Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

4059 Responses

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  1. I don’t expect any of them to get any favourable treatment from the Government in the coming months. Uhlmann was spitting chips last night when Shorten taunted him about being unable to get the PM to appear.

    Nothing near as good as Julia’s “jilted lover” taunt of Barrie Cassidy, but it’ll do.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:43 pm

  2. but strangely, I am not getting attacked much.

    Radboy, dont push me:

    http://a2.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/149/c8238c71586f4e08949fef14e8a84ec3/l.jpg

    this is your last warning

    by The Finnigans on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:44 pm

  3. TP,

    I like my dog. Just, I don’t think he should be PM.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:44 pm

  4. William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Brainfarts do not make a post or provide an opinion, Radguy

    Again, maybe I’m not going back far enough, but I’m not seeing anything from Radguy to justify this sort of thing.

    I haven’t got anything against dissenting opinions. ML cheekily challenges us; DavidWH is invariably polite and occasionally makes good points; Rummel can be funny even if he is a berk on climate change; lefty e gives us the Greens side which apparently have some concerns with Gillard’s conservatism and are under the illusion that it might be better under Rudd.

    The problem with Radguy is his endless repetition of the same points. The overnight stuff was full of posts about the instability of the minority government under Gillard and the risk that they might jump in a different scenario – so she’s not safe. Well, it’s held together for 18 months, enabling some of the most difficult reform legislation to pass. What’s changed that could threaten that situation?

    Wilkie’s crooked that his ‘do it my way or else’ didn’t get up, but even if he did jump the shark the Slipper defection to independent speaker has changed the numbers where it might wreck the government. Besides, he has to consider his own position. He’s only important while there is a hung parliament and minority government. Once that’s gone his critical position is gone too.

    The two NSW country independents are the critical factor. They’ve made it clear where they stand and they’re not budging. Unless the Rudd forces are able to force the government to implode, nothing will change. And Gillard’s thumping win has stabilsed that for next six months or longer. I discussed the Indies here

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/02/27/gillard-73-rudd-29/comment-page-25/#comments

    There’s simply no logical reason to keep repeating, ‘what if…’ when they’re all only hypotheticals.

    I haven’t put it as bluntly as Mari and some of the others, but I agree with them.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:44 pm

  5. Thought I’d give 7.30 a go to see if Uhlmann and Ewart had anything positive to say. But no, Same old horse shit – couldn’t help themselves. And this outfit is supposed to be even handed. I switched it off after about two minutes and I don’t think I’ll be back any time soon if that’s the best they can do. What a bloody disgrace they are.

    That’s 2 more minutes than I’ve watched since red kerry gave it away.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:46 pm

  6. @TP/1898,

    Correction there, he’s not a potential leader, he WAS one.

    by zoidlord on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:47 pm

  7. shameless self promo

    http://t.co/rkYNGg1

    snd bilbo i did mention pollbludger

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:48 pm

  8. Hello, Bludgers.

    I’m hoping this is 3rd lucky to get a post finished today before the modem drops out, so the computer logs out & the post disappears.

    Great QT today. You’d think that, after more than 4 years in Opposition, the Coalition would learn to phrase questions that aren’t in the “lollypop ball bowled at Bradman” category. The closing minutes were brilliant! BTW: Am getting to enjoy Speaker Slipper!

    The best person for the Senate vacancy would be someone who is not a New South Welsh Labor person.

    Not until the Constitution is changed. The Senate is a STATES’ House, so there’s Buckley’s that the required Referendum would be passed.

    by OzPol Tragic on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:48 pm

  9. BTW, I believe it is indicative of the importance Singapore attaches to it’s relationships with Australia that the resolution of Labor’s leadership tensions received close coverage in the MSM.

    As a matter of interest, IMHO, the coverage was rather more mature here than it was in the Oz MSM.

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:49 pm

  10. i think u get a kick outta being the ‘whipping boy”

    whatever floats ur boat

    So tell me Gus, when popularity is the cornerstone of political success, why does the ALP insist on being a whipping boy?

