Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

4059 Responses

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1. I would like to see Tanner in the spot. He has always connected with me with what I have seen and heard from him.

   by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:44 pm

2. Thanks Boerwar, Bluey and Daretotread,

   I feel your efforts deserve a couple of glasses of nice wine and a frash fillet for Bluey.
   Family in Ashgrove say that Kate is very popular and cdc is not well liked

   by paddy2 on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:46 pm

3. b

   re Wpapau

   korpussus et al

   bit tangled

   tho the korpussus dude is in the frane for prez

   also there is the pushback against china

   too messy at the mo

   by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:47 pm

4. BW,
   Did either the Remora or Long Tom wear white shoes and lots of gold jewelry and offer great deals on certain beachside properties

   by paddy2 on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:51 pm

5. Paddy2

   I could do with a little help but it ain’t me it’s the damn logistics and the head scratching

   But about the Internet, the wifi is Optus, I suppose that is the problem in real terms.

   If you think you could help, feel free to call by

   I would appreciate another mind, mine is full

   crikeywhitey@live.com

   by crikey whitey on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:52 pm

6. Ms Hames gets very distressed (relating NI‘s treatment of an “affair” of hers) and ‘sHonour treats her very sympathetically.

   A fine example of how to cope with such situations.

   12.40pm: The inquiry now moves on to surveillance of Hames by the News of the World.

   Hames’s husband Detective Chief Superintendent Dave Cook led the 2002 review of the 1987 murder of Daniel Morgan.

   An email was sent to Crimewatch falsely suggesting Hames was having affair with a police officer.

   It was later revealed that Hames and her husband had been placed under surveillance by News International.

   Rebekah Brooks told Dick Fedorcio, the Met police’s head of press, that Hames and Cook were put under surveillance because they were having an affair.

   “I can’t think of any reason why that would be a valid reason [for the surveillance],” she says.

   by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:52 pm

7. Rebekah absolutely has to go.

   by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:54 pm

8. ducky

   ham radio streaming it

   some dude in coventry/ has a feed running

   lots more effects , than the internet thingy

   a few chuckles and once a stifled “bullshit”

   bit rawer thann the feed

   by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:57 pm

9. Crikey,
   I now live in brissy but will contact you in the near future

   by paddy2 on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:57 pm

10. Scorpio

    Hi!

    While the connection endures.

    Are you likely to get to the lunch

    And could you send me your email again

    It is lost again in the fracas

    crikeywhitey@live.com

    I will provide my phone number on an individual basis.
    Xx.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:57 pm

11. 1m AndrewSparrow ‏ @AndrewSparrow
    Bryant says phone hacking was “the single largest corporate case in this country for more than 250 years” – http://bit.ly/yDPorB

    rupe better fly the coop

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:59 pm

12. llefty e @ # 2168

    “Julia Gillard, and the Government she leads are treating the Australian people like adults.

    Great, maybe that means she’ll stop talking slowly to us like we’re all children at school.

    Serious point. ‘

    What a load of rubbish. That is as bad as criticising her about her ear lobes or her nose or her handbag or her “accent” or the way she pronounces some words. So she speak slowly (though I am not convinced that she speaks any slower than a lot of the population) so what. Most good verbal commutators do speak slowly.

    If you believe that this implies to you that she is speaking to you as though you are not an adult then I guess you are not an adult.

    by Ratsars on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:59 pm

13. gusface,

    Glad you found it.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 11:59 pm

14. Paddy2

    Pardon.

    I forgot you told me that you were in Brissie.

    Come with Scorpio.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:00 am

15. In 2008 a retired MPS horse was loaned to Rebekah Brooks.

    ?!!!

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:01 am

16. Newman after suffering all Labor threw at him plus handling a few issues still sits at around 50 percent primary vote so it will take something material for him not to win. I don’t want him to lose because the battle between the old Nats and old Libs as to who gets to be premier could make the Gillard v Rudd battle seem like a school yard fight in comparison.

    QLD doesn’t need that because we have suffered enough through an incompetant government too long already. I think enough of us realize that to ensure Newman gets up in Ashgrove.

    by DavidWH on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:01 am

17. crikey whitey,

    Not sure about being able to get to the lunch at the moment.

