Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. toolman on horsey

    Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    Speaking of horses. I see Rupert Murdoch has lept to Rebecca Brooks defence. Saved a nag from the knackers. Greg Hoy salutes you, hacker.

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:06 pm

  2. Socceroos 4 Saudi 2

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:07 pm

  3. Costello copped nowhere near the stuff that the PM is.

    I have no problem with Julia letting rip, considering the snarkiness (thanks, Lewis) of the questions.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:09 pm

  4. Williams is coming across as someone afraid to do anything

    Ummm

    williams does do things sometimes

    whether he is afraid is another matter

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:09 pm

  5. Far be it for me to hobble the discussion, and also wanting to focus on the mane issues, might it just be that a Facebook site linked to RAR, full of the usual anti-Islamic and female-o-phobic short pants stuff has hit the light of day and that this is the Bombshell, the smoking gun, the gen that our armed forces should not be in Afghanistan because they have yet to grow up?

    by Boerwar on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:10 pm

  6. Yes, and they were both described (when delivering similar lines) as nasty and arrogant.

    We may have loved Keating, but a lot of what the political junkies saw as witty, the general public saw as arrogant – one of the words most often used to describe Keating.

    And Costello WAS nasty. He always came across as snide.

    You are absolutely right zoomster, they were heavily criticised and they were not popular with the public….but when they said these things they did it while laughing at the other side, when Gillard does it she wears her hatred on her sleave.

    All I am saying, is that IMO this is going to go down ever more negatively than the Costello and Keating stuff (lets face it, they were around for a decade before they plumbed the depths of unpopularity Gillard is at after just 1.5 years.

    by Mod Lib on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:10 pm

  7. There are exceedingly few occasions where any Labor MP, from the PM down, has used the words ‘carbon tax’ to describe the ‘carbon price’.

    For every thousand times they have used the word ‘carbon price’ there may be one example (to err is human) where they’ve used ‘tax’ instead.

    One of the downsides of t’net is that you only have to slip up once, make one wrong call, and it can be found almost instantly, however obscure it is, and then trotted out ad infinitum.

    From memory, when Gillard conceded it was a tax, the interviews up until then had concentrated on the semantics game of whether or not it was one or not, with the interviewers hammering that it was.

    Agreeing with the interviewer in this case may well have been a desperate attempt to try and actually discuss the issue, rather than spend another ten minutes quibbling about the word.

    Regardless, Gillard uses the word ‘carbon price’ about 9999.99% of the time.

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:10 pm

  8. but what she actually did express was that it was a tax.

    No Mod Lib she didn’t. She simply said that if the presenter was happy to call it a tax, that would be fine with her. Not that she agreed with it being an actual tax.

    Much like me saying I’m happy for you to refer to yourself as a moderate Liberal, but that shouldn’t be taken to mean I agree with your description of yourself.

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:11 pm

  9. gusface,

    Williams ain’t no William.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:11 pm

  10. The Finnigans

    Socceroos 4 Saudi 2

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_enVia5xyA

    by poroti on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:11 pm

  11. Gillard uses the word ‘carbon price’ about 9999.99% of the time.

    Ditto Combet.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:12 pm

  12. Williams ain’t no William.

    he certainly aint got any Bill

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:13 pm

  13. It’s worth watching the soccer just for the pleasure of Simon Hill’s commentary.

    by BK on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:13 pm

  14. Mr Jay and ‘sHonour are taking Mr Williams apart slowly and clinically.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:14 pm

  15. ModLib

    er, I heard reports that members of the Oppo were amused by some of those lines.

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:14 pm

  16. poroti, tonight is all Horsey, no cats, no red herrings

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:14 pm

  17. All I am saying, is that IMO this is going to go down ever more negatively than the Costello and Keating stuff (lets face it, they were around for a decade before they plumbed the depths of unpopularity Gillard is at after just 1.5 years.

    ModLib – neither Costello or PJK had somebody like Abbott and a MSM supporting him against the sitting PM. She has weathered far more than the two of them put together.

    by BH on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:15 pm

  18. No Mod Lib she didn’t. She simply said that if the presenter was happy to call it a tax, that would be fine with her. Not that she agreed with it being an actual tax.

    OK Confessions, lets go back to the transcript from 7:30:

    HEATHER EWART: With this carbon tax - you do concede it's a carbon tax, do you not?

    JULIA GILLARD: Oh, look, I'm happy to use the word tax, Heather. I understand some silly little collateral debate has broken out today. I mean, how ridiculous. This is a market-based mechanism to price carbon.

    You do concede its a carbon tax?
    I’m happy to use the word tax.
    I understand some silly little collateral debate has broken out today
    I mean, how ridiculous.

    So she says she concedes its a tax but she doesn’t agree with it being a tax.

