Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

4059 Responses

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  1. @radguy,

    No. Because Gillard is still PM.

    He doesn’t need to.

    by zoidlord on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:04 am

  2. 3.00pm: Davies says he has written about 90 stories on phone hacking and has had a lot of trouble getting information from Scotland Yard.

    He adds that he has backed questions up by submitting Freedom of Information Act requests, but these have been subject to delays.

    Often the material obtained is incomplete or inaccurate.

    And therein lies the crux.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:06 am

  3. He doesn’t need to.

    I think WB will find the need to. Otherwise his position on this forum is quite undeserved, and his cred will suffer.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:07 am

  4. Yes, of course, because….

    by Gweneth on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:09 am

  5. So this is Davies on the Leveson Ducking Stool?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:10 am

  6. Puff,

    The one and only. Worth the price of admission.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:11 am

  7. I have missed the best bits.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:12 am

  8. As is Carine.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:12 am

  9. Puff,

    We shall see.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:12 am

  10. Nite night owls…

    by Gweneth on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:12 am

  11. Carine is questioning him?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:13 am

  12. Puff,

    There is a great live blog h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/28/leveson-inquiry-nick-davies-chris-jefferies-live

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:14 am

  13. Meanwhile, manufacturing in the US is decelerating…..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/durable-goods-orders-in-u-s-drop-4-marking-worst-decline-in-three-years.html

    Capital Goods

    Today’s report showed bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment in items such as computers, engines and communications gear, decreased 4.5 percent, the most in a year.

    Orders slumped 10.4 percent for machinery, the most in three years, and primary metals demand dropped 6.7 percent.

    “Core capital goods -- a good proxy for business capital spending -- which surged toward year-end to take advantage of the expiring full depreciation allowance, are expected to push higher still as an improving economic environment prompts businesses to invest,” said Benjamin Reitzes, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

    Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, used in calculating gross domestic product, decreased 3.1 percent, the most since April 2009, after rising 2.8 percent.

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:14 am

  14. Yes. Carine Patry Hoskins of the great north of the border accent.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:15 am

  15. Duckie wishes he was a big cheese in UK Modor press. 0h, To be questioned by Carine!

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:16 am

  16. Well, those eye lashes!

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:17 am

  17. Having a voice on the Security Council gives greater prominence to your points of view and thus, potentially, increases your influence.

    I don’t see it that way.

    Without googling, who are the temporary members of the Security Council at the moment, and how has being on the Security Council enhanced their influence in some specific way – prominent press releases, decisions made that were swayed by their arguments etc.

    Ok, so we’re not diplomats, and the diplomatic world works in quite a different way, but really I find it very hard to believe that a country would be more likely to win an argument or settle a deal or influence an outcome because they have a temporary seat at the Security Council.

    In my opinion the influence that a country has always comes down to what real power it has in the world – economic, military, cultural. That real power can be enhanced or degraded by how a country plays the diplomatic games – what alliances it forms, who it supports who it opposes etc., of course.

    A Security Council seat may reflect the influence of a country, but I would argue it has almost no effect on the magnitude of that influence.

    Let’s spend our foreign affairs dollars getting diplomats doing real diplomacy with other nations in unilateral and multilateral ways to advance our shared interests in trade, culture, geo politics. I will always argue that your diplomatic goal should be about real outcomes (can we win support from developing nations to break down European and American trade barriers, can we gently bring the Pacific nations around to exert more pressure on the Fijian military dictator to speed up genuine democratic reforms etc etc) – our diplomatic goal should never be to sweet talk countries into voting for us in “UN Idol” to get a Security Council seat, and resources devoted to such a goal are wasted.

    Perhaps it could be a consolation prize for not winning the World Cup bid…

    by Jackol on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:30 am

  18. Davies and ‘sHonour are having a wonderfully lively discussion.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:31 am

  19. Perhaps it could be a consolation prize for not winning the World Cup bid…

    Not winning that was a win in itself.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:32 am

  20. Lunch

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:33 am

  21. P & T. 7 minutes.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:35 am

  22. In Canberra, it’s been raining without cease for about 18 hours. We’ve had 20 mm of wonderfully gentle stuff. Makes a change for the storms we’ve had on and off for about two months.

    Makes me realise just how lucky we are here compared to the ugly stuff happening elsewhere.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:38 am

  23. Man up Bilbo. Do you need to sleep on that one?

    Should be pretty easy to point out an example of Kev’s disloyalty to the ALP if it were true. Anyone? Anyone?

    I have pointed out a major act of disloyalty from Gillard and her backers.

    She should resign.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:39 am

  24. 3.26pm: Davies says there are instances where paying for information may not be unethical.

    Paying for information does create a problem. The problem is not ethical it’s practical. You run the risk you are giving them a motive to fabricate to earn their fee.

    In principle I am not saying it is always wrong to pay, I think there are circumstances in which it’s OK. On the whole newspapers do not pay people to talk, they pay people not to talk to other newspapers.

    Indeed.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:39 am

  25. There is an interesting drama on ABC TV, about a lady private detective, Miss Fisher, set in Melbourne in he 1920′s. One if the characters is a maid who won’t answer the telephone because she is afraid of electricity. as her priest told her electricity was the devil’s work and it will run through people into the core of the Earth and destroy he planet.

    A bit like some people and the NBN.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:41 am

  26. Puff,

    I saw the first ep last Friday (?). Looks like good Oz TV.

