Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. “Pretty sloppy, Joe” – Bradbury in the House.

    by triton on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:12 pm

  2. Shock jock radio is so Sydney and just does not work in Melbourne.

    Yes. Melbournians prefer their bigotry and hatred in print.

    by Son of foro on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:14 pm

  3. Bureau of Stats figure on Mining Capital expenditure.

    Didn’t someone tell us that the Minig Tax and Carbon Tax would kill off the mining industry?

    MINING

    Estimate 5 for Mining for 2011-12 is $94,622 million. This is 66.2% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2010-11. Estimate 5 is 1.1% higher than Estimate 4 for 2011-12. Buildings and structures is 2.4% higher while equipment, plant and machinery is 4.6% lower than the corresponding fourth estimates for 2011-12.

    Estimate 1 for Mining for 2012-13 is $119,762 million. This is 51.6% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2011-12. Buildings and structures is 52.9% higher and equipment, plant and machinery is 44.0% higher than the corresponding first estimates for 2011-12.

    by sprocket_ on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:15 pm

  4. Andrew

    “I think the craziest thing about the “liar” crap is that PM Gillard is probably the most honest PM we have had

    the carbon tax was not a lie
    she did not offer Carr FM- he has confirmed that- this is not a lie”

    If Julia says she did not lie then she didn’t? Carrs clearly trying to save her backside, unsuccessfully I might add.

    by Desert Fox on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:15 pm

  5. Melburnians

    by triton on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:15 pm

  6. triton
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    GD

    maybe Education if O’Connor gets Immigration.

    Which Education? There’s no longer a single ministry, though there probably should be.

    Good point, triton. I think O’Connor was enlisted last time because Garrett was perceived as not a big enough hitter (when a few attacks would cut holes in the opposition). The had to share when Garrett resisted going.

    Actually, although it’s unclear to me who does what, it seems to have worked OK in parliament at least where both have been scoring well. Garrett has probably lifted his game because of the threat.

    But if they think he still needs a helper to go in hard, maybe Dreyfus is the man. O’Connor helped neutralise the boat issue before Christmas. He could probably handle the whole portfolio.

    I don’t think Bowen should be sacked despite supporting Rudd. After Gillard, he bore the worst of the media attacks and held his line, even if ultimately he didn’t get far.

    Maybe Trade if Emmo gets FA.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:18 pm

  7. Bemused @ # 3512

    ”… it does show is that Julia has lost none of her ability to mis-handle a trivial matter and turn it into something much more damaging.”

    I am at a loss to reconcile the above by “Bemused and what appear to be the facts.

    What Bullsh*t! Only in Orwell’s “looking Glass” world of 1984 & its Ministry of Truth, or The Guardian’s satire on the way the MSM & social media pervert justice by reversing natural justice by blaming the victims.

    The TRUTH is that Shanahan & Co-writers created the whole thing based on what was “reported” (the word they used yesterday), passed on by a Liberal source (ditto).

    Today, they’ve published a markedly different account of their source & how the info was acquired – and that combined with their “explanations” give the lie to yesterday’s statements

    The TRUTH is that the Prime Minister did nothing wrong; but Shanahan – and Abbott & Pyne who, based on yesterday’s untruthful article, ranted untruthfully and without a shred of evidence – did. They defamed & calumniated the nation’s Prime Minister – both serious sins in the Catholic Catechism of the religion both pretend to respect – based on what now appears to be a tissue of lies.

    If Abbott has an atom of decency in his body, esp his mind, he’ll apologise to the PM for defamed & calumniated; but he’s as gutless as he is dishonest: the most gutless and downright dishonest LOTO in Australia’s history

    So Shanahan and co-writers have to explain which of the explanations – if any – is true. Gillard and Carr already have, and been substantiated by others. Shanahan, Abbott & Pyne are still blaming the victim.

    Try writing the TRUTH, mate!

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:18 pm

  8. The initial plan was bad enough. But Gillard also looked weak, seemingly overruled by “faceless men”, so when confronted by journalists, she went in hard: “The story that’s on the front page of The Australian newspaper today is completely untrue.”

    Yet Carr has confirmed that he discussed with “party officials” the possibility of taking the Senate spot and being considered for foreign affairs minister – even if he said the PM did not make the offer.

    And if Gillard was telling the truth, she could have easily repeated her denial in Parliament when twice asked to do so by the opposition.