    Would love to attend. Will send you an e-mail tomorrow.

    Hang in there. Always a light at the end of the tunnel they tell me!

    Off to bed now. Early start in the morning.

    by scorpio on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:02 am

18. Handling a few issues poorly …

    by DavidWH on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:02 am

19. Well, we’ll have to disagree Ratsars. Sounds laboured, and often didactic at pressers.

    She doesnt sound like that in parliament, so I dont believe its something she cant help.

    by lefty e on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:03 am

20. ducky

    its really strange

    i think someone is streaming via iphone/tablet

    it picks up way more than the internat feed

    i am using the guardian transcript thingy as well

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:04 am

21. Hey Crikey,
    No problem but will help where I can. I will try my best.You can pass my details to scorpio as I dont know much about the meeting
    I am an old bugger.

    by paddy2 on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:06 am

22. Actually, now I think of it I am booked to go to Brisbane for two weeks at least I think it’s Brisbane depart Adelaide 10 May

    Could meet up

    by crikey whitey on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:06 am

23. Daretotread @ # 2182
    ”It was the comments by the Labor rats that turned my son. Not the caucus vote.”

    The only Labor rat is Rudd and those who helped him to try and undermine Gillard.

    So I guess that Rudd and his fellow rats have a lot to answer for.

    by Ratsars on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:06 am

24. Hey Crikey,

    That sounds good. Have sent email

    by paddy2 on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:10 am

25. Thank you for the clarification, Graeme Orr @ 2193. Why can’t all my commenters be leading authorities on electoral law? The rest of you ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:11 am

26. ducky

    i think the met loans out horses on a regular basis

    brooks shouldnt be singled out

    oh bugger, she was the only one who they lent a horse to

    

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:11 am

27. It probably says something that Graeme Orr posts here and the caravan just keeps on rolling by.

    Thanks for the insights Graeme, and thanks for bothering to engage.

    by Fiz on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:12 am

28. bilbo

    why cant u be so smart?

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:12 am

29. Oh good, at least someone was polite!

    by Fiz on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:13 am

30. All’s good and happy inside the Coalition. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-in-a-froth-over-milk-20120228-1u13a.html

    by rishane on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:14 am

31. P2

    The Remora, the Long Tom, a Hawksbill Turtle and a marine iguana inhabit one degree fifteen marina waters on Sentosa Island.

    Even so, they don’t wear white shoes.

    by Boerwar on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:16 am

32. gusface,

    Did the Met do a due diligence wrt Rebekah?

    Finns must be upset; he wants a horsey, too.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:16 am

33. Yes, it is Brisbane.

    See what I mean about the headset?

    So you see my email

    I am going with a friend to her daughter’s, arranged impromptu last week. Completely forgot about it till now.

    Apropos politics everyday life takes over.l

    by crikey whitey on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:16 am

34. Why can’t all my commenters be leading authorities on electoral law?

    I’ll put my hand up. Electoral law says I have to vote.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:17 am

35. R
    Ms Mirabella sure is a class act.

    by Boerwar on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:18 am

36. BW,
    Sentosa is a lovely spot. Just waqtch out for the gold jewelery.

    by paddy2 on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:20 am

37. William I will take up a course on Constitutional Law starting tomorrow, promise (hope he can’t see the crossed fingers hidden behind my back).

    by DavidWH on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:23 am

38. Andrew Leigh: Wrong Time for a Sovereign Wealth Fund

    h­ttp://www.andrewleigh.com/blog/?p=2269

    There are typically three arguments made by proponents of sovereign wealth funds and it is worth going through those in turn.

    First of all, some say that with the Australian dollar at historic highs we ought to amass greenbacks as a form of insurance against a currency slump. It is certainly true that a currency slump would be a shock to the economy, but it is not the only one we have to guard against. Governments have to anticipate and react to natural disasters, fiscal shocks and even unexpected technological change. We have already got substantial foreign holdings. The Future Fund has $75 billion, of which about a quarter is in overseas equities, and Australians have $1.3 trillion in superannuation, of which about a fifth is overseas assets.

