Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Yes it was Tricot.
    Jones is enjoying the limelight too much and regards himself as the star of the show, not the moderator.
    Continual interrupting, talking over the top etc.
    The show has jumped the shark unfortunately.

    by Henry on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:24 pm

  2. Didn’t watch Q&A last night

    Nor did I. I’ve also ditched “7:30″ as well lately. Instead, I watch re-runs of “Dr Who” on ABC2 – the content is much more believable.

    by kakuru on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:24 pm

  3. Grattan asked wtte “MMSSS Gillard, what about the story this morning that a minister refused to serve any longer with Arbib?”

    smacked down

    by sprocket_ on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:26 pm

  4. Well, looks like a job for confessions and vic here… And the winner is … Smith, Shorten or Crean

    And Gillard? There’s an old Cold War propaganda story about Pravda covering a two-man race between a Soviet and an American athlete; when the American wins, Pravda reports that the Soviet athlete came second and the American second last. That’s Gillard: she has clobbered Rudd, but she’s only come second last. Today’s polls confirm how much she is distrusted and disliked by the electorate, in a way no amount of invocation of tough decisions or complaints of destabilisation (or laments about misogynist journalists) will repair.

    But her problems run much deeper than polling. Her regular misjudgments have led her into this mess; indeed, they’re the reason there was even a contest.

    And for all the talk that Gillard has had her reputation enhanced by the events of the last week, try telling voters that. All they’ll see is a leader adept at internal politicking, accomplished in the sort of dark arts that got her the top job in the first place (and which, it shouldn’t be forgotten, got Rudd the top job as well). But the real dark arts needed by Gillard are the sort that involve a satanic ritual that could somehow transfer Rudd’s popularity into her.

    The only winner in Labor is one of Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten or, just maybe, Simon (“safe pair of hands”) Crean, who will emerge to replace Gillard later in the year, probably in a contest with a damaged Rudd, after Gillard’s political car-wreck of a prime ministership is brought to an end by party powerbrokers.

    Better get over there and post a few comments to straighten out Bernard Keane.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:30 pm

  5. Terrific presser. Conroy was just bubbling over and seemed to take over, and the PM let him with a big smile on her face.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:30 pm

  6. If Kevin Rudd is indeed a ‘psychopath,’ as described by Gillard backer Steve Gibbons, then surely the Prime Minister’s judgment must be questioned again? After all, who would appoint a psychopath as Foreign Minister?

    It’s time to stop the hate and call an election!

    by Desert Fox on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:30 pm

  7. Better get over there and post a few comments to straighten out Bernard Keane.

    Keane’s just being anti. And really, blaming her for Rudd’s white-anting is just silly.

    by rishane on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:33 pm

  8. Desert Fox @ 1402

    It’s time to stop the hate and call an election!

    But an election won’t help you. Professional help may. Or have you just stopped taking your medication?

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:33 pm

  9. Contemptible press release from Scott Morrison, lost in yesterday’s events.

    What he failed to tell us is all those deseases would have arrived in Narua anyway!.

    He’s an idiot.

    by 1934pc on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:34 pm

  10. Did you want an election when Brandis called Howard a lying rodent?

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:34 pm

  11. Maybe at last the focus will turn to the economy and to the substance of public policy. We have had non-stop theatrics in federal politics at least since the defeat of the ETS/CPRS in 2009. Let’s hope the tumult will now recede. Gillard had a very good win against Rudd. It was both a long overdue and thorough-going, and should enable the party to unify and resume the fight against its real opponents – the LNP.

    It will be very interesting to see if Gillard can now rebuild her public standing. She has shown she has the degree of toughness and resilience that any PM must have. Hopefully, we will see a more relaxed, more forceful and more eloquent PM. She has every chance now to nurture a more assured public persona. If she is able to do this, you would have to think Labor will easily defeat the Liberals in 2013.

    by briefly on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:34 pm

  12. Thanks sprocket. I didn’t quite catch it.

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:35 pm

  13. rishane @ 1403

    Keane’s just being anti. And really, blaming her for Rudd’s white-anting is just silly.

    Ummm will blaming Rudd’s alleged white-anting for all of Gillard’s mistakes help?

    And you cannot seriously deny that she made many mistakes.

    by bemused on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:35 pm

  14. Rhys Muldoon ‏ @rhysam
    Reply RetweetedRetweet
    Delete
    FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details If I was TAbbott, I'd be a bit worried right about now.

    Muldoon often is earliest with the goss.

    by sprocket_ on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:36 pm

  15. What he failed to tell us is all those deseases would have arrived in Narua anyway!.

    And also failed to say that people who arrive by plane with visas can also bring disease into the country.

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:36 pm

  16. Thanks Henry and kakuru

    Shame really – this could really be good TV if the moderator were learn we are not really interested in his point of view.