    Are we supposed to believe that Carr’s discussion with party officials about taking the senate spot and becoming FM were done WITHOUT the PM’s knowledge???
    What authority she has in the ALP!!!

    by Desert Fox on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm

  9. I can’t believe the Libs are still carrying on with this BS about Carr.

    by Gary on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm

  10. The good news is that Mr Romney has pledged not to ‘…light my hair on fire…’ to gain support.

    The bad news is that Mr Romney has pledged not to ‘…light my hair on fire…’.

    by Boerwar on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm

  11. Sorry for the bold. My other project calls & I rushed to finish it.

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:20 pm

  12. Because the Carr issue was poorly handled Labor managed to make a mountain out of a molehill. The issue will blow over quickly but it has again made it difficult for the PM to get clean air and re-connect with the Australian people.

    More important who is still leaking in Labor?

    by DavidWH on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:21 pm

  13. I don’t think the average voter will be at all interested in this Carr crap. The fact that we have DS sprouting it here shows that it is a Lib camapign to discredit the PM. Keep spinning DS.

    by Gary on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:22 pm

  14. Why won't she deny this in parliament???

    She has denied it. She has made it clear that the story in The Australian is wrong!

    If Shamanigan had something, he should put up! He failed to adequately put up, so he should shut up!

    by Centre on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:22 pm

  15. Joe O'Brien ‏ @joeobrien24 Close
    Workplace Rel Min bill Shorten live on #abcnews24 shortly on pay rates for truckies .. with TWU rep
    12:22 PM - 1 Mar 12

    by Leroy on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:23 pm

  16. I dont understand the interest generated by this whole non-story about Carr.

    by lefty e on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:24 pm

  17. Because the Carr issue was poorly handled Labor managed to make a mountain out of a molehill.

    No, that is happening now by the Libs and the media. How did Labor handle it poorly?

    by Gary on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:24 pm

  18. We need to remember that the good folk who wrote the playbook for Mitt, Rick and Newt also wrote the playbook for Peta, Brian and Tony.

    Fortunately, Mr Abbott is fairly imflammble. He hardly has any hair left.

    by Boerwar on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:24 pm

  19. The former Premier accepted (the offer of FM) and he booked his flight to Canberra. If nothing had happened, why would the former Premier of New South Wales book his flight to Canberra? On Tuesday morning, senior cabinet ministers told the Prime Minister that this just wasn’t on. But they did not just tell the Prime Minister, they leaked to the Sydney Morning Herald. Then, having bullied and leaked, they successfully intimidated the Prime Minister into withdrawing the offer. The final act in this sorry story: Sam Dastyari called Bob Carr to say that the Senate spot would go to someone else after all.

    Why won’t she deny this in parliament???

    A complete beat up by the murdoch press who overnight lost their key leader in the UK. the murdoch press have zero credibility and willingly pursue their own politicial agenda through fabrications and concocted stories. This FM stuff is a non story. There is nothing lied about at all as no offer was made plain and simple. Facts clearly elude you desert fox.

    by the spectator on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:26 pm

  20. I think that it is very clear from that Essential poll that Australians on both sides of the political divide strongly support the Govt taking action to assist him.

    However we have already seen that Labor are very good at ignoring the public will of late, and that Gillard is especially fawning to the US.

    So Assange has no chance of Gillard Labor doing anything in particular to protect him from what is obviously an attempt to get him extradited so he can again be handed on to the US for a fit-up. He would be even more unlucky if he were in Australia as it is obvious Gillard would hand him on as soon as his feet touched the ground here.

    Maybe Rudd can have one last stand on the issue of Assange. One can hope.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:27 pm

  21. Daretotread @ # 3612

    ”Ratsars

    “What YOU think is irrelevant. What Smith and Crean think IS relevant. GET IT. It only matters if by actions Gillard has P**d off power brokers like Crean and Smith and if they are upset enough to restart destabilisation. It is much too early to make a judgement call on that.”

    What a mature and considered response. I think not.

    My views are as relevant or irrelevant as everyone else on this blog. So could I suggest that you apply your irrational and childish thoughts to yourself?

    Crean and Smith, as senior members of the Government, are entitled to their opinions as I would suggest are all members of the Government. You may agree or disagree with their opinions on any issue as you please but I fail to see what that has to do with this as I would have thought that though the decision is Gillard’s she (and any prudent leader) would run these sorts of decisions post at least her Cabinet members.