    I see how you say Gillard can do no wrong. Even when she admits it she is wrong, but she can’t be wrong as she is never wrong so of course the quote must be wrong…oh YAY its the meeja again…phew!

    by Mod Lib on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:15 pm

  19. This little black duck

    Gillard uses the word ‘carbon price’ about 9999.99% of the time.

    Ditto Combet.

    After meeting and watching the chap during the wharf dispute I prefer this spelling of his name “Greg Combat” :)

    by poroti on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:15 pm

  20. How about Lindsay Tanner for ABC chair?

    A good choice but it looks like thousands have applied. We should hear who has grabbed the job very soon as March was seen as the outside month for the decision. Whoever gets the gig should be given a large axe.

    http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/power-move/judge-to-be-judged-on-abc-chairman-post/20111127778

    by joe2 on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:16 pm

  21. It’s worth watching the soccer

    Not on FTA, unfortunately.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:16 pm

  22. zoomster
    Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink
    ModLib

    er, I heard reports that members of the Oppo were amused by some of those lines.

    Wouldn’t surprise me, I thought they were great lines too. Just making a comment about her arrogance- won’t go down well with someone who has won a bitter leadership contest and who has to convince 74% of the Australian public to approve of her performance.

    by Mod Lib on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:16 pm

  23. The Finnigans

    poroti, tonight is all Horsey, no cats, no red herrings

    That may be true but how farrier are you prepared to go ?

    by poroti on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:17 pm

  24. Hey ModLib:

    I understand some silly little collateral debate has broken out today. I mean, how ridiculous.

    That’s the applicable part of the Gillard quote – the bit of it that refers to today’s little debate you’ve been having, anyway.

    I understand your dilemma. Your side of politics isn’t providing you with any policy meat to chew on, so semantics will have to do I suppose.

    Keep at it. I hope you win your small victory for strict interpretation over common sense. It probably rates as a worthy cause from where you stand.

    by Aguirre on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:17 pm

  25. @Mod Lib/3167,

    She is still setting a price on Carbon, so she ain’t wrong there either.

    by zoidlord on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:18 pm

  26. poroti,

    Finns is no shoe-in.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:18 pm

  27. Mr Williams was “aware” of many things, and did bugger all.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:19 pm

  28. That may be true but how farrier are you prepared to go ?

    poroti with Rebekah & Horsey, to the end of the world

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:19 pm

  29. New Zealand article from this morning

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10788661

    Gillard rejoins fight on policy front
    By Greg Ansley
    5:30 AM Wednesday Feb 29, 2012

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard has pushed her policy agenda back into the forefront of Australian politics as the dust begins to settle on the long and debilitating leadership battle with former Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.

    Worth a read. Interesting to see how outsiders see & summarise things. Completely different tone from much of the rubbish in our papers. Worth noting that kiwis generally know much more about Aussie politics then we do about theirs. For those who don’t know, The New Zealand Herald is a broadsheet, considered somewhat Conservative/Centre Right, but not agenda pushing like some papers here. It’s the main Auckland paper. Each town has one predominant daily paper only. Note that in NZ, there are no Murdoch papers.

    by Leroy on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:20 pm

  30. All I am saying, is that IMO this is going to go down ever more negatively than the Costello and Keating stuff..

    Difference being the public if they hated Costello or Keating still had respect for them, likewise Howard.

    Gillard is disliked by many and I think probably not respected by many. This is maybe one reason why what she says doesn’t mean anything to the public, just monotonous annoying words they would rather not listen too. She spent all her political capital plus interest back in 2010, she now has an overdraft account.

    by Thomas Paine on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:20 pm

  31. Carine looks as impressed as I am.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:20 pm

  32. Gillard 4 Abbott 2

    by The Finnigans on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  33. Aguirre:

    Its not me arguing with her its you and Confessions and GG (as you have no choice but to defend the ALP, even when the ALP leaders argue the opposite case to you).

    So when Gillard conceded it was a tax, what she meant was it wasn’t a tax.

    OK, got it….at least she is consistent I guess.

    I understand your dilemma

    I understand your dilemma very well too! LOL ;)

    Its good we understand each other….hehe

    by Mod Lib on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  34. GG 3149, you spin too hard. The MRRT doesn’t cease to be a tax just because the proceeds are wrapped up in pink bows and spread to the poor of the land.

    Labor alas lost the crude debate when Abbott (and editors who love a 3 letter swear word over a more complex concept) fooled the punters into thinking this was a tax in the sense of a revenue raiser, rather than an environmental incentive. In this, Gillard’s genius as a fixer, but with a derisory record on supporting climate change action, breathed death into a political lead balloon.

    by Graeme Orr on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  35. So it’s OK for Keating and Costello to be arrogant – indeed, it would appear it was a plus – but not OK for Gillard?

    Hmm, wonder what the difference could be?

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  36. Australia (4-2 from 1-2) almost did an Arsenal (5-2 from 0-2).

