Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. 2237
    This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 12:25 am | Permalink

    Andrew Leigh: Wrong Time for a Sovereign Wealth Fund

    h­ttp://www.andrewleigh.com/blog/?p=2269

    Andrew Leigh is right.

    It is also worth noting that we are running a current account deficit. That is, we rely on foreign investment capital, reflecting the existence of more private investment opportunities in this country than we can fund from our own savings. A sovereign wealth fund – a fund that invests in the assets of other countries – would (if it worked) tend to both increase inwards private investment in this economy while also increasing outbound public investment flows. Since sovereign wealth funds usually invest in low-risk, low-yield financial assets, we would be increasing taxes on our own businesses so we could, say, buy US Treasuries, while also increasing our dependence on foreign investment to develop our own economy. There could be good reasons for buying US Treasuries, but there are even better reasons why we should use our economic resources to develop this economy instead.

    As things stand, a Sovereign Wealth Fund is not such a smart concept as it is made out to be. We would be swapping the opportunity to invest in high-yielding Australian projects in return for investments in low-yielding foreign assets. Such a fund would likely turn out to be a Wealth and Sovereignty Drain.

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:02 am

  2. I last posted at 12.16

    The connection is so crumm

    It is only now it connects again

    by crikey whitey on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:06 am

  3. Chris Jefferies, the Bristol landlord wrongly linked to the murder of Joanne Yeates. In November, Jefferies described his vilification by the press and said he will “never fully recover”.

    now on

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:06 am

  4. Blossom,

    I’m not a library person for non-fiction.

    That one, for me, will be a reference work.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:08 am

  5. PM vows to rebuild support for Labor

    A defiant Julia Gillard has fired the starting gun on an 18-month campaign to restore public faith in both her and the Labor party.

    LoL

    Good luck with the 18 months bit.

    The quickest way for her to help Labor pick a few percent support now would be to step down, and I’m not joking.

    But I can’t imagine that they are now pretending to restore public faith when they knifed KR, slagged, slagged again, all in the face of strong public opinion and without the slightest referral to that opinion.

    And Gillard herself being the focus of Australian displeasure with a rate of 64%, is going to restore faith. The public haven’t listened to her in the past, I think now they are more likely to throw tomatoes than listen. OF course the real thing that would go a long way to restoring public faith she will not do, which sort of makes her statement a bit of a lie.

    Does Labor have anybody at all the can connect with Australians, get their attention and and be able to restore any confidence (apart from Rudd I mean). There are a few potential leaders, but no good at all in these types of situations, and too green still.

    Smith is pleasant and safe enough but no salesman at all, and not one to ‘connect’ with the public to restore faith.

    Gillard is going to have to pray hard that Abbott does something super super stupid.

    by Thomas Paine on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:08 am

  6. Abbott

    Will be super, super stupid.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:10 am

  7. It’s going to get uglier for Mordor:

    1.50pm: Our colleague Andrew Sparrow has this report on his Politics Live blog about Labour MP Chris Bryant’s speech on phone hacking in the Commons today:

    Here are the key points.

    • Bryant predicted that the phone hacking scandal would eventually be seen as “the single largest corporate case in this country for more than 250 years”.

    • He said that the cover-up at News International extended to James Murdoch.

    There was a major cover-up at News International which stretched right up to the very highest levels of the company, as we know even up to James Murdoch. And that, in the end, I suspect, will prove to have been the biggest crime.

    • He said that all News Corporation directors were at fault for not preventing a cover-up.

    Lots more at h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/28/leveson-inquiry-nick-davies-chris-jefferies-live

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:11 am

  8. But I can’t imagine that they are now pretending to restore public faith when they knifed KR, slagged, slagged again, all in the face of strong public opinion and without the slightest referral to that opinion.

    I do somewhat agree with you there. Although I do support her, the view that the general public have of her is not a good one. Some people assume she just backstabbed Rudd when she took over after the 2010 election.

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:12 am

  9. 2243
    daretotread
    Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 12:47 am | Permalink

    Ratsars

    maging to the attackers most of all.

    Secondly about Gillard’s way of speaking – If you genuinely support her you will recognise constructive criticism. Her mannerism of talking to groups of people like a kindergarten teacher is irritating, and I think has not helped. This is an easily fixed problem, best dealt with NOW

    I agree, dtt. The PM has developed a public speaking style that is as featureless as it is both repetitious and ponderous. What this style basically assumes is that the public are idiots who can’t comprehend normal, flowing sentences and who need to hear things 3 or 4 times in order to notice them. In treating her audience as if we are pretty dumb, she manages to make herself to appear equally low-voltage.

    I admire JG, but I really wish she would drop the assumed robotics.

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:12 am

  10. • He said that 486 lies had been told to parliament about the affair. These came from News International, the police and others, he said.