    In respect of Smiths begaviour I suggest that you read the post from “lizzie” @# 2625.

    However I notice you were unable or unwilling to answer the question I posed in my earlier post.

    by Ratsars on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:28 pm

  22. without wanting to be too precious about things, but who gives a rats’ arse about Bob Carr and an alleged Senate spot?

    Compare with Abbott promising his vote to Reith as Liberal Party President – on camera – and then dudding him.

    by sprocket_ on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:28 pm

  23. If you are wondering how Ms Gillard managed to make petrol prices surge, don’t read this morning’s Straits Times. They don’t even mention Ms Gillard. A/c The Straits Times, a bunch of speculators is adding as much as a quarter to the price of crude.

    by Boerwar on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:28 pm

  24. imflammble

    I guess you mean “inflammable”? Means the same as “flammable”. Try “non-flammable.”

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:28 pm

  25. Perhaps comments like these are why the Oakeshott/Windsor speech didn’t get much coverage:

    Mr Oakeshott said that in his first meeting with Julia Gillard since Monday's Labor leadership ballot against Mr Rudd, the prime minister had appeared like a "weight was off her shoulders".

    Mr Windsor said he believed Mr Rudd, who is now a backbencher, would "probably retire hurt".

    He also revealed that during the post-election negotiations on minority government in 2010 he had put to a meeting between Mr Abbott and frontbenchers Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb the option of a fresh election.

    "I remember Joe saying: `For Christ's sake, don't do that. Pick one ... but don't have a fresh election.'," Mr Windsor said.

    by rishane on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:29 pm

  26. DavidWH @ 3661

    Because the Carr issue was poorly handled Labor managed to make a mountain out of a molehill. The issue will blow over quickly but it has again made it difficult for the PM to get clean air and re-connect with the Australian people.

    More important who is still leaking in Labor?

    Comrade, you are right again, but some here are in denial.

    The problem would not really have arisen if the PM had just got on with her job doing the allocation of portfolios and ignoring the Senate vacancy.

    The filling of the Senate vacancy was the business of the NSW branch of the ALP, not the Prime Minister or any other member of the Federal Parliament.

    by bemused on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:29 pm

  27. Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    Shows On and Bemused: Who is the new scapegoat for the failings of the Gillard Government? Chris Bowen? Robert McClelland? Kim Carr? Darren Cheeseman? ;)

    Find the failings first, not media beatups. Pretty formidable legislative achievements hardly count as ‘failings’.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:30 pm

  28. I hope none of our Melbourne friends are keen MTR listeners. about to head to the knackery.

    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120301/pdf/424r8m5x4mgyjp.pdf

    by sprocket_ on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:30 pm

  29. I dont understand the interest generated by this whole non-story about Carr.

    Me either lefty e. It’s a fart in the wind and will dissipate quickly enough. It is only of interest to those who spend their day sniffing around back passages.

    by Lynchpin on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:31 pm

  30. @TP/3669,

    There is more important things in life than Assange. Such as those who pay TAX and small business (which is the life of every nation).

    It was his website and himself got blame for.

    by zoidlord on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:31 pm

  31. More important who is still leaking in Labor?

    Leaking what?

    by Gary on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:32 pm

  32. Centre,

    She hasn’t denied it! She said, “Don’t believe everything you read in the papers.” Hardly a denial!

    The first question today should be: “Did you speak to Bob Carr on Monday?”

    Answer – Yes.

    Then, “Why did you speak to Bob Carr on Monday?”

    Answer – To get him to take the Senate spot and become FM.

    Two simple questions that require the simplest of answers – Is Gillard up to it???

    by Desert Fox on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:33 pm

  33. Gary I guess there were some senior people in the government who gave the PM total support last week and therefore expected support in return. Smith in particular would have expected his old job he gave up to Rudd to help unify the party in July 2012. Given that it seems to me that offering the job to Carr was always going to end up messy and particularly so if that was not discussed with Smith prior to the offer.

    Then of course we have the issue of ongoing internal leaking.

    Added to this is how the PM ansered the issue at first by giving the impression it was all incorrect only to subsequently find out there was some substance to the story.

    Messy all round.

    by DavidWH on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:33 pm

  34. I do not buy The Australian a) I wouldn’t waste the ten seconds or more it could take to buy the thing, and b) I don’t want to dirty my hands unnecessarily,

    but apparently that paper has contradicted its story from yesterday to today.

