her is starting to slowly sink in to the commentariat. Each victory brings her closer to “Iron Lady” status amongst the talking heads. It will take a while yet, but it’s getting there.

    A week like this can energise the party. Such a decisive vote will buoy the PM’s supporters and focus the minds of Rudd’s supporters onto what they need to do – fighting tories. For at least a few months none of Rudd’s supporters are going to want to be seen not pulling their weight.

    The reshuffle may see McClelland dropped from Cabinet and perhaps Carr dropped altogether (but maybe not), but I reckon that might be balanced by promotion of a Rudd supporter (Kelly? I’m assuming he went Rudd) so that the PM can strongly argue that it was based solely on performance and not revenge. Albo is safe as houses, Bowen will keep immigration as punishment enough and M’arn might get a sideways shove to something that will get him out of being Big Mining’s advocate in Cabinet. There won’t be any night of the long knives.

    All in all a good cathartic day for the government. Abbott and his clowns can rehash quotes all they like (it’s not like an equally large smorgasboard of embarrassing quotes couldn’t be prepared from their utterances), every day they spend focusing on such trivia instead of good policy is a day closer to their eventual failure. In the end policy will matter and Abbott hasn’t got any and is unlikely to every have any worth a damn.

  105. lefty e

    [As a GRN, do you think greens will target Albanese in Grandlyer on basis of his support for the less environmentally robust Rudd than the PM? I got a hint Bob Brown with his dig at Martin Ferguson may be thinking along those lines]

    Shellbell – no. Mar’n is a special case, all on his own. Greens will obv run hard as any other time in Grayndler, but with no particular anti-Albo malice.

  106. rosa

    CENTRE – Legitimacy with whom? The caucus? That’s not where she needs legitimacy. Her big worry now is not Rudd, but her own bodyguard.

  107. scorpio

    Lyne Lady,

    [ tlbd 66
    albo despises her ]

    He’s a good judge of character is Albo! 😉

  108. William Bowe

    Simon (Cullen) says:

    [Simon Cullen‏@Simon_CullenReply

    The ABC understands Mark Arbib is to resign as Minister and Senator]

  109. rosa

    BEMUSED – Yes, thank you for that link.

  110. Lyne Lady

    true? mark arbib resigning

  111. William Bowe

    Arbib “soon to hold a presser”, tweets Simon Cullen.

  112. Patrick Bateman

    [true? mark arbib resigning]
    Please say so… appalling man. Although presumably part of some medium-term power gambit.

  113. lefty e

    Maybe Arbib has been offered US Ambassador to Australia.

  114. The Big Ship

    Diogenes @ 61

    [Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions.

    Is Gillard going to do that?]

    She already did that with Rudd as Foreign Minister since before the election in 2010, as did Abraham Lincoln in appointing his main rivals Salmon P. Chase and William H. Seward as, respectively, his Secretary of Treasury and his Secretary of State in 1861.

    The parallel goes further, with the serially disloyal Chase eventually eased out of political office prior to the 1864 election into the post of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court after Lincoln eventually accepted his oft-provided resignation when he judged that he no longer needed his political support. Seward, originally an implacable foe of Lincoln, eventually came to regard him as a God-send, and backed him fully in 1864.

  115. rishane

    [true? mark arbib resigning]

    Maybe it was going to be part of the reshuffle and he decided to jump the gun?

  116. The Finnigans

    Mark Arbib has just resigned from the ministry and the Senate. – oh dear, another Faceless man of Abbott has become faceful

  117. bemused

    Spotted this good line in a comment on Business Spectator:

    If you can’t be with the leader you love, love the one you’re with…

    And so it is with those of us who favoured Kevin Rudd for the leadership. We will get behind the ALP and work for victory at the next election.

    It is interesting that this episode has flushed out those who were members of a fan club or “cult” and declared if their preferred candidate did not win they would no longer support the ALP. Such is the depth of their loyalty and commitment. It will be long remembered and their comments viewed through that prism.

  118. Boerwar

    Z

    My guess is that Mr Rudd was forced into challenging before he was ready and before he had the numbers. Having been flushed out, he had to run or he would have been finished anyway.

    He was flushed out by the revelations from Mr Wilkie (November suborning story) and Mr Cassidy (four journos story).