    Jenny Brockie is it?, on SBS, does this kind of thing so much better. She plays a good moderator role, but I find it hard to actually pick out what her slant might be which suggests she plays it straight.

    by Tricot on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:38 pm

  17. victoria
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 10:19 am | Permalink
    mari

    You and many others are great contributors to this blog, and it is for this reason that I still contribute

    Please continue to contribute , I have been down for a swim as it is so hot and humid here, feel a bit better now, hence late comment

    by mari on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:39 pm

  18. the full Senator Brandis quote in reference to the Children Overboard incident
    is:

    Senator Brandis made the following two remarks: "He is a lying rodent" and "we've got to go off and cover his arse again on this".

    by sprocket_ on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:39 pm

  19. Perth records second hottest summer in 30 years.
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/13035550/hottest-summer-for-perth-in-30-years/

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:39 pm

  20. bemused

    As long as it is not the Traitor and egoist

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  21. 1411
    confessions

    What he failed to tell us is all those deseases would have arrived in Narua anyway!.

    And also failed to say that people who arrive by plane with visas can also bring disease into the country.

    The real pestilence here is Morrison himself, who is incurably malicious.

    by briefly on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  22. Mr Keane certainly suffers from “ipse dixititis”

    What would be the source for this?

    Indeed, despite his strong position, some independents still talk about wanting to deal with Malcolm Turnbull to help form a Coalition government.

    by shellbell on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  23. Ill believe Rudd was a key problem in the 2010 campaign when the ALP releases the full Faulkner report, instead of leaking selected anti-Rudd tracts.

    I guess Ill be waiting some time.

    I think the Shrike’s on the money here, and quite balanced on Rudd v Gillard:

    One of the (many) abiding myths of Gillard’s Prime Ministership is that she was crippled at the beginning by anger against the dumping Rudd. No doubt there were some who were such big Rudd fans that they stopped supporting Labor and Gillard when she took over. But they are unlikely to be significant. The first polls after Gillard came in showed that Labor’s vote jumped as did her approval rating. There was definitely a honeymoon, even if not an especially glorious one.

    The trouble is that it just didn’t last very long. The problem wasn’t the coup itself but that it soon became clear that it had no reason that made sense to the voters. The power brokers had given her the leadership, but no agenda with it – other than accommodating to the Coalition line on the ETS, mining tax and asylum seekers. In fact it was the lack of an agenda which was why the political geniuses of the ALP thought it best to hurry up and go to the polls within a few weeks of Gillard taking over.

    Add to that initiatives that were the paragon of process and consultation, like the Timor solution and the Citizen’s Assembly, all wrapped up in a non-slogan of “Moving Forward” and the honeymoon was over by the end of the first week of the campaign. Labor hacks like Barrie Cassidy might like to pretend that it was the leaks on the 28th July that derailed the 2010 campaign, but either they can’t be bothered looking at the polling of the time or are just lying.

    The campaign was such a flop that it became the first government in 80 years to lose its majority after one term. But fortunately it did mean Labor could then hide behind a minority status to conceal a program it didn’t already have.

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  24. http://www.pipingshrike.com/2012/02/there-is-no-third-candidate.html/comment-page-1#comment-5680

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  25. Were is Morrison’s press release? My PhD was on disease as a means of scapegoating racial minorities. In australia it goes back to at least the 1830s and sounds like Morrison is continuing the tradition.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:41 pm

  26. sprocket

    It was Muldoon who said there would be blood on the dance floor last week, and he was right.

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:42 pm

  27. OC:
    http://www.scottmorrison.com.au/info/pressrelease.aspx?id=830

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:44 pm

  28. Fess
    Sir Henry Parkes would be proud.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:45 pm

  29. 1409
    bemused

    Ummm will blaming Rudd’s alleged white-anting for all of Gillard’s mistakes help?

    And you cannot seriously deny that she made many mistakes.

    You are right bemused, she has made errors. But she has also demonstrated she has guts and tenacity, and at the end of the day has also shown she can unify the party and affirm its central values. These are invaluable qualities.

    by briefly on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:46 pm

  30. I think the Rudd v Gillard thing is futile in pointing to the “Who tells more lies/more often/bigger/smaller” stuff.

    Lying is in the DNA of all politicians as it is part of the game they play to keep us happy.

    We want them to make “tough” decisions as long as it is for the other guy! When a pollie is making “”tough” decision, every interest group in the planet comes out to whine.

    No wonder politicians have a built in double standard.

    By the way, Rudd’s main failure is that he is not a team player. He wants to be captain/coach and the full-forward who kicks the winning goal in the grand final.

    However, he is the type of player who never passes to anyone else in a better position and quite often fails to come to training and listen to his team mates.

    Gillard on the other hand, has been a bit too willing to avoid going through the pack and flattening a few and has carried to many weak links in her side.