    Desert Fox, any explanations? No I didn’t think so!

    by Centre on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:33 pm

  35. The bootstrap continues, one new story added, plus a video, onthe front page of The LOLstralian on-line…

    PM WARNED OVER SHUFFLE
    11:10AM Ben Packham JULIA Gillard faces a further blow to her authority if she hands the foreign affairs portfolio to frontrunner Stephen Smith.

    * CARR: At odds with PM on ministry bid
    * DENNIS SHANAHAN: Offer denial another failed test
    * TROY BRAMSTON: Call Bob to Canberra
    * GREG SHERIDAN: Carr drive-by a loss for Gillard
    * DEFENCE: Disruption fear with Smith move
    * IN DEPTH: Labor in crisis
    * VIDEO: Smith confirms he opposed offer to Carr

    Benny Cemoli is alive and well. The homeopape is just churning itself out, hour by hour, printing made up stories about made up people.

    MR. ABBOTT: "My question is to the Prime Minister. I refer her to an article in this morning's on-line edition of The Australian..."

    by Bushfire Bill on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:35 pm

  36. Will the Govt go after the Tories today about their old mole, O’Chee?

    by Lynchpin on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:35 pm

  37. Added to this is how the PM ansered the issue at first by giving the impression it was all incorrect only to subsequently find out there was some substance to the story.

    Fill me in David, I really haven’t kept up with it, what is the “substance” you talk about?

    by Gary on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:36 pm

  38. Desert Fox, no one cares. It is a total non issue. Go and sniff elsewhere.

    by Lynchpin on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:37 pm

  39. It looks increasingly as if I was wrong in my prediction of just a tiny reshuffle.

    Still, any reshuffle, along with the accompanying requisite MSM kerfuffle, is better than Mr Abbott’s reshuffle.

    He has shuffled his deck just the once in the life of this government despite growing and obvious signs of incompetence, laziness and discord so prevalent in his shadow ministry. For some reason he prefers some of the talentless hacks inside the tent to some of the talentless youngsters outside the tent.

    Just what is the man of action afraid of?

    by Boerwar on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:38 pm

  40. The Australian = murdoch press. Overnight the leader of their UK branch a member of the Murdoch family no less resigned in disgrace from leadership of the paper in the UK. everything written by the murdoch press needs to be seen through this lense =a beat up, a fabrication, or a suiting the agenda of the murdoch family. simple reporting of facts long went out the door for the newscopr group. the break up of this newspaper empire in australia is long overdue.

    by the spectator on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:39 pm

  41. In your dreams both Desert Fox and DavidWH,

    You both must be so proud of the level your mob must scoop to discredit the PM.

    Astonishing :lol:

    You blokes had better concern yourselves with the many many policy divisions in the Coalition, they are a RABBLE!

    by Centre on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:39 pm

  42. I would be interested in whether anyone thinks there will be any change in substance in foreign policy with a new FM or just approach.

    by shellbell on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  43. @Boerwar/3688,

    Action.

    by zoidlord on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  44. Gary unless I am missing something there was an offer made to Carr so when the PM said the story was completely untrue that was not strictly correct. PM’s generally avoid making absolute statements.

    by DavidWH on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:40 pm

  45. The Phoenix bill has passed HoR, and one other.

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:41 pm

  46. DavidWH

    What was Carr offered and by whom? Please state your sources.

    by Lynchpin on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:42 pm

  47. I did get one prediction a bit right: that Mr Abbott would announce a dribble of virtually meaningless policies to demonstrate convincingly that he not Dr No.

    The bit about amending something so noble individuals such as Mr Bolt can stick it to the defenseless is a case in point.

    by Boerwar on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:43 pm

  48. 6m Simon Cullen ‏ @Simon_Cullen
    Tony Abbott is visiting a building supplies business in Canberra. He was heckled by a worker who said the visit was just a media stunt

    That’s not heckling, that’s just stating a fact.

    by Son of foro on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:43 pm

  49. Centre 3690 is a cop out statement.

    Your mob?
    Stoop so low?
    Discredit the PM?

    by DavidWH on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:43 pm

  50. Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Confessions is the ultimate apologist for Gillard.

    Well, he’s at least equalled his personal best. He famously claimed that Boer War had ‘an unhealthy obsession with Rudd’.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 1, 2012 at 12:43 pm

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