Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. briefly,

    Your posts read as if Carr got the FM job… he didn’t. I really can’t understand what you are getting worked up about.

    by Tobe on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:31 am

  2. 3392
    Oakeshott Country

    I would hope that caucus is full of people who have the best interests of the country, government and party at heart. I find your opinion that it is full of apparatchiks looking for advancement shocks me to the core.

    Who said anything about apparatchiks? Not me. This is just really about leading – about motivating, organising, giving direction, creating a sense of common purpose and shared achievement. It is really not complicated. That is what leaders should do. This makes teams strong and resilient; it gives them the energy and confidence they need to have if they are to pursue their goals. This is exactly what Rudd failed to do. It is precisely what JG has to start doing!!

    by briefly on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:35 am

  3. Yes and having someone of Carr’s experience would achieve all those things – the drones in caucus could learn alot from him

    by Oakeshott Country on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:37 am

  4. 3400


    Your posts read as if Carr got the FM job… he didn’t. I really can’t understand what you are getting worked up about.

    I was not that worked up……really just observing that it would be crap idea to drop Carr into the Senate and give him a big job.

    I have a few other things to say about good team leadership as well….something that should be on everyone’s mind, including, in particular, the mind of the PM.

    by briefly on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:41 am

  5. We have to agree to disagree, OC.

    by briefly on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:42 am

  6. I think I have wasted almost as many words as Shanahan on this non-event. :)

    I agree OC, It would have been interesting if Carr had worked out… and I don’t regard seat filling job applications as top secret, so I’m not sure this is much of a “leak” to worry about either.

    Goodnight all.

    by Tobe on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:43 am

  7. THE AUD is up strongly tonight….on the strength of the huge sums (EU 530 billion) being splashed around by the ECB, I suppose. I admit, if some of that was to ripple in my direction, I would feel quite cheerful too.

    by briefly on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:47 am

  8. The Leveson video feed is not working.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 1, 2012 at 1:53 am

  9. Puff, try bbc democracy live, its working here. Good luck.

    by Bill B. on Mar 1, 2012 at 2:14 am

  10. Puff, this the link I am using.

    by Bill B. on Mar 1, 2012 at 2:22 am

  11. duckie gone to the nest?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 1, 2012 at 3:15 am

  12. Puff,

    Yes. The feeds, BBC and Leveson, kept dropping out and Williams was giving me the pip.

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 4:28 am

  13. 3.16pm: Veteran media commentator Ray Snoddy has just tweeted:

    Raymond Snoddy@RaymondSnoddy
    Interesting that James Murdoch re-located to the States before resigning as executive chairman of News International – how convenient


    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 4:57 am

  14. Disliked within News Corp and disgraced by the phone-hacking scandal, James Murdoch played corporate politics – and lost


    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:14 am

  15. Mr. Murdoch said that James would now focus on the company’s pay-television businesses and its international operations.


    Nice little hidey hole for James. Not deep enough if the US “authorities” would like him to assist them with their inquiries.

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:20 am

  16. Gillard red-faced over Carr bungle

    Methinks it’s more like Coorey is covering his red face over the 73-29 Bungle –

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:40 am

  17. After Mr Carr confirmed he had been made an offer, Ms Gillard, under questioning from the opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman, Julie Bishop, said: ”Don’t believe everything you read”.

    Be interesting to see if the Oops Floor Mop lines up for more treatment in QT today.

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:46 am

  18. It is obviously now that Hatcher, Coorey & Shananana still cant get over their red faces over their roles in #Ruddstoration #auspol

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:47 am

  19. Shananana has shifted his goal post so many times over attacking PM on Carr, even the Socceroos’d have problem scoring

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:53 am

  20. A case of “Look, over there!”, I think.

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:53 am

  21. Sayonara Davy, i wanna be free –

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:57 am

  22. Anyone find out about what happened to Oohmann last night?

    If he was sleeping on the park bench he would have been exposed to 50mm of rain.