    I sense she has toughened up.

    by Tricot on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:46 pm

  31. Fess

    Nothing official yet but suggestion is Sydney has experienced its coldest summer since 1953!

    by shellbell on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:49 pm

  32. bemused
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink
    Desert Fox @ 1402

    It’s time to stop the hate and call an election!

    But an election won’t help you. Professional help may. Or have you just stopped taking your medication?

    Very good Bemused, thinking the same thing

    by mari on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:49 pm

  33. Rhys Muldoon
    @rhysam
    Who are the contenders for Arbib's spot?
    There's only one. Step forward W. Mundine.

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:51 pm

  34. I’m refusing to take any part in a Rudd vs Gillard discussion on here now. It’s over.

    by Gary on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:52 pm

  35. lefty e, thanks for the link to the Liberal Party shill whose analysis you seem to think is so brilliant.

    by joe2 on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:53 pm

  36. Gary

    Agreed. It is so damn well boring. They had the ballot. She won convincingly. The journos and the Ruddistas cam go suck eggs. I want this govt to bed down its reform agenda. Dont really care who is more charasmatic. Imo no matter who the leader of the ALP at present, they would be dealing with the same issues of minority govt and a feral msm

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:55 pm

  37. Henry

    The show has jumped the shark unfortunately.

    It seems that the whole of the ABC has jumped the shark.

    I see that Hartcher and Keane just can’t let it go. The biggest win in a leadership ballot for 30 years means little to them obviously as it messes with the narrative they’ve been pushing for some time.

    by Think Big on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:55 pm

  38. Liberal Party shill

    LOL. Did you have to make it so obvious you’d never read his blog, Joe2?

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:56 pm

  39. Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
    RT @samdastyari: NSW Labor would have loved to see Bob Carr in the Senate. Unfortunately his answer to us is still no. #Auspol

    by madcyril on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:57 pm

  40. I’m refusing to take any part in a Rudd vs Gillard discussion on here now. It’s over.

    Yes, I’ll go along with that also.

    It’s been fun, but its time to move on.

    by Oscar on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:00 pm

  41. just on ABC jumping the shark, Mark Scott has form in this regard

    8h MrRabbitt ‏ @Antibolt
    Reply RetweetedRetweet
    Delete
    FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details @abcmarkscott worked for NSW Greiner Liberal Govt as Chief of Staff for Ed Minister Virginia Chadwick and Snr Advisor to Terry Metherwell.

    by sprocket_ on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:02 pm

  42. As long as the ALP is genuinely playing to win, Im happy to move on too.

    But who is the “hard-head” source of this worrying quote?

    One key hard-head said this week that Shorten needed to keep his head down for now lest Labor lose the chance for a clean leadership change in the future when the final break comes from the Rudd-Gillard era. Even from within the fighting machine this past week in the Gillard bunker, this player saw little chance of Gillard rebuilding her stocks with the public. Nevertheless, the restoration of Rudd was an intolerable notion. So deep was the hatred, that losing office has been regarded as preferable to restoring Rudd.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/first_destroy_rudd_then_find_third_E4CckY3Kj1kgWzZbAIf8FO

    Anyone with this attitude should be marched out and shot.

    Metaphorically :P

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:04 pm

  43. As long as the ALP is genuinely playing to win, Im happy to move on too.

    You have said it more than once but show no sign of doing so.

    by joe2 on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:07 pm

  44. Yes I agree (rudd vs gillard is getting boring), i will support the prime minister through the important reform agenda, as long as she is not who we go with to the next election. I cannot support labor if it is…i will be doing a Latham, and will not help in the campaign. I have been a member for over 20 years..She is unelectable

    by centaur009 on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:10 pm

  45. A franks there is no such discussion re rudc

    by my say on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:11 pm

  46. vic,

    Opinion has split in to three sections.

    Gillard and team looking to the future.
    Ruddistas still crying in their beer about 2010. Yesterday’s ballot should have provided the closure required. But, some are rather recalcitrant.
    Libs who want to go back to 2007 (Preferably 1957).

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:12 pm

  47. Yes I agree (rudd vs gillard is getting boring)

    It’s definitely time to move on to Gillard vs Shorten. ;)

    by Diogenes on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:12 pm

  48. GG

    The govt has got a hard road ahead no matter who is leader at present. Every day in minority govt is a bonus. As wise Windsor said, JG is the best person to lead the minority govt into the future. Anythng else, would have been the end of this govt, and hello to a thumping Abbott majority.

    by victoria on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:14 pm

  49. I swallowed my bile this morning and read The Australian’s coverage of yesterday’s events. I was pleasantly surprised to see that its coverage was relatively more balanced and less negative than Fairfax. Of course, my eyes ran past Shanahan’s column.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:18 pm

  50. Sky just interviewed Mundine who said he’d make his decision about the Senate gig in the next 24hrs.

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 1:19 pm

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