Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Doesn’t Pearson have close ties to Clive Palmer and Twiggy Forrest?

    I’m not sure what this is supposed to infer, but it’s worth pointing out that Kevin Rudd has close ties to Andrew Forrest through the establishment of Forrest’s indigenous employment initiative. Perhaps Mundine is involved in that?

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:01 am

  2. peg

    far easier for half a dozen people to vote in a Senate ballot then for a few thousand.

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:02 am

  3. Grog’s column today is another slap in the face to the msm.
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3857392.html

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:03 am

  4. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/the-campaign-queensland-deserves/story-e6freoof-1226284567120

    It's time for voters to get the campaign Queensland deserves
    From: The Courier-Mail February 29, 2012 12:00AM

    FROM today, The Courier-Mail will no longer travel on the leaders' buses and planes. Instead, we will devote our resources to the important issues.

    by Leroy on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:05 am

  5. Must have been some money on the ALP this morning. Current odds @ centrebet

    ALP: $3.18 (in from $3.40),
    Noalition: $1.34 (out from $1.30).

    by Benji on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:09 am

  6. According to PI, Pearson’s friends are Warren Mundine, John Howard and Tony Abbott.
    http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/thinkers-agenda-setters/noel-pearson

    Regardless of what people on the ground think, Pearson has managed to convince those higher up of his brilliance. Like John Howard, for instance, who Pearson formed a close relationship with as prime minister. Controversially, Pearson supported the Howard government's Northern Territory Intervention in 2007.

    Opposition leader Tony Abbott is also an admirer, having regularly cited Pearson's policies in Cape York as an example for other communities. He's even floated the idea of using Pearson's welfare management scheme as a model for other forms of government benefits.

    Abbott has also backed Pearson over his efforts to overturn the Wild Rivers legislation, which restricts development in the Cape. Queensland LNP leader and potential premier-in-waiting Campbell Newman has also raised issues over what Pearson has called the "green foot" crushing the throats of indigenous people.

    by Pegasus on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:10 am

  7. benji

    there is a slight drift in the leaders market as well

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:11 am

  8. Wilkie is not going to support the govt’s pokies reform bills.
    http://www.andrewwilkie.org/content/index.php/aw/press_releases_extended/pokies_big_business_and_the_pms_backbone

    Possibly because it will be redundant before it takes effect? Note, this was posted in bigpond etc about an hour ago; so hot off the mark from Oz’s (& much of the world’s) major source of pokie machines.

    Online, mobile gaming key for Aristocrat

    Gaming-machine supplier Aristocrat Leisure says that it must position itself for the online and mobile gaming market rather than just selling "a box".

    Aristocrat chief executive Jamie Odell said yesterday that the gaming industry would be transformed over the next three to five years by online and mobile technology.

    He said that it is important for Aristocrat to develop the content to be carried on that technology.

    "We're positioning Aristocrat to be part of that transformation," Odell said.

    by OzPol Tragic on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:12 am

  9. zoomster

    far easier for half a dozen people to vote in a Senate ballot then for a few thousand.

    Don’t u wish it was only half a dozen ;-)

    How many members has Victorian ALP managed to sign up lately and how active are existing members in their local branches?

    by Pegasus on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:12 am

  10. lizzie,

    Good to see that u r still posting :-)

    by Pegasus on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:13 am

  11. gusface,

    yes, even Tony Windsor’s odds of winning New England have improved according to the bookies.

    by Benji on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:13 am

  12. He should only emerge if there are really big, big, big issues where it would be a matter of integrity if he stayed silent.

    Unfortunately there IS such an issue lurking ie Assange.

    Must have read my mind. Was only thinking last night that Gillard is very lucky Assange isn’t in Australia given the latest leak out of the US that they intend to fit him up with a charge.

    That would be something that may get Rudd out very stridently and would be in opposition to Gillard who showed last time she is quite happy to sell off Assange to the Americans for some brownie points aka Hicks.

    The opposing position to Gillard of protecting Assange would be hugely popular and also the right thing, and something Rudd showed an interest in last time.

    by Thomas Paine on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:14 am

  13. The incompetent government has passed another four bills in the HoR this morning.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:15 am

  14. Confessions @ 2502

    Grog’s column today is another slap in the face to the msm.