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:26 pm

  37. toolman has lost it on twitter

    SRSLY

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:26 pm

  38. Leroy

    Appreciate reading a straight forward summary on the state of play.

    by victoria on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:26 pm

  39. Well, Costello had no balls.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:26 pm

  40. zoomster

    So it’s OK for Keating and Costello to be arrogant – indeed, it would appear it was a plus – but not OK for Gillard?

    Hmm, wonder what the difference could be?

    The Zegna and the hammock ?

    by poroti on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:27 pm

  41. Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann
    Reply RetweetedRetweet
    Delete
    FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details No Latika. I am power deprived and bored. Looking out from the 8th floor over a misty Riley St

    19m Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann
    Reply RetweetedRetweet Delete FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details
    Can you describe Kitchen Cabinet in 140 characters or less Lyndal, for the power deprived. Good news have found cigar and lighter in dark

    22m Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann
    Reply RetweetedRetweet Delete FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details
    You shoild be in bed Ross Solly. And my aren’t there some sad, lemon sucking souls on Twitter. Lighten up people.

    32m Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann
    Reply RetweetedRetweet Delete FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details
    Speaking of horses. I see Rupert Murdoch has lept to Rebecca Brooks defence. Saved a nag from the knackers. Greg Hoy salutes you, hacker.

    52m Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann
    Reply RetweetedRetweet Delete FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details
    Thanks for all expressions of concern about power crisis. Perhaps have consumed more red wine than advisable. Can’t see how much.

    1h Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann
    Reply RetweetedRetweet Delete FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details
    And I see Peter Singer is on Lateline tonight. He much approves of people who love animals (in all ways). Bugger, all these shows No power

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:27 pm

  42. gusface,

    Please explain.

    by This little black duck on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:27 pm

  43. gusface

    Sounds like a power blackout is making Toolman sad and bored

    by victoria on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  44. And I see Peter Singer is on Lateline tonight. He much approves of people who love animals (in all ways)

    chris has just jumped the shark

    by gusface on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  45. Graeme Orr

    you point to Gillard’s problem – the media’s determination to just make crap up.

    The media kept pushing the term ‘carbon tax’, long before the Opposition woke up to the idea that it was a killer line. Doesn’t matter what terminology the PM or Ministers used, it was referred to as a carbon tax…to the point where an article would quote the PM determinedly using the words ‘carbon price’ proceeded by wtte ‘In defending the carbon tax, the PM said…”

    It’s exactly the same way the BER is never referred to (despite the many glowing reports on its implementation) without some derogatory adjective tacked on to it. (I once pointed out to a journo that he had included the BER in a list of ALP ‘failures’ and he replied by saying that I was right, it shouldn’t be there, but it had slipped in there somehow….)

    If the media is determined to misreport and distort what people say, and deliberately misportray situations, then it becomes impossible to get the real message out.

    by zoomster on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:30 pm

  46. Yes Mod Lib, it is silly. Because any objective assessment of Australia’s carbon price cannot possibly be described as a tax. Which means the PM lied. It isn’t a tax!!! FMD it’s the Abbott-Credlin-Loughnane axis of Stupid all over.

    Meanwhile the PM has been subjected to a vicious misogyny, which is appearing as endorsement in comments you make in response to zoomster about Costello etc. If arrogant is acceptable for Keating/Costello, why not the PM?

    by confessions on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:30 pm

  47. bemused
    Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    ajm @ 3043

    Perhaps the Goverment needs to make a highly political appointment as chair of the ABC. Perhaps that’s the only way the general manager and those lower down will get the message

    I hereby announce my availability and await the call. :evil:

    I must say you are infinitely better qualified than Maurice Newman.

    Actually, I think it might have to come down to that in the end, but it’s difficult in a minority situation. I think Justice James Spigelman would be an excellent choice.

    In less than a year as head of the Media Department with his Minister Dr Moss Cass he transformed the shape of radio via fm, encouraging community groups to set up stations and get licences.

    He has the intellect to grasp what is wrong with the current ABC News and Current Affairs and change that in a short time. He may have a few problems with Scott but I think he’s up to it.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  48. Another interesting post of observation from preston Towers.

    http://prestoninstitute.wordpress.com/2012/02/28/abbottsteam/

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  49. Note that in NZ, there are no Murdoch papers.

    Slice of heaven, indeed.

    by smithe on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  50. I have never seen or heard any occasion when Gillard has called thenew ETS, a Carbon Tax.

    The closest it came was he time she told Heather Ewart that she is happy to use the word “tax” (or possibly it was just the word “Carbon”).

    However, she did not say what she was happy to use the word for.

    Anyway, the system is clearly an ETS rather than a tax, in terms of the big arguments of the 2006-2010 about whether we should have a trading mechanism (ALP) or a tax (Abbot, Hunt) or both (Greens).

    by ___cog___ on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:32 pm

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