    The second argument made for a sovereign wealth fund is that it would cure Dutch Disease, which occurs when a mining-induced currency rise hurts other export industries such as manufacturing, tourism or higher education. Most likely it is true that saving a greater share of mining tax revenues would lead to an easing in monetary policy and therefore a lower exchange rate, but the effect would be modest, particularly under current mining tax rates. If your top priority is to cure Dutch Disease, a sovereign wealth fund is more of a bandaid than a vaccine.

    The third argument for a sovereign wealth fund is that we need to boost national savings. It has got a virtuous ring about it, but it misses the fact that Australians already save a great deal. In 2010 our gross national savings rate was 25 per cent – higher than Japan’s. The current federal government’s fiscal consolidation is one of the fastest on record and a significant share of government investment is a down payment on future productivity. That is what we are doing with the National Broadband Network, education and transport. If you believe that Australia needs to save more, you need to say which taxes you would increase or which spending you would cut. A sovereign wealth fund without deposits has all the usefulness of a pub without beer. To put it another way, a sovereign wealth fund is in simple terms a piggy bank that contains foreign currency. It is not much use if it is empty.

    I’m no Econhead. You lot work it out.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:25 am

39. leading authorities on electoral law

    Sorry DavidWH but many of us passed Constitutional law without any difficulty, but we don’t expect William to call us authorities, let alone ‘leading authorities’ and for the record I would not have posted 2193 (who has those parts of constitutional law and the practical outcomes up their cuffs, not this little pig).

    by WeWantPaul on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:27 am

40. Nite all,
    bed approaches with a big day tomorrow at Baroon Dam then on to Gympie. Hoot hoot

    by paddy2 on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:29 am

41. I was only joking WWP. I thought William was as well.

    As well as the Constitution I though filling casual Senate vacancies was subject to convention as well?

    by DavidWH on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:33 am

42. TLBD: Thanks for relaying Dr Leigh. He makes me proud of my econs and law qualifications, as much as the loathsome lazy LOTO might make me doubt the worth of same.

    Of course, Andrew’s formal as well as personal qualifications are way ahead in both areas.

    Dr and Professor of Economics. Associate to High Court Justice.

    Could easily be making a fortune in law or business. Serving the public interest instead.

    by Marrickville Mauler on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:44 am

43. Actual DavidWH, casual Senate vacancies are a rare area where the Constitution is highly prescriptive, as the relevant section was drafted in 1977 to deal with harsh modern political realities.

    who has those parts of constitutional law and the practical outcomes up their cuffs

    Anyone who owns a copy of Graeme Orr’s most excellent The Law of Politics: Elections, Parties and Money in Australia, published by the good people at The Federation Press and available now in all good bookstores.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:46 am

44. Ratsars

    Sorry but to the public at large al the MPs who dumped so savagely on Rudd are rats. Nothing will change this except perhaps time. I am sure they knew the risks which were calculated but it does no one any good to deny that these attacks were hideous and damaging to the attackers most of all.

    Secondly about Gillard’s way of speaking – If you genuinely support her you will recognise constructive criticism. Her mannerism of talking to groups of people like a kindergarten teacher is irritating, and I think has not helped. This is an easily fixed problem, best dealt with NOW

    by daretotread on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:47 am

45. Hello Pbs

    Probably has been posted but I like it:

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13032085/pm-vows-to-rebuild-support-for-labor/

    by Gweneth on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:50 am

46. Thank you for the clarification, Graeme Orr @ 2193. Why can’t all my commenters be leading authorities on electoral law? The rest of you ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

    But studying law is too much commitment!

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:52 am

47. Her backers said the 40-vote margin was so great that it had snuffed out any chance of Mr Rudd attempting a second strike.

    Good to hear, good to hear.

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:53 am

48. Best price is at Fishpond.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:57 am

49. This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 12:57 am | Permalink
    Best price is at Fishpond.

    You could probably just borrow it from the library.

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:59 am

50. Thanks William. The 1977 changes were to correct the misuse of convention by Jo in the Albert Field appointment?

    by DavidWH on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:02 am