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:59 am

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Andrew Dyson looks at Julia’s artistic abilities.×0.jpg
    Alan Moir not too impresses with James Mirdoch’s ambitions.
    A subtle one on Rudd from Cathy Wilcox.
    Gerry Harvey knows only one tactic. Whinge!
    David Rowe on Clive Palmer’s send off by Frank Lowy. Check out the bum crack.

    by BK on Mar 1, 2012 at 7:31 am

  24. Some good US cartoons on Santorum’s positions.

    by BK on Mar 1, 2012 at 7:39 am

  25. As far ad I can tell Shannahan seems to be reporting the Carr events based on either: 1. Speculation or 2. Based on the actions/ruminations of a staffer. Shannahan claims he has sources within the Labor party feeding him info, given the propensity for News International to listen in on other people’s conversations I wouldn’t be surprised if a staffers phone is tapped or some other listening device is installed. Don’t jump to the conclusion it’s necessarily disfunction within the Labor party. Remember :monkey: takes his orders from Mordor. Just picture Rupert as Sauron, Shannahan as Saruman and :monkey: as Grima Worm tongue

    by Smaug on Mar 1, 2012 at 7:40 am

  26. Nice to see the Murdoch’s doing their bit to ease unemployment in the UK. Let’s hope their faceless men in Australia show similar self-sacrifice.

    by Son of foro on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:01 am

  27. Dennis is really doing a hissy on this one.

    After so many ill-fated denials and obfuscations in recent months, Gillard risked another because the alternative was to be seen to be lacking authority and credibility as Prime Minister only 24 hours into a new era of “assertiveness”.

    If Smith now gets the job of foreign minister, Gillard’s impotence on ministerial selections and renewal will be confirmed.

    Love the way Dennis spells it out for his readers.

    It’s such a convoluted, complicated condemnation, he has to set it out point by point for his readers so they get it.

    He’s basically condemning her for not responding in the correct manner to his accusations. From what I can see of Ol’ Coke Bottles scribblings on the subject, she’s ditto.

    These people are running around behind the PM, going through her garbage, up ending Otto bins, reading over scraps of paper they found on the floor, talking to nobodies, unravelling their own belly fluff, drawing lots of arrows on whiteboards and scribbling things in the margin to make their points.

    And it’s all over an appointment that was never made, and never offered. When they write that Carr was “offered” the FM gig, what they mean is that he was “offered” it by someone without the authority to do so. That doesn’t sound like a proper offer to me.

    The references to Australia Day are references to their interpretation of Australia Day, not what actually happened. Gillard’s basic crime seems to be “Confounding The Media With Intent To Govern”, a capital offence, it seems, nowadays.

    They are expecting a level of perfection from her that they wouldn’t dare dream of expecting from Abbott or (God forbid), what they would have expected of Howard.

    As they build these phoney “crises” they add them to each other. Hence Shanahan’s inclusion of a quote from “one Labor MP” who said “this is Australia Day all over again”. The idea is to build a momentum of “damaged goods” with Gillard therefore not beiong allowed to make any more mistakes and, importantly, not being allowed to be seen by them to have made any more mistakes..

    If she loses a heel off one of her shoes they’ll be writing how “gaffe prone” she is, with “PM Stumbles” headlines.

    An out of the blue tip: if Gillard sacks McClelland – the Emergency Services Minister – in the middle of the NSW floods, then suddenly they’ll discover how vital that portfolio is, and how necessary it is to have it in the Cabinet, and what a cock-up it is to fire him now in the middle of a crisis. It’ll be quite a change from their previous “eh?” attitude to the same portfolio when she had her last reshuffle.

    by Bushfire Bill on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:02 am

  28. Love the bootstrap roundup on the OO’s front page.

    It’s all set out for us in a convenient mud map:

    Matthew Franklin and Dennis Shanahan
    BOB Carr has directly contradicted Julia Gillard’s denial that he was offered the post of foreign minister in her government this week.