    Once public, these enabled a public counter attack by senior ministers. Their attacks, which were not repudiated by Ms Gillard, made Mr Rudd’s position as Cabinet minister untenable.

    Those who have previously excoriated Mr Cassidy might want to reflect on his role in the whole affair. He told the truth. In doing so, he triggered a leadership stoush before Mr Rudd was ready.

  119. William Bowe

    Arbib press conference “at 4.10pm”, apparently.

  120. Tom Hawkins

    So who is waiting in the wings for a gig as a Labor senator? Someone of distinction hopefully. A positive high public profile would be good.

  121. scorpio

    In the Senate. lol

    [ Matter of public importance – the complete dysfunction of the Labor Government ]

    http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/

  122. Diogenes

    GG

    [“Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions”.

    Lincoln was shot!]

    And by someone who stayed in Rudd’s hotel in Washington.

  123. bemused

    rosa @ 107

    BEMUSED – Yes, thanks.

    It was not what I would call a timeline but it was interesting in the interpretation it placed on the motives of some.

    It made Rudd’s comment about supporting Julia Gillard in his speech rather pointed.

  124. Centre

    rosa

    The Party through a genuine democratic process has overwhelmingly elected Gillard by a staggering 71 to 31 votes against Rudd taking into account the manner in which Rudd was removed from office.

    Julia has far more legitimacy now than what Abbott will ever have.

    I think you could well do yourself a better service if you just concede.

    You have been defeated. 😀

  125. the spectator

    [The parallel goes further, with the serially disloyal Chase eventually eased out of political office prior to the 1864 election into the post of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court after Lincoln eventually accepted his oft-provided resignation when he judged that he no longer needed his political support. Seward, originally an implacable foe of Lincoln, eventually came to regard him as a God-send, and backed him fully in 1864]

    with the ultimate irony being it was Salmon Chase who conducted the second inaugral of Lincoln being the Chief Justice.

  126. shellbell

    [ Tom Hawkins
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink
    So who is waiting in the wings for a gig as a Labor senator? Someone of distinction hopefully. A positive high public profile would be good.]

    from NSW labor – KK??

  127. Dr John

    [ Puffy
    Schacht, an ex Labor Senator and numbers man, said it might happen if the polls didn’t improve. ]
    Diogenes, didn’t you already yesterday or earlier today try to throw a third player into the mix with todays ballot?

  128. Diogenes

    TBS

    And Seward was knifed (literally) on the same night as Lincoln. They also tried to kill the VP.

  129. Andrew

    Good to see the PM admit today that she should have told the full story of the leadership change in 2010, and that that made it difficult for the voters to understand.

    I see that she was trying to protect the Rudd legacy and not inflict potential electoral damage at the time. But it was a mistake

  130. rosa

    BEMUSED – Yes, Black by name and black by outlook.

  131. centaur009

    So why would Rudd go now knowing that he wasn’t going to win? hmmm what do you all reckon?
    Who won the meat tray by the way?

  132. Diogenes

    Dr John

    [Diogenes, didn’t you already yesterday or earlier today try to throw a third player into the mix with todays ballot?]

    No.

  133. centaur009

    All eyes will be on the next Newspoll

  134. rishane

    [Who won the meat tray by the way?]

    I believe it has to be split. 😉

  135. Boerwar

    The problems with Grog’s piece are:

    (1) It assumes the journos were not being backgrounded and it assumes that Mr Rudd’s ‘slips’ really were ‘slips’.
    (2) It assumes that the journalists were able to predict accurately that the social media strategy plus bad polls wouldn’t ‘force’ a Caucus vote more favorable for Mr Rudd.

    Otoh, I agree with Grog’s view that many journalists provided substandard analyses, generally oozed contempt, and saw themselves as players rather than as commentators. With some notable exceptions, the MSM has done some real destruction to Australia.

  136. gough1

    I posted a probably a week ago about how Julia continues to be underated and yet here again she prevails – an athiest, unmarried woman living in sin from the left faction with poor polls and no absolute majority in parliament is still PM.

    There are/were two men who wanted her job – Rudd and Abbott.

    She has now challenged or been challenged by Rudd on two occasions and come out with the spoils on both occassions.

    She went up against Abbott and 17 days after the election she prevailed.

    She continues to progress and implement good policy notwithstanding the backgorund polling white noise.