    Yes, well worth reading.

    by Brian Mc on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:17 am

  15. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    Why dont the #MSMhacks like Shananan & alikes, just write about policy related issues & politics, rather than internal party issues #auspol

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:18 am

  16. The incompetent government has passed another four bills in the HoR this morning.

    Ducky, how many now? I need it to update my BISONs

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:19 am

  17. Well, well, well, as yesterday i was saying: “Horsey, get your hoof back here at PB” and guess who is here. How are you Horsey?

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:21 am

  18. peg

    The quote you provide doesn’t say anything about Mundine.

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:21 am

  19. OPT:

    A split in those advocating for pokies reform benefits nobody but the vested interests, as we saw with carbon pricing when the Greens and SenX decided to play politics with the issue rather than work pragmatically.

    Seems they are willing to do the same with pokies reform.

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:22 am

  20. Finns,

    I’ll provide an update on Friday. It’s rather a long process.

    Or you could tweet Albo!

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:23 am

  21. Finns,

    Now you can return the horsey you borrowed from the MPS.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:24 am

  22. Assange has a problem…..he probably broke US law. Now, he may have made a name for himself by doing so, but that doesn’t change anything much. Like it or not, the US is going to act to protect its security-related information.

    No matter how much sympathy one might have for Assange, it is completely unrealistic to expect the US to show a blind eye to his actions. If they were to do so, they would really be saying to all and sundry, “Look, here is our secret intelligence. Help yourself. We will not raise a finger to stop you accessing or publishing our data.”

    This is obviously not something any Government could just let pass. It is worth remembering as well that no-one forced Assange to publish. He chose to do so of his own volition. He can claim no immunity now.

    by briefly on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:27 am

  23. The Finnigans,

    Address me by my chosen monicker and I might respond. Otherwise, have fun playing on your own :-)

    by Pegasus on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:27 am

  24. Four bills is just not good enough. This government is incompetent, dysfunctional and paralysed and only an election can fix it.

    by triton on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:28 am

  25. Seems they are willing to do the same with pokies reform.

    Seriously funny :-D

    Yeah, Labor isn’t playing politics on pokies reform :-D

    by Pegasus on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:30 am

  26. If only stuff such as Grog’s good get a proper airing.

    by BK on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:31 am

  27. briefly

    and one would be surprised, in those circumstances, if they didn’t have a brief of charges prepared on him.

    I’m sure Australia has plenty of legal files on expat citizens, even if they are unable to action them at present.

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:31 am

  28. It will be interesting to see how many people respond to GetUp’s campaign re pokies reform and email their local members.

    http://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/pokies-reform/the-1-120-solution–3/

    Also interesting, will be the responses of federal MPs who are lobbied by such a campaign.

    by Pegasus on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:38 am

  29. The incompetent government has passed another four bills in the HoR this morning.

    Damn those do nothings!! Its obvious that this Govt is totally useless, paralyzed and dysfunctional and that we need and election now!!

    Oops! Sorry channeling :monkey: for a minute there. :)

    by imacca on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:42 am

  30. briefly

    Assange has a problem…..he probably broke US law.

    Have newspapers that published embarrassing government documents also broken US law?

    by triton on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:44 am

  31. Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
    On Bob Carr - Prime Minister Julia Gillard says the story on the front page of the Australian is 'completely untrue.'

    It ain’t called the LOLstralian for nothing.

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:46 am

  32. An associate of the Heartland Institute, the thinktank devoted to discrediting climate change, taught a course at a top Canadian university that contained more than 140 false, biased and misleading claims about climate science, an expert audit has found.

    Heartland associate taught 'biased' climate course at Ottawa university
    Expert audit finds man connected with climate sceptic thinktank taught climate course to students at Carleton University

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/28/heartland-associate-climate-scepticism-ottawa-university?CMP=twt_fd

    by lizzie on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:49 am

  33. triton

    briefly

    Assange has a problem…..he probably broke US law.

    Have newspapers that published embarrassing government documents also broken US law?