    * DENNIS SHANAHAN: Offer denial another failed test
    * TROY BRAMSTON: Call Bob to Canberra
    * GREG SHERIDAN: Carr drive-by a loss for Gillard
    * DEFENCE: Disruption fear with Smith move
    * IN DEPTH: Labor in crisis

    by Bushfire Bill on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:09 am

  29. To the OO, I say (thanks, Jane): “But, darling, you are effluent!”

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:12 am

  30. I guess we can conclude that this government is now being run by Stephen Smith & Simon Crean, & Ms Gillard is their puppet.
    The machine men are firmly in charge. :)

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:13 am

  31. Still stuck on the same record Thornleigh Rudd Man?

    by ltep on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:25 am

  32. As Smaug asks @ #3424 is Shannahan’s source inside the Labor Party animal ie human or mineral ie a bug.

    Why would News Limited bug British personalities and not bug Australians. In fact didn’t an Australian personality get damages from News Limited so it would be most surprising if News hasn’t bugged the Prime Minister’s Office given its campaign to install the Prime Minister it choses, which isn’t Tony Abbott

    by billie on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:26 am

  33. * DENNIS SHANAHAN: James’s resignation another failed test
    * TROY BRAMSTON: Call Rupert to London
    * GREG SHERIDAN: James drive-by a loss for Rupert
    * DEFENCE: Disruption fear with Horse move
    * IN DEPTH: News Corp in crisis

    Not that I think they’re trying to distract us …

    by Son of foro on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:27 am

  34. G’day, Bludgers.

    G’day Finns

    Shananana has shifted his goal post so many times over attacking PM on Carr, even the Socceroos’d have problem scoring

    Given only the prime Minister can offer a ministry …

    Exhibit 1, your worship

    FORMER NSW premier Bob Carr has directly contradicted Julia Gillard’s denial that he was offered the post of foreign minister in her government this week.

    The Prime Minister’s handling of the disclosure of Labor’s attempt to draft Mr Carr has sparked fresh concerns among colleagues about her political judgment

    Exhibit 2,

    He {Mr Carr} said last night that “party officials” had talked to him about the possibility of filling the Senate vacancy and being considered for the foreign ministry post. “Prime Minister Gillard had definitely not made any offer about the foreign affairs ministry nor had any one on her behalf,” he said.

    Ah, ha! Some “party officials had sounded Carr out, but not offered. Despite the OO’s Mr Shanahan’s attempts to convince you otherwise, here is a very great difference between sounded out and offered.

    Exhibit 3: Ms Gillard emphasises that, in regard to decisions (inc who would be FM) she is the only one who makes decisions

    Yesterday morning, Ms Gillard said: “The story that’s on the front page of The Australian newspaper today is completely untrue.

    “Let me make this very clear – of course my door is open to talk to people as I work my way through this reshuffle, but the decisions are mine and I’ll make them.

    Exhibit 4

    Late yesterday, as it emerged that Ms Gillard had spoken to Mr Carr on Monday night at least twice, the former premier released a clarifying statement stressing that while party officers had talked to him about the possibility of filling Senator Arbib’s position and the possibility of the foreign ministry, Ms Gillard made no offers about the ministry

    Exhibit 5: But Shanahan insists that this isn’t truthful

    It was also at odds with comments by the leader of the government in the House of Representatives, Anthony Albanese, who confirmed in parliament that Mr Carr had been under consideration as foreign minister

    Ah hah! Now we’re back to under consideration. So, one assumes, were others, eg Mr Smith – though maybe not Mr Crean who wanted the job.

    But that’s not what Shanahan and the OO wanted, is it! THIS is what’s peeving Shanahan:

    Exhibit 6:

    MPs said last night Ms Gillard’s unambiguous rejection of The Australian’s reporting had made it seem she was denying she had held talks with Mr Carr, when it was clear they had held phone discussions.

    Not she (PM) was denying but made it seem she was denying – shock, horror, making Shanahan look like a liar … ‘ood ‘av thunk it! So he has to get in a defence:

    “It might be that she was just saying that there was no cabinet mutiny over the Carr thing,” one source said. “But that wasn’t how it sounded.

    Sounded? To the poor gullible innocents who wrote yesterday’s heap of crap! would you believe. Poor widdle pweciouss petal Dennis Shanahan FFS!

    Now what Shanahan wants the public to believe is that, if the PM spoke to Mr Carr – and both have said he was approached over filling the Senate vacancy – she must have offered him the FM job. Yet both the PM and Mr Carr stated that she did not.