    But, hey, who’s counting!

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:12 am

  11. Anyone who owns a copy of Graeme Orr’s most excellent The Law of Politics: Elections, Parties and Money in Australia, published by the good people at The Federation Press and available now in all good bookstores.

    Sadly I have only Hanks, I can’t say which edition or you’ll know I’m old.

    by WeWantPaul on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:13 am

  12. I thought Smith was a strong frontrunner for the foreign affairs position?

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:13 am

  13. Media watch was a ripper. We are heavily reliant on a diverse media to get a sense of what’s going on. We are also heavily dependent on their professionalism to not tell lies.

    Whether or not he is lying, the bully Barrie Cassidy should be ashamed. I think his position should be questioned. I would be quite delighted if he was given the boot.

    So Bollard was having a go at Kev for having a plan B to pick the ALP up from this mess. Sheesh, Gillard’s loyalties are for her and her backers own power rather than the ALP and the nation. This doesn’t raise my eyebrows.

    And so many want to defend her here.

    Shame on you Gillard backers.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:14 am

  14. At least the PM doesn’t start every answer with “Well, …. ummm …”

    She is is also devoid of strange, repetitive head movements.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:15 am

  15. I am going to work out why the tv reception is as cra as the Internet

    Night, pain et al

    by crikey whitey on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:17 am

  16. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-28/upper-class-people-more-likely-to-cheat-says-study/3856172

    by Gweneth on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:20 am

  17. And she does not have a lizard tongue

    by daretotread on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:22 am

  18. Radguy – the enemy is called the Coalition.

    by Gweneth on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:23 am

  19. Yes Gwen I know. I wouldn’t be posting this otherwise.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:26 am

  20. 2261
    Apple Blossom
    Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 1:13 am | Permalink

    I thought Smith was a strong frontrunner for the foreign affairs position?

    Have you heard otherwise, AB?

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:28 am

  21. Gillard is going to have to pray hard that Abbott does something super super stupid.

    Abbott just needs to go on being his usual nasty, nutty, negative self…..

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:30 am

  22. It is not the communication style that let down Gillard for me, it was the message surrounding her “installation”. Personally it only matters to me so far as the message contained. I do note however that it does matter to other people.

    Maybe we could leave the personal attacks to the women’s magazines and lower grade MSM?

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:30 am

  23. Bob Carr plans marred by Cabinet Revolt
    _______________
    Gillard’s plan for Bob Carr as FM is out… givena r ministerial revolt
    How does she come up with these bizarre ideas??
    She wasn’t on her best behaviour for long

    Won’t Abbott have a laugh
    Carr even had a seat booked on a flight to Canberra but has since pulled out

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mutiny-kills-pms-bob-carr-plan/story-fn59niix-1226284538034

    by deblonay on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:31 am

  24. Have you heard otherwise, AB?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/stephen-smith-the-experts-pick-to-take-foreign-affairs-portfolio/story-fnccyr6m-1226278789374

    THE consensus of international affairs experts is that Defence Minister Stephen Smith should take Kevin Rudd’s place as foreign minister.

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:32 am

  25. The 1977 changes were to correct the misuse of convention by Jo in the Albert Field appointment?

    Yes, and don’t forget NSW Premier Tom Lewis, who blazed the trail in breaching that convention a few months earlier by replacing Lionel Murphy (who at least left the Senate because the government wished to alter the political balance of the High Court) with Cleaver Bunton (who was at least compos mentis).

    The PM has developed a public speaking style that is as featureless as it is both repetitious and ponderous.

    It was telling that the PM was in such good form last week, as she was speaking for once to an audience she well understands – her fellow Labor MPs, rather than the Joe Sixpack of her imagination.

    Shame on you Gillard backers.

    I could do without this sort of moral absolutism, ta very much. It’s just possible that Kevin Rudd’s copybook is not unblotted either. There’s plenty of blame to go round in this whole mess.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:33 am

  26. Yes – Bob Carr would be good. He said some controversial stuff on planet america which I was very glad to hear!

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:36 am

  27. Nick Davies is on.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:38 am

  28. 2273
    Apple Blossom

    Have you heard otherwise, AB?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/stephen-smith-the-experts-pick-to-take-foreign-affairs-portfolio/story-fnccyr6m-1226278789374

    THE consensus of international affairs experts is that Defence Minister Stephen Smith should take Kevin Rudd’s place as foreign minister.

    Thanks AB. Stephen is well suited as FM – no doubt about that. Other than Treasury, I can’t think of a better job for him at the moment.

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:38 am

  29. Carine is back.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:39 am

  30. I never said it was unblotted WB. I don’t expect him or anyone to be perfect in their actions. If you can tell me one instance where he has been disloyal to the party, I’d like to hear it.

    The “Team” and their supporters should be ashamed of themselves for trashing others preparing for all scenarios. Would you dispute this WB?