    The NY Times has some practise having published the “Pentagon Papers” .I am sure they would have had a pretty good legal look at the situation before working with Assange on the material and then publishing.

    by poroti on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:52 am

  34. Pegasus

    Not drowning, waving. Altho sometimes it’s difficult to keep my head above the swamp.

    by lizzie on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:52 am

  35. Address me by my chosen monicker and I might respond. Otherwise, have fun playing on your own

    Horsey, i know you by no other name. i am happy fun, alone

    http://www.petergreenberg.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/australia-dolphins-ocean.jpg

    (Dum-dum-dummy doo-wah, ooh yay, yay, yay, yeah)
    (Oh, oh oh oh oh ooh-ah-ah0

    Only the lonely, Only the lonely :P

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:52 am

  36. The problem the Greens and others have with Pearson is that he does not conform with their Rousseauian concept of the “Noble Savage”.

    He’s eschews welfareism which he rightly believes has reduced aboriginal people to degraded serfs and he champions causes that encourage self determination and the rights of his people to use traditional skills to exploit Australian natural resources.

    He doesn’t pretend to speak for all Aboriginals.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:00 pm

  37. ….and he isn’t Mundine.

    Isn’t it racist to assume that because one Aborigine has a certain viewpoint, therefore another one does to?

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:02 pm

  38. Dont forget Windsor and Oakeshott at the NPC at 12.30 today

    by victoria on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:04 pm

  39. I think those who expect Rudd to come out with all guns blazing in defence of Assange really need to get a grip. Kevin Rudd has for a long time cultivated close ties with many in the USA establishment. You can argue whether this is a good thing or not but I seriously doubt he is going to put all that at risk by opposing the USA taking action under its laws to (as it sees it) protect the integrity of its security operations.
    The only major reservation I had about Rudd for a long time was his close ties to the back rooms of Washington, even though I thought his views on most other things were OK. Of course, after the revelations of the last few weeks, I now have quite a few more reservations!
    I am amazed that the left is now trying to claim Rudd as its own – he has never been anything other than a centrist social democrat. In practical policy terms, I think Julia Gillard is considerably to the left of Rudd.

    by ajm on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:05 pm

  40. Wilkie says he won’t support the inquiry in to Pokies because trial has some observable problems and they need to be fixed. Macklin says tell us what they are and we’ll work through them.

    More pathetic grandstanding by the primma donna Wilkie.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:05 pm

  41. Those using Google and Gmail might like to read this and adjust settings to protect privacy, if you haven’t already done so.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/if-you-use-google-you-may-want-to-read-this-20120229-1u1i9.html

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:08 pm

  42. ‘Teh left’ seem to forget that it was Rudd’s stance on gay marriage that led to the policy (under his leadership) of no change to the Marriage Act.

    A policy changed under Gillard’s leadership.

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:08 pm

  43. vic

    Dont forget Windsor and Oakeshott at the NPC at 12.30 today

    And primaries in the US to watch throughout the afternoon.

    by triton on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:10 pm

  44. GG

    Wilkie is really starting to look very foolish. Does he want reforms or not?

    by victoria on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:15 pm

  45. The charming Libs being charming to each other.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-in-a-froth-over-milk-20120228-1u13a.html

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:16 pm

  46. Five bills passed today. Must be getting up near 280.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:16 pm

  47. Isn’t it racist to assume that because one Aborigine has a certain viewpoint, therefore another one does to?

    It’s also akin to saying all indigenous Australians must vote a certain way, a ridiculous argument when you consider indigenous people have represented different political parties in this country – Labor, Liberal, Democrats, Greens. The was even an Aboriginal independent candidate who stood in my electorate last election.

    I’ve tended to scroll past the Mundine bashing as most of it has been highly ignorant and offensive.

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:17 pm

  48. GG,

    That’s a lovely photo of Our Sophie.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:18 pm

  49. Grog’s column today is another slap in the face to the msm.
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3857392.html

    Thanks, Fess. A really good piece, even by Grog’s fine standards. Nothing like cold hard evidence to give the lie to media neat-ups. Bet Murdoch’s Minions are sorry he was ‘outed’.

    by OzPol Tragic on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:19 pm

  50. vic,

    I remember Fielding opposed the alcopops taxes because they didn’t address the root problems of binge drinking.

    This behaviour of Wilkie reeks of the same sort of puritanical nonsense.

    I suspect Wilkie has at most 18 months left as a Parliamentarian. He might wan t to think about a lasting legacy rather than childish displays of petulence.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 29, 2012 at 12:19 pm

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