    But why keep pursuing this convoluted jesuitical non sequitur crap?

    Exhibit 7: Trying to make a case for Tony Abbott’s unsubstantiated lies to the Parliament during his daily SSO manic rant:

    In parliament, the opposition seized on the reshuffle discussions, questioning Ms Gillard on her dealings with Mr Carr.

    The Prime Minister refused to address questions of detail, turning back Mr Abbott’s claim that her government was run by “faceless men” by telling thim he should be more concerned about the “useless men” in his parliamentary team.

    Asked by Mr Abbott whether she could confirm Mr Carr had been offered the foreign ministry, she said: “Don’t believe everything you read.”

    Mr Abbott accused Ms Gillard of leaving Mr Carr “humiliated and desolate

    Well, Shanahan, Shakespeare had your measure centuries ago in his famous exposee of such jesuitical equivocation during the trials following the attempt to blow up parliament (Macbeth. II iii):

    (Knock.) Knock, knock! Who’s there, in the other
    devil’s name? Faith, here’s an equivocator, that could
    swear in both the scales against either scale,
    who com-
    mitted treason enough for God’s sake, yet could
    not equivocate to heaven. O, come in, equivocator.

    That’s Shanahan to a “T”.

    He and Abbott are stuck in the past, the distant past – the 17th century’s first decade!

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:27 am

  35. OPT, are you BB?

    BB, are you OPT?

    Onya both!

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:30 am

  36. They can’t blame Rudd or his supporters for this leak, someone inside her camp is doing the damage.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:30 am

  37. Morning All

    How does Labor do it??? Once again having a great week and stuff it up by doing stupid things that a aggressive media will obviously jump all over – i.e. solar hot water and the Bob Carr fiasco

    Just pathetic guys – GET IT TOGETHER!!!

    Looking forward to seeing Clive Palmer being linked more closely to the LNP – “if he can’t run a sporting club, how can he run a state government”

    Pokies – what the hell is Wilkie up to??? he is killing off any chance of significant reform – Labor can not, and should not, agree to $1 bets

    What a week of highs and lows – luckily we have the Greens, Windsor and Oakeshott as the voices of reason

    Frustrating, so frustrating

    by womble on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:36 am

  38. It’s bit late for you to start talking sense now, Gerry.

    After the “wind”, this is the “whirlwind” bit:

    RETAIL veteran Gerry Harvey has warned of more failed businesses and job losses this year unless the Australian economy quickly returns to growth, and jittery consumers switch from paying down their credit cards to patronising shopping centres.

    He’s spent so much time with the shock jocks complaining that the government has ruined the country that people are starting to believe him, and are acting on that… or rather, not acting much at all.

    He’s regaled us with stories of how “the Carbon Tax and rising interest rates” are killing us off, that now the punters are thinking, “Maybe he’s right.”

    It might have worked if Abbott had gotten his early election, but he didn’t. They could have flipped the switch to razzamatazz once they were in power (they’re still talking about it, actually, Hadley regularly states that “We need an election right now to restore confidence”), but in the meantime, Gerry and his partisan mates, pretending that all they care about is the good of the nation, are going broke waiting for their dream result to happen.

    It reminds me of the story from Steinbeck’s Tobacco Road, where an old man fell helplessly in love with a young girl, who ignored his advances. Desperate, the old man contrived to hang himself from a rafter in a barn, expecting to be pulled down by a passer-by before the rope did its work. That would prove he loved her.

    Just as he jumped off the chair, a breeze came by and slammed the barn door shut…

    The best laid plans can turn to shit, Gerry. You opened your big, whingeing mouth one too many times. It wasn’t supposed to turn out like this at all, but if you continually talk down the economy, the first casualty is confidence, with the first casualty of the loss of confidence being your shop… and sadly, the shops of many others who wished you’d shut up and run your business, rather than spruik for Abbott and his bunch of useless trash talkers.

    Harvey is a perfect illustration of my oft stated belief that there are consequences for everything in politics. It’s not a reality TV show. You can’t mock the economy without, eventually, a lot of punters believing you.