    The maid must be a Tone fan: she picked up the phone.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:44 am

  27. The rabbit hole beckons Mr Bowe…

    by Jackol on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:47 am

  28. Radguy, on the previous page you were citing my engagement with you as evidence that you were right, and you’re now citing the fact that I’m not engaging with you as evidence you were right. Nonetheless, I’ll bite. Barrie Cassidy is aware of four journalists who received off-the-record briefings from Rudd undermining Gillard. Andrew Probyn writes that Rudd is “lying when he denies briefing journalists a fortnight ago about a two-step challenge to Julia Gillard”, and that “his campaign to destabilise and usurp the PM began many months ago”. I am not aware of a single press gallery journalist or any other believable authority who has said they doubt the truth of this. No doubt I’m wasting my effort typing this though, because such is your imperviousness to the blindingly obvious that you are, if my memory serves me correctly, a 9/11 conspiracy theorist.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:47 am

  29. Nick Davies is SO comfortable with ‘sHonour. He must have no fear. Brian is looking a little frustrated (folds hands, does a slight moue) and lets Nick go on. Great theatre, never mind the words.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:53 am

  30. The period feel of Miss Fisher’s Murder Mysteries from that first episode was really well done I thought – hard to say exactly how authentic it was, but it felt immersive and transportive which was nice. Maybe a bit too “shiny” as The Guide pointed out, but still – very interesting. Fun. Silly.

    I’ll be watching more.

    by Jackol on Feb 29, 2012 at 2:54 am

  31. “Ten o’clock tomorrow morning.”

    Night, all.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:00 am

  32. Undermining a useless and tainted leader for the good of the party and the country – this is not disloyal. Maybe you don’t like the tactics, tough, that’s politics.

    Breaking your own rules about talking about that day?

    I am not a conspiracy theorist, I have the stand point of Architects and Engineers for truth. They they cite evidence and demand a proper investigation. I have no specific theories about what happened, how the hell am I supposed to know when the investigation failed to explain the events to the satisfaction of the public.

    That is all that I will say on that matter. Your rules.

    You have stooped to new lows Bilbo.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:03 am

  33. Undermining a useless and tainted leader for the good of the party and the country – this is not disloyal.

    Yes, I entirely agree with the point you’re making here about Mark Arbib, Bill Shorten and David Feeney.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:11 am

  34. Radguy
    Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 2:39 am | Permalink
    Man up Bilbo. Do you need to sleep on that one?

    Should be pretty easy to point out an example of Kev’s disloyalty to the ALP if it were true. Anyone? Anyone?

    I have pointed out a major act of disloyalty from Gillard and her backers.

    She should resign.

    OH FFS.

    I swore I wouldn’t resopond anty frurther to the pillock, but here goes:

    1. Rudd was actively destabilisig the PM for months. This included briefing several journalists on his plans and also on her alleged deficiencies as Labor leader and PM.

    2 He had contact with various stakeholders with interests in Gillard Government initiatives, actively undermining those initiatives and promising to amend or withdraw them to the stakeholders’ advantage. One example is the Clubs Industry to whom he promised drop the Government’s pokies pre-commitment scheme, while also backgrounding them on how to most effectivlely target the Government in their anti-precommitment campaign. This contact was not personal, of course, but via an intermediary (one of his senior staffers) so that the devious little pratt could maintain a plausible deniability. It was also made at a time when he was meeting with Wilkie and promising him to support the precommitment scheme.

    3. He never missed an opportunity to be as disrespectful towards the PM as he could with members of the press (always off the record, of course). Remember Boganville…F-Bomb-gerund bitch etc etc? Unfortuntely for him, many of these outbursts were also heard by others who were not prepared to keep his comments to themselves.

    So give it-up, will you?

    by smithe on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:11 am

  35. In your next personal attack Bilbo, can I expect you to attack my lifestyle as well?

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:13 am

  36. Yes, I entirely agree with the point you’re making here about Mark Arbib, Bill Shorten and David Feeney.

    And where did I indicate that they had been disloyal?

    This is hypocrisy and you know it Bilbo.

    No smithe, I will not give up. Rudd was never disloyal to the party. Being disloyal to Gillard does not equal being disloyal to the party.

    What is this? Animal Farm?

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:16 am

  37. Did Gillard also plant the demolition charges that brought-down the WTC?

    by smithe on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:21 am

  38. You are pathetic smithe.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:23 am

  39. No doubt I should have known this already, but apparently you get kicked out of the ALP if you’re a member of a citizens initiated referenda group.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:26 am

  40. Interesting. CIR was part of the ALP platform from 1901 till some time in the 60s. The Victorian pledge is quite different to the NSW one which still calls for socialisation of the means of production.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:32 am

  41. Kev and I are ready to accept your apologies folks.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:32 am

  42. Folk.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:34 am

  43. I should note that this is the Victorian ALP pledge. I’d be interested if any Labor historians out there could explain how and why CIR achieved the status of official heresy.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:34 am

  44. An interesting mix of proscribed organisations. 1 quasi fascist, 2 related to the old DLP and an anti-abortion group

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:35 am

  45. A moderator with a grav that seems like fair, balanced and wise old mage or something should be able to do the honourable thing and admit when they are wrong.

    Otherwise, they are a phoney.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:44 am

  46. Why don’t you go and have a lie down, Radguy.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:45 am

  47. I found this paper with alittle of the history of recall elections as part of the platform but it doesn’t mention when it became heresy

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:45 am

  48. Oops
    http://sydney.edu.au/law/cru/documents/2011/Recall_Report.pdf

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:46 am

  49. Why won’t you apologise and admit your hypocrisy? Do this and I will be gone.

    Yes, I need a lie down, but first I want to establish if the commanding moderator of probably the most popular political forum has honour.

    I aint taking prisoners.

    by Radguy on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:55 am

  50. Very well Radguy, I acknowledge that it was wrong of me to believe that I knew what the hell you were going on about. And with that apology humbly offered, we will be hearing no more about the matter.

    by William Bowe on Feb 29, 2012 at 3:57 am

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