    I beleive that once she had Slipper ensconsed she has worked on flushing out Rudd on her timetable and the pokes at him or his supporters at the conference, during the reshuffle and during this month forced the issue.

    She is no certainity to lead the labor pary to the next election but I wouldn’t bet against her.

    I’ll make this prediction though. If the election is held in late 2013 and Gillard is leader then she will win, and that would make it a clean sweep of both Rudd and Abbott.

    Funnily enough some poster called feeney called her a loser a few days ago.

  137. This little black duck

    Might be a job for Andrew Leigh.

  138. Boerwar

    r

    Think Big thought that it was 29 and ate it before s/he could be stopped.

  139. Lyne Lady

    so will arbib now come into the lower house – maybe sit next to kev?? interesting suggestion for kriistina k to replace arbib in senate

  140. rosa

    CENTRE – A bit sat that you think it’s a question of whether you or I lost. That’s not how I would frame it.

  141. Tricot

    Well done to the mob on 31 who won the tray of meat!

    At the moment I still think three options are available to Labor for the next 18 months.

    *Gillard stays on her feet and fights it out in 2013

    *Some time in the future – and way beyond August – and JG is not cutting through – then there may be consideration of leadership change

    *Such change will either be to Rudd or the Third Man/Woman

    I am not very optimistic about the outcomes which might be associated 2 and 3.

    The ABC coverage in 24 this morning was pretty average. However, the PM was really at his best at the press conference.

    She obviously has been getting her skills honed here as I noted she would eye attach to the questioner, but once finished, actually turn her whole body towards the next questioner thereby making it plain to the previous questioner, that they had had their shot and she was not coming back to them.

    Well done PM! Some more of this please.

    I would make them state their names and news organisations so that we see who asks the most stupid question.

    One this morning was – and not to the PM – “Who was sitting next to Kevin Rudd in the ballot?” And, they actually get paid for these gems?

  142. rosa

    Julia trying to shore up her credentials on the left?

  143. ratsak

    BW

    I had originally held that Rudd wouldn’t challenge because he could count, but it does look like he was flushed out. Now we can only speculate on how much input Gillard had on that. It might have been completely coincidental. But when you line it up with other circumstances such as her original ascension, negotiating government with the indies, Slipper taking the speakership, and now having Rudd go far too early, well she does seem to end up on the winning side of these events…

    Murphy in The Pulse has just written “Must be the day for victories by iron ladies.”

  144. BH

    [Those who have previously excoriated Mr Cassidy might want to reflect on his role in the whole affair. He told the truth. In doing so, he triggered a leadership stoush before Mr Rudd was ready.]

    Listening to Cassidy today I got the feeling that he was wanting Labor to bring it on and get the truth about 2010 out in the open so that Labor can move on. In hindsight I think he has brought about the right outcome.

    Oakie and Wilkie great on Sky. Oakie gobsmacked Speers. Speers said wtte but Abbott is putting legislation through Parliament. What about the Wild Rivers legislation? Oakie, quick as a flash, said “Where is it? he hasn’t spoken to me about it. He hasn’t tried to negotiate it through a minority Parliament” and then carried on for awhile in that vein.
    Speers had no comeback and closed the interview. O & W are all class.

  145. shellbell

    I doubt Mr Arbib is going to be asked any questions about what he has achieved in parliament at his presser

  146. Lord Barry Bonkton

    Labor should have shot across the Fiberal’s bow about 1 VOTE TONY before they started going on about the 31 votes.

  147. Desert Fox

    Warwick,

    FYI it’s actually 56/44 not 55/45 – Essential.

  148. Tom Hawkins

    [It is interesting that this episode has flushed out those who were members of a fan club or “cult” and declared if their preferred candidate did not win they would no longer support the ALP. Such is the depth of their loyalty and commitment. It will be long remembered and their comments viewed through that prism.]

    You are a very negative individual. Give it a rest

  149. The Finnigans

    [My guess is that Mr Rudd was forced into challenging before he was ready]

    BW, i think the QLD election also a key factor. The QLD heavies probably told him to put up or STFU. He has no choice but to move.

  150. Centre

    Swan looked extremely content on QT that I could see before the :mrgreen: decided to trash it, again!

  151. victoria

    Why has Arbib resigned?

  152. William Bowe

    Those talking of their opponents as “cultists” should indeed give it a rest. The psychology on either side has been much the same – they’ve just found different causes to identify with.