    Puff, my trolling doesn’t seem to be upsetting WB.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:50 pm

  11. The problem with Radguy is his endless repetition of the same points.

    GD, he single handedly consumed all Bilbo’s bandwidth and crashed Crikey steam driven server.

    i saw that Bilbo said they wheeled in a new server. i just hope the boiler is better.

    by The Finnigans on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:50 pm

  12. gusface

    shameless self promo

    http://t.co/rkYNGg1

    snd bilbo i did mention pollbludger

    Gosh Gussie you sound nothing like you look :)

    by poroti on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:50 pm

  13. ROFL Finns!

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:51 pm

  14. OPT

    My assumption was that Labor could choose a non-Labor person…

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:51 pm

  15. Not until the Constitution is changed.

    I wasn’t aware there was any requirement in the Constitution for the person to live in the same state they are standing in?

    by ltep on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:51 pm

  16. shameless self promo

    Gussie, the voice training i gave you, i see that it has come to good use.

    by The Finnigans on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:51 pm

  17. Gosh Gussie you sound nothing like you look

    poroti, see #1915

    by The Finnigans on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:52 pm

  18. And the 7 30 report continual kicking along of the can of the ALP leadership continues.
    Of course they HAD to interview the jaundiced Rodney Cavalier for his proclamation of the death of the ALP. As well of course for Prof Nick Economou’s bleak prognosis.

    I don’t always buy the ABC/Mark Scott ALP bias theory but I did have to raise an eyebrow when listening to PM on the way home. There they were, beating up the group of labor mp’s who apparently defied Emmo’s instruction not to attend the West Papuan friendship meeting for a full 7 minutes (mind you Laurie Ferguson was stupidly obliging with his cracks at Emmo). WTF I thought? West Papua friendship meeting?
    Meanwhile Russell Broadbent’s dissing of Abbott’s ridiculous PPL scheme got zilch attention. Makes you wonder.

    by Henry on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:52 pm

  19. gusface
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink
    shameless self promo

    http://t.co/rkYNGg1

    snd bilbo i did mention pollbludger

    Whats this “If he doubled his vote Rudd would still have fallen short” ?????

    61-41 for Rudd would have been a convincing win

    Whats with the “Anti green” stuff about PBers? We aren’t all Anti green!!!!

    by Mod Lib on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:54 pm

  20. the hollowing out in the ALP is nothing compared with the hollowing out at the ABC

    by Kinkajou on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:56 pm

  21. Dunny, repetition has only been caused by repetitious points from your side.

    I prefer not to repeat myself. Thankfully, those who have been discussing things with me have not bothered to go over the old ground.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:56 pm

  22. Mod Lib,

    I am.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:57 pm

  23. gus

    Your voice sounds a lot like scorpio’s.

    by Diogenes on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:57 pm

  24. I have sufficiently frustrated the ALP hacks in here for them to just ignore me. Go get ‘em.

    Like shooting fish in a barrel.

    You have frustrated me as your miles under my league

    by Dr John on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:58 pm

  25. I’m not implying you are the same person clearly.

    by Diogenes on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:58 pm

  26. Kinkajou

    the hollowing out in the ALP is nothing compared with the hollowing out at the ABC

    Catching up to the Liberal Party who were hollowed years ago when the dries purged the wets.

    by poroti on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:58 pm

  27. Radguy
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

    give yourselves an uppercut those born to rule.

    Are you presuming that I am a Tory?

    Fifty percent of the population have below average IQ, 50% of the population vote Liberal. The two facts may not be correlated, but boy, the behavior of the Liberals sure looks like anecdotal evidence.

    by fredn on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:58 pm

  28. Gus:

    You speak in sentences, why can’t you blog in them?

    by Mod Lib on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:58 pm

  29. Radguy
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink
    I get a kick out of proving others wrong, yes. So does everyone else here, but strangely, I am not getting attacked much. Kezza seems to have wussed out on me.

    NO, I DIDN’T WUSS OUT ON YOU.
    I wasn’t allowed to test you.

    William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink
    Can Kezza and Radguy knock it off please.

    I replied that nothing much was going on.
    You said nothing,.

    And then you come up with this “wuss” bullshit.

    You are a fake Green. You couldn’t give a shit about them.
    Or Labor for that matter.

    A real Green would not ostracise JG the way you do.
    That makes you a . . .

    by kezza2 on Feb 28, 2012 at 7:59 pm

  30. Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, February 28, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    I am.

    Just pulling his leg GG, he actually was referring to Antony Green (just sounded a bit like anti green to me)

    by Mod Lib on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:00 pm

  31. Dr John,

    A flea can bite the bottom of the Pope in Rome.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:03 pm

  32. I do believe that it is overdue for PB posters to focus on policies rather than personalities. Given that, I would like to kick off with my interpretation of Mr Santorum’s overarching policy setting for the world’s biggest economy, the world’s leading scientific poorhouse and the world’s biggest military power.