    Likewise, you can’t vote the government out but keep the good bits of their policies that their opponents have vowed to destroy.

    The moaners have only been able to get away with whingeing because things have been so good. If the nation was in a true emergency, genuinely at sovereign risk as we’re constantly told, they’d keep their mouths shut and get on with it. There might even be a law passed against the kind of whingeing in which Harvey, Hadley, Hockey, Abbott, the Business Council and all the rest have indulged themselves.

    Whingeing is a luxury. Retail disaster, often foretold by the whingers, is one of the inevitable consequences of it.

    It’s not Celebrity Big Brother. It’s real.

    by Bushfire Bill on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:37 am

  39. Loon Pond let’s loose on Crikey Bernard and Laura Tingle even cops a slap.

    He (Keane) seems to have shifted from eco terrorist to corporate shill for the press gallery, but perhaps next time he should let the Murdochians, the Fairfaxians, and the ABC defend themselves.
    scroll upwards from comments

    by joe2 on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:38 am

  40. A question for those more knowledgeable than I on these matters.

    Does BOF have any part to play in approving the nomination of the replacement senator?

    I know the laws were changed many years ago after Bjelke Petersen in Qld and Lewis in NSW corrupted the system for their own ends.

    by Darn on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:41 am

  41. OzPol T

    Thank you. At least now I know why I was confused :)

    The media’s ability to twist facts to suit their theme is frightening. But it was always thus. We just didn’t have PB before.

    by lizzie on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:42 am

  42. Does BOF have any part to play in approving the nomination of the replacement senator?

    I know the laws were changed many years ago after Bjelke Petersen in Qld and Lewis in NSW corrupted the system for their own ends.

    Since the Constitution was amended to make the replacement the party’s choice, not the Premier’s, every replacement has gone according to the rules.

    In any case, O’Farrell trying to interfere wouldn’t do any good, as the majority isn’t so thin in the Senate.

    by Bushfire Bill on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:44 am

  43. I guess we can conclude that this government is now being run by Stephen Smith & Simon Crean, & Ms Gillard is their puppet.
    The machine men are firmly in charge. :)

    why is that Evan ? is it because the PM did not appoint who the OO told her to appoint ?

    by Mick Collins on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:46 am

  44. I see gg has fallen for the old canard of basing an argument on fertile imaginings when met with a lack of evidence and contrary assertions from the person who is really gunna (insert wild claim without basis)

    by WeWantPaul on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:52 am

  45. It is is now conventional and it is in O’Farrell’s interest to wave through to Canberra whatever talent their is in the NSW ALP.

    by shellbell on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:56 am

  46. Morning all

    Appreciate the great links today, and thanks BB and OPT for your incisive analysis on Shamas.

    It is all so frustrating. Considering yesterday Oakeshott and Windsor had a great story to tell so far on the achievements of the past 18 months, and what they expect in future.

    by victoria on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:59 am

  47. A few random thoughts:

    I didn’t see a lot of news yesterday, but the way I heard the “completely untrue” line on ABC radio was in response to a question asking whether Carr had been canvassed prior to Arbib’s resignation. Was the question actually asking whether the PM had been thinking about Carr at all?

    As far as Smith getting his dirty on, I guess he was seen to be ‘owed’ because he stepped aside for Rudd after the last election without complaint (publicly). Interestingly he hasn’t come out of this all neat and tidy, certainly in the eyes of the press he comes across as a bit petulant, so nice to see they have already started in on any possible third contenders for the future.

    Lastly, the idiots who have decided that they still need to remain best friends with the press and provide them with every little tidbit and piece of gossip need a good slap. As a member it makes me abso-f**king-lutely despair that they can’t display an iota of discipline, especially after the past week. If they keep playing like they’re in opposition then I’m sure they’ll get to sit back in their old seats on the left of the Speaker soon enough. Fools.

    by Fiz on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:01 am

  48. “their is”, oh dear, there is

    by shellbell on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:02 am

  49. Why it is useful to have a public anti-corruption body:

    by shellbell on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:04 am

  50. We want Paul,

    It’s better to start posting after you have had a few caffeine fixes.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:06 am

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