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:42 am

  31. Briefly,

    It’ll be interesting to see whether or not the new FM will get Australia a seat with UN security council.

    by Apple Blossom on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:42 am

  32. On the reshuffle, there many known unknowns and not too may known knowns (pat pending).

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:43 am

  33. I think it is wonderful that people feel so strongly about all this that they want to give all this advice to the PM. You know what, if you want her to relax, then it might be that what she actually needs is a bit of genuine support. Unconditional support. In recognition of what she has achieved so far.

    All you blokes who have been Prime Minister in a minority government, I totally accept that this is frustrating to you (btw you were all awesome). But come on, she can’t fly if you don’t release the chains.

    Short version – cut the crap.

    by Gweneth on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:45 am

  34. Unconditional support.

    Short version – cut the crap.

    We are not a cheersquad.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:49 am

  35. I know he broke a lot of new ground for Australia while he was FM last time around, and is very well regarded in China, the US, India and the UK. Even the French were warm in their dealings with him – not least because he tried to show that Australia did not see Europe merely from its vantage point in London.

    The Chinese, especially, were keen to impress him and to cultivate good relations with him. In my opinion, the economic relationship we have with China will eventually eclipse all others, and developing healthy relations with China – in its proper regional context – should become the principal focus of our foreign policy.

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:50 am

  36. Just a comment, Radguy sounds like Thomas Paine.

    by zoidlord on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:54 am

  37. You demean me zoid.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:55 am

  38. Quite right Radguy. You are way too important for that. Sorry if I offended.

    by Gweneth on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:55 am

  39. I never said it was unblotted WB ... If you can tell me one instance where he has been disloyal to the party, I’d like to hear it.

    So it is unblotted, or it isn’t? The answer to this rhetorical question is clear, and it involves the latter of your sentences being completely delusional.

    The “Team” and their supporters should be ashamed of themselves for trashing others preparing for all scenarios. Would you dispute this WB?

    I accept the premise. Whether or not you wish to elevate it to “should be ashamed of themselves” is up to you.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:56 am

  40. 2280
    Apple Blossom

    Briefly,

    It’ll be interesting to see whether or not the new FM will get Australia a seat with UN security council.

    This was Rudd’s ambition and was something he pursued while he was PM as well. I’m not sure if it amounts to much more than seeking prestige for its own sake.

    I think the measure of successful foreign policy lies in how well we can integrate our social, cultural, economic and strategic interests with those of trade and development partners. We have to consciously pursue deeper, richer, freer and more diverse integration and exchange around the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and Asia.

    The FM should be seen as the visible, formal, national expression of such a policy commitment. Stephen is a natural for this.

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:57 am

  41. Nick Davies speaks as eloquently as he writes.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:58 am

  42. Sorry @Radguy, but teh constant rinse and repeat of Labor failer under gillard is just silly.

    by zoidlord on Feb 29, 2012 at 1:59 am

  43. I guess you should be able to provide an example then WB which will prove me delusional.

    If you mean unblotted as in having never received any mud, of couse he is blotted.

    The big question is whether any of this mud is actually true/unbiased.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:00 am

  44. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not the new FM will get Australia a seat with UN security council.

    I never understood what this was about. Why do we care whether we have a seat on the UN security council? Seriously?

    The only thing about the Security Council that matters is the veto power of the 5 permanent members. The temporary members are basically just there to get ringside seats.

    A friend of mine with some affection for the UN and its processes made some point that getting a Security Council seat was kind of an affirmation that we were one of the “in crowd”.

    Personally, it seems like a complete waste of time and effort; it doesn’t advance Australia’s interests in the world in any tangible way, it’s just a way to strut the world stage and say “look at me” – except that no one is paying attention anyway.

    by Jackol on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:00 am

  45. 2.57pm: Davies says that
    the hacking scandal would never have been uncovered if officers had
    been forbidden to speak to the press without authority, as the current
    Met leadership proposes.

    2.54pm: In his statement, Davies says in some forces the press office seeks to dominate contacts with the press; in other cases there is an attempt to make unauthorised meetings an offence.

    He says in the aftermath of the phone-hacking scandal there has been a backlash in which some forces – not connected with the hacking investigations – have attempted to criminalise unauthorised contact.

    “criminalise unauthorised contact” – That would be a worry: no copper would ever speak to a journo again, off the record.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:01 am

  46. If it were so silly, would WB be working his brain very hard to counter my points?

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:01 am

  47. Having a voice on the Security Council gives greater prominence to your points of view and thus, potentially, increases your influence.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:03 am

  48. Not now mum, I’m up to the big boss stage!

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:03 am

  49. agreed jackol @ 2293

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:04 am

  50. Radguy,

    Check Bilbo’s gravatar.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:04 am

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