    If I have synthesized his priority policy settings correctly, his main intention is to make masturbating men grow hair on the palms of their hands.

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:04 pm

  33. If I have synthesized his priority policy settings correctly, his main intention is to make masturbating men grow hair on the palms of their hands.

    In my view the Republican right should masturbate more, then they might stop trying to screw the rest of us…

    by Mod Lib on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:06 pm

  34. the behavior of the Liberals sure looks like anecdotal evidence.

    While they keep supporting the deniers in the party and MSM, they are nuts, although still moderately popular within the populace.

    Don’t presume this to be a permanent state of affairs. If you keep supporting Gillard, they may well stick to this, doing us all a great disservice.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:06 pm

  35. Mod Lib,

    As long as it doesn’t lead to dancing.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:08 pm

  36. The predictive text for this borrowed machine must have been put together in the Vatican. luckily it is not a matter of faith and morals. Anyhow, ‘poorhouse’ = ‘powerhouse’

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:08 pm

  37. 1928
    And that makes . . .

    On this site

    I had a great time here,
    While I was accepted as one of the boys
    until I divulged my identity as female.

    Respect evaporated.

    You blokes need to have a good long hard look at yourselves.

    Including the moderator.

    And if you care to protest,
    please remember the posts when you weren’t sure what I was saying.
    When you warned me not to out myself as female.
    You knew what was going to happen.

    I wasn’t going to be allowed to get away with what I thought
    Because I was too straight-forward, too harsh, not the least bit feminine

    And if you care to protest,
    please remember the posts when you weren’t sure what I was saying.
    When you warned me not to out myself as female.
    You knew what was going to happen

    by kezza2 on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:09 pm

  38. I’m stunned that you were impressed by Arbib’s humanity.

    by slackboy72 on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:09 pm

  39. Anyhow, ‘poorhouse’ = ‘powerhouse’

    Gee BW, after the Geylang incidence, i was expecting “whorehouse”, pheeew

    by The Finnigans on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:10 pm

  40. For all you twitchers out there, the best sighting was a pair of Striped Tit-Babblers. I kid you not. Macronous gularis.

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:12 pm

  41. Kezza seems to have wussed out on me.

    Radboy, the only person who has “wussed” out is your fellow Greenie Horsey.

    You go and tell her to get her hoof back here.

    by The Finnigans on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:13 pm

  42. Everyone, decamp to the poor house.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/virgin-lifts-fares-to-cover-carbon-tax-20120228-1u0jc.html

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:13 pm

  43. Finns
    I have had one of those days when you hardly know whether you are coming or going.

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:13 pm

  44. Boerwar,

    Heaven on a stick!

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:14 pm

  45. Santorum is almost the nuttiest of the republican nutjobs.

    He nearly vomited (his word) listening to JFK’s separation of church and state speech from 61.

    He thinks Obama is a snob for wanting all kids to go to college.

    Obama will win this in a landslide.

    I don’t think we have heard the last from the large baby in nappy Gingrich either.
    He may go postal before he departs.

    by Henry on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:14 pm

  46. Has Hawker rejoined the campaign trail in QLD?

    by Tom Hawkins on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:16 pm

  47. Henry,

    I still believe a “None of the Above” Convention is possible and someone like Jeb Bush may emerge. Palin is hanging around for just such an eventuality.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:20 pm

  48. Has Hawker rejoined the campaign trail in QLD?

    Surely after the past week Bligh wouldn’t touch Hawker with a barge pole?!

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:21 pm

  49. kezza, I had not noticed any distinctly masculine or feminine qualities to your posts at all – maybe I am gender-blind, or maybe these qualities exist more in mind of the reader than the poster….

    by briefly on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:23 pm

  50. K2

    Nah. The reason I disengaged with responding to your posts at all was because you were abrasive and because you seemed to me to be making a point of being abrasive. I acknowledge that I might have lowered the abrasiveness bar subconsciously because you were a female. Who knows what happens in the murky interface between I’d and Ego?

    Of course I am not posting on behalf of all the other hopelessly sexist males on this blog. They should be ashamed of themselves, IMHO.

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 8